10-20-14

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Indian Cowboy


3-Unit Play. #478. Take Pittsburgh Steelers -3 over Houston Texans (Monday @ 8:30pm est)

What an ugly selection right? And yet these are the games the Steelers win. Our Future this year isalso on the Steelers and though their record is 3-3 they should be 4-2 as theyshould have never lost the Bucs game at home on the last second play.Regardless, you have a 3-3 team here looking to bounce-back from one of theworst losses of the year to a division rival at that. The Steelers have a wayof bouncing back. For example, after beating the Browns they fell short to theRavens by 20 points. They then bounced back by routing the Panthers on the road37-19 as small underdogs. They then fell short losing to Tampa Bay by a fieldgoal killing countless survivor pools and then bounced back beatingJacksonville on the road as a heavy public favorite. Now they face Houstonlooking to bounce-back after losing by 3 touchdowns to the Browns. Houston for asgood as this team is so far this year, they do not have much offensive prowessand struggle against strong defensive lines. Houston now has to face adverseconditions on the road against Pittsburgh which will be difficult as these arethe type of games that Pittsburgh wins. Note 63% of the public on the underdogon a Monday Night Football game which is never good for the underdog. Plus,Pittsburgh has been stout as a quality bounce-back this year, good public fade,difficult circumstances for a Houston offense that lacks production and aSteelers team that is likely going to be driven by their defense with efficientproduction from Big Ben. Look for an ugly 24-17 type of win here for the Steelers.

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL

2* Steelers

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BEN BURNS

BLUE CHIP TOTAL texans/steelers UNDER

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Fat Jack

Pitt/Hou Over

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Norm Hitzges

SINGLE PLAY

Pittsburgh -3

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Northcoast Sports

late phones

3.5* Pittsburgh -3

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PreferredPicks

4* Steelers

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Prediction Machine

HOU @ PIT Vegas Line 44.5 Projected Total 49.4 Over 58.1%

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Football Crusher
Houston Texans+3 over Pittsburgh Steelers
(System Record: 16-4, lost last 4 games)
Overall Record: 16-20-1

Rest of the Plays
Pittsburgh Steelers + Houston Texans OVER 44.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Tampa Bay Lightning -160 over Edmonton Oilers
(System Record: 5-1, lost last game)
Overall Record: 5-5

Rest of the Plays
Tampa Bay Lightning + Edmonton Oilers OVER 5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer Crusher
Tigre + Arsenal de Sarandi OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 650-22, won last game)
Overall Record: 650-540-98

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS
2014 WORLD SERIES PREVIEW
____________________________

San Francisco Giants Vs. Kansas City Royals

Schedule
•Game #1, Tuesday, at Kansas City, 8:07 PM EST
•Game #2, Wednesday, at Kansas City, 8:07 PM EST
•Game #3, Friday, at San Francisco, 8:07 PM EST
•Game #4, Saturday, at San Francisco, 8:07 PM EST
•x-Game #5, Sunday, Oct. 26, at San Francisco, 8:07 PM EST
•x-Game #6, Tuesday, Oct. 28, at Kansas City, 8:07 PM EST
•x-Game #7, Wednesday, Oct. 29, at Kansas City, 8:07 PM EST

Note: All Games On Fox, X-If Necessary
_____________________________________

Projected Lineups
•Giants: CF Gregor Blanco (.260, 5 HRs, 38 RBIs), 2B Joe Panik (.305, 1, 18), C Buster Posey (.311, 22, 89), 3B Pablo Sandoval (.279, 16, 73), RF Hunter Pence (.277, 20, 74), 1B Brandon Belt (.243, 12, 27), DH Michael Morse (.279, 16, 61), LF Travis Ishikawa (.252, 3, 18 with Pirates and Giants), SS Brandon Crawford (.246, 10, 69).

•Royals: SS Alcides Escobar (.285, 3, 50, 31 SBs), RF Nori Aoki (.285, 1, 43, 17 SBs), CF Lorenzo Cain (.301, 5, 53, 28 SBs), 1B Eric Hosmer (.270, 9, 58), DH Billy Butler (.271, 9, 66), LF Alex Gordon (.266, 19, 74, 12 SBs), C Salvador Perez (.260, 19, 70), 2B Omar Infante (.252, 6, 66), 3B Mike Moustakas (.212, 15, 54).

