11-2-14

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Today's NFL Picks

Denver at New England

The Patriots host the Broncos this afternoon and come into the contest with an 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 home games when the total listed is greater than 49 1/2 points. New England is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: New England (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2 Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (10/29)

Game 451-452: San Diego at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 134.534; Miami 137.978 Dunkel Line: Miami by 3 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: Miami by 1; 45 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1); Under

Game 453-454: Jacksonville at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.104; Cincinnati 133.700 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2; 39 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 11 1/2; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+11 1/2); Under

Game 455-456: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 122.456; Cleveland 131.497 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 9; 47 Vegas Line: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6 1/2); Over

Game 457-458: Washington at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.958; Minnesota 130.481 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1 1/2); Under

Game 459-460: Philadelphia at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 132.073; Houston 133.242 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 53 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 48 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Over

Game 461-462: NY Jets at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 122.816; Kansas City 143.891 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 21; 45 Vegas Line: Kansas City by 9 1/2; 41 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-9 1/2); Over

Game 463-464: Arizona at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 134.908; Dallas 135.812 Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 44 Vegas Line: Dallas by 4; 48 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4); Under

Game 465-466: St. Louis at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 125.897; San Francisco 138.657 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 13; 48 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 10; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-10); Over

Game 467-468: Denver at New England (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 142.499; New England 143.484 Dunkel Line: New England by 1; 52 Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 55 Dunkel Pick: New England (+3 1/2); Under

Game 469-470: Oakland at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.664; Seattle 135.186 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 12 1/2; 40 Vegas Line: Seattle by 15; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+15); Under

Game 471-472: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.551; Pittsburgh 137.412 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 52 Vegas Line: Pick; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh; Over

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Today's CFL Picks

Toronto at Montreal

The Argonauts head to Montreal this afternoon where they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 contests versus the Alouettes. Toronto is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Argonauts favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+2 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (10/30)

Game 497-498: Toronto at Montreal (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 117.697; Montreal 116.580 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 46 Vegas Line: Montreal by 2 1/2; 50 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+2 1/2); Under

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Today's NBA Picks

Golden State at Portland

The Warriors head to Portland tonight following a 127-104 win over the Lakers last night and come into the contest with a 4-10-1 ATS record in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Portland is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blazers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Portland (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: Sacramento at LA Clippers (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 116.762; LA Clippers 124.799 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8; 201 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10; 206 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+10); Under

Game 703-704: Toronto at Miami (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 119.895; Miami 127.669 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 8; 205 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 705-706: Charlotte at New York (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 111.406; New York 111.098 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 193 Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4; 187 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+4); Over

Game 707-708: Golden State at Portland (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 122.749; Portland 128.568 Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 6; 212 Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3 1/2; 207 Dunkel Pick: Portland (-3 1/2); Over

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Today's NHL Picks

Nashville at Vancouver

The Predators head to Vancouver tonight to face a Canucks team that is coming off a 3-2 win at Edmonton last night and is 1-9 in its last 10 games when playing with 0 days rest. Nashville is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Predators favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-110). Here are all of today's NHL picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Detroit at Buffalo (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.120; Buffalo 9.675 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-245); 5 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-245); Over

Game 53-54: Los Angeles at Carolina (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 10.383; Carolina 11.481 Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-185); 5 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+165); Under

Game 55-56: Arizona at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 9.120; Washington 10.970 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-175); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-175); Over

Game 57-58: Calgary at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.348; Montreal 11.333 Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-185); 5 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+165); Under

Game 59-60: Anaheim at Colorado (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.426; Colorado 12.639 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-135); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Under

Game 61-62: Winnipeg at Chicago (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 9.877; Chicago 12.707 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-260); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-260); Under

Game 63-64: Nashville at Vancouver (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.544; Vancouver 11.110 Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-110); 5 Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-110); Over

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Mike Anthony

BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR SF 49ers

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Anthony Redd

Sunday's Play

80 Dime selection on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Cleveland Browns. As I release this play at 5:10am Pacific here in Vegas, the line on Tampa Bay +7 in Vegas and offshore. In this situation I recommend you buy the 1/2 point insurance and move the line to + 7 1/2

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Gabriel DuPont

Football winner...

My 50 Dime Winner is the OVER in the Cleveland-Tampa Bay clash at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland. And as I release this game at 5 a.m. pacific, I see the line is 43 points.

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Brandon Lang

Sunday Selection ...

My 100 dime selection is on Arizona over Dallas. The current line on this game ranges from Arizona +2 to a pickem to Arizona -1 1/2. Definitely shop around for the best line available.

