10-21-14

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World Series Cheat Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Game 1: San Francisco at Kansas City, Tuesday October 21
Game 2: San Francisco at Kansas City, Wednesday October 22
Game 3: Kansas City at San Francisco, Friday October 24
Game 4: Kansas City at San Francisco, Saturday October 25
*Game 5: Kansas City at San Francisco, Sunday October 26
*Game 6: San Francisco at Kansas City, Tuesday October 28
*Game 7: San Francisco at Kansas City, Wednesday October 29
*- If necessary --- All games televised on FOX

Overall records:
San Francisco: 96-76 overall, 49-37 home, 47-39 away
Kansas City: 97-73 overall, 46-39 home, 51-34 away

Playoff records:
San Francisco: 8-2 overall, 4-1 home, 4-1 away
Kansas City: 8-0 overall, 4-0 home, 4-0 away

How they got here:
The Giants continued their streak of advancing to the World Series in even years in this decade. San Francisco hoisted the World Series trophy in 2010 and 2012, losing just once in those two series against Texas and Detroit, respectively. Madison Bumgarner tossed a gem in the Wild Card victory at Pittsburgh, 8-0 to advance to the NLDS against Washington.

After stealing a pair of one-run wins in Washington, the Giants finished off Nationals in four games of the NLDS, as all four contests finished ‘under’ the total. In fact, San Francisco scored just nine runs in the entire series, but Bruce Bochy’s team extended its playoff winning streak to 10 before losing in Game 3 to Washington.

The Giants eliminated the Cardinals in the NLCS for the second time in three seasons, but San Francisco didn’t need to overcome a 3-1 deficit like it did in 2012. Bumgarner blanked the Cardinals as a road underdog in Game 1 at St. Louis, but the Redbirds used a walk-off homer in Game 2 to even the series at 1-1 heading back to San Francisco.

Back at AT&T Park, the Giants took all three home games from the Cardinals, including a dramatic three-run walk-off homer from Travis Ishikawa in Game 5 to stun St. Louis, 6-3. San Francisco owns an incredible 15-2 record in its past 17 playoff games, while winning 10 of its previous 13 postseason games on the highway.

The Royals were six outs away from elimination in the Wild Card game against the Athletics, as Kansas City trailed, 7-3. The rally began in the eighth inning with three runs, then the Royals tied things up in the ninth inning with a sacrifice fly. After several failed attempts to bring in the winning run from third base in extra innings, the Royals scored two runs in the 12th inning to stun the A’s, 9-8 and move to the ALDS.

The task wasn’t easy against the Angels, who owned the best record in baseball. However, Kansas City used the momentum from the Wild Card win to knock off Los Angeles twice on the road in extra innings as heavy underdogs. The Royals returned home and finished off the Angels in a three-game sweep, to improve to 10-2 since beating the Tigers in late September.

Detroit won the AL Central but was quickly knocked out by Baltimore in the ALDS, as the Royals had no fear against the AL East champions. Kansas City swept Baltimore in the ALCS, capped off by a pair of 2-1 victories at Kauffman Stadium to win the franchise’s first pennant since 1985. The Royals set a Major League Baseball record by winning their eighth straight game to begin the postseason.

Previous matchup:
The Royals swept the Giants in a three-game set at Kauffman Stadium in August, as no one would have ever expected these teams to meet in the Fall Classic. In the series opener, the Royals jumped on Bumgarner for two early runs before the Giants would even things up at 2-2. Kansas City plated two runs in the sixth inning to hold off San Francisco, 4-2 as -110 home favorites.

James Shields shut out the Giants in Game 2 by a 5-0 count, tossing a complete-game four-hitter. Tim Hudson allowed six hits and three earned runs for the Giants, as the Royals broke the game open with four runs in the seventh inning to cash as -145 home favorites.

Kansas City brought out the brooms in the series finale, 7-4, as the Royals jumped out to a 7-1 lead before the Giants plated three runs in the seventh inning. The Royals took home the money as -155 favorites thanks to 6.2 solid innings from southpaw Danny Duffy. Kansas City’s offense was lifted by Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon, who each drove in a pair of runs, as the Royals chased Tim Lincecum in the fourth inning with six runs on seven hits.