Projected Rotations
•Giants: LH Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA, 219 Ks, 217 1-3 IP), RH Jake Peavy (7-13, 3.73 with Boston and San Francisco), RH Tim Hudson (9-13, 3.57), RH Ryan Vogelsong (8-13, 4.00).

•Royals: RH James Shields (14-8, 3.21, 227 IP, 180 Ks), RH Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20, 159 Ks), LH Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71, 128 Ks), RH Jeremy Guthrie (13-11, 4.13, 202 2-3 IP, 124 Ks).

Relievers
•Giants: RH Santiago Casilla (3-3, 1.70, 19/23 saves), RH Sergio Romo (6-4, 3.72, 23/28 saves), LH Jeremy Affeldt (4-2, 2.28), LH Javier Lopez (1-1, 3.11), RH Jean Machi (7-1, 2.58, 2 saves), RH Hunter Strickland (1-0, 0.00 in 9 games), RH Yusmeiro Petit (5-5, 3.69 in 39 games, 12 starts), RH Tim Lincecum (12-9, 4.74, 1 save in 33 games, 26 starts).

•Royals: RH Greg Holland (1-3, 1.44, 46/48 saves), RH Wade Davis (9-2, 1.00), RH Kelvin Herrera (4-3, 1.41), LH Brandon Finnegan (0-1, 1.29 in 7 games), RH Jason Frasor (3-0, 1.53), LH Danny Duffy (9-12, 2.53 ERA, 113 Ks in 31 games, 25 starts), LH Tim Collins (0-3, 3.86 in 22 games).

Matchup Notes
-- This marks the first World Series in a full season in which both teams won fewer than 90 games. One of them will become the sixth wild card to win a championship. The only other time both World Series participants were wild cards was 2002, when the Angels beat Barry Bonds and the Giants in seven games.... These clubs have met only 12 times in interleague play. The only opponent the Giants have faced fewer times is Tampa Bay, with nine. Kansas City hasn’t played in San Francisco since 2005.

-- The Royals have won nine of the 12 meetings, including a three-game sweep at home this summer when they beat Bumgarner, Hudson and Lincecum, stealing seven bases in the finale. Shields pitched a four-hit shutout to beat Hudson on August 9th. Royals relievers didn’t allow a run in 6 1-3 innings. Gordon had two HRs and four RBIs in the series. Butler and Perez also homered for Kansas City.... Posey will be tested by a team that led the majors with 153 SBs during the regular season and had 13 more in the playoffs. The Giants allowed 107 SBs, tied for seventh-most in the majors. Posey threw out 17 of 76 potential base stealers.

-- Bumgarner did a good job shutting down the running game, allowing seven stolen bases on 17 attempts. Nine of the 10 caught stealing were started on pickoff throws by Bumgarner.... Hudson allowed 15 SBs on 18 attempts.... Pence is 0 for 11 in his career against Shields.... Butler (14-for-33 with 3 HRs), Gordon (10 for 28) and Escobar (9-for-22) have all thrived against Peavy.... Kansas City will have had five days off before the World Series opener, San Francisco four.... The Royals have home-field advantage thanks to the American League’s victory in the All-Star game. The team with home-field advantage has won the last five World Series.

Big Picture
•Giants: After winning the World Series in 2010 and 2012, the Giants (88-74) are hoping to make every other year a pattern. San Francisco missed the playoffs following each of those championships but got back this season as the second NL wild card.... The Giants advanced by beating Pittsburgh 8-0 in the wild-card game behind a four-hitter from Bumgarner and a grand slam by Crawford.... San Francisco then knocked off NL East champion Washington in four games in the NLDS, winning three one-run games and an 18-inning marathon during a low-scoring series that featured only 18 runs.... After that, the Giants eliminated the Cardinals in the NLCS, winning it in Game #5 on Ishikawa’s three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth inning. It was the first homer to end an NLCS and the first to send the Giants to the World Series since perhaps the most famous drive in baseball history — Bobby Thomson’s “Shot Heard ‘Round the World” in a 1951 playoff vs. the Brooklyn Dodgers.

The Giants went 243 plate appearances without a home run before hitting three in the clincher.... Before the home run barrage, San Francisco had been the masters of small ball, with only 10 of its previous 22 runs scoring on hits.... The Giants have won 15 of their past 17 postseason games under manager Bruce Bochy.... After relying on stellar pitching during their last two title runs, the Giants are more balanced this year, finishing fifth in the NL in runs and seventh in ERA. But the starting pitching stepped up in the playoffs, with a 2.40 ERA through 10 games. Petit has been a valuable long man out of the bullpen, too.