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Jack Jones

25* TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Steelers/Ravens UNDER 48
15* AFC GOW: Jets +10
15* NON-CONFERENCE KNOCKOUT: Raiders +14.5
20* NBA GOW: Kings +10

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Jimmy Boyd:

5* GAME OF YEAR: Jets +10
4* TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Steelers/Ravens UNDER 48
3* WEEK 9 TOTAL DOMINATOR: Bucs/Browns UNDER 43.5

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Wayne root

top play Miami dolphins

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King Creole | NFL Total
San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins Double-Dime Bet
2** Play On: Under The Total
*Optimum Ou Line: 45 Or More Points
Washington Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings Double-Dime Bet
2** Play On: Under The Total
*Optimum Ou Line: 43.5 Or More Points
Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans Double-Dime Bet
2** Play On: Over The Total
*Optimum Ou Line: 48.5 Or Less Points

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Rooster
Arizona ml

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Tiger
Dolphins -118
Teaser - cardinals +9.5/49ers-2.5

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Vince Akins's Pick Pack
NFL Sunday Picks

Premium Plays

Matchup: Arizona at Dallas Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Under (45.5 -110) Line Source: CG Technology Posted on: October 31, 2014 @ 9:09:30 PM EDT 4.5-STAR Arizona and Dallas Under - No matter who is taking the snaps for Dallas in this game, look for the game plan to be conservative. If its Tony Romo, they are going to absolutely need to avoid him getting hit, eliminating any threat of a deep passing game. If its Brandon Weeden, look for an even heavier dose of running that normal from the Cowboys. With Arizona being able to even keep the Eagles offense in check, do not look for this to be a high scoring game. Last week, Dallas lost to Washington in overtime, 20-17. The Cowboys are 0-6-1 OU (-5.21 ppg) since Dec 17, 2011 when they lost 1-3 points last week (team=Cowboys and -3<=p:margin<0 and date>=20111217). That game with a total of 49.5 went under by 12.5 points. Teams that when under last game by more than 12 points when the total was at least 49 are 43-66-1 OU (p:total>=49 and p:ou margin<-12). Washington moved the ball consistently all game, picking up 409 yards of total offense. The Cardinals are 0-7-1 OU (-7.31 ppg) since Jan 10, 2009 as a dog when facing a team that allowed 400-plus yards of offense in their last game (team=Cardinals and D and 400<=opo:TY and date>=20090110). Arizona is the underdog here after being a small favorite in a last minute win over Philadelphia. The Cardinals are 0-7 OU (-8.93 ppg) since Nov 13, 2011 as a dog after playing as a favorite (team=Cardinals and D and p:F and date>=20111113). Philly had led almost the entire way, and the Cardinals did not lead after any of the first three quarters. The Cardinals are 0-8 OU (-8.31 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 the week after a win in which they did not have the lead after any of the first three quarters (team=Cardinals and p:W and p:M1<=0 and p:M2<=0 and p:M3<=0 and date>=20110918). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 36 points

Matchup: N.Y. Jets at Kansas City Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: N.Y. Jets (+10 -115) Line Source: Sportsbook.ag Posted on: October 31, 2014 @ 9:09:30 PM EDT 4-STAR Ny Jets over KANSAS CITY - The public perception on the Jets has gone done the drain, but what they really are just an inconsistent team. Just two weeks ago they had a chance to win on the final play at New England and the week prior to that had chances to tie the game late in the fourth quarter against Denver. The Jets are built to run and kill clock and the Chiefs are 24th in the league in run defense. Look for them to shorten this game and have a real chance to win. Kansas City is just 4-3 on the season, making them a risky play as this big of favorites. Teams that are more than TD-favorites that have not won at least 62.5% of their games on the year are 236-334-11 ATS (line<-7 and WP<62.5). However after lowering expectations with their week one loss, they've covered in each o the last six games. Teams that have covered in at least six straight games are 37-48-2 ATS (ats streak>=6). Kansas City is home for the second straight week after winning as a home favorite last week over St. Louis. The Chiefs are 0-9 ATS (-10.67 ppg) since Nov 11, 2007 at home after playing as a home favorite (team=Chiefs and H and p:HF and date>=20071111). They won that game handily, 34-7. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS as a favorite after scoring 34+ points at home (team=Chiefs and F and p:points>=34 and p:H and date>=20031116). Alex Smith was extremely efficient throwing the ball in that game, going 25-of-29 to pick apart the Rams. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS (-13.14 ppg) since Dec 20, 2003 as a favorite the week after a win in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average (team=Chiefs and F and p:W and Average((100.*tp:completions)@team and season and tp:season=season) / Average(tp:passes@team and season and tp:season=season) + 10<=100. * p:completions / p:passes and date>=20031220). New York meanwhile lost big to division rival Buffalo last week, 43-23. They are good at rebounding from those games. The Jets are 11-0 ATS after a loss at home against the Bills (team=Jets and p:HL and po:team=Bills). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: KANSAS CITY 20, Ny Jets 17

