10-31-14

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Dr Bob

(308) ***Memphis (-21 ½) 3-Stars at -24 or less, 2-Stars up to -27, 1-Star up to -28
***MEMPHIS (-21 ½) 48 Tulsa 14
Fri Oct-31-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 308 Over/Under 0.0
Memphis is on the upswing under third year coach Justin Fuente and this year’s veteran Tigers’ squad has not only held up relatively well against elite competition (a 7 point loss at UCLA and holding Ole’ Miss to just 24 points) but they’ve also blown out lesser teams, notching 3 wins by 27 points or more. Teams that struggled the previous season don’t tend to letdown against bad teams, as home favorites of more than 21 points that lost 9 or more games the previous season are 45-15 ATS, including 9-3 ATS this season (1-0 for Memphis). Memphis also applies to a 116-45 ATS home momentum situation that works really well when applying to big favorites (62-21 ATS on favorites of 17 points or more). Tulsa, meanwhile, applies to a 40-90-3 ATS negative momentum situation and the Hurricanes have been blown out by the only two better than average teams they’ve faced this season (7-52 home versus Oklahoma and 17-42 at Colorado State).


This game would have been a Best Bet even if those situations did not apply, as Tulsa is simply a horrible team that has averaged a sub-par 5.2 yards per play and allowed 7.5 yppl despite facing a below average schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl and allow 5.9 yppl to an average opponent. Memphis, meanwhile, has a better than average defense (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense) and a mediocre offense that has proven capable of scoring a lot of points against bad defensive teams. Memphis has averaged 47 points in 4 games against bad defensive teams and my math model projects 48 points for the Tigers in this game while holding Tulsa to a projected 14.5 points. The math model gives Memphis a 60% chance of covering based solely on the historical performance of the math model and the supporting situations add to that percentage. I’ll take Memphis in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -27 and for 1-Star up to -28 points.

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Maddux Sports

Memphis -22.5 {10*}

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Steve Fezzik:

308 Memphis -23.5

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BEN BURNS

FEAST - Tulane

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Joe Gavazzi

Cincinnati (-3-) at Tulane 8:00 ET ESPN
Despite noted improvement under 3rd year HC Johnson, from 2-10 SU to 7-6 SU from his first to second year, the Green Wave is far from a premier program. Consider their 2-5 SU pedigree in which they are averaging just 19 PPG on 354 YPG and 5.0 YP play. Clearly, they are on the verge of being an Offensive Oaf. Every season in college football, there is a team who makes a late season turnaround. Could that be this year’s Cincinnati Bearcats (a team who went 29-10 SU the previous 3 seasons)? A disastrous defensive start, including allowing 146 points in consecutive weeks of a 0-3 SU ATS run vs. Ohio St., Memphis, and Miami, FL left the Bearcats as unwanted road kill. I know it was only SMU and USF, but against that weaker competition, Cincinnati allowed just 20 points in wins of 34 and 17 including early game competition that resulted in wins of 24 vs. Toledo and 7 vs. Miami, OH. It means the Bearcats are 4-3 SU with victories against every team they should beat. Whether it’s QB Kiel at the helm or former starter QB Legaux, look for a resurgent Bearcat team to continue their success against lower echelon teams.

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Tulsa at Memphis

The Golden Hurricanes head to Memphis tonight to face a Tigers team that is coming off a 48-10 win at SMU and is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. Memphis is the pick (-23) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 27 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-23). Here are all of this week's NCAA Football picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (10/29)

Game 307-308: Tulsa at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 68.282; Memphis 95.674 Dunkel Line: Memphis by 27 1/2; 56 Vegas Line: Memphis by 23; 61 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-23); Under

Game 309-310: Cincinnati at Tulane (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 75.925; Tulane 79.754 Dunkel Line: Tulane by 4; 63 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 57 Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+4 1/2); Over

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Today's CFL Picks

Hamilton at Ottawa

The Tiger-Cats head to Ottawa on Friday night and come into the contest with an 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 Friday games. Hamilton is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tiger-Cats favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (10/30)

Game 491-492: Hamilton at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 116.569; Ottawa 108.030 Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 8 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Hamilton by 6 1/2; 44 Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-6 1/2); Over

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Today's NBA Picks

Memphis at Indiana

The Grizzlies head to Indiana tonight to face a Pacers team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games versus Southwest Division opponents. Memphis is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-6 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: Memphis at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 124.930; Indiana 116.239 Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 8 1/2; 181 Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 6 1/2; 185 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-6 1/2); Under

Game 703-704: Cleveland at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 118.876; Chicago 120.131 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 198 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 4; 193 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+4); Over

Game 705-706: Philadelphia at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 108.547; Milwaukee 120.208 Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 11 1/2; 197 Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 9; 202 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-9); Under

Game 707-708: Portland at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 127.762; Sacramento 118.434 Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 3 1/2; 206 Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 6; 201 Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+6); Over

Game 709-710: San Antonio at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 132.065; Phoenix 125.831 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 202 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 206 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-1 1/2); Under

Game 711-712: LA Clippers at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 123.165; LA Lakers 116.502 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 6 1/2; 216 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 12; 210 Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+12); Over

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Today's NHL Picks

Anaheim at Dallas

The Ducks head to Dallas tonight to face a Stars team that is 1-4 in its last 5 home games. Anaheim is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-105). Here are all of today's NHL picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Toronto at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.219; Columbus 12.774 Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-110); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-110); Under