Workhorse RHP Matt Cain made just 15 starts this year because of a season-ending elbow injury, and two-time Cy Young Award winner Lincecum was removed from the rotation. He has not pitched in the postseason.... Bumgarner is a threat at the plate, batting .258 with four homers, 15 RBIs and a .470 slugging percentage this season. The last pitcher to have more RBIs in a season was Mike Hampton with 16 in 2001 for Colorado.... Hudson will pitch in his first World Series at age 39 after being on teams that lost seven times in the Division Series.... Morse has just six at-bats since August 31st because of a strained oblique, but he hit a game-tying, pinch-hit homer in the eighth inning of the NLCS clincher and could be used as the DH in Kansas City.

•Royals: After ending a 29-year postseason drought, the Royals (89-73) continued their winning ways with a perfect run through the playoffs to capture their third pennant. They rallied twice in the AL wild-card game for a thrilling 9-8 victory in 12 innings against Oakland, then won their first two ALDS games on the road against the Los Angeles Angels in 11 innings on homers by Moustakas and Hosmer. That made Kansas City the first major league team to win three straight extra-inning playoff games. The series clincher was much easier, an 8-3 victory at home for a three-game sweep of the Angels, who had the best regular- season record in the majors at 98-64.

The Royals won four close games against Baltimore to sweep the ALCS, making them the first team to open a postseason 8-0.... The Royals also took the last three games of the 1985 World Series against St. Louis, so they’ve won 11 consecutive postseason games — in a span of three decades. That’s one victory short of the major league record.... Kansas City wins with solid starting pitching, a nasty bullpen, daring on the basepaths and sensational defense. Baseball fundamentals. During the regular season, KC ranked last in the majors with 95 home runs but first with 153 steals. Then the Royals powered up in the playoffs, too. They hit eight home runs, including four by Moustakas and two by Hosmer.... Finnegan pitched for TCU in the College World Series in June.

The speedy Royals swiped seven bags in the wild-card game against the A’s, including one that helped set up the tying run in the 12th inning. Cain made a series of spectacular defensive plays throughout the playoffs and took home MVP honors after batting .533 with five runs in the ALCS. Gordon, Aoki, Moustakas, Escobar and reserve outfielder Jarrod Dyson have also turned in defensive gems. Throw in the clutch homers by Hosmer and Moustakas, and the Royals certainly have some serious October mojo going under Ned Yost, the first manager in major league history to win his first eight postseason games.

Watch For
•Lights Out Late. Both teams rely on stingy bullpens, so runs could be hard to come by in the late innings. Holland has six saves and a 1.13 ERA in eight postseason games. Davis is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA, and Herrera has a 1.08 mark in seven appearances. All three have struck out 10. Bochy’s expert use of the bullpen has been the biggest reason for San Francisco’s remarkable October success. Affeldt has made 18 straight scoreless appearances in the postseason, Casilla 17 and Lopez 15. Affeldt and Lopez have been particularly tough on left-handed hitters, and Bochy will have to decide how to deploy them against Hosmer and Gordon, who have the dangerous Butler batting right-handed between them.

•Big Game Bum. Bumgarner, 25, has stepped forward as the staff ace. The NLCS MVP is 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 11 postseason games, matching Bob Gibson and Mike Mussina as the only pitchers with five straight postseason starts of at least seven innings with seven or fewer baserunners allowed. Bumgarner has thrown 15 scoreless innings in World Series play, winning both his starts while striking out 14 and yielding five total hits. He went eight innings in the NLCS clincher and figures to get the ball in Game 1 on regular rest.

•Big Game James. Shields is the rare Royals player with World Series experience. He pitched 5 2-3 scoreless innings for Tampa Bay in a 2008 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. Kansas City traded a bevy of top prospects, including outfielder Wil Myers, to the Rays to acquire Shields before the 2013 season. He went 1-0 with a 5.63 ERA in three playoff starts this month and is 3-4 with a 5.19 mark in nine career postseason outings.

•Potent Panda. Sandoval has keyed San Francisco’s postseason offense since 2010, reaching base safely in a team-record 23 straight games. Kung Fu Panda is batting .375 with six homers and 14 RBIs during that span. That includes his three-homer performance in the 2012 World Series opener against Detroit on the way to MVP honors.

