10-26-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Michigan State on Saturday and likes the Falcons on Sunday.

The deficit is 953 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo picks only the Best

Freeze froze, Wallace choked and Hondo missed with the Rebs against LSU on Saturday night, causing the deficit to balloon to 1,120 thurstons.

Sunday: Mr. Aitch will let it ride on his Best Bets: 10 units apiece on the Jets, Colts and Packers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

SUNDAY

3* (255) Chicago Bears +6

The Bears are coming off of another home loss on Sunday, this time against the Dolphins. Brandon Marshall called out quarterback Jay Cutler as the postgame Chicago locker room was very heated. I expect Chicago to respond with a strong showing in New England. The Bears play much better on the road and running back Matt Forte should have a huge game against a New England team that struggled to stop the run without linebacker Jared Mayo. Brandon Marshall might visit Revise Island, but Cutler still has Alton Jeffery, Marls Benet and Matt Forte to catch passes. New England survived against the Jets, and they should be able to score on the Chicago defense, but not winning by this margin. I think Chicago has a great shot at the upset, take the points.


3* (262) New York Jets -3

The Bills had their prayers answered last week as they stole one at home in the last seconds of the game against the Vikings. Buffalo's win did come at a cost as they lost their top two running backs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller both to injury. I don't expect Buffalo to generate much on the ground with a third string running back starting against a Jets defense that stops the run well. Kyle Orton is going to have to chuck it around to win this game and that is good news for the Jets. New York also gets to use Percy Harvin for the first time. This trade was stunning, but the Jets really have nothing to loss. I believe Harvin will have an impact in this game right away either on offense or the return game. Geno Smith played well at New England and that type of effort will pick up the win here. Lay the points.


3* (276) New Orleans Saints -1

This is a huge game for New Orleans. The Saints gave one away last week in Detroit, so this is almost a must win game. Green Bay throttled the Panthers last week and it looks like they have their offense back on track. One area that I think the Saints will be able to take advantage of is the run defense of the Packers that is last in the NFL. I expect a heavy dose of Mark Ingram as the Saints will try to control the time of possession and keep Aaron Rodgers and the offense on the sidelines. The Saints are a much better team at home in the dome and they will need to channel that home field advantage in this game. Another week of rest should also help tight end Jimmy Graham recover from his shoulder injury. Lay the points.

ADDED 2 STAR PLAYS FOR SUNDAY:

2* (252) Atlanta Falcons +3.5

2* (269) Philadelphia Eagles +1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

NFL

Detroit -3½ vs Atlanta

Detroit -3½ -110 over Atlanta

(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

9:30 AM EST. The 2-5 Falcons will try to end a four-game losing streak and they’ll attempt to do that across the pond at Wembley Stadium in London. Away from Atlanta, the Dirty Birds have lost six straight. Since they defeated the Buccaneers 56-14, Atlanta has lost every game by double digits and even allowed the offensive-less Vikings to hang a 41 on them. Aside from being the worst-coached team in the NFL, Atlanta will now play this game with its third starting center in undrafted rookie James Stone. The Falcons have already suffered season-ending injuries to four offensive linemen: tackles Sam Baker (knee) and Lamar Holmes (foot), Hawley and reserve Mike Johnson. Defensively, Atlanta has no pass rush whatsoever, which does not bode well here against Detroit. When you give quality QB’s time in this league they will rip you apart and that’s precisely what we expect to see from Matthew Stafford.

The Lions have been harassing quarterbacks all season and have the best defensive QBR in the NFL. Matt Ryan has been sacked on over 5% of his attempts this year, which is a disturbing number under any circumstance and now he’s facing a top-ranked unit with a makeshift line and third string center trying to protect him. Atlanta suffered a lot of injuries last year and went on to post an awful 4-12 record. This year the injuries are even worse and so are margins in which they are getting buried. Losing has taken a toll on this entire staff and it’s not about to change. Nothing about these squads is remotely comparable right now and it will be evident within minutes of kickoff that the Falcons are up against it once again. Unless Atlanta gets every bounce go their way, and that still might not be enough, they are going down by double-digits again. If Teddy Bridgewater went off for over 300 yards and 41 points against this Falcons’ defense, Stafford might go off for 600 yards and 80 points.


