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Mike O' Connor
Sent: Fri, Oct 31, 2014 4:27 pm
Subject: NFL
(301) New Orleans -3 (-120) for 3-stars (Thursday night game)
(453) Jacksonville +10.5 -115 for 2-stars
(456) Cleveland -6.5 (-115) for 2-stars
(461) NY Jets +9 for 2-stars
(467) Denver -3 for 3-stars
(469) Oakland +14.5 (-115) for 2-stars
Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***New Orleans (-3 -120) 32 CAROLINA 19
Thu Oct-30-2014 at 05:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 301 Over/Under 49.0
New Orleans comes off of their most impressive victory of the season in their 44-23 home win last Sunday night against the Packers in a game where they generated 495 yards of offense at 7.6 yppl. They’ll travel to Carolina to face a Panthers team that came up just short last week in their 9-13 home loss to the Seahawks and will face the Saints this week in a battle for first place in the NFC South. The Panthers will need to produce some offense in this game if they expect to win but it will be a tall task against a Saints team that has some very good matchups working in their favor. On the ground New Orleans has a huge advantage as they have rushed for 133 yards at 5.2 ypr against teams that allow 121 yards at 4.4 ypr and will face a Panthers rush defense that is allowing 136 yards at 5.4 ypr to teams that gain 111 yards at 4.4 ypr on average. If the Saints can rush the ball well, their offense will be difficult to stop as quarterback Drew Brees is having another very good season.
With a really banged up offensive line that will be missing both starting guards as well as their left tackle, both running the ball and protecting Cam Newton will be an issue against a Saints pass rush that found their groove last week, sacking the Packers quarterbacks four times. So far this season Carolina has had no real ground game to speak of, averaging 93 yards at 3.6 ypr against teams that allow 111 yards at 4.2 ypr and will have a hard time getting any push with several new players along the offensive line. While traveling on a short week is not ideal, the Saints are the more talented team and shouldn’t be flat as this game is for the division lead and is in primetime. I have situations that go both ways in this game but my model is strong on the Saints (-7.1). Although the Panthers are +4 in turnover differential while the Saints are -6, New Orleans has suffered from negative fumble luck (losing 6 of their 7 fumbles on offense while their opponents have only lost 2 of their 6). I like the matchup for the Saints as they can win on the ground or in the air while the Panthers will be hard pressed to keep up behind a decimated offensive line. I’ll take the Saints -3 -120 for 3-stars up to -3 -125 and for 2-stars at up to -3 -135.
***Denver (-3) 32 NEW ENGLAND 20
Sun Nov-02-2014 at 01:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 467 Over/Under 54.5
Amazingly, Sunday will be the 23rd time, as either a head coach or defensive coordinator, Belichick has faced Manning. Belichick is 12-10 SU in those contests and with Brady at the helm the Patriots are 10-5 versus Manning. This is a different Broncos team, however, than those that Belichick has faced in the past. This Denver team not only has the best offense in the league, but also the best defense. Peyton Manning has been his usual off the charts self, but to me the real story of this season is that Denver now has a defense that can shut down the run (allowing just 69 yards at 3.3 ypr against teams the gain 120 yards at 4.3 ypr), can shut down the pass (allowing 5.4 yps to teams that average 6.4 yps) and can generate turnovers (+4 turnover differential). They match up well with a Patriots team that has struggled running the ball (averaging 107 yards at 4.0 ypr against teams that gain 112 yards at 4.2 ypr) and is below average in defending both the run and the pass. New England has had some injuries and inconsistent play along their offensive line and in their front seven defensively and as a result I expect the Broncos to control this game in the trenches. Denver averages 3.3 sacks against teams that allow 2.3 and should be able to generate pressure on Brady, especially if the Patriots have trouble running the ball, which I expect they will.
The Patriots lead the league with a +11 turnover differential but have been the beneficiary of some good fortune as they have lost only 3 of their 9 offensive fumbles while their opponents have lost 8 of their 11. New England is tough to beat at home but there are some very good matchups in this game that the Broncos should be able to exploit. Last season the Broncos led 24-0 before letting up a bit as the Patriots came back for a 34-31 win in Foxboro in a game where New England essentially conceded the run, allowing 280 rushing yards while Manning only passed for 132 yards at 3.5 yps. Then in the AFC Championship Game, Manning passed for 400 yards at 9.3 yps as the Patriots slowed down the run game (107 rushing yards at 3.8 ypr) in the Broncos 26-16 win in Denver. The point is that it is a pick your poison proposition as the Broncos will beat New England on the ground or in the air, as the Patriots won’t be able to stop both. Meanwhile, I don’t think that the New England offense will be able to keep up against a strong Denver defense. There are situations going both ways but my model is strong on Denver, favoring them by almost 11.5 points. I’ll take the Broncos -3 for 3-stars up to -3 -120 and for 2-stars at up to -130.