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Today's MLB Picks

San Francisco at Kansas City

The Royals host Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday night and come into the contest with a 5-0 record in the last 5 games versus the Giants at home. Kansas City is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 21 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST (10/18)

Game 901-902: San Francisco at Kansas City (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 12.289; Kansas City (Shields) 13.872 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Under

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World Series Betting Preview: Giants at Royals

San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals (-101, 6.5)

The red-hot Kansas City Royals are in the World Series for the first time since 1985 and they open play Tuesday when they host the National League Champion San Francisco Giants. The American League Champion Royals are a perfect 8-0 this postseason and took the wild-card route to the pennant. San Francisco is in the World Series for the third time in five seasons and also began this postseason journey as a wild-card entrant.

National League Championship Series MVP Madison Bumgarner will be on the mound for the Giants in Game 1 and the standout left-hander lost to the Royals during the regular season. James Shields starts for Kansas City and the right-hander pitched a four-hit shutout against San Francisco in August. Both teams feature strong bullpens and have a knack for producing unlikely heroes – such as Giants’ left fielder Travis Ishikawa hitting a walk-off three-run homer to end the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, FOX

LINE HISTORY: The Royals opened as slight +100 home underdogs have been bet to -107 and are currently sitting at -101. The total is set at 6.5.

INJURY REPORT: Kansas City - P Yorando Ventura (day-to-day, shoulder).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for baseball with clear skies and temperatures in the low 60s at the start of Game 1. There will be a slight five mile per hour wind blowing in from right field.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We set the series price at -105 each, and we have a 4 Game sweep at +500, but can the Royals continue their unbeaten record in this year's playoffs? With Bumgarner on the mound for the Giants, they're favored by 1.5 runs and are currently getting 51 percent of the action, plus 63 percent of moneyline wagers. Even with both teams aces on the mound for Game 1, the Over 6.5 run total is getting 59 percent of the action so far." Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "I'm leaning under the total in the opener of this series. Both teams are more than comfortable playing small ball and with two elite starters on the mound I don't expect anything to come easy on Tuesday night. The oddsmakers are on point with a total of 6.5 and I hate playing a juiced out number - the only reason it's only a lean at this point. The side is a toss-up in Game 1 in my opinion, better opportunities lie ahead in the series in that regard." Covers Expert Sean Murphy

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (2-1, 1.42 ERA) vs. Royals RH James Shields (1-0, 5.63)

Bumgarner has pitched at least seven innings in each of his four postseason starts and is holding opposing batters to a .170 average. In the regular-season loss to the Royals, he gave up four runs (three earned) and seven hits in eight innings as Kansas City designated hitter Billy Butler had a homer and three RBIs. Bumgarner is 2-0 and hasn’t allowed a run in 15 World Series innings, blanking Texas on three hits in eight innings in 2010 and Detroit on two hits over seven innings in 2012.

Shields has struggled in the postseason, giving up 21 hits in 16 innings as opponents have touched him up for a .309 average. He was at the top of his game in the regular-season outing against San Francisco, striking out five and walking one while pitching his ninth career shutout. Shields won his lone career World Series start, beating Philadelphia in 2008 when he gave up seven hits in 5 2/3 shutout innings as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 6-0 in their last six World Series Games.
* Royals are 9-0 in their last nine games as an underdog.
* Over is 4-0 in the Giants last four playoff games.
* Over is 4-0 in Shields' last four starts overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Just under 61 percent of wagers are backing the Kansas City Royals at -101.

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Tony George - Series Royals

Bottom line is this: Bullpen and defense. Kansas City has both, and both are better, and momentum galore, and I do not think the long layoff will completely take that out of the equation. It simplest terms if KC has a 1 or 2 run lead in any game past the 7th inning, and you have to go through Herrera, Davis and Holland as an opposing team to win, I would estimate your chances of winning at 20% or less in that scenario. I predicted the Royals against Oakland for the 1 game play-in, and series winners in both the LA and Baltimore series, catching them at +120 in their 4 game sweep of the O’s. Not rocking the boat here gents!

This is not to say San Fran is defenseless here and their experience is a plus, but let’s also bear in mind that KC is better at stealing bases, and manufacturing runs than any team in recent memory. They hold home field advantage which is huge in the post season, coupled with the fact they are a rock solid road team, and not to mention they swept San Fran 3-0 in their series this year. Kansas City, although I live here and am a long suffering fan, has put together a dominant post season and have destiny on their side. If 8-0 against the A’s, Angels and O’s did not convince you, then I do not know what would!