St. Louis @ KANSAS CITY

KANSAS CITY -7 -110 over St. Louis

(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

The Chiefs came off their bye last week and went into San Diego and won outright as a four-point pooch. Kansas City is gaining steam with four strong performances in a row, winning three of them and losing by just five in San Fran. The Chiefs have not played at home since Week 4 when they whacked the Patriots, 41-14. Since then, they’ve played twice on the road with a bye in between. Aside from the unexplainable opening loss to the Titans, the defense has been quietly very good at holding opponents down. Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles are a solid RB/QB combination and overall these Chiefs are pretty sound. They have the Jets on deck so this is not a look ahead game. It’s a chance for the Chiefs to solidify their playoff chances.

We’re not going to dissect the Rams because this fade has nothing to do with X’s and O’s and everything to do with the situation. St. Louis is in a horrible scheduling spot here and because of that they just might get whacked. The Rams are coming off games against San Francisco in prime time and Seattle last week. They defeated the Super Bowl Champs in a hugely emotional game and to make matters worse they have the 49ers up again next week in San Francisco. This road game against an AFC team is now sandwiched between San Fran, Seattle and San Fran again. After beating Seattle last week, taking seven points may look appealing but St. Louis isn’t braced for a big game here. Instead, they are in a near impossible spot that often leads to a huge defeat.


Minnesota @ TAMPA BAY

TAMPA BAY -3 +106 over Minnesota

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.12)

The Vikings finished with a 5-10-1 record last year, but had they not blown leads in the final minute of five games, they would have finished 10-6. They have a new coaching staff now and a new quarterback, but the outlook stays the same. They allowed journeyman Kyle Orton to throw for 105 yards on an 80-yard drive, including a pair of key passes to Sammy Watkins – who scored the game-winning touchdown with one second left on the clock. The more things change in Minnesota, the more they stay the same and our original prognostication on Teddy Bridgewater was way off. Dude is not NFL ready; not even close. Bridgewater holds the ball far too long, a common mistake among rookie QB’s and when he does get rid of it he misses his targets by five yards. The Vikes rank #29 in overall offense and are last in passing offense.

Take away the first quarter and the Bucs are actually a decent club. They have been outscored in the first quarter by a remarkable count of 72-17 but it’s pretty difficult to envision the pitiful Vikings putting up a crooked number in the first. Furthermore, the Bucs are coming off another embarrassing performance two weeks in Baltimore, where they were walloped 48-17. The last time they were walloped in Atlanta (56-14), Tampa Bay responded with a win in Pittsburgh the next time out as an 8-point underdog. Now they’ve had two weeks to prepare and that’s a long time to prepare with that latest loss hanging over their heads. Mike Glennon is getting better. He's not only thrown for two scores in each of the last three games, but twice he topped 300 yards in the process while only throwing one interception per week. More impressive still - he threw for 302 yards in a road game in Pittsburgh and later 314 yards at home against the Ravens defense. Minnesota is playing its third road game in four weeks here and that’s difficult for even the best of teams. Now we’re getting the better all-around team at home, coming off a bye and a horrible loss. Getting them at this price is a great bargain.


Baltimore @ CINCINNATI

CINCINNATI +104 over Baltimore

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)

Baltimore is 5-2. They have won two in a row and four of its past five games. The Ravens last three wins were by scores of 38-10, 48-17 and 29-7. That’s a combined 115 to 34 and blowout wins often cause an overreaction. String three blowout wins together and that overreaction is even bigger. In other words, Baltimore’s stock is soaring through the roof, which provides us with this sell-high opportunity. It should be noted, however, that Baltimore’s three blowout wins occurred against Carolina, Tampa Bay and Atlanta.