**Jacksonville (+10.5 -115) 18 CINCINNATI 21
Sun Nov-02-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 453 Over/Under 43.5
The Jaguars have played better recently, beating Cleveland 24-6 two weeks ago and then last week outgaining Miami 377 yards at 5.5 yppl to 327 yards at 5.9 yppl but turnovers from the quarterback position have been their downfall. Last week Blake Bortles threw 2 interceptions that were returned for touchdowns and that increased his total to four pick-sixes this year to go along with his 12 overall interceptions. He has to improve and the Jaguars offensive focus is on eliminating mistakes and turnovers this week against the Bengals. Otherwise, the Jaguars have gone under the radar in gradually improving the past four weeks and if not for the turnovers, they could be 3-1 their past 4 games. They have made some changes recently that have paid dividends, including getting Denard Robinson more involved in the offense. In their first six games, the Jaguars averaged 69.5 yards per game rushing. In the past two, they've averaged 180.5, including last week’s 176 yards at 5.9 ypr against a good Miami rush defense. Most of that has come from Robinson, who has run for 235 yards at 5.9 ypr in the past two games. They get a pretty good match-up here against a Bengals rush defense that has been disappointing so far this season in allowing 141 yards at 4.9 ypr against teams that gain 109 yards at 4.2 ypr. In addition, LB’s Rey Maualuga and Vontaze Burfict look like they’ll miss this game, leaving the Bengals run defense very vulnerable.
Cincinnati is the better team but it’s a terrible spot for Cincinnati as they come off of a much needed divisional win last week against the Ravens and will play host to division rival Cleveland on Thursday night. The Bengals expended a lot of emotional energy last week in the win against the Ravens and know that they have a short week upcoming. Facing a team that has played better than their record indicates recently, I expect the Bengals to be flat and the underachieving Jaguars to surprise them. This is too many points for a team in this spot to give up, so I’ll take the Jaguars +10.5 for 2-Stars down to +10.
**CLEVELAND (-6.5 -115) 26 Tampa Bay 12
Sun Nov-02-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 456 Over/Under 43.5
Tampa Bay was disappointing last week in a favorable spot at home coming off their bye and a blowout and facing a subpar Vikings team. They played uninspired football and lost 19-13 in overtime to the Vikings after giving up a late three point lead and now have to travel to Cleveland where the game-time temperature is forecasted to be in the upper 30’s. The Bucs have not been good in any respect this season with a bad offense that is only generating 295 yards at 5.1 yppl against teams that allow 368 yards at 5.9 yppl and a defense that is allowing 414 yards at 6.1 yppl to teams that average 370 yards at 5.8 yppl. They’ll face a Browns team that took care of business last week in a 23-13 home win against the Raiders after getting upset by the Jaguars the week prior. Having lost that game to the Jaguars, I expect the Browns to be prepared to play well as they’ll be on high alert for a letdown similar to the one against Jacksonville.
Cleveland is in the thick of the race in the AFC North and know that they can’t letup in this game. It appears that they’re also getting a bit healthier on a defensive line that had been decimated by injuries the past few weeks and that should help to shut down a Bucs run game that has only been able to generate 86 yards per game and could be without their top RB Doug Martin. The past two weeks teams have brought eight men in the box to shut down the Browns running game but they have a better matchup this week against the Cover 2 of the Bucs and their numbers should improve. Cleveland is the better team and my model favors them by about 14 points. I don’t have any situations but based on the model and what should be a good spot I’ll take Cleveland -6.5 -115 for 2-stars up to -7.
**NY Jets (+9) 19 KANSAS CITY 20
Sun Nov-02-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 461 Over/Under 42.0
The Jets were abysmal last week against the Bills, turning the ball over 6 times in their 23-43 loss. Geno Smith set the early tone with interceptions on three consecutive drives which helped the Bills open up a 24-7 lead before Michael Vick contributed three turnovers of his own. Meanwhile, Kansas City was busy putting a beat-down on the Rams at home in their convincing 34-7 win. Those dichotomous results actually set the Jets up in a favorable play on spot this week as New York qualifies in one of my favorite situations that is 161-90-10 (3-0 so far this season).