Series 2 Prop Wagers

Kansas City OVER 6 Stolen bases in the series at -110

Kansas City Bullpen LOWEST ERA in the series -110

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Topshelfpicks

Raiderman - World Series - Game 1 - Royals +102

This was a tough call as Shields is typically not at his best at home while Bumgarner is absolutely terrific outside the state of California. Neither team has exceptionally strong offenses, both play good D. But how can you go against the home dog in KC? This is a team that has continually found ways to win tough games, with the bats, with the D, and with the bullpen. They took down the two best teams in the AL. SF's margin for error is very small here. So my play for Game 1 is on KC.

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Topshelfpicks

Carson K - Series Royals

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Arkansas State at UL-Lafayette

The Red Wolves head to UL-Lafayette tonight and come into the contest with a 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Arkansas State is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wolves favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 21 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 101-102: Arkansas State at UL-Lafayette (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 85.772; UL-Lafayette 79.357 Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 6 1/2; 52 Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 2 1/2; 54 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-2 1/2); Under

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StatFox Super Situations

CFB | FLA ATLANTIC at MARSHALL
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (MARSHALL) dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more in 3 straight games
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

CFB | AKRON at BALL ST
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (BALL ST) average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games
64-43 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.8% | 0.0 units )

CFB | BOSTON COLLEGE at WAKE FOREST
Play Against - Underdogs of 6 to 11.5 points vs. the first half line (WAKE FOREST) outrushed by their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining <=2 and allowing >=6 rushing yards/attempt
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS
2014 WORLD SERIES PREVIEW
____________________________

San Francisco Giants Vs. Kansas City Royals

Schedule
•Game #1, Tuesday, at Kansas City, 8:07 PM EST
•Game #2, Wednesday, at Kansas City, 8:07 PM EST
•Game #3, Friday, at San Francisco, 8:07 PM EST
•Game #4, Saturday, at San Francisco, 8:07 PM EST
•x-Game #5, Sunday, Oct. 26, at San Francisco, 8:07 PM EST
•x-Game #6, Tuesday, Oct. 28, at Kansas City, 8:07 PM EST
•x-Game #7, Wednesday, Oct. 29, at Kansas City, 8:07 PM EST

Note: All Games On Fox, X-If Necessary
_____________________________________

Projected Lineups
•Giants: CF Gregor Blanco (.260, 5 HRs, 38 RBIs), 2B Joe Panik (.305, 1, 18), C Buster Posey (.311, 22, 89), 3B Pablo Sandoval (.279, 16, 73), RF Hunter Pence (.277, 20, 74), 1B Brandon Belt (.243, 12, 27), DH Michael Morse (.279, 16, 61), LF Travis Ishikawa (.252, 3, 18 with Pirates and Giants), SS Brandon Crawford (.246, 10, 69).

•Royals: SS Alcides Escobar (.285, 3, 50, 31 SBs), RF Nori Aoki (.285, 1, 43, 17 SBs), CF Lorenzo Cain (.301, 5, 53, 28 SBs), 1B Eric Hosmer (.270, 9, 58), DH Billy Butler (.271, 9, 66), LF Alex Gordon (.266, 19, 74, 12 SBs), C Salvador Perez (.260, 19, 70), 2B Omar Infante (.252, 6, 66), 3B Mike Moustakas (.212, 15, 54).

Projected Rotations
•Giants: LH Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA, 219 Ks, 217 1-3 IP), RH Jake Peavy (7-13, 3.73 with Boston and San Francisco), RH Tim Hudson (9-13, 3.57), RH Ryan Vogelsong (8-13, 4.00).

•Royals: RH James Shields (14-8, 3.21, 227 IP, 180 Ks), RH Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20, 159 Ks), LH Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71, 128 Ks), RH Jeremy Guthrie (13-11, 4.13, 202 2-3 IP, 124 Ks).

Relievers
•Giants: RH Santiago Casilla (3-3, 1.70, 19/23 saves), RH Sergio Romo (6-4, 3.72, 23/28 saves), LH Jeremy Affeldt (4-2, 2.28), LH Javier Lopez (1-1, 3.11), RH Jean Machi (7-1, 2.58, 2 saves), RH Hunter Strickland (1-0, 0.00 in 9 games), RH Yusmeiro Petit (5-5, 3.69 in 39 games, 12 starts), RH Tim Lincecum (12-9, 4.74, 1 save in 33 games, 26 starts).

•Royals: RH Greg Holland (1-3, 1.44, 46/48 saves), RH Wade Davis (9-2, 1.00), RH Kelvin Herrera (4-3, 1.41), LH Brandon Finnegan (0-1, 1.29 in 7 games), RH Jason Frasor (3-0, 1.53), LH Danny Duffy (9-12, 2.53 ERA, 113 Ks in 31 games, 25 starts), LH Tim Collins (0-3, 3.86 in 22 games).

