10-23-14

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Topshelfpicks

NHL

Red Wings -110

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Real Swoop

1* - Miami -2

2* - Broncos -2/Over 45 Teaser

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Teddy Covers

Big Ticket

San Diego Chargers

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Betting as a Business

LATE PHONE TOP RELEASE

6* - DENVER -9

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Raphael Esparza

2 Unit Play. #103 Over 51 San Diego at Denver (8:25p.m., Oct 23 CBS)

Why not Peyton Manning is going against a team that has major injuries at the corners. I see both QB's having big games and I see Peyton Manning throwing for at least 3 touchdowns. San Diego is 8-3 O/U following a SU loss and the Broncos are 11-2 playing a team with a winning road record.

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Doc Sports

4* - Broncos

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Ferringo

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTION

7-Unit Play. Take #104 Denver (-9) over San Diego (8:20 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 23)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 51.0 San Diego at Denver (8:20 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 23)

This line has completely spazzed out today. I originally tabbed this game at 7.5 and knew that line was weak. The market is correcting itself and I wouldn't be surprise if this one hits 10.0 at some books before kickoff.

I just think that Denver is by far the better team here. We've seen a lot of blowouts in these Thursday games and the short week is definitely an advantage for the home team. That is especially true when the Chargers are coming off a tough, physical, close loss to a division rival (Kansas City) on Sunday. Denver, on the other hand, demolished San Francisco on Sunday night and this Broncos team always comes to play in prime time. The Broncos were able to rest a bunch of their starters in the second half of that 49ers game and I think the overall momentum of that win will carry over into this one.

Denver has won three straight games by double digits, beating Arizona by 21, the Jets by 14, and the 49ers by 25. This Broncos team was also tooling on the Colts at home in the opener before Indy snuck in the back door and they are an OT loss at Seattle away from being undefeated. The Broncos have gone on rushes like this with Peyton Manning and when they beat teams they tend to just demolish them. That is what I see tonight and I see this game being decided by between 13-17 points.

I like San Diego. Phil Rivers has been fantastic this year. But if you go back over the last month their last four wins have come over Oakland (barely), the Jets, the Jaguars and the Bills. Those teams are all losers. As such, I think San Diego has gotten overvalued. I know that the Chargers won here last year on Thursday night. But you know who else knows that: Denver. They will take the revenge angle in this one even though they beat the Chargers two of three times last year. San Diego kept the other two games ?close?. Or at least that is what the final scores look like (24-17, 20-27, 28-20). But that's not reality. And the last three Broncos wins have all had misleading finals.

Last year in the playoffs the Broncos were up 17-0 (and 24-7 with just eight minutes to play) and ended winning just 24-17 (San Diego covered as an 8-point underdog). They were up 28-6 midway through the third quarter of the regular season meeting and ended up winning just 28-20. And even back in 2012 they were up 30-16 with less than four minutes to play and ended up surrendering a 21-yard touchdown with 1:23 to play on a fourth down play for the Chargers to get in the backdoor.

The fact is that Denver has been much, much better than San Diego. And right now they are much, much better. San Diego's defense has just been mangled by injuries. Three of their top four cornerbacks aren't going to play tonight. How are they going to stop the Denver pass attack? I think that Denver is better, healthier, and more motivated. I think that it is going to be very difficult for the Chargers to rally after taking that physical and mental pounding on Sunday. I think Denver will jump out to another huge lead in this one. But unlike in other years I think they will slam the back door and take the cash.

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VegasButcher

Teaser (6.5 pts): Denver Broncos -2.5 / Miami Dolphins +0.5

Denver opened this one at -7.5 and the line shot up to -9.5, settling at -9 today. What’s the reason for that? Well, San Diego will be without both of their starting corner-backs as both Flowers and Verrett are out. On a short week, that is a lot tougher to replace. No wonder the line shot up on this news. Last year, San Diego won @ Denver 27-20, on a Thursday Night game. But it’s fair to expect today’s game to be different. Last season Denver was without Welker (concussion) and they didn’t have an adequate replacement for him in the slot. This year, they’ll have Welker and Sanders, two quick players who will cause a lot of trouble for the Chargers. In addition, last year San Diego grinded out 44 carries for 177 rushing yards, feeding Mathews 29 times. They controlled the ball for 39 minutes and kept Denver’s offense off the field. This year, they’ll have a tiny Branden Oliver (5’7 and 208 lbs) as their primary runner. After carrying the load in 3 straight games and now playing on short week on the road, I wonder how he’ll hold up. Chargers can’t afford to be in a shoot-out with Denver but I’m not so sure they’ll be able to grind out yards on the ground either. Besides, Denver has the 4th ranked run D, their D-line ranks 4th in ALY (Adjusted Line Yards) allowed, they rank 5th in Stuff%, and 1st in both 2nd level yards and Open Field yards. Those are some tremendous numbers. Basically even if Oliver breaks through the D-line, he’ll have a tough time gaining yards after the fact as Denver’s D is very stout against the run at every level. The game will fall on Rivers, and though he’s a stud, he won’t be facing the same Denver D that ranked 21st in passD last season. This year, Denver ranks 3rd in PassD and their pass-rush ranks 6th with an Adjusted Sack Rate of 8.0%. I like how Denver practices on Monday in preparation for this game as typically teams give their players that day off on a short week. That tells me that they’re taking this one seriously. I expect them to win and will tease down through the key numbers of 7, 6, 4, and 3.

As far as Miami is concerned, I’m fading a bad Jags team that is coming of their first win of the year. Jags lost Posluzny, their top linebacker last week to a season-ender and now will also be without Alan Ball, their starting CB. Jags ran the ball all over Cleveland’s bottom-5 ranked D last week but in week 8 they’ll face Miami’s 3rd ranked D, 5th against the pass and 9th against the run. Miami destroyed Oakland in London, should have beaten a good Packers team at home a few weeks ago, and then went to Chicago and totally dominated the Bears. This team is playing really well right now and I like their chances of ending Jacksonville’s winning streak on Sunday

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Greg Shaker

3* Virginia Tech

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Behind The Bets
Virginia Tech under 48.5 and Virginia Tech ML
4* Chargers +10 (bought 1/2) (-115)
2* Chargers +6.5 1H (+103)
3* Charges/Broncos U52.5

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Sports bank
400 san diego

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SPORTS UNLIMITED/Marco D'Angelo
denver under

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MILLIONAIRES CLUB
small
denver under

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Kelso 100 SD 25 Miami-f

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Rooster


San Diego +10 (-120)
Virginia Tech +3 (-120)