Interestingly, the Jets match-up fairly well with the Chiefs in this game. The Chiefs don’t throw downfield much and instead prefer to run the ball and emphasize a short passing approach that plays into what the Jets strengths are. New York defends the run well (allowing 87 yards at 3.6 ypr) but have been susceptible to downfield passing attacks. The Jets also rush the passer well and generate 3.0 sacks against teams that allow 2.13 per game. In addition, Kansas City doesn’t defend the run particularly well, allowing 111 yards at 4.8 ypr to teams that gain 108 yards at 4.2 ypr. Also, there is a lot of familiarity between these two teams as Jets offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg was Andy Reid’s OC in Philadelphia while Bob Sutton was a defensive coach with the Jets from 2000-2012. On top of that, Michael Vick played for Reid in Philadelphia from 2009-2012.
The Jets should get a boost from Vick this week as they had lost confidence in Geno Smith and I expect a better overall performance from New York after playing flat in the loss to the Bills. Kansas City has had unbelievable success on third down with #3 rankings on both offense and defense while the Jets rank #18 and #23. There is a lot of variance in that statistic and those rates likely won’t continue as some regression to the mean may be expected. In addition, the Jets have the worst turnover differential in the league by far at -15 and although Vick has been turnover prone as well, with Smith out and Vick getting reps with the first team, that number should improve. The Jets should keep this one close and based on the situation and match-ups, I’ll take the Jets +9 for 2-stars down to +8.5.
**Oakland (+14.5 -115) 18 SEATTLE: 25
Sun Nov-02-2014 at 01:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 469 Over/Under 43.0
The Raiders are now 0-7 after their 13-23 loss last week in Cleveland and have the daunting task of travelling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. The do have some technical support on their side, however, as they qualify in 496-405-14, 50-20 and 49-23-2 situations along with a 21-2 subset that plays on winless teams in the mid to late part of the season. Oakland has a good chance to keep this one close as outside of their season opening 36-16 win against the Packers, Seattle has played all six other games to a final score within ten points. Meanwhile, since their bye week and a change to interim head coach Tony Sparano, the Raiders have played three winning teams in the Chargers, Cardinals and Browns and have not lost by more than 11 points. The Seahawks are dealing with some injuries along their offensive line and in their front seven and while it’s difficult to make a case statistically for the Raiders, I like the situations and as a result I’ll take the Raiders +14.5 -115 for 2-stars down to +14
Sent: Fri, Oct 31, 2014 4:27 pm
Subject: NFL
(301) New Orleans -3 (-120) for 3-stars (Thursday night game)
(453) Jacksonville +10.5 -115 for 2-stars
(456) Cleveland -6.5 (-115) for 2-stars
(461) NY Jets +9 for 2-stars
(467) Denver -3 for 3-stars
(469) Oakland +14.5 (-115) for 2-stars
Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***New Orleans (-3 -120) 32 CAROLINA 19
Thu Oct-30-2014 at 05:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 301 Over/Under 49.0
New Orleans comes off of their most impressive victory of the season in their 44-23 home win last Sunday night against the Packers in a game where they generated 495 yards of offense at 7.6 yppl. They’ll travel to Carolina to face a Panthers team that came up just short last week in their 9-13 home loss to the Seahawks and will face the Saints this week in a battle for first place in the NFC South. The Panthers will need to produce some offense in this game if they expect to win but it will be a tall task against a Saints team that has some very good matchups working in their favor. On the ground New Orleans has a huge advantage as they have rushed for 133 yards at 5.2 ypr against teams that allow 121 yards at 4.4 ypr and will face a Panthers rush defense that is allowing 136 yards at 5.4 ypr to teams that gain 111 yards at 4.4 ypr on average. If the Saints can rush the ball well, their offense will be difficult to stop as quarterback Drew Brees is having another very good season.
With a really banged up offensive line that will be missing both starting guards as well as their left tackle, both running the ball and protecting Cam Newton will be an issue against a Saints pass rush that found their groove last week, sacking the Packers quarterbacks four times. So far this season Carolina has had no real ground game to speak of, averaging 93 yards at 3.6 ypr against teams that allow 111 yards at 4.2 ypr and will have a hard time getting any push with several new players along the offensive line. While traveling on a short week is not ideal, the Saints are the more talented team and shouldn’t be flat as this game is for the division lead and is in primetime. I have situations that go both ways in this game but my model is strong on the Saints (-7.1). Although the Panthers are +4 in turnover differential while the Saints are -6, New Orleans has suffered from negative fumble luck (losing 6 of their 7 fumbles on offense while their opponents have only lost 2 of their 6). I like the matchup for the Saints as they can win on the ground or in the air while the Panthers will be hard pressed to keep up behind a decimated offensive line. I’ll take the Saints -3 -120 for 3-stars up to -3 -125 and for 2-stars at up to -3 -135.