Matchup Notes
-- This marks the first World Series in a full season in which both teams won fewer than 90 games. One of them will become the sixth wild card to win a championship. The only other time both World Series participants were wild cards was 2002, when the Angels beat Barry Bonds and the Giants in seven games.... These clubs have met only 12 times in interleague play. The only opponent the Giants have faced fewer times is Tampa Bay, with nine. Kansas City hasn’t played in San Francisco since 2005.

-- The Royals have won nine of the 12 meetings, including a three-game sweep at home this summer when they beat Bumgarner, Hudson and Lincecum, stealing seven bases in the finale. Shields pitched a four-hit shutout to beat Hudson on August 9th. Royals relievers didn’t allow a run in 6 1-3 innings. Gordon had two HRs and four RBIs in the series. Butler and Perez also homered for Kansas City.... Posey will be tested by a team that led the majors with 153 SBs during the regular season and had 13 more in the playoffs. The Giants allowed 107 SBs, tied for seventh-most in the majors. Posey threw out 17 of 76 potential base stealers.

-- Bumgarner did a good job shutting down the running game, allowing seven stolen bases on 17 attempts. Nine of the 10 caught stealing were started on pickoff throws by Bumgarner.... Hudson allowed 15 SBs on 18 attempts.... Pence is 0 for 11 in his career against Shields.... Butler (14-for-33 with 3 HRs), Gordon (10 for 28) and Escobar (9-for-22) have all thrived against Peavy.... Kansas City will have had five days off before the World Series opener, San Francisco four.... The Royals have home-field advantage thanks to the American League’s victory in the All-Star game. The team with home-field advantage has won the last five World Series.

Big Picture
•Giants: After winning the World Series in 2010 and 2012, the Giants (88-74) are hoping to make every other year a pattern. San Francisco missed the playoffs following each of those championships but got back this season as the second NL wild card.... The Giants advanced by beating Pittsburgh 8-0 in the wild-card game behind a four-hitter from Bumgarner and a grand slam by Crawford.... San Francisco then knocked off NL East champion Washington in four games in the NLDS, winning three one-run games and an 18-inning marathon during a low-scoring series that featured only 18 runs.... After that, the Giants eliminated the Cardinals in the NLCS, winning it in Game #5 on Ishikawa’s three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth inning. It was the first homer to end an NLCS and the first to send the Giants to the World Series since perhaps the most famous drive in baseball history — Bobby Thomson’s “Shot Heard ‘Round the World” in a 1951 playoff vs. the Brooklyn Dodgers.

The Giants went 243 plate appearances without a home run before hitting three in the clincher.... Before the home run barrage, San Francisco had been the masters of small ball, with only 10 of its previous 22 runs scoring on hits.... The Giants have won 15 of their past 17 postseason games under manager Bruce Bochy.... After relying on stellar pitching during their last two title runs, the Giants are more balanced this year, finishing fifth in the NL in runs and seventh in ERA. But the starting pitching stepped up in the playoffs, with a 2.40 ERA through 10 games. Petit has been a valuable long man out of the bullpen, too.

Workhorse RHP Matt Cain made just 15 starts this year because of a season-ending elbow injury, and two-time Cy Young Award winner Lincecum was removed from the rotation. He has not pitched in the postseason.... Bumgarner is a threat at the plate, batting .258 with four homers, 15 RBIs and a .470 slugging percentage this season. The last pitcher to have more RBIs in a season was Mike Hampton with 16 in 2001 for Colorado.... Hudson will pitch in his first World Series at age 39 after being on teams that lost seven times in the Division Series.... Morse has just six at-bats since August 31st because of a strained oblique, but he hit a game-tying, pinch-hit homer in the eighth inning of the NLCS clincher and could be used as the DH in Kansas City.

•Royals: After ending a 29-year postseason drought, the Royals (89-73) continued their winning ways with a perfect run through the playoffs to capture their third pennant. They rallied twice in the AL wild-card game for a thrilling 9-8 victory in 12 innings against Oakland, then won their first two ALDS games on the road against the Los Angeles Angels in 11 innings on homers by Moustakas and Hosmer. That made Kansas City the first major league team to win three straight extra-inning playoff games. The series clincher was much easier, an 8-3 victory at home for a three-game sweep of the Angels, who had the best regular- season record in the majors at 98-64.

