11-2-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AC Dinero

Baltimore Ravens -1.0/-110

Kansas City Chiefs -9.0/-110

Miami Dolphins -1.0/-120

Cleveland Browns -6.5/-113

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Alexander

San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: 1.5/-103 San Diego Chargers Play Title: NFL Game of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cleveland Browns (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: -7.0/106 Cleveland Browns Play Title: Play on Cleveland

Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: 3.0/-120 Arizona Cardinals Play Title: Play on Arizona

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: -10.0/-105 Cincinnati Bengals Play Title: Play on Cincinnati

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: 3.0/-105 New England Patriots Play Title: Play on New England

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bondi

5 Baltimore
3 Houston and minny

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Ross King

10* New York Jets 10.0/-115
4* Houston Texans Money Line: 115
3* Cleveland Browns Money Line: -280

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Jordan

NFL Game of the Month Denver Broncos -3.0/-106

First place Battle Arizona Cardinals 2.5/100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Youngstown Connection

$25.00 NFL Play #1

#451 San Diego +115 1PM Eastern

Line from CRIS

Line as of 340AM Eastern 11/2/14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports bank
500*
houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports authority
dallas

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Millionaires club
lock
miami

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne root
no limit
baltimore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WAYNE ROOT
MILLIONAIRE
denver

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 2 2014 1:00PM
457 WAS 1.0(-110) 5Dimes vs 458 MIN 2* Play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VegasButcher (Full NFL Card)

Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5

This Jags game is sandwiched between two divisional games for the Bengals (BAL and CLE next Thursday) so could be a let-down spot. Bengals will be without Burfict and Maualuga, which could open up lanes for Jacksonville’s running game. It’s important for them to have success on the ground, as rookie QB Bortles has been way too turnover prone lately. Jags lost to Miami last week by 14, but Bortles threw two pick-6’s in the game. Jacksonvill’es 5.5 YPP wasn’t far off from Miami’s 5.8 YPP average, so clearly the difference in the game were the TO’s. Minimizing mistakes will be key, and that starts with the run game. Plus it won’t hurt that Cincy’s runD ranks dead last in the league. Many people might not be aware of this, but Jacksonville’s D ranks 11th in the league. And though AJ Green is back, Cincy will be without Bernard with rookie Hill getting a start. I think Jacksonville has enough factors in their favor to keep this game close and I like the situational spot for them as well.

Tampa Bay Bucks +7 (-120)

The one factor that could come into play here is Tampa’s 11th ranked rushD. This is the ‘strength’ of this team as they pretty much suck at everything else. And since Cleveland’s stud center Alex Mack went down with a year-ending injury, Cleveland has really struggled running the ball against JAX and OAK in two consecutive games. By comparison, Cleveland’s runD ranks 30th in the league and that’s another factor in Tampa’s favor. Hugely disappointing second year back Doug Martin is out, and in comes in a talent player in Rainey and a rookie Chris Sims, who is making his debut. NFL is all about ‘competition’ and ‘opportunity’ and both of these runners will get theirs tonight (though Rainey already had a chance earlier against ATL but he was terrible in that one with 2 critical fumbles). I think the Browns will need a big game from Hoyer to cover this number, and he’ll be without Cameron his top TE. Prior to the season, Bookmakers listed Cleveland as -2.5 home favorite in this game. Clearly I think this number is just a tad inflated today.

New York Jets +8

Michael Vick is a starter in this one and this is a big factor. He had a full week to work with the 1st stringers and I’d expect a much more confident Jets offensive squad here. The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS on the season and coming off a blowout win at home. Jets are 1-6 ATS on the year and are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss at home. Clearly, KC is the play today right? Wrong. This is the NFL and teams make adjustments, in particular after blowout losses. Jets are going with Vick and let’s not forget that it’ll be Harvin’s 2nd week with the offense as well. Besides, last time the Jets got embarrassed with a loss (31-0 to SD), they came back with a strong effort against Denver (should have covered if not for a pick-6 thrown by Geno in the final seconds) and @ New England (got their game-winning FG attempt blocked). This team also had a chance to win @ Green Bay (lost by 7), against Chicago at home (lost by 8 but I felt they were the better team), and lost by 7 to DET. I think we are getting too many points here.

Arizona Cardinals +1.5

One important factor to consider here: Arizona ranks 6th in runD, 5th in Adjusted Line Yards allowed, and 1st in Open Field rank. They do not give up a lot of rushing yards, especially big running plays that the Cowboys have had such success with this year. Now with Romo out and Weeden in, expect the Cardinals to focus on shutting down the run game and letting Dallas’ QB beat them. Both Jefferson (safety) and Peterson (CB) are active for Arizona. While Romo’s absence is big, it’s important to note that Dallas lost their every-down linebacker in Justin Durant. Maybe today is finally the week when this defense finally shows its ‘true colors’. In any case, Arizona is 6-1 on the year with their only loss @ Denver this season. This is a very good team overall. With Dallas starting Weeden, I think there’s only one way to lean in this one.

St Louis Rams +10.5

Last year San Fran beat the Rams 35-11 on the road as a -3 point road favorite early in the season. They then struggled to put that team away in the rematch, winning 23-13 as a -7.5 home favorite. This season, San Fran was a -3 ponit road favorite and blew away the Rams 31-17. In the rematch today, they are listed as a -11 home favorite, a full 8 points higher (standard adjustment is about 6-6.5). Let’s not forget that the Rams regrouped after that blowout win to the 49ers and beat Seattle at home the following week. Now they are once again coming off a blowout loss, and will be expected to bounce-back against a divisional opponent. I think there’s definitely pure line-value on them.

New England Patriots +3

Last year when I was at the Bears @ Patriots game at Foxborough, someone mentioned a stat where the Pats are 33-0 at home against an AFC opponent, Tom Brady is on a 41-0 home run against the AFC (remember he missed most of 2008 season with an injury), and Pats now have won 12 straight at home dating back to last year. Honestly, that’s all I need here as well as the fact that my model seems New England as a -1 point home favorite in this one. I’ll grab a FG with confidence.

Baltimore Ravens PK

Ignoring what happened last week, here are Pittsburgh’s performances this season

09/07: barely beat CLE at home

09/11: got dominated by the Ravens

09/21: blew away a bad Carolina team

09/28: lost to Tampa at home

10/05: barely beat JAX, needing a pick-6 to secure an 8-point win

10/12: got destroyed by CLE on the road

10/20: got outplayed by HOU (allowed 6.2 YPP while only had 5.3 YPP themselves) and were lucky that the Texans self-destructed with terrible TO’s in the end of the 2nd half.

I know Roethlisberger went for 522 yards and 6 TD’s yesterday, but part of that was because Colts lost a number of key defenders in the game. Even so, it was an 8-point game at the end of the 3rd quarter and if not for Andrew Luck’s slip-up and a safety due to it, who knows what the outcome could have been. Roethlisberger could have had such a huge game, and the Steelers could have actually lost that one as was definitely a possibility late. That shows you how horrific this Steelers defense is. Baltimore is a better team, they have the superior defense, and they’re coming off a bad loss @ Cincinnati. I like their chances of getting it done tonight, as I don’t see Roethlisberger having such a huge game two weeks in a row.

Note

Unreal

Redskins RB Silas Redd is inactive for Sunday's Week 9 game at Minnesota after injuring his back in the morning bus crash.

The Redskins buses crashed into each other on the way to the stadium Sunday morning. Redd is the only one who suffered any injuries, and his appears minor.