11-9-14

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GILZTIPS

Denver -11 2 units

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Steve Fezzik

2* Green Bay Packers

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Maddux Sports

10* Jets +4.5
10* Atlanta -2.5
10* Jets Over the total

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From This Week's BEST BETS
STATFOX SCOTT

ST. LOUIS (267) AT ARIZONA (268)
Latest Line: Cards -7; Total: 43

Underdogs of between 3.5 and 10 points are 21-4 ATS since the start of the 2012 season after scoring 14 points or fewer in back-to-back games. As impressive as Arizona has been this season, the Cardinals have won only one of their four home games by double-digits, and that was a 10-point win over the Redskins in which an Arizona interception return for a touchdown with 18 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter provided the final margin in a 30-20 victory. Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer is just 10-21 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2010 season, which includes an 0-5 ATS mark when his team is favored by between 5.5 and 8.5 points. Look for the final margin of this one to be no more than three or four points.
PLAY ON: Rams +7

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Hondo

Hondo: Cann the man — for now

Hondo rallied to post a respectable 7-6 mark (2-1 in Best Bets) in Week 9, but was unable to gain any ground on the runaway freight train, aka Mark Cannizzaro, at the top of the Bettor’s Guide standings. At this point, it looks as if the only way Cannizzaro can be slowed down is if he has a chance encounter with J.R. Smith and is given the Glen Rice Jr. treatment.

Steelers over Jets: Ben Roethlisberger, who has 12 TD passes in his last two games and has the Steelers scoring at a 40-ppg clip over their last three, has to be drooling at the prospect of facing Gang Green’s third-rate secondary. If Pittsburgh doesn’t obliterate this mysteriously skimpy number, there ought to be a full-scale federal probe.

There’s no truth to the rumor that embattled GM John Idzik, in attempt to combat the proprietors of FireJohnIdzik.com, will start up his own website: GetALifeYouLosers.com.

It could be telling that Rex Ryan’s response to the plane-drawn “Fire John Idzik!” banner was to fly a banner that read, “Go Jets,” instead of “Keep John Idzik!”

BarkingMut of SoBe suggests if Jets fans really want to do something constructive, they should have V. Stiviano cozy up to Woody Johnson, in the hope she will extract some damning dirt that will force him to sell the team to someone who has a remote idea of what he’s doing.

Giants over Seahawks: Hondo hears Tom Coughlin, who implored his Giants to “play above the X’s and O’s” before they were crushed by the Colts, will “coach above his socks” this week by keeping the challenge flag in his pants pocket for easier and more timely access.

According to an emailer , the NFL has decided that all Giants and Jets games will be “flexed” to Comedy Central for the rest of the season.

Cowboys over Jaguars: The last of Roger Goodell’s London Obsession Weeks. It’s just a shame the commish was distracted by having to testify at Ray Rice’s appeal about what he knew and when he knew it, what he saw and when he saw it. If Goodell had to raise one hand and put the other on a Bible, chances are Rice will win the appeal.

Lions over Dolphins: It was a tough week for Obama, whose policies were repudiated on Election Day, who was derided as “a sh—ty golfer” by Michael Jordan and who finished second to Putin on Forbes’ list of the “World’s Most Powerful People.” But it wasn’t all bad news — nobody mentioned his questionable basketball skills (2-for-22 shooting with kids at the Easter Egg Roll) or the lollipop pitches he has become known for at MLB games.

Not only that but the people of Washington D.C. voted to legalized marijuana. Rumor has it the President will celebrate by holding a reunion at the White House for his old Hawaiian pot-puffing pals, aka “The Choom Gang.” Roll ’em if you got ’em!

Chiefs over Bills: Governor Cuomo was reelected by a wide margin but was unable to prevent a Republican takeover of the State Senate. Sadly for New York Dems, the governor’s coattails apparently end just end below his neck.

Saints over 49ers: Celebs turned out in force at the Church of St. Ignatius Loyola in Manhattan on Monday for the funeral of famed fashion designer Oscar de la Renta. Several had to be turned away but that was only because they thought it was a gathering for famed women’s lingerie wearer Oscar de la Hoya.

