11-1-14

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Sports Reporter 24-13 on Best Bets and Super Best Bets

Houston, New England

Central Michigan, Auburn, Miss St (Super Best Bet), San Diego St, Middle Tenn, UL-Lafayette

Pointwise 1-4 rated plays 32-22 YTD

1* Arizona, Ohio St
2*Mississippi
3*Baylor
4*Kansas St, Miss St
5*TCU, Tex A&M

NFL - Pittsburgh, STL, Dallas, NYG, Cincy

Gold Sheet 7-17 in the NFL Key plays

San Diego
Indy
Over Balt/Pitt

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, November 1, 2014
Notre Dame (-15) vs. Navy (FED EX Field) 8:00 ET CBS
With Notre Dame 5-2 ATS +26 AFP and Navy -5 ATS -36 AFP, we will confidently lineup with an extra TD of value in this annual mid-season classic. Must note that the Irish had their 6-0 SU bubble burst in the 31-27 should-have-been upset of No. 1 Florida St. A closer look at the stats, show the Irish with a 470-323 edge in that game. That letdown is aided by team personality profiles that showed Dame to be just 3-9 ATS as double digit favorite, while the Middies enter at 14-5 ATS as regular season underdog. Though not in love with this year’s edition of the 28/411 Navy defense, must note that in last year’s 38-34 Notre Dame series victory, Navy rambled for their usual 70/329 overland. Last week, QB Reynolds returned to lead a Navy ground game that outrushed San Jose 423-100 with Reynolds accounting for 251 of those overland yards. The value, the situation, the stats, and the technicals all point to Navy coming inside this impost.

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SPORTS INSIGHTS totals added

NCAAF Best Bets 49-32 +12.48 units
Game Time (ET) Play Best Line
11/01 12:00 PM 315 Play on ECU Over 58.5-110
11/01 12:00 PM 318 Play on CONN 12-110
11/01 3:00 PM 321 Play on NC-ST Over 51-110
11/01 4:00 PM 348 Play on MIZZ -6.5-110
11/01 7:15 PM 350 Play on MS-ST Under 64-110
11/01 12:00 PM 353 Play on UL-MON Over 58.5-110
11/01 11:00 PM 390 Play on AZ-ST -6-105
11/01 4:00 PM 394 Play on USF 10-110

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lawrence auburn

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Freddy Wills

Ole Miss -2 4.4*

San Jose St. +6.5 5.5*

Northwestern +4 2.2*

Kentucky +8 3. 3 *

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RAS


UTEP -4.5
Rating: 1.50

Nevada -4
Rating: 1.00

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INDIAN COWBOY


7-Unit Play #354 Take Texas A&M-34 over Louisiana Monroe (Saturday @ Noon est)

Perour rankings, Texas A&M has done something recently that no other team inAmerica has ever done. According to our power rankings, this team has faced the#1, #2 and #3 power ranking teams in the country in back to back to back weeks.That stinks. It's hard to fault a team and a coaching staff that has a newquarterback and now has rolled into the 3 of the toughest teams in the countryall in their division at that. You will here possible SEC bias but to be frank,those who state that are fools. Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, LSU,A&M and even Arkansas will go down as the toughest division ever in thehistory of college football for this span of time likely. You have multiplecoaches who have won Titles including Nick Saban (at both Bama and LSU), LesMiles, Coach Mullen winning multiple national titles at Florida under UrbanMeyer as offensive coordinator, Coach Freese now having been #1 at one pointthis year, an Arkansas Coach in Coach B who has won multiple Rose Bowls and ofcourse, most an A&M team that can run anyone out of the building with theiroffense. So, when you have a proud team like A&M who comes off 3 straightlosses, similar to Arkansas last week, when they get an opportunity to take outsome frustration here on UL Monroe they will certainly do it. Monroe is ahardworking team and they have plenty of capable decent players. But theirdepth is lacking and they face a A&M team that is just furious right now wantingto get back on track with a win. This is a top 20 team in A&M in the powerrankings, with a top 5 difficulty in schedule, who has a top 10 ten offense andtop 50 defense comes off getting blanked by Alabama 0-59 on the road. If thisteam put up 38 on a decent Rice team winning 38-10 who is a top 80 team imaginewhat they can do here against a top 150 team including lower divisional schoolsat home coming off getting blanked. Monroe has a defense outside the top 100and an offense outside the top 100 as well and if they scored 18 points onTexas State, 14 against Kentucky and 14 against Arkansas State, you will see anA&M team challenged on the defensive side to play well and challenged onthe offensive side to play well after getting blanked in their previous game.We like A&M to likely win by 40 or more here in a 56-14 type offashion.



