11-9-14

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Mark Franco

Chiefs Pick
Saints – 5
Ravens – 9.5
Cardinals – 6.5
Packers – 7

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Tri Lambda Sun Nov 9th, 2014 1:00pm EST

7 Unit Side Play · [256] Buffalo Bills

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Jack Jones

7-1-1 record Saturday

NFL

25* Detroit Lions -2.5
20* Atlanta Falcons -2.5
20* St. Louis Rams +7
15* Tennessee Titans +10
15* NY Jets +4
15* Seattle Seahawks -8

NBA

15* Los Angeles Lakers +3.5

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James Jones

3 Buffalo
2 Detroit
1 Chi/GB over

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Vegas Betting Experts

Detroit - 3 at even $
Detroit Team Total Over 23 at - 115

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Carolina sports:

5- ariz under,
4- giants under,
3- mia, tb

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Big money:

Atl

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Preferred picks:

3- tb, buff

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Mike O'Connor/Dr. Bob's NFL picks other than to fade them. Here you go nonetheless:

(254)**Detroit -2.5 (-115)
(256)**Buffalo pk
(257)**San Francisco +5.5
(262)***NY Jets +3.5 (-105)

Good luck.
NFL Analysis byMike O'Connor

***NY JETS (+3.5-105) 27 Pittsburgh 21

SunNov-09-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 262 Over/Under 45.5
The Steelers have beencruising along the past three weeks, winning all three home games against theTexans, Colts and the Ravens in convincing fashion. They are a hot team rightnow and the public will be pounding the Steelers hard at the betting windows thisweek as they travel to take on the lowly Jets who have lost eight consecutivegames and are just 1-7-1 ATS this season. This divergence in performance ofcourse sets the Jets up in multiple situations that buys on teams that areunder-performing and sells on teams that may be over-performing recently. Ofthose situations, the Jets qualify once again in one of my favorites, which is161-91-10 and has won just about every year. They also qualify in 60-27-5 and51-21-4 angles while the Steelers qualify in several negative situations thatare 84-143-8 and 37-87-6. In addition to those, the Steelers have hadconsistent problems in let-down spots in the recent past and just this seasonlost to the Bucs as a 7.5 point favorite after a big Sunday night win againstthe Panthers. They are in a tough spot to be motivated here coming off thosethree consecutive big wins, two in primetime and looking forward to anotherprimetime Monday night game next week.

Meanwhile, the Jets have not been as bad as their record indicates and willgive the Steelers problems in this matchup. The main reason for the Jets poorrecord is their -15 turnover differential (worst in the league). With Vick asthe starter last week, the Jets didn’t turn the ball over and had chances forthe cover in Kansas City, outgaining the Chiefs 364-309 yards. New York hastalent and can both run the ball and defend the run well. Against a Steelersteam that is not as good as they have looked recently, in a flat spot andgetting points at home, I’ll take the contrarian position and support the Jets.Play 3-stars on New York +3.5 down to +3 and for 2-stars as low as +3 -120.
**DETROIT (-2.5-115) 25 Miami 15

SunNov-09-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 254 Over/Under 43.5
Since starting the season1-2 the Dolphins have reeled off four of their last five with their only lossby a field goal to the Packers in a game where they blew a late lead. They areone of the hottest teams in the NFL right now after destroying the Chargers37-0 last week in a game where they completely dominated (441 yards at 6.0 ypplto 178 yards at 3.7 yppl with a +4 in net sacks and a +4 turnoverdifferential). That sort of performance certainly got the attention of theLions, who are coming off of a dramatic 22-21 win in London before their byelast week. Both teams have been playing well but Detroit had done so despitenot having several of their most important offensive players for a few weeksprior to their bye in WR Calvin Johnson and RB Reggie Bush (as well as injuriesto their top three tight ends). With the time to rest and heal up, it lookslike Detroit will have Johnson and Bush back for sure, and possibly a couple oftheir tight ends as well.

Miami has run the ball well this season but will have a tough time facing my #2rush defense in Detroit that has allowed 74 yards at 3.3 ypr against teams thatgain 111 yards at 4.3 ypr on average. And although Ryan Tannehill has puttogether some good games recently, on the season he is only averaging 6.0 ypsagainst teams that allow 6.4 yps. He’ll have his toughest test of the seasonthis week facing a very good pass rush that is generating 3 sacks per game andan overall pass defense that has been excellent in allowing 216 yards at 5.7yps to teams that gain 237 yards at 6.2 yps. Add to the mix the fact that Miamiis allowing sacks on 5.9 percent of the Dolphins’ drop backs and it could be along day for Tannehill. Meanwhile, the Lions will get some playmakers back onoffense including the best WR in the game in Calvin Johnson and he will make adifference. This offense has not played to their potential yet as they havebeen learning a new system and have had lots of injuries to deal with but Isuspect that we’ll begin to see what they are capable of when close to fullyhealthy this week. There are situations going both ways in this game but mymodel favors Detroit by -8.2 points when adjusting for the return of CalvinJohnson. I like the fact that the Lions are at home, off the bye, are thebetter team overall and are laying less than a field goal. On the other side,the Dolphins are on the road in a non-conference match-up and are lookingforward to a big home divisional game in primetime on Thursday night againstthe Bills. I’ll take Detroit -2.5 -115 for 2-stars up to -3.
**San Francisco(+5.5)26 NEW ORLEANS 24