***Denver (-3) 32 NEW ENGLAND 20
Sun Nov-02-2014 at 01:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 467 Over/Under 54.5
Amazingly, Sunday will be the 23rd time, as either a head coach or defensive coordinator, Belichick has faced Manning. Belichick is 12-10 SU in those contests and with Brady at the helm the Patriots are 10-5 versus Manning. This is a different Broncos team, however, than those that Belichick has faced in the past. This Denver team not only has the best offense in the league, but also the best defense. Peyton Manning has been his usual off the charts self, but to me the real story of this season is that Denver now has a defense that can shut down the run (allowing just 69 yards at 3.3 ypr against teams the gain 120 yards at 4.3 ypr), can shut down the pass (allowing 5.4 yps to teams that average 6.4 yps) and can generate turnovers (+4 turnover differential). They match up well with a Patriots team that has struggled running the ball (averaging 107 yards at 4.0 ypr against teams that gain 112 yards at 4.2 ypr) and is below average in defending both the run and the pass. New England has had some injuries and inconsistent play along their offensive line and in their front seven defensively and as a result I expect the Broncos to control this game in the trenches. Denver averages 3.3 sacks against teams that allow 2.3 and should be able to generate pressure on Brady, especially if the Patriots have trouble running the ball, which I expect they will.
The Patriots lead the league with a +11 turnover differential but have been the beneficiary of some good fortune as they have lost only 3 of their 9 offensive fumbles while their opponents have lost 8 of their 11. New England is tough to beat at home but there are some very good matchups in this game that the Broncos should be able to exploit. Last season the Broncos led 24-0 before letting up a bit as the Patriots came back for a 34-31 win in Foxboro in a game where New England essentially conceded the run, allowing 280 rushing yards while Manning only passed for 132 yards at 3.5 yps. Then in the AFC Championship Game, Manning passed for 400 yards at 9.3 yps as the Patriots slowed down the run game (107 rushing yards at 3.8 ypr) in the Broncos 26-16 win in Denver. The point is that it is a pick your poison proposition as the Broncos will beat New England on the ground or in the air, as the Patriots won’t be able to stop both. Meanwhile, I don’t think that the New England offense will be able to keep up against a strong Denver defense. There are situations going both ways but my model is strong on Denver, favoring them by almost 11.5 points. I’ll take the Broncos -3 for 3-stars up to -3 -120 and for 2-stars at up to -130.
**Jacksonville (+10.5 -115) 18 CINCINNATI 21
Sun Nov-02-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 453 Over/Under 43.5
The Jaguars have played better recently, beating Cleveland 24-6 two weeks ago and then last week outgaining Miami 377 yards at 5.5 yppl to 327 yards at 5.9 yppl but turnovers from the quarterback position have been their downfall. Last week Blake Bortles threw 2 interceptions that were returned for touchdowns and that increased his total to four pick-sixes this year to go along with his 12 overall interceptions. He has to improve and the Jaguars offensive focus is on eliminating mistakes and turnovers this week against the Bengals. Otherwise, the Jaguars have gone under the radar in gradually improving the past four weeks and if not for the turnovers, they could be 3-1 their past 4 games. They have made some changes recently that have paid dividends, including getting Denard Robinson more involved in the offense. In their first six games, the Jaguars averaged 69.5 yards per game rushing. In the past two, they've averaged 180.5, including last week’s 176 yards at 5.9 ypr against a good Miami rush defense. Most of that has come from Robinson, who has run for 235 yards at 5.9 ypr in the past two games. They get a pretty good match-up here against a Bengals rush defense that has been disappointing so far this season in allowing 141 yards at 4.9 ypr against teams that gain 109 yards at 4.2 ypr. In addition, LB’s Rey Maualuga and Vontaze Burfict look like they’ll miss this game, leaving the Bengals run defense very vulnerable.
Cincinnati is the better team but it’s a terrible spot for Cincinnati as they come off of a much needed divisional win last week against the Ravens and will play host to division rival Cleveland on Thursday night. The Bengals expended a lot of emotional energy last week in the win against the Ravens and know that they have a short week upcoming. Facing a team that has played better than their record indicates recently, I expect the Bengals to be flat and the underachieving Jaguars to surprise them. This is too many points for a team in this spot to give up, so I’ll take the Jaguars +10.5 for 2-Stars down to +10.