3-Unit Play #328 Take Miami -15over North Carolina (Saturday @ 12:30pm est)

Ifthe line is large, there is good reason for it. Miami is starting to get on aroll with their young quarterback and the power rankings across many systemshave picked up on this. Miami comes off a couple of big wins against Cincinnatiby 21 points at home and most recently dominating a Virginia Tech team by ascore of 30-6 on the road which is truly impressive. Golden has faced a lot ofcriticism for this team but you can tell that this team is slowly turningaround and now we have them as a top 35 power ranking team in the country. Thisteam is now 5-3 and a win here would be absolutely huge for this squad as itputs them at 6-3 and sets them up nicely for the final showdowns with FloridaState, at Virginia and Pittsburgh. In essence, if this team can win here, theycan win one or possibly both games down the road and end the season with 8 winswhich would be a huge progression for this team going forward. This team's onlylosses were to Nebraska, Georgia Tech and Louisville of which if they playedGeorgia Tech with the experience they have now they could very well win thatgame. Tack that on with North Carolina struggling against teams with strongdefensive fronts and Miami putting up 30 points on a very good Virginia Techdefense and now facing one of the weaker defenses in the country, look forMiami to play extremely well here. Sure UNC has a highly potent offense but UNCwas equalized somewhat by Virginia's defense. Miami has a better defense and anoffense than Virginia and that's what makes the difference here, we have Miamiwinning here by around 20 points in what will be a surprise to many but thenumbers speak volumes of late for what Miami has done.



3-Unit Play #324 Take Pittsburgh-3.5 over Duke (Saturday @ Noon est)

Anotherteam that struggles against strong defensive fronts is Duke. A lot was learnedabout Duke who is now a top 35 rated team when they faced Miami and Virginia.Virginia's defensive line is like a poor man's Miami defensive line. The potentDuke offense who is not sneaking up on people this year given their successlast year, has struggled against Miami scoring just 10 points against them andstruggled against Virginia scoring just 20 points though winning overall. Nowthis team has to face a Pittsburgh defensive line that is stronger than mostpeople realize but more importantly, this team has a fantastic running game andan offensive line that can dominate. This keeps the ball away from Duke andtheir offense and after nearly being run out of their own building againstGeorgia Tech losing 28-56, look for this team to show up with a lot of heartagainst Duke and win in a similar fashion to their win against Boston Collegeon the road by a final score of 27-20 by essentially a touchdown.



3-Unit Play #391 Take TCU -4 overWest Virginia (Saturday @ 3:30pm est)

Welike TCU to do very well as it was nearly a step-out for us but we will go witha standard rated play. Note that TCU is one of the best teams in the country aswe believe they can stack up against anybody in anyway. Frankly, if they do notlose to Baylor late, what a resume this team will have as they can argue to bethe #2 team in the country based on any power ranking scale. This is a teamthat if you remember got beat by West Virginia at home in extra time last yearand certainly has that anger and revenge in mind. Though this team could have alet down in mind after putting up 80+ in their last game, its hard to see howthey oversee another top 25 team on the road who beat them on their own fieldlast year. Plenty of revenge here for TCU, inclement weather or not andregardless of how well West Virginia played against a weaker Oklahoma Stateteam, we like TCU here by about 10 points per our models. Note that if WestVirginia lost to Oklahoma at home in a primetime game they were juiced up to dowell and win by double-digits, they will find TCU possibly even tougher as TCUis better on the defensive front and frankly coaching as well than Oklahoma. Welike TCU by about 10 points this Saturday afternoon.



3-Unit Play #386 Take UCLA -6.5over Arizona (Saturday @ 10:30pm est)

Perthis contest, its always interesting to see a team who is lower ranked in thetop 25 facing a team who is higher ranked. Granted, home field could have a lotto do with it. But there are just some teams who do well against other teams inparticular to the coaching staffs get ready for some coaches better thanothers. Enter Jim Mora who has an opportunity to hook up once again with theArizona coaching staff. This is a sound public fade for starters, but alsoMora's UCLA team beat this Arizona team 31-26 last year AFTER they beat Arizonathe year before 66-10. Just think about that. This team hammers Arizona by 56points at home and then goes on the road and revenge or no revenge beatsArizona as an underdog away from home. That says a lot. Now, this team hooks upwith them again coming off a terrible game against Colorado where they nearlylost in extra time and look to play much better here against a top 15 team.Arizona played a great game at Washington State and this is a big let down forthis squad on the road here at UCLA in a primetime game and Mora gets the bestof the Arizona coaching staff once again as we have UCLA by 10 this evening perour models.

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Doc Sports



6 Unit Play. #408/#408 Take Nevada Wolf Pack -3 over San Diego State Aztecs (Saturday 10:30 pm CBSSN)

Mountain West Game of the Year

San Diego State is 3-1 in the MW, but those three victories have come against the three worst teams in the league (UNLV, New Mexico, & Hawaii). Their loss came against Fresno State, another sketchy team. Nevada is playing much better football of late, having won two straight games, including two outstanding performances in the second half. San Diego State was much stronger in 2013, and Nevada still took them to overtime in San Diego. The Pack have a major edge at the quarterback position, and that will allow them to win this game by double digits. Nevada has covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.