When the Bengals got off to a 3-0 start, they were making their statement that the road to the Super Bowl was going through Cincinnati. The city even had the parade mapped out. That seems like such a long time ago. In the last three weeks, the Bengals allowed New England to score nine times in a 43-17 blowout, missed a chip-shot field goal to tie Carolina and got shut out by Indianapolis. In other words, Cincinnati’s stock has hit rock bottom in much the same way New England’s did after the Patriots were whacked in Kansas City. If anyone had suggested three weeks ago that Baltimore would be favored in Cincinnati in Week 8, they would have been carted off to an asylum. Yeah, things do change in this league from week to week but this line is a big overreaction to Baltimore’s three blowout wins and Cincinnati’s three ugly losses. Let us now point out that Cincinnati has not lost at Paul Brown Stadium since December of 2012. That’s a streak of 11-0-1 since then and now the Bengals are a dog at home to a Baltimore team that has averaged 14 points a game in Cincinnati since 2009 and that has lost four of the past five here. This is a classic buy-low/sell-high situation and we’re on it.


San Diego @ DENVER

San Diego +9½ -103 over DENVER

(Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)

This line just keeps moving in Denver’s direction. Line opened at 7½, was at 8½ most of yesterday and is now up to 9½. It’s not often you get offered 9½ points with a quality team but that’s the case here and we’ll gladly bite because that is where the value lies. Just when the Chargers seem like they are an elite team, they struggle to beat the Raiders and then lose to the Chiefs in San Diego. Now the Chargers appear to be just another average team in a league full of them because of their last two results. That works to our advantage because we now get this quality team at an inflated price.

By contrast, Denver’s stock is extremely high after they buried the 49ers in prime time last week. Denver now plays in back-to-back prime time games and last week’s was especially emotional after Peyton Manning broke Brett Favre’s record. The anticipation in Denver was tremendous. It’s also worth noting that it was a Sunday night late game, which gives the Broncos even less time to recover and prepare for this short week. The Broncos are a great team but you are still going to pay a major premium on them here because of the over-reaction to last Sunday’s win and because they are so popular among bettors. Another reason this number is high is because the Chargers have some key defensive players on the rack. However, in San Diego’s win at Denver last year, the Chargers started Richard Marshall and Shareece Wright at cornerback and Thomas Keiser and Reggie Walker at outside linebacker. With San Diego’s top two cornerbacks in Brandon Flowers (concussion) and Jason Verrett (shoulder) nursing injuries, along with rookie pass-rusher Jeremiah Attaochu (hamstring), the Chargers' projected starting cornerbacks are Wright and Marshall. And the team’s projected starting outside linebackers are Jarret Johnson and Walker. The bottom line is Pagano trusts his backup players to know and understand his complex scheme. Those fill-in guys proved they can execute his game when they did so last year against Manning. Furthermore, Philip Rivers is 6-2 with wins in four of his last five starts at Sports Authority Field during the regular season. The Chargers won 27-20 in Denver last year. The Broncos won 28-20 in San Diego. The Broncos would later win in the divisional round when they beat the Chargers 24-17. A well-coached, balanced team with a strong record and an attack that knows how to execute its way down the field is being offered substantial (inflated) weight here in a short week. That doesn’t happen often and it instantly makes us buyers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

Capitals +110

Ducks -160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Randall the Handle's

BEST BETS

Vikings (2-5) at Buccaneers (1-5)

LINE: TAMPA BAY BY 2½

When QB Christian Ponder is your other option, continuing to nurture Teddy Bridgewater is the more sensible way to go. The Vikings are not a contending team and they may as well see what they have in their young draft choice. Trouble is, that you lose a lot of games during this audition stage. Sure, Teddy caught some lightning in a bottle against the Falcons (who doesn’t?) about a month ago, but it’s been downhill from there. After returning from an injury two games ago, Bridgewater has not thrown for 200 yards in a game. He’s thrown one touchdown compared to five interceptions and Minnesota’s passing game has dropped to dead last in the league, averaging 183.9 yards per game. The Bucs have had issues stopping the pass, but it shouldn’t be a concern against this impotent aerial attack. Tampa has had an extra week to prepare and they’ll be plenty motivated, having yet to win at home in three earlier attempts. Despite Tampa’s dreary 1-5 start, they are just two games back of this meek division’s lead. Look for strong effort against an incapable guest.
TAKING: BUCCANEERS –2½