SunNov-09-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 257 Over/Under 49.0
The 49ers played poorlylast week coming off of their bye, losing 10-13 to the Rams as 10.5 pointfavorites. Combined with their 17-42 loss just before their bye to the Broncos,the 49ers have now lost two straight and are just 4-4 on the season. Giventhose circumstances, San Francisco qualifies in a good 115-65-6 situation thatplays on teams coming off two losses. In addition, since Harbaugh has arrivedas coach, the 49ers have not lost three games in a row. The 49ers are aresilient team that has demonstrated the ability to play well in adversecircumstances. Last season after losing two in a row and starting 1-2, the49ers went to St. Louis and blasted the Rams 35-11. Then this season afterlosing two in a row and starting 1-2, they beat the Eagles 26-21 in a game thatwasn’t as close as the final score indicated (their defense didn’t allow apoint as all three Eagles touchdowns were of the non-offensive variety). Lastseason the 49ers finished their season with four road games (all playoff orplayoff type games) and beat the Cardinals in Arizona, the Packers in Green Bayin sub-zero temperatures, the Panthers in Carolina and then lost in Seattle ina game that was decided in the final moments. This is a tough, resilient teamthat seems to play best when their backs are up against the wall. Based onthat, I like the 49ers to bounce back in this game just as everyone is writingthem off. It obviously won’t be easy against a Saints team that has played wellrecently, winning their last two, and have played lights out at home (20-0 and18-2 ATS at home under Payton since 2011). The 49ers lost last year in asimilar spot in New Orleans 20-23 and I expect another close game here.

The 49ers defense has been very good both against the run and the pass whiletheir offense has not played up to their potential so far this season,particularly in their last two games. On the other side, the Saints offense hasbeen excellent but their defense has not been good in allowing 371 yards at 6.1yppl to teams that gain 342 yards at 5.5 yppl on average. The 49ers offensewill have to make the most of their offensive opportunities and I believe thatthey will with a focused effort. I like the 49ers +5.5 for 2-stars down to+4.5.
**BUFFALO (pk) 25Kansas City 16

SunNov-09-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 256 Over/Under 41.5
Kansas City has been a verygood team this season due in large part to their ability thus far to make key plays.The Chiefs hold a #2 ranking in 3rd down conversions offensively (52%) and a#30 ranking in allowing just 33% of their defensive 3rd down stopopportunities. Otherwise, they are a team with a statistical profile that doessome things well (rushing offense and pass defense) and doesn’t do other thingsbetter than average (passing offense and rush defense). The Chiefs have a lackof downfield passing attack and it hasn’t hurt them thus far as they haverelied on short passes and a strong backfield but I expect that to come to anend as they face a tough Bills defense that can really shut down the run(allowing 93 yards at 3.7 ypr to teams that gain 113 yards at 4.3 ypr) andpressure the passer (3.3 sacks per game). Buffalo can shorten the field by crowdingthe line of scrimmage as the Chiefs don’t have a downfield attack that canexploit the Bills very good secondary. On the other side, Bills quarterbackKyle Orton has been a big improvement over EJ Manuel as Buffalo has now wonthree of four with Orton at the helm and as he gains more comfort in thesystem, his numbers should continue to improve. The Bills qualify in 80-33-3and 48-26 situations and benefit from a negative 9-41-3 situation that playsagainst the Chiefs. My model predicts a Bills victory by 3.3 points so withsituations and line value lining up, I like the Bills PK for 2-stars down to-2.

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nfac vr
256) BUFFALO PK (nfac $500)
#262) NY JETS +4 (nfac $400)
#266) OAKLAND +13 (nfac $400)
#267) ST LOUIS +7.5 (-120) (nfac $400)

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Northcoast



3.5* Dallas -7 Jacksonville 1 pm
3* Pittsburgh -3.5 / -4 NY Jets 1 pm
3* Green Bay -7 / -7.5 Chicago 8:30 pm
Top Opinions:
Denver -10 Oakland - NC Sports Comp Pro Play
UNDER 53 Green Bay/Chicago - NBC Marquee
OVER 44.5 Seattle/NY Giants - Totals Marquee
New Orleans -5.5 San Francisco
Baltimore -10 Tennessee - Chalk
Reg Opinions:
Arizona -6.5 St Louis - 4:00 Pro Play

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Maddux

NBA

10* detroit under 195

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Betting As A Business

Under 42 – Kansas City / Buffalo 1:00 ET 1.50 Units
(Play ON UNDER)

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Kevin O'Neill

Jax
Buffalo

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Youngstown Connection
Date: Sunday November 9, 2014

$25.00 NFL Play #1

#254 Detroit -2.5 1PM Eastern

Line from Intertops
Line as of 110AM Eastern 11/9/14