Ravens over Titans: Congratulations to new Cubs manager Joe Maddon, who as a result of displacing former skipper Rick Renteria is the offseason NL leader in steals.

Buccaneers over Falcons: Atlanta is coming off a bye week, which is bad news for Falcon backers. The damage Falcons’ coach Mike Smith can cause when he has two weeks to prepare is almost limitless.

Broncos over Raiders: NBC’s Brian Williams insists weatherman Mike Seidel wasn’t urinating on air when he was shown with his back to the camera while covering a snowstorm last weekend in North Carolina. That’s too bad. It would have enabled NBC to boast of having the best 1-2 punch in weather coverage with Seidel and Al “The Pantload” Roker,

Cardinals over Rams: Marine Sgt. Andrew Tahmooressi is grateful for finally being set free from a jail in Mexico after 214 days. He’d like to thank Obama for all his help … but can’t, because the President did nothing to assist in his release.

Packers over Bears: Props to Rubik’s Cube, little green army men and soap bubbles for being named to the National Toy Hall of Fame. They beat out Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, the Hess Truck and, among others, pots and pans. If pots and pans can be nominated, shouldn’t consideration also be given to fingers and noses, which over the years have brought endless joy to children?

Also, what about The Fart? Surely that deserves some Toy Hall love for basically serving as the soundtrack for so many adolescents’ lives.

Panthers over Eagles: The Sanchise showed a lot of Sanchismo in beating the Texans in Week 9. However, according to Hondo’s analytics, that just makes Mark due to revert to form, not necessarily with a butt-fumble-six, but possibly with a Pick-Sixchise or two.

Best bets: Steelers, Lions, Packers.

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Colin Cowherd's Blazing Five (26-18 on the year for 59.1%)

Tampa Bay +2- (TB 24-23)
Kansas City -2 (KC 26-20) Favorite bet of the week
Detroit -2 (DET 27-21)
Green Bay -7 (GB 33-23)
NY Giants +9 (SEA 26-21)

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Art Aronson 10* Fins/Lions over

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NFL
DOUBLE PLAYS: New Orleans -5 San Francisco
Baltimore -9 1/2 Tennessee
Philly -6 1/2 Carolina

SINGLE PLAYS

Norm Hitzges
Jets +4 Pittsburgh

Denver -11 Oakland
Buffalo +2 KC

---In the Dallas game I'd "lean" toward Jacksonville but didn't feel strongly enough about it to make it an actual play

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Wunderdog Sports

Complimentary NFL Pick for November 9th, 2014

Game: Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Time: Sunday 11/09 8:30 PM Eastern
Pick: Green Bay -7 (-110) at 5dimes

The Green Bay Packers have something that most teams wished they had - an elite quarterback. Aaron Rodgers makes all the difference with this team, as we saw what happened when they went without him a season ago. He has thrown just three INTs on the season, two of which were last week. But, both were off a player and intercepted by another and not bad passes. He simply does not turn the ball over as he has the lowest INT rate of any QB in NFL history, and we all know what turnovers mean to covering and winning. The same can't be said of Jay Cutler and the Bears, who have had multiple turnovers in four of their last five games, and thus have gone 1-4 in the stretch. Cutler owns a 1-9 record vs. Green Bay, throwing 13 TD passes to 19 INTs. That doesn't bode well if your a Bears' fan, and neither does the 32 points per game the Bears have allowed in their last five. The Bears are last in the league in defensive yards per attempt, allowing 8.71. Overall on the season, the Bears have allowed 27.7 points per game and it's getting worse as the season progresses. Rodgers has had a history of exploiting much better Bears' secondaries than this as he has 18 TDs to four INTs in the last seven meetings. Over the past two and a half seasons, Chicago is just 3-11 ATS vs. the best offensive teams (teams like GB that average 24+ points per game). They are also 2-11 ATS over that span vs. division opponents who know how to stop Cutler. At home this season, Green Bay is winning by 20 points per game. Green Bay rolls.