Seahawks (3-3) at Panthers (3-3)

LINE: SEATTLE by 5

Enough of this nonsense. It’s time for the Seahawks to get well and they may have picked a perfect opponent to do so. The Panthers are not the strong defensive unit they were a year ago. Myriad secondary losses and injuries have left Carolina’s defence as thin as the talent level in the woeful NFC South. These guys have allowed 174 points over their past five games, an average of almost 35 per contest. Things are so desperate that the Panthers have to start James Dockery at corner, their third corner in as many weeks and a guy that wasn’t on an NFL roster three weeks ago. The Seahawks have had issues of their own, both on and off the field. But QB Russell Wilson is playing his butt off and, with his leadership qualities, he’ll get his championship team reined-in sooner than later. Even though Seattle was upset in St. Louis last week, the Seachickens outgained the Rams by nearly 200 yards. Special teams and distractions did them in, but don’t expect the same against this defenceless foe.
TAKING: SEAHAWKS –5


Packers (5-2) at Saints (2-4)

LINE: NEW ORLEANS by 1½

No, this is not a pre-Halloween trick. You really do get to spot this small price with a New Orleans team that has won 19 straight on its own field. They’ve played two games here this year and won them both. So the Saints didn’t cover against Tampa Bay as an 11-point favourite, their first non-cover in those 19 consecutive wins. Let’s discount them right down to where they basically just need to win for a cover here? We understand that the Packers have elevated their game since an inauspicious start, but let’s not overlook that they weren’t very good in three of four road games thus far. Green Bay lost at Seattle and Detroit, before being very fortunate to take down the Dolphins in final seconds two weeks ago. We understand that the Saints sit a couple games below .500, but they’ve been losing the turnover battle, while Green Bay is among the league leaders in turnover ratio. These things tend to balance out and, in front of a crazed N’awlins crowd on Sunday night, we’re very comfortable needing the bounces to go New Orleans’ way in a stadium at which they never lose.
TAKING: NEW ORLEANS –1½


THE REST

Falcons (2-4) versus Lions (5-2) at London, England

LINE: DETROIT by 3½

While this one will be played at Wembley Stadium in London, England, you’d be able to see the holes in this Atlanta defence from Planet Mars. The Falcons have been just average at home, but they remain brutal on the road. They’ve lost all four of their away games by a combined 59 points, an average of nearly 15 points per game. Atlanta’s two wins have come within this porous division, defeating a pair of NFC South foes who are a combined 3-9. Meanwhile, the Lions have become a top defensive club, holding five of seven opponents to under 17 points. Expect QB Matt Ryan to be running for his life here.
TAKING: LIONS –3½


Bears (3-4) at Patriots (5-2)

LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 6

Screwy Bears. Currently 0-3 at home and 3-1 away, Chicago travels again to face what appears to be a repaired New England team, one that most thought was broken after being crushed at Kansas City. Maybe the Patriots are okay, but facing a trio since then that included the suddenly mediocre Bengals, the Bills and the Jets, can we really be sure? New England has some injury concerns with key LB Jerod Mayo and RB Steven Ridley gone. Now the Pats get this NFC opponent that hails from a decent NFC division and it comes before a home date with arch-frenemy Peyton Manning and the Broncos next week. Bears leave it all out there this week.
TAKING: BEARS +6


Rams (2-4) at Chiefs (3-3)