•Managing Expectations. Looking for his third championship in five years, the understated Bochy is building a Hall of Fame resume. Over in the other dugout, Yost was once fired by Milwaukee in the middle of a September playoff race, and some of his curious decisions have exasperated Royals fans. Yost made all the right moves against Baltimore, though, and now he’s the toast of the town. With both bullpens stacked and the benches often in play, this could become an interesting chess match.

•Karma, Baby. The Royals believe this is finally their time. They were counted out for much of the season, languishing below .500 on July 22nd. They were counted out again in the wild-card game before two late comebacks. But nobody during this decade has owned October like the Giants — every other year, at least.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MNF REPORT
MONDAY OCTOBER, 20th 2014

***** National Football League Information - Week #7 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
__________________________________________________ ____________

#477 HOUSTON @ #478 PITTSBURGH
TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Steelers -3, Total: 44.5

Two of the league's top rushers go head-to-head when Le'Veon Bell and the Pittsburgh Steelers play host to Arian Foster and the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football in a matchup of .500 teams. Bell ranks second in the league in rushing for the Steelers, who are plagued by a defense surrendering big plays both through the air and on the ground. Foster is third in the National Football League for the Texans, who are in the midst of a two-game skid.

The Pittsburgh offense will have to deal with J.J. Watt, Houston's star defensive end who leads the NFL with 20 hits on quarterbacks this season and has four of his team's 10 sacks. After winning just twice during the 2013 campaign, Houston already has three victories but have since surrendered 694 yards through the air dropping back-to-back decisions to Dallas (17-20) and Indianapolis (28-33). Aside from Watt, Houston is struggling ranked 27th in the league in total defense.

•ABOUT THE TEXANS (3-3 SU, 4-2-0 ATS): Houston hopes to get back the services of rookie linebacker and No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney following knee surgery to bolster its pass defense. It could reap instant rewards as Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 11 times in the past three games. Offensively, the Texans have had their problems through the air as Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown six interceptions and just three touchdowns in his past four games. Fitzpatrick ranks last in the AFC with a 58.9 passer rating in the first quarter. That number drops to 21.8 over the past four games after he missed on all four of his pass attempts last week.

•ABOUT THE STEELERS (3-3 SU, 2-4-0 ATS): Pittsburgh hopes the beginning of a three-game homestand will remedy a shaky start which finds them sitting in the AFC North cellar. The Steelers have alternated wins and losses since starting the season with a 30-27 victory over Cleveland but lost to the Browns last Sunday as Roethlisberger recorded a season-low 64.4 rating and threw his first interception in the last four games. He had a 112.3 rating and threw for six touchdowns over the previous three games. Bell remains consistent, averaging 5.2 yards a carry, and star receiver Antonio Brown is just three yards behind Green Bay's Jordy Nelson for the league lead.

•PREGAME NOTES: Roethlisberger completed just half of his 42 passes for 228 yards against the Browns and his interception led to a Cleveland touchdown.... Pittsburgh's offense ranks 31st in the red zone.... Houston WR Andre Johnson needs 10 receiving yards to pass Steve Largent (13,089) for 14th place in NFL history.... Roethlisberger is 9-0 against the spread as a favorite of more than 3 points in games off a straight-up double-digit loss versus an opponent following a straight-up loss. The Steelers are also 25-5 SU at home on Monday nights (8-0 at Heinz Field), including 6-0 ATS when not favored by 6 or more points.

•KEY STATS
--HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 16.3, OPPONENT 27.6.

--HOUSTON is 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 19.2, OPPONENT 18.6.

--HOUSTON is 5-18 against the 1rst half line (-14.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 6.1, OPPONENT 15.2.

--HOUSTON is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 3.7, OPPONENT 16.4.

--HOUSTON is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 7.3, OPPONENT 14.6.

--PITTSBURGH is 47-20 ATS (+25.0 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.2, OPPONENT 19.4.

--PITTSBURGH is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.9, OPPONENT 20.1.

--PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 27.3, OPPONENT 18.8.

--PITTSBURGH is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 19.2, OPPONENT 16.9.

--PITTSBURGH is 25-8 against the 1rst half line (+14.0 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 12.6, OPPONENT 7.0.

--PITTSBURGH is 19-6 against the 1rst half line (+12.4 Units) off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 12.2, OPPONENT 6.2.

--PITTSBURGH is 34-15 against the 1rst half line (+17.5 Units) after allowing 30 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 13.1, OPPONENT 7.6.