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Sportswagers

NEW ORLEANS -5½ -110 over San Francisco
The 49ers offensive line is a complete mess. The projected line of LT Joe Staley, LG Mike Iupati, C Daniel Kilgore, RG Alex Boone and RT Anthony Davis got to play together for all of one quarter this season. Now a rookie, Marcus Martin, is at center after Kilgore's season-ending broken left ankle suffered in Denver two games back. This is becoming a bigger problem every week. Last week, Colin Kaepernick was sacked eight times by the Rams last week. San Fran has given up 14 sacks over the past two games. The 49ers 4-4 record is one of the most misleading marks in the NFL. San Fran could easily be 1-7 after they had no business defeating the Eagles and they also got extremely lucky in its win in St. Louis after an 80-yard pass to end the first half changed everything in that game with the 49ers down 14-3. Their other win was over K.C. at home by 5 points. Kaepernick is a pea brain. He makes so many bad decisions and it’s catching up to him. Now he’s been hit hard and knocked down repeatedly for two weeks running. Playing in this hostile environment, where it’s difficult for the opposition to run an offense, Kaepernick’s pea brain figures to be on full display here.

The Saints are also 4-4, which has them undervalued. Pay no attention to that record, as it’s a product of bad luck. In fact, the Saints' offense was playing better than people realized when they started 2-4. They rank first in the NFL in yards per play and offensive efficiency. Their biggest problem has been turnovers, as Drew Brees has thrown eight interceptions, and they've lost a whopping seven fumbles. Other than that, Brees has been sharp. He leads the NFL in completion percentage and he has finally started to hit on deep balls over the past three weeks. More importantly, the Saints are as balanced as they've ever been in the Brees-Sean Payton era, with the run game turning into a real strength. Mark Ingram ran for 172 yards two weeks ago against Green Bay and another 100 last week at Carolina. The Saints defense has improved also, which gives the Saints' offense even more opportunities. The Saints have won 20 straight home games with Sean Payton on the sideline. They have had three extra days to prepare and now they’ll play a sinking ship. Drew Brees at home against Colin Kaepernick is a mismatch of mammoth proportions and now we get to spot less than an unconverted TD? Man, are the 49ers overvalued here so now is the time to take advantage.

NOTE: No way is this line coming down but it could very well move up so bet ASAP if you’re on board with the Saints.

Our Pick
NEW ORLEANS -5½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)


BALTIMORE -9½ -110 over Tennessee
Pssst. I’ve got a hot fantasy tip for you but keep it to yourself. We need to keep this on the down-low. Here it is: start any team defense you can against the Titans and you didn’t hear it from me. With all due respect to the Raiders, Jags and Jets, Tennessee is about the least relevant team in the league. At least those other three are interesting but there is nothing interesting about the Titans. Losers of six of their last seven games, the Titans hand the ball to rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger, who makes the first road start of his career. In his first game, Zach Mettenberger passed for 299 yards and two scores versus the Texans while losing a fumble and throwing one interception. Those are great numbers for a debut game but it came at home and most of it happened after the Titans were far behind (garbage time). The Titans have nothing. Their offense can’t move five yards and their defense is worse.

It’s now November and the Ravens current steak of nine victories in a row at home in November is not about to end. The Ravens are also in a foul mood after getting creamed by Pittsburgh in prime time last week. Joe Flacco's efficiency passing rating of 90.7 is the second-best of his career and he’s also seen a decrease in the number of sacks (13 in nine games). Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme has made the Ravens the 10th-ranked rushing attack in the league. That's their highest ranking since 2011. The knock on Kubiak in Houston was that he was too predictable but this is the most balanced offense under Coach John Harbaugh. Even though the Ravens have struggled recently on offense, no one can argue with the results. The Ravens went from being the 29th-best offense last season to the ninth-best unit this year. The Ravens have played three teams with losing records (the Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons) and they've beaten them by a combined score of 115-34. The dreadful Titans are their next victim.

NOTE: This line is not coming down but it could very well move up so bet ASAP if you’re on board with the Ravens.