Matchup: Arizona at Dallas Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Arizona (+4 -110) Line Source: Stations Posted on: October 31, 2014 @ 9:09:30 PM EDT 4-STAR Arizona over DALLAS - We would like Arizona on this line if Tony Romo was 100% healthy but his struggles only further muddy the equation on the Dallas side. Grab this very fair line while you can as any further Tony Romo news is going to cause this to swing. Dallas is still the favorite here after losing outright as a huge 10-point favorite to Washington last week. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-9.64 ppg) since Nov 22, 2009 as a home favorite after a loss as a favorite (team=Cowboys and HF and p:FL and date>=20091122). That loss came in over, 20-17. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS (-8.67 ppg) since Nov 11, 2001 the week after playing an overtime loss (team=Cowboys and p:overtime=1 and p:L and date>=20011111). They had covered in the previous two games to that by 15.5 and four points. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-7.43 ppg) since Nov 22, 2009 as a favorite when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games (team=Cowboys and F and p:ats margin=20091122). Arizona is coming off a 24-20 last second win over Philadelphia as a small favorite. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS (8.94 ppg) since Nov 17, 2013 after a win as a favorite (team=Cardinals and p:FW and date>=20131117). Arizona did most of their work through the air in that game including the 75-yard game winner. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS (10.12 ppg) since Dec 02, 2012 the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards (team=Cardinals and 3 * p:rushing yards=20121202). Larry Fitzgerald had a huge game in the win with seven catches for 160 yards. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since October 6, 2013 after a win in which Larry Fitzgerald had more than 5 receptions (5<=Cardinals:Larry Fitzgerald:p:receptions and p:W and date>=20131006). They gave up an even bigger day to Philly receiver Jeremy Maclin, with 12 catches for 187 yards. Teams that allowed a receive to have 12+ catches last game are 72-59-2 ATS (max:po:receptions>=12). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Arizona by 4

Matchup: Oakland at Seattle Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Over (42.5 -110) Line Source: The Greek Posted on: October 31, 2014 @ 9:09:30 PM EDT 4-STAR Oakland and Seattle Over - Oakland has not been putting up enough points to win games and certainly aren't expected to win this one. As monster underdogs, look for them to take a few more chances, going both ways, that leads to a few more points for the visitors. Oakland is the only winless team left in the league, having lost their first seven games. The Seahawks are 9-0 OU (10.22 ppg) since Nov 14, 2010 when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak (team=Seahawks and o:streak<=-3 and date>=20101114). They were on the road last week as well, losing to Cleveland 23-13. The Raiders are 8-0 OU (17.31 ppg) since Oct 24, 2010 on the road the week after an away game (team=Raiders and A and p:A and NB and date>=20101024). Oakland threw for 316 yards in that loss but ran for just 71. Teams that are more than 10-point dogs after a game where they had more than three times as many passing yards as rushing yards last game are 98-58-4 ATS (line>10 and 3 * p:rushing yards=20111204). They've fallen behind early in most game and have been forced to give up the run. They've ran a league low 19 times per game this year. The Seahawks are 6-0 OU (12.83 ppg) since Nov 27, 2011 as a home favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25 (team=Seahawks and HF and Average(o:rushes@o:team and season)<25 and date>=20111127). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: SEATTLE 31, Oakland 24