LINE: KANSAS CITY by 7

While it is better to give than to receive, that doesn’t apply to these Chiefs. Kansas City has been underdogs in five of six games this year, covering four and pushing once. In the lone game that K.C. was giving, they were smoked 26-10 by the dreadful Titans. Granted, this will be Kansas City’s easiest contest in a month after facing the Patriots and Niners and upsetting the Chargers last week. But teams commonly play to the level of their opponent and since Andy Reid’s arrival here, his Chiefs have covered just two of their past eight as chalk. The Rams are high off a win over Seattle and should be motivated here for Missouri bragging rights.
TAKING: RAMS +7


Bills (4-3) at Jets (1-6)

LINE: N.Y. JETS by 3

The Jets have had a tough schedule, leading to their dismal 1-6 start. While things may get a little easier now, we’re still not prepared to spot points with a team that couldn’t even cover at home to Oakland. The Jets also lost straight-up when favoured here over the Bears. The Bills arrive with issues to their running game, but they still have skilled position players on offence where the Jets simply do not. Percy Harvin was acquired to help, but he’s expected to see limited action while he learns this offence. The Bills lead the league with 24 sacks and that doesn’t bode well for the Jets’ careless QB Geno Smith.
TAKING: BILLS +3


Dolphins (3-3) at Jaguars (1-6)

LINE: MIAMI by 6

The Fish have not given away this many road points since the Dan Marino days. However, the line sometimes shouts directions at you and we’re hearing them loud and clear. The Jaguars notched their first win of the year last week, but little has changed in Florida’s northeast. Rookie QB Blake Bortles somehow overcame three interceptions to defeat Cleveland, his 12th turnover in four games, and that is a sure recipe for losing in most cases. On the flip side, Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is in a groove and his squad won’t let up here as they remain in contention for the AFC East.
TAKING: DOLPHINS –6


Texans (3-4) at Titans (2-5)

LINE: HOUSTON by 3

QB Zach Mettenberger will get his first pro start for this one. That’s fine, as we’d fade QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as a road favourite even if Zach Galifianakis was the opposing starter. Fitzpatrick is a turnover machine and he’ll play against a defence that knows him from practice a year ago when he played in Nashville. The Texans are outgained in every game they play and, if not for the extreme defensive talents of J.J. Watt, this Houston team would be worse off than it already is. Houston is travelling for the third time in four games and this one takes place on a short week after a demoralizing loss in Pittsburgh on Monday.
TAKING: TITANS +3


Ravens (5-2) at Bengals (3-2-1)

LINE: BALTIMORE by 1

It may be difficult to get all revved up about the Bengals during this current slide, especially with the Ravens winning and playing at a high level. But, similar to New Orleans, we see great value with the home side. Cincinnati has not lost on this field since December 2012. That’s a streak of 11 games and now we’re asked to spot a measly point against a Baltimore team that Cincy already took down in the Ravens’ own backyard. The Bengals could get much-needed WR A.J. Green back for this one. His presence makes a huge difference — mentally and physically — for both combatants.
TAKING: BENGALS +1


Eagles (5-1) at Cardinals (5-1)

LINE: ARIZONA by 3

Not sure if either of these two will be deserving of a 6-1 record, but one of them is headed there. It very well could be the Eagles. Arizona’s depleted defence might be functional against the likes of the Raiders and Redskins, but we highly doubt it can hold up against Philadelphia’s rested and potent offence. Philly is healthier than it has been all year and it will get back some key players, including LG Evan Mathis. Picking up where they left off against the Giants, the Eagles’ fine group of tight ends (eight catches, 118 yards and two TDs) should be able to inflict similar damage to Arizona’s most gaping weakness.
TAKING: EAGLES +3


Colts (5-2) at Steelers (4-3)

