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Washington Wizards -1.5
This one opened -2 NYK, and now has moved a full 3 points. Seems like bettors aren’t impressed with New York’s 2-1 start. They got creamed by the Bulls in the opening game of the season, beat CLE on the road in a very emotional game for the Cavs (LeBron’s 1st game back home), and then struggled with a Charlotte squad that was playing on a b2b after a tough home loss against the Wizards the night before. The Knicks rank 27th in DefEff and 25th in eFG% against, while allowing 75% FG% at the rim, the 4th worst mark in the league. I’d expect a lot of P&R sets for the Wizards in the half-court, to take advantage of the slow-footed Knicks defense
Milwaukee Bucks +4.5
The Pacers continue to play without West, Hill, and Watson, but they could also be without Stuckey tonight. Milwaukee has Sanders and Henson, who can match up with Hibbert, and they also have pretty solid depth. They rank 5th in DefEff and 10th in eFG% allowed, so defensively this team has played well. Their issue are turnovers on the offensive end, as they rank dead-last in TO%. Indiana though doesn’t force many TO’s defensively (27th in Def TO-rate). Milwaukee should have won @ Charlotte (lead by 7.9 points throughout that one) in their first road game of the year and I think they’ll have a good chance tonight as well. As of right now, they’re a better team from my perspective.
Portland Trail Blazers +2.5
The Cavs lost to NYK at home and then needed OT to squeak by Chicago on the road, after Rose and Gibson got hurt. Nobody said ‘it will be easy’ as it’s going to take some time for this team to jell. By comparison, Portland is coming off two straight losses, one being at home. Portland lost to Sacramento which ranks 7th in Def-Eff (#5 in eFG%-a) and Golden State which is #1 in Def-Eff (#2 in eFG%-a). By comparison, Cleveland ranks 22nd in Def-Eff and 26th in eFG%-a. In addition, their offensive eFG% is only 45.4%, which ranks 25th in the league. I know the sample-size is very small (2 games only), but my point here is that this Cavs team is not functioning ‘on all cylinders’ just yet, and it will truly take some time to get all the pieces to fit together. Portland, has had their ‘pieces’ together for a while now. They don’t need to learn to play with one another, they just need to play better. Being at home (31-10 @ 76% win-rate last year) and facing a sub-par defense should help. In addition, let’s look at this number. Against GSW, Portland was a -3.5 home favorite. Now against the Cavs, they are +2.5 home underdogs. Is Cleveland really 6 points better than the Dubs, which some people believe is the best team in the West? If you can answer that question, then you should be able to tell if there is some line-value or not in this game.
Washington Wizards -1.5
This one opened -2 NYK, and now has moved a full 3 points. Seems like bettors aren’t impressed with New York’s 2-1 start. They got creamed by the Bulls in the opening game of the season, beat CLE on the road in a very emotional game for the Cavs (LeBron’s 1st game back home), and then struggled with a Charlotte squad that was playing on a b2b after a tough home loss against the Wizards the night before. The Knicks rank 27th in DefEff and 25th in eFG% against, while allowing 75% FG% at the rim, the 4th worst mark in the league. I’d expect a lot of P&R sets for the Wizards in the half-court, to take advantage of the slow-footed Knicks defense
Milwaukee Bucks +4.5
The Pacers continue to play without West, Hill, and Watson, but they could also be without Stuckey tonight. Milwaukee has Sanders and Henson, who can match up with Hibbert, and they also have pretty solid depth. They rank 5th in DefEff and 10th in eFG% allowed, so defensively this team has played well. Their issue are turnovers on the offensive end, as they rank dead-last in TO%. Indiana though doesn’t force many TO’s defensively (27th in Def TO-rate). Milwaukee should have won @ Charlotte (lead by 7.9 points throughout that one) in their first road game of the year and I think they’ll have a good chance tonight as well. As of right now, they’re a better team from my perspective.
Portland Trail Blazers +2.5
The Cavs lost to NYK at home and then needed OT to squeak by Chicago on the road, after Rose and Gibson got hurt. Nobody said ‘it will be easy’ as it’s going to take some time for this team to jell. By comparison, Portland is coming off two straight losses, one being at home. Portland lost to Sacramento which ranks 7th in Def-Eff (#5 in eFG%-a) and Golden State which is #1 in Def-Eff (#2 in eFG%-a). By comparison, Cleveland ranks 22nd in Def-Eff and 26th in eFG%-a. In addition, their offensive eFG% is only 45.4%, which ranks 25th in the league. I know the sample-size is very small (2 games only), but my point here is that this Cavs team is not functioning ‘on all cylinders’ just yet, and it will truly take some time to get all the pieces to fit together. Portland, has had their ‘pieces’ together for a while now. They don’t need to learn to play with one another, they just need to play better. Being at home (31-10 @ 76% win-rate last year) and facing a sub-par defense should help. In addition, let’s look at this number. Against GSW, Portland was a -3.5 home favorite. Now against the Cavs, they are +2.5 home underdogs. Is Cleveland really 6 points better than the Dubs, which some people believe is the best team in the West? If you can answer that question, then you should be able to tell if there is some line-value or not in this game.
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