Matchup: Denver at New England Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun) Play: New England (+3.5 -120) Line Source: Sportsbook.ag Posted on: October 31, 2014 @ 9:09:30 PM EDT 4.5-STAR NEW ENGLAND over Denver - Games where the Patriots are home underdogs are few and far between. They've won both games as a home underdog outright the last two years, and haven't been one prior to that since 2005. Going back to 2001, the Pats are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games as home dogs. We know these teams can play very similarly, but Denver's recent margins are driving this line too high. New England is already 4-0 this season and has won 13 straight home games. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS (6.08 ppg) since Dec 24, 1989 as a home dog when they won their last two home games (team=Patriots and HD and Sum(0=19891224). Denver meanwhile is on a feverish run their last four games, winning by margins of 21, 14, 25 and 14 the past four games. Teams that have won by double digits in each of their last four games are 39-54-4 ATS (p:margin>=10 and pp:margin>=10 and ppp:margin>=10 and pppp:margin>=10). New England hasn't had any issues stopping opponents winning streaks at home. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS (15.83 ppg) since Nov 18, 2012 at home when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak (team=Patriots and H and o:streak>=3 and date>=20121118). Denver's last two games were both primetime tills against San Francisco and San Diego, both coming at home. The Broncos are 0-8 ATS (-16.56 ppg) since Sep 30, 2007 on the road on artificial turf after playing at home in each of the previous two weeks (team=Broncos and A and surface=artificial and p:H and pp:H and date>=20070930). Last week they were able to score 35 against San Diego in the win. Teams that road favorite of more than a point after a game last week where they scored at least 30 points and did not win by more than 27 last game (A and line<-1 and p:points>=30 and NB and p:margin<=27). New England scored even more last game, thrashing Chicago 51-23 at home. Tom Brady threw for 354 yards and five touchdowns. Teams that threw for at least four touchdowns last game are 156-121-7 ATS (p:PTD>=4). Despite that huge passing performance, Julian Edelman was a non-factor. He had just one catch for 14 yards. The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (12.00 ppg) since Sep 22, 2013 at home after a game in which Julian Edelman didn't have a a 20+ yard reception (H and Patriots:Julian Edelman:p:longest reception<20 and date>=20130922). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND 31, Denver 27

Matchup: Baltimore at Pittsburgh Time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Pittsburgh (+2 -105) Line Source: bookmaker Posted on: October 31, 2014 @ 9:09:30 PM EDT 4-STAR PITTSBURGH over Baltimore - The Steelers are a team notorious for rising to the team, and the occasion, especially at home. They don't look great overall when losing to Tampa Bay at home and struggling against the Browns. But then they will dominate the Colts and put an amazing stretch of football against Houston. Having already lost to the Ravens this is a huge game for them and we expect their hot play to continue. Pittsburgh was a four-point dog against Indianapolis last week, covering by 21 pionts in a 17-point win. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS (7.67 ppg) since Nov 04, 2012 within 3 of pick when they covered by 10+ points last game (team=Steelers and -3<=line<=3 and 10<=p:ats margin and date>=20121104). The final score was 51-34, going over the total by 36 points in that win. Teams coming off a game that went over the total by at least 29.5 points last game are 176-134-7 ATS (p:ou margin>=29.5). Most of that was the Steelers who scored 28.5 points more than expected. Teams that scored at least 23.5 points more than expected last game are 75-55-4 ATS (p:dps>=23.5). Pittsburgh put a whopping 639 yards of total offense in the win. The Steelers are 10-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since October 29, 1995 at home the week after a game at home in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average (team=Steelers and H and p:H and tA(p:TY)+100<=p:TY and date>=19951029). Ben Roethlisberger put up 522 of those=yards and six touchdowns. Teams that threw for at least four touchdowns last game are 156-121-7 ATS (p:PTD>=4). It was another big game for Antonio Brown with 10 catches for 133 yards. The Steelers are 11-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) after a game that was not the season opener where Antonio Brown had more than 90 and less than 150 receiving yards (150>AntonioBrown:p:receiving yards>90 and game number>2). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: PITTSBURGH 27, Baltimore 20

Member Plays

Matchup: San Diego at Miami Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: San Diego (+2.5 -110) Line Source: William Hill Posted on: October 31, 2014 @ 9:09:30 PM EDT 4-STAR San Diego over MIAMI - We heard the narrative of San Diego struggling going to the East early this year and the Chargers came out and thrashed Buffalo, a place where these same Dolphins were dominated. We also heard it last season where they pulled off a big playoff upset in Cincinnati. This tired narrative is keeping the line down as they travel to Miami, where the home field advantage is quite small. Against non-AFC West foes, San Diego has thrived for the better part of a season. The Chargers are 7-0 ATS (14.50 ppg) since Dec 08, 2013 vs a non-divisional opponent (team=Chargers and NDIV and date>=20131208). This is their second straight game as a road dog after heading to Denver last Thursday night as a heavy road dog. The Chargers are 6-0-1 ATS (8.29 ppg) since Jan 01, 2012 as a road dog after playing as a dog (team=Chargers and AD and p:D and date>=20120101). Teams playing on the road for the second straight week carry an advantage. Teams on the road for the second straight games are 474-360-20 ATS since 2003 (A and p:A and season>=2003). Miami meanwhile is playing a lone home game, having won in comfortably in Jacksonville last week and traveling to Detroit next week. The Dolphins are 0-15 ATS (-13.3 ppg) since Oct 19, 2003 as a home favorite between away games, if they did not win by less than a TD (team=Dolphins and HF and p:A and n:A and date>=20031019 and (p:margin>=7 or p:margin<0)). San Diego lost in Denver last week, 35-21. They stuck with the running game as long as they could, but it was unsuccessful. They ultimately threw for 245 yards while running for just 61. The Chargers are 10-0-1 ATS (8.86 ppg) since Dec 17, 1989 as a road dog the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road (team=Chargers and AD and 3 * p:rushing yards=19891217). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: San Diego by7