LINE: INDIANAPOLIS by 3

Hard to gauge how good the Colts are as they’ve had a significantly soft schedule. That said, good teams defeat the teams they are supposed to and the Steelers qualify. Pittsburgh is playing winning football, but its record is better than it is. The Steelers have played the Browns twice, splitting with a narrow win and then being clobbered, the Jaguars in a close one and Houston on Monday night where they had a three-minute spurt that secured the game against a sloppy Texans team. Most important is Pittsburgh’s defence, a unit that can be easily exposed and, with Andrew Luck’s ascension as a top pivot in this league, he should have little trouble with this meager host.
TAKING: COLTS –3


Raiders (0-6) at Browns (3-3)

LINE: CLEVELAND by 7

It’s been a while since the Browns have been laying seven and this follows an embarrassing loss to the lowly Jaguars. Following up a loss to winless Jacksonville with another to these winless Raiders would set Cleveland back beyond their low point of recent years. We have to think they’ll rebound against an Oakland team that hasn’t won in 12 games and that has not topped 14 points in 11 of those 12 contests. Jacksonville was successful by stopping Cleveland’s run game. The Raiders don’t have that same ability, as they’ve allowed opponents to rush for 145 yards per game, fourth-most in the league.
TAKING: BROWNS –7


Redskins (2-5) at Cowboys (6-1)

LINE: DALLAS by 10

Wow, 10 points? This Dallas thing could be getting out of hand. We can’t deny how well the Cowboys are playing, seemingly unstoppable with DeMarco Murray shredding defences and Tony Romo taking advantage by not being forced to win games with his arm. But this is Redskins-Cowboys, a rivalry that goes beyond the merits of each team. Washington has covered seven of its past eight versus its rivals, and the two times it was receiving generous points like this, it lost by three and one respectively. Perhaps Colt McCoy starting for the Redskins has bolstered this spread, but is he really much of a dropoff from Kirk Cousins?
TAKING: REDSKINS +10


WEEK 8 SELECTIONS

FAVOURITE LINE UNDERDOG LONGLEY FIDLIN RANDALL

Lions 31/2 Falcons Lions Lions Lions

BUCS 21/2 Vikings Bucs Vikings Bucs*

PATRIOTS 6 Bears Patriots Patriots Bears

CHIEFS 7 Rams Rams Rams Rams

Seahawks 5 PANTHERS Seahawks* Seahawks Seahawks*

JETS 3 Bills Jets Jets Bills

Dolphins 6 JAGUARS Dolphins Jaguars Dolphins

Texans 3 TITANS Texans Titans Titans

Ravens 1 BENGALS Ravens Ravens Bengals

CARDINALS 3 Eagles Eagles Cardinals Eagles

Colts 3 STEELERS Colts Colts Colts

BROWNS 7 Raiders Raiders Browns Browns

SAINTS 11/2 Packers Saints Saints* Saints*

COWBOYS 10 Redskins Redskins Redskins Redskins


BEST BETS (*) BEST BETS (*)

Last Week Season LAST WEEK SEASON

Sun NFL columnist Rob Longley 8-7 57-44-3 1-0 4-3

Sun NFL columnist Ken Fidlin 7-8 43-58-3 0-1 2-5

Randall The Handle 10-5 51-50-3 1-2 9-11-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Lions -3.5
Texans -3
Saints -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sample:

Packers TT OVER 27.5 (2Units)

Dolphins TT Under 24.5
Falcons TT Under 21.5
Cincy +8/Jags +14/Chiefs -.5 (+142) - 7pt ties win

Also adding a 3rd unit to GB TT, this one at O26.5. Other 2 were at 27.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

NFL DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR
Cincinnati Bengals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo

NFL DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR
Cincinnati Bengals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Ramirez

7 KARAT HIGH ROLLER GAME
Indianapolis Colts ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan Triple Dime Game of the Month
New Orleans -1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
New Orleans Saints -135 over Green Bay Packers
(System Record: 19-4, won last 3 games and a push)
Overall Record: 19-21-2

Rest of the Plays
Chicago Bears +6 over New England Patriots
Arizona Cardinals -120 over Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 over Detroit Lions

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

3* NFL WEEK-8 SUNDAY SMACKDOWN: New Orleans Saints