Game 53-54: Los Angeles at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.421; Detroit 11.012 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-115); 5 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-115); Over

Game 55-56: Anaheim at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.877; Dallas 11.445 Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-115); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-105); Under

Game 57-58: Nashville at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 10.905; Calgary 12.328 Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-120); 5 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+100); Over

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Paul Leiner

100* Memphis -24
100* Spurs / Suns Over 205
50* Cavaliers +4

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StatFox Super Situations

NBA | LA CLIPPERS at LA LAKERS
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 poor defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of >=45.5%
93-49 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.5% | 39.1 units )
6-2 this year. ( 75.0% | 3.8 units )

NBA | LA CLIPPERS at LA LAKERS
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a team who had a losing record last year, vs. division opponents
43-15 since 1997. ( 74.1% | 25.4 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

NBA | LA CLIPPERS at LA LAKERS
Play On - Home underdogs of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (LA LAKERS) off a road loss, first half of the season
25-6 since 1997. ( 80.6% | 18.4 units )

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Game of the Day: Cincinnati at Tulane

Cincinnati Bearcats at Tulane Green Wave (+4.5, 58)

Quarterback Gunner Kiel aggravated his rib injury in his last start, allowing backup Munchie Legaux to give Cincinnati the emotional boost that has helped the team rebound from an ugly losing streak. Kiel is expected to resume his normal duties Friday as the Bearcats attempt to get a rare win at Tulane. Legaux scored on a second-half touchdown run in Cincinnati’s 34-17 victory over South Florida, putting an exclamation mark on his return from a career-threatening knee injury last season.

"He put a long year of rehab in, something most of us wouldn't have (gone) through. This was his moment," Bearcats coach Tommy Tuberville told reporters about Legaux, who finished 14-for-15 for 121 yards in relief of Kiel. After dropping three straight by an average of 23.3 points, Cincinnati has outscored Southern Methodist and South Florida by a combined 55 points, but is only 3-11 all-time against the Green Wave. Tulane has not played since Oct. 18, when it was stopped on fourth down on two potential game-tying drives in the fourth quarter of a 20-13 loss at Central Florida.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2. LINE: Cincinnati -3.5

LINE HISTORY: Tulane opened at +4, but within hours is was down to +3.5. Then late Wednesday night the line moved to it's original 4 before moving to +4.5 Thursday. The total has been more tame after opening at 57, it jumped one point to 58.

INJURY REPORT: Cincinnati - QB Gunner Kiel (Prob-Ribs), S Adrian Witty (Ques-Leg) Tulane - QB Tanner Lee (Prob-Shoulder), LB Jarrod Franklin (Ques-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: Clear skies and comfortable temperatures are expected in New Orleans with winds blowing to the north at 12 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Both teams have injuries at quarterback, however both starters are listed as probable and expected to play in this game. Cincinnati holds a substantial offense edge, averaging 34 points per game and 6.4 yards per play this season, while Tulane averages only 19 points and 5.0 yards per play. However, the Green Wave does have the much better defense as they permit just 28 ppg and 5.4 yards per play, compared to a poor Cincinnati stop unit that is allowing 32 points per game and 6.5 yards per play this season. The scheduling situation also favors Tulane as a home underdog coming off a bye week with extra time to prepare. However, if Tulane gets behind early, they might have trouble catching up with a terrible passing offense that is averaging a paltry 5.5 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that allow 7.3 ypp)." - Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "It will be a rough night for the shop if Cincinnati covers, as both sharp bettors & a heavy majority of the betting public (88 percent of cash, 91 percent of bets) are backing the Bearcats. Cincinnati opened -3.5 and on Tuesday, got sharp action on the favorite, so moved Cincy to -4.5. Earlier Thursday we saw more sharps on Cincy, so moved them to current number of -6.5." - Mike Jerome.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U): Linebacker Marcus Tappan was suspended indefinitely following a Sunday morning arrest for breaking and entering, continuing a troubling off-field pattern for the Bearcats. Quarterback Jarred Evans was arrested on a misdemeanor assault charge last week and four Cincinnati players were arrested, cited or found with outstanding warrants last month when police responded to a party where gunshots were fired. Freshman Mike Boone ran 19 times for 212 yards and a touchdown last week, the first 200-yard game by a Bearcats running back in four years.

ABOUT TULANE (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Cincinnati’s 12th-ranked passing offense figures to receive a stiff test from the Green Wave, who have allowed only one opponent to throw for more than 213 yards after surrendering 438 in a season-opening loss at Tulsa. Freshman running back Sherman Badie sports the 17th-best yard-per-carry average in the nation (6.61) and is only the second player in the 120-year history of Tulane football to record three runs of at least 70 yards. Cornerback Lorenzo Doss has 14 career interceptions, one shy of setting the school record.

*Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
*Green Wave are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
*Under is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 conference games.
*Under is 8-2-1 in Green Wave last 11 games following a S.U. loss.

CONSENSUS: 78.12 percent are backing the Bearcats -4.5 with 50.6 percent on the over.

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play FRI Clippers -11

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Saints (-3) on Thursday and likes the Grizzlies on Friday.

The deficit is 808 sirignanos.