Matchup: Tampa Bay at Cleveland Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Over (43 -110) Line Source: 5dimes Posted on: October 31, 2014 @ 9:09:30 PM EDT 4-STAR Tampa Bay and Cleveland Over - These teams are not highly thought of offenses, keeping this total quite modest. However, the Browns have scored 23.3 points per game, reaching at least 20 in all but one game this year. Meanwhile, the Bucs defense is a train wreck, despite decent play last week, allowing 31.9 ppg. There will be enough big play opportunities for these teams to send this over. Tampa Bay has lost and failed to cover in two straight games and will need to turn to their offense to try to pick things up. The Buccaneers are 7-0 OU (10.21 ppg) since Oct 13, 2013 when they lost and failed to cover their last two games (team=Buccaneers and streak<=-2 and ats streak<=-2 and date>=20131013). They need to shoot for big plays as they've not been able to steadily move the chains, picking up just 32.9% of third downs. The Browns are 7-0 OU (13.36 ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 when facing a team that has an average third down conversion rate of less than 35% (team=Browns and Sum(o:third downs made@ o:team and o:season) / Sum(o:third downs attempted@ o:team and o:season)<.35 and date>=20121216). Meanwhile, their defense is second worst in the league on third downs, part of an overall troubling picture where they a league worst 410 yards per game. The Browns are 6-0 OU (14.67 ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 at home when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date (team=Browns and H and oA(o:TY)>=375 and date>=20121216). Cleveland is coming off a 23-13 win against Oakland last week. They again did not commit any turnovers in that game, something that has not given the opponent easy scoring chances, but also something that's hard to sustain. The Browns are 8-0 OU (12.4 ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 after a game in which they committed no turnovers (team=Browns and p:turnovers=0 and date>=20121216). Neither team ran the ball well last week. Cleveland had just 39 yards on the ground while Tampa Bay was not much better with just 66 in an overtime loss to Minnesota. Teams that rushed for less than 50 yards last game and are playing a team that ran for less than 75 yards last game are 72-31-1 OU (p:RY<50 and op:RY<75 and season>=2002). A Cleveland team that has had such success running the ball did not have a carry of more than seven yards against the Raiders. Teams that did not have a carry of longer than seven yards last game are 83-60-2 OU (max:p:longest rush<=7). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 51 points

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: St. Louis at San Francisco Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun) Play: St. Louis (+10 -110) Line Source: Stations Posted on: October 31, 2014 @ 9:09:30 PM EDT 4.5-STAR St Louis over SAN FRANCISCO - Last week was a natural letdown game for a young team in the Rams after their thrilling win over Seattle the game prior. However that was their first big loss since week one, as even their first matchup against San Francisco was much closer than the final score would indicate. The 49ers have not shown anything this season to suggest they should be this big of favorites here. St Louis is on the road for the second straight game here after losing big in Kansas City last game. Teams on the road for the second straight games are 474-360-20 ATS since 2003 (A and p:A and season>=2003). St. Louis was competitive even last week, leading 7-0 after one quarter in the 34-7 loss. Teams that led by at least a TD after one quarter and allowed at least 33 points last game are 126-74-2 ATS (33<=po:points and 7<=p:M1). Even at half they were down just 10-7 before falling apart in the second half. Teams that were outscored by at least 24 points in the second half last game are 64-51-3 ATS (p:M2-p:margin>=24). They were seven point underdogs in that game and are even bigger dogs here. Teams that are at least 6.5 point underdogs after being at least TD dogs last game as well are 132-95-4 ATS since 2006 (line>=6.5 and p:line>= 7 and season>=2006). San Francisco was on bye last week but the game prior they were throughly destroyed by the Broncos, 42-17. Teams that are favored after a game where they scored no more than 19 points and allowed at least 37 are 61-90-3 ATS (po:points>=37 and F and p:points<=19). These teams met just three weeks ago with San Francisco winning 31-17 even though the Rams led at halftime. Teams that are more than eight point dogs after a double digit loss at home their first matchup against this team this season are 58-41-1 ATS (P:season=season and P:H and P:margin<-10 and line>8).