4 Unit Play. #326/#354 Take Penn State Nittany Lions -3.5 over Maryland Terrapins (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2)


Penn State took Ohio State to the wire last week and felt they got the short end of the officiating stick. Expect them to bounce back in a big way against a Maryland team that got run over by Wisconsin last week. Penn State should be able to pick apart this Maryland team in the passing game, and this is a must-win game for them if they want to go bowling. Penn State is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. Penn State pulls away in the second half to win by double digits.



4 Unit Play. #331/#365 Take Air Force Falcons -2.5 over Army Black Knights (Saturday 11:30 am CBS)

Army has been a bottom feeder in the three-team battle for the Commander in Chief Trophy for quite some time. Air Force has a lot to play for in this game as a victory will earn them the trophy for 2014. Army is just 2-5 on the season and already has losses against Yale, Wake Forest, Rice, and Kent State. Yale is not even FBS team, and the other three will be lucky to make a bowl game. Air Force is 15-2 straight-up in their last 17 meetings and 13-4 ATS during that span as well. Air Force has already faced two triple-option teams this season in Navy and New Mexico and thus will be well prepared for what the Black Knights offer. This will be a double-digit point spread victory for the visitor as the Force is much more balanced and will pick apart Army. Air Force reclaims the Commander in Chief Trophy!


4 Unit Play. #356/#386 Take Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +3 over BYU Cougars (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS Sports Network)

The spread has really come down, and the oddsmakers are finally catching up to the talent of BYU. But that being said, there is no way they deserve to be favored on the road against a decent Blue Raider team. BYU has lost 6 straight games against the spread, including our top play last week (Revenge Game of the Year). MTSU also has revenge on their minds and is coming off a bye week. MTSU is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.


4 Unit Play. #409/#409 Take Utah State Aggies -3 over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 11 pm the MWC)

Yes, I know Utah State has lost three quarterbacks to injury this season and they are likely down to people in the parking lot, but they still have enough to beat Hawaii. Nevada did not play very well last week, especially in the first half, and still pounded Hawaii (a late TD by the Warriors made the score closer). Utah State has by far and away the best defense in the Mountain West, and I was encouraged by QB Kent Myers, who came in and moved the football once Craig Harrison went down. He is a dual threat quarterback that can beat you with his legs and should give the Warriors fits all night long. Hawaii is in total shambles with zero home crowd edge (the stands last week were almost empty) and a coach that is just past his prime. Hawaii hung with a couple of PAC-12 teams early in the season, but that seems like a decade ago, and this team is just not the same without Joey Iosefa. The Aggies have one of the best defenses in the country, especially against the run, and will win this game by double digits. It does not matter who starts at quarterback for the Aggies, the talent at the other spots is too much for the Warriors to stay close. Lay the small change in this game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports
6*. Arkansas +11
4*. Georgia Tech -4
3*. NC +15.5

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Allen Eastman

3* nevada -3
3* cinci -6.5
3* duke +3.5
3* miami -15
4* georgia -10.5
4* app st -12.5
5* midd tenn +4

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Gilztips

Western Michigan -7
Usc over 66
Boston college plus 3.5
Georgia -10.5
Air Force under 56.5

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Saturday Edge

TrentMoney:

324 Pitt -2.5 (1.5*)
371 Virginia +3.5 (1.5*)
347 Kentucky +6.5 (1*)

Pez:

363 Stanford +9.5 (1 unit)
390 ASU -5 (1 unit)
381 Washington /Colorado UNDER 60 (1 unit)
386 UCLA -6.5 (1 unit)
339 Purdue/Nebraska OVER 61 (1 unit)
387 CSU/SJSU UNDER 55.5 (0.50 units)

GoSooners:
341 Baylor/Kansas under 61 (1 unit)
367 Kansas St/OSU under 52 (1 Unit)
392 West Virginia/TCU over 72.5 (1 unit)
335 Northwestern +4 (1 unit)
313 Boston College +3.5 (1 unit)
345 Auburn +2 (1 unit)
321 NCST +3.5
362 Wazzu +9.5 (1 unit)

Sabert

2u Asu -5
2u UK +8
1u Auburn +2.5
1u UNC +15
1.5u Texas -5
2u Michigan -6.5
1u Cincy -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc lawrence

superpick= boston college
key play = virginia
playbook data play= ohio st

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SPORTS BETTING PROF

12 PM
318. Connecticut +10.5*

4:30 PM
362. Washington St. +10* (Best Available)

8 PM
367. Oklahoma St. +13* (Best Available)

Rest of Games
380. Florida International +7
316. Temple +7.5
344. Miami Ohio +7
351. Western Kentucky +7.5
394. South Florida +8
347. Kentucky +8
375. South Alabama +7
377. San Jose St. +6.5
349. Arkansas +11
363. Stanford +8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

3-Unit Play. Take #354 Texas A&M (-34) over UL-Monroe (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 1)
3-Unit Play. Take #384 Oregon State (-4) over California (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
7-Unit Play. Take #387 Colorado State (-7) over San Jose State (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
3-Unit Play. Take #408 Nevada (-3) over San Diego State (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)