The Royals won four close games against Baltimore to sweep the ALCS, making them the first team to open a postseason 8-0.... The Royals also took the last three games of the 1985 World Series against St. Louis, so they’ve won 11 consecutive postseason games — in a span of three decades. That’s one victory short of the major league record.... Kansas City wins with solid starting pitching, a nasty bullpen, daring on the basepaths and sensational defense. Baseball fundamentals. During the regular season, KC ranked last in the majors with 95 home runs but first with 153 steals. Then the Royals powered up in the playoffs, too. They hit eight home runs, including four by Moustakas and two by Hosmer.... Finnegan pitched for TCU in the College World Series in June.

The speedy Royals swiped seven bags in the wild-card game against the A’s, including one that helped set up the tying run in the 12th inning. Cain made a series of spectacular defensive plays throughout the playoffs and took home MVP honors after batting .533 with five runs in the ALCS. Gordon, Aoki, Moustakas, Escobar and reserve outfielder Jarrod Dyson have also turned in defensive gems. Throw in the clutch homers by Hosmer and Moustakas, and the Royals certainly have some serious October mojo going under Ned Yost, the first manager in major league history to win his first eight postseason games.

Watch For
•Lights Out Late. Both teams rely on stingy bullpens, so runs could be hard to come by in the late innings. Holland has six saves and a 1.13 ERA in eight postseason games. Davis is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA, and Herrera has a 1.08 mark in seven appearances. All three have struck out 10. Bochy’s expert use of the bullpen has been the biggest reason for San Francisco’s remarkable October success. Affeldt has made 18 straight scoreless appearances in the postseason, Casilla 17 and Lopez 15. Affeldt and Lopez have been particularly tough on left-handed hitters, and Bochy will have to decide how to deploy them against Hosmer and Gordon, who have the dangerous Butler batting right-handed between them.

•Big Game Bum. Bumgarner, 25, has stepped forward as the staff ace. The NLCS MVP is 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 11 postseason games, matching Bob Gibson and Mike Mussina as the only pitchers with five straight postseason starts of at least seven innings with seven or fewer baserunners allowed. Bumgarner has thrown 15 scoreless innings in World Series play, winning both his starts while striking out 14 and yielding five total hits. He went eight innings in the NLCS clincher and figures to get the ball in Game 1 on regular rest.

•Big Game James. Shields is the rare Royals player with World Series experience. He pitched 5 2-3 scoreless innings for Tampa Bay in a 2008 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. Kansas City traded a bevy of top prospects, including outfielder Wil Myers, to the Rays to acquire Shields before the 2013 season. He went 1-0 with a 5.63 ERA in three playoff starts this month and is 3-4 with a 5.19 mark in nine career postseason outings.

•Potent Panda. Sandoval has keyed San Francisco’s postseason offense since 2010, reaching base safely in a team-record 23 straight games. Kung Fu Panda is batting .375 with six homers and 14 RBIs during that span. That includes his three-homer performance in the 2012 World Series opener against Detroit on the way to MVP honors.

•Managing Expectations. Looking for his third championship in five years, the understated Bochy is building a Hall of Fame resume. Over in the other dugout, Yost was once fired by Milwaukee in the middle of a September playoff race, and some of his curious decisions have exasperated Royals fans. Yost made all the right moves against Baltimore, though, and now he’s the toast of the town. With both bullpens stacked and the benches often in play, this could become an interesting chess match.

•Karma, Baby. The Royals believe this is finally their time. They were counted out for much of the season, languishing below .500 on July 22nd. They were counted out again in the wild-card game before two late comebacks. But nobody during this decade has owned October like the Giants — every other year, at least.

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | SAN FRANCISCO at KANSAS CITY
Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (KANSAS CITY) very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), on a good fielding streak, 15 straight games with one or less errors
108-45 since 1997. ( 70.6% | 46.1 units )
20-12 this year. ( 62.5% | 3.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | SAN FRANCISCO at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 72-39 (+32.6 Units) against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.2) , OPPONENT (3.2)

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Texans (+3) on Monday and likes the Royals (game 1 and series) on Tuesday.

The deficit 1007 sirignanos.

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

Islanders -160

Predators -160

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Baseball Crusher
San Francisco Giants -108 over KC Royals
(System Record: 109-3, lost last 5 games)
Overall Record: 109-81

Rest of the Plays
San Francisco Giants + KC Royals UNDER 6.5

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Football Crusher
Louisiana Lafayette +2.5 over Arkansas State
(System Record: 16-4, lost last 5 games)
Overall Record: 16-21-1

Rest of the Plays
Arkansas State + Louisiana Lafayette OVER 54