--PITTSBURGH is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 8.9, OPPONENT 3.9.

•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE TOMLIN is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.8, OPPONENT 13.6.

--MIKE TOMLIN is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) off a loss against a division rival as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 26.9, OPPONENT 22.8.

--MIKE TOMLIN is 11-2 against the 1rst half line (+8.8 Units) in a home game where the first half total is between 21.5 and 22.5 as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 17.2, OPPONENT 7.2.

--MIKE TOMLIN is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 11.2, OPPONENT 2.7.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Favorites are on a 3-0 ATS run since 2005. The Steelers rolled 38-17 as 6.5-point favorites in the last meeting in Pittsburgh (2008). In the last matchup (2011), the Texans won 17-10 as 4-point home favorites. That game stayed way under a 46.5-point total. Under’s are 3-1 since 2002, with the losing side scoring 10 or fewer points each time.

--PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992.
--3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--PITTSBURGH is 2-2 versus the first half line when playing against HOUSTON since 1992.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--HOU is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
--HOU is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in Week #7.
--Over is 5-1 in HOU last 6 games in Week #7.

--PIT is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
--PIT is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week #7.
--Under is 5-1 in PIT last 6 Monday games.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 41 times, while the underdog covered the spread 33 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 50 times, while the underdog won straight up 26 times. 61 games went over the total, while 33 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 68 times, while the underdog covered first half line 62 times. *No EDGE. 79 games went over first half total, while 75 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (PITTSBURGH) - good passing team (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.) against a poor passing defense (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.), after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points.
(62-30 over the last 10 seasons.) (67.4%, +29.7 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.7, Opponent 9 (Average first half point differential = +5.8)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-13).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (31-18).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (153-104).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pair of 3-3 clubs battle on MNF

HOUSTON TEXANS (3-3) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-3)
Line & Total: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 44.5
Opening Line & Total: Pittsburgh -3.5, Total: 44.5

Both the Texans and the Steelers will be looking to get over the .500 mark when they meet at Heinz Field on Monday night.

Houston nearly came away with a victory over the Colts in Week 6, losing 33-28 as 2.5-point home underdogs. Pittsburgh was blown out 31-10 in Cleveland as 2.5-point road favorites, which continued its season long pattern of a win followed by a loss. The Texans and Steelers haven’t met since 2011, when Houston won-and-covered 17-10 at home. These teams have split victories both SU and ATS since the Texans entered the league in 2002, with three of their four meetings finishing Under the total. The Texans will lean on RB Arian Foster in this game, as QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been far too turnover-prone as of late. Houston is 15-4 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards per game in their previous three contests since 1992. Pittsburgh, however, is 6-0 ATS after having lost two of its previous three games over the past two years. DE Jadeveon Clowney (knee) could return for the Texans on Monday.

Houston got off to a great start this season, but has now lost two straight games and three of the past four. The play of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (1,268 pass yards, 6 TD, 6 INT) is the biggest issue for this team struggling to gain yards through the air when it needs to. Fitzpatrick has had just one game where he’s thrown for more than one touchdown and it was against the lowly Raiders in Week 2. Luckily for the Texans, RB Arian Foster (513 rush yards, 5 TD) has been performing at the same elite level that people expect from him. Foster was dominant in the Texans’ loss to the Colts, running for 109 yards and two touchdowns on just 20 carries. Houston will do whatever it can to make sure Foster is getting the touches he needs against the Steelers. The reality for this team, however, is that its scoring won’t matter unless it can start defending better. This team is getting shredded on a week-to-week basis, allowing 271.5 passing YPG (28th in NFL) and 125.7 rushing YPG (22nd in NFL).

The Steelers have lost two of their past three games and will be looking to turn things around after being blown out 31-10 in Cleveland. QB Ben Roethlisberger (1,593 pass yards, 8 TD, 3 INT) really struggled against the Browns, completing just 50% of his passes for 228 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He’ll look to get things going again versus this poor Texans passing defense. RB Le’Veon Bell (542 rush yards, 1 TD) has been outstanding out of the backfield for this team. He’s second in the NFL with 793 yards from scrimmage, but the Steelers will need to do a better job of feeding him when they reach the red zone. He’s getting them all the way down the field, but they’re abandoning him when they need him most. Pittsburgh’s defense has been solid this season, allowing 225.8 passing YPG (10th in NFL) and 111.2 rushing YPG (15th in NFL). This unit doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses and will be putting pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick right from the jump.