**CLEVELAND (-6.5 -115) 26 Tampa Bay 12
Sun Nov-02-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 456 Over/Under 43.5
Tampa Bay was disappointing last week in a favorable spot at home coming off their bye and a blowout and facing a subpar Vikings team. They played uninspired football and lost 19-13 in overtime to the Vikings after giving up a late three point lead and now have to travel to Cleveland where the game-time temperature is forecasted to be in the upper 30’s. The Bucs have not been good in any respect this season with a bad offense that is only generating 295 yards at 5.1 yppl against teams that allow 368 yards at 5.9 yppl and a defense that is allowing 414 yards at 6.1 yppl to teams that average 370 yards at 5.8 yppl. They’ll face a Browns team that took care of business last week in a 23-13 home win against the Raiders after getting upset by the Jaguars the week prior. Having lost that game to the Jaguars, I expect the Browns to be prepared to play well as they’ll be on high alert for a letdown similar to the one against Jacksonville.
Cleveland is in the thick of the race in the AFC North and know that they can’t letup in this game. It appears that they’re also getting a bit healthier on a defensive line that had been decimated by injuries the past few weeks and that should help to shut down a Bucs run game that has only been able to generate 86 yards per game and could be without their top RB Doug Martin. The past two weeks teams have brought eight men in the box to shut down the Browns running game but they have a better matchup this week against the Cover 2 of the Bucs and their numbers should improve. Cleveland is the better team and my model favors them by about 14 points. I don’t have any situations but based on the model and what should be a good spot I’ll take Cleveland -6.5 -115 for 2-stars up to -7.
**NY Jets (+9) 19 KANSAS CITY 20
Sun Nov-02-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 461 Over/Under 42.0
The Jets were abysmal last week against the Bills, turning the ball over 6 times in their 23-43 loss. Geno Smith set the early tone with interceptions on three consecutive drives which helped the Bills open up a 24-7 lead before Michael Vick contributed three turnovers of his own. Meanwhile, Kansas City was busy putting a beat-down on the Rams at home in their convincing 34-7 win. Those dichotomous results actually set the Jets up in a favorable play on spot this week as New York qualifies in one of my favorite situations that is 161-90-10 (3-0 so far this season).
Interestingly, the Jets match-up fairly well with the Chiefs in this game. The Chiefs don’t throw downfield much and instead prefer to run the ball and emphasize a short passing approach that plays into what the Jets strengths are. New York defends the run well (allowing 87 yards at 3.6 ypr) but have been susceptible to downfield passing attacks. The Jets also rush the passer well and generate 3.0 sacks against teams that allow 2.13 per game. In addition, Kansas City doesn’t defend the run particularly well, allowing 111 yards at 4.8 ypr to teams that gain 108 yards at 4.2 ypr. Also, there is a lot of familiarity between these two teams as Jets offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg was Andy Reid’s OC in Philadelphia while Bob Sutton was a defensive coach with the Jets from 2000-2012. On top of that, Michael Vick played for Reid in Philadelphia from 2009-2012.
The Jets should get a boost from Vick this week as they had lost confidence in Geno Smith and I expect a better overall performance from New York after playing flat in the loss to the Bills. Kansas City has had unbelievable success on third down with #3 rankings on both offense and defense while the Jets rank #18 and #23. There is a lot of variance in that statistic and those rates likely won’t continue as some regression to the mean may be expected. In addition, the Jets have the worst turnover differential in the league by far at -15 and although Vick has been turnover prone as well, with Smith out and Vick getting reps with the first team, that number should improve. The Jets should keep this one close and based on the situation and match-ups, I’ll take the Jets +9 for 2-stars down to +8.5.
**Oakland (+14.5 -115) 18 SEATTLE: 25
Sun Nov-02-2014 at 01:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 469 Over/Under 43.0
The Raiders are now 0-7 after their 13-23 loss last week in Cleveland and have the daunting task of travelling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. The do have some technical support on their side, however, as they qualify in 496-405-14, 50-20 and 49-23-2 situations along with a 21-2 subset that plays on winless teams in the mid to late part of the season. Oakland has a good chance to keep this one close as outside of their season opening 36-16 win against the Packers, Seattle has played all six other games to a final score within ten points. Meanwhile, since their bye week and a change to interim head coach Tony Sparano, the Raiders have played three winning teams in the Chargers, Cardinals and Browns and have not lost by more than 11 points. The Seahawks are dealing with some injuries along their offensive line and in their front seven and while it’s difficult to make a case statistically for the Raiders, I like the situations and as a result I’ll take the Raiders +14.5 -115 for 2-stars down to +14
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