Our Pick
BALTIMORE -9½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)


DETROIT -2½ -109 over Miami
If we’re sticking with our buy-low/sell-high theory then the Lions have to be the play because Miami’s stock is soaring after they pounded San Diego last week by a score of 37-0. The Fish have now won three in a row and four of its past five. They have also averaged 30 points a game over their past five. Miami looked as sharp as a whip last week and that makes them tough to bet against. However, Miami has also run into some teams at precisely the right time in that they ran into them when they were going bad. Miami’s four wins occurred Oakland, Jacksonville, the reeling Bears and the suddenly reeling Chargers. The Dolphins win over Jacksonville was unimpressive and prior to their hot streak, Miami was rocked by Buffalo by 19 points and by Kansas City by 19 points. Furthermore, the Dolphins now travel to an NFC city to play indoors on artificial turf and that just does not mix with Miami. Finally, the Dolphins have a huge game on deck next week against Buffalo and that game just happens to be in prime time on Thursday night. With their stock soaring, this is a hugely vulnerable spot for the Dolphins.

Detroit is coming off that last second win over Atlanta early on a Sunday morning two weeks ago. They’ve had two weeks to prepare and they’ve been rock solid at home with a 21-point win over the Giants, a 12-point win over Green Bay and a 1-point victory over the Saints. When the Lions lost at home to Buffalo by three, they were without several key players but they responded the following week with a 14-point win in Minnesota. The Lions are allowing 15.8 points a game and they’re the only team in the NFL giving up fewer than 17 points a game. Calvin Johnson is expected to return from his ankle injury and when you talk about difference makers, this guy is near the top. Reports are that Megatron looked crisp in practice and seems to be as close to 100 percent this far into a season as he has been in a long time. Miami is right in the middle of the NFL at allowing sacks (on 5.9 percent of the Dolphins’ drop-backs) so it could be a tough day for Ryan Tannehill. The Lions have faced quarterbacks with at least some mobility this season in a still-recovering Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater and Geno Smith and have done a good job keeping them pretty hemmed in the pocket. Miami still has plenty to prove before they can be trusted as a legit team that plays consistently good football from week to week. Detroit has been playing consistently well at home for years and while these two both have a history of second half collapses, Miami is likely the first to crumble in this horrible scheduling spot.
NOTE: We doubt this line hits -3 and we doubt it moves much at all so the recommendation would be to play it now.

Our Pick
DETROIT -2½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)


TAMPA BAY +129 over Atlanta
56-14. That was the score in the Falcons favor when these two met in Atlanta on a Thursday night back in Week 3. 56-0. That was the score after three quarters. One has to figure a response is in order by the Buccaneers but this is more about fading the Dirty Birds as road chalk. Since the start of 2013, Atlanta's record on the road is 1-11, including 0-4 this season. Losing five in a row is wearing on the Falcons and losing by a single point to the Lions made it even worse since they had to stew about it over the bye. The Falcons virtually have no defense and no running game. The only consistency in the Falcons backfield is that they are using four different running backs every week and ensuring that not one of them is productive. The Falcons have lost every road game by 10 or more, which includes a 10-point loss to the Giants and a 13-point loss in Minnesota. Furthermore, Mike Smith is the worst coach in the NFL that seems to be surviving on the fumes of who knows what. And from the looks of him, those fumes probably smell like tanning bed funk and cedar chips. This is a bad football team that has demonstrated repeatedly that they have no business laying weight on the road.

Tampa Bay's defense ranks No. 31 overall, which is shocking and disappointing when you're talking about a team coached by Lovie Smith. This week is the best shot for a Bucs victory on the remaining schedule. It it doesn't happen here, it may very well not happen this year. This is the only remaining home game against a team with a losing record and this is the game the Bucs want more than any other. At least the Bucs are competing these days. They went into New Orleans and were a fraction away from defeating the Saints, ultimately losing it in OT. The week prior, they went into Pittsburgh and won as an 8-point pooch. The past two weeks, the Bucs have lost by a combined 11 points and one of those was a 6-point OT loss against Minnesota. The other was a five-point loss against Cleveland last week in Cleveland. The Bucs also lost their first two games by a combined 8 points. Tampa has been in a strong position to win six games this year but has just one win. The Bucs are a lot closer to respectability than the Falcons and they’ve also been more competitive against better teams. The Falcons are favored here because of that 56-14 loss but games like that happen from time to time and we put zero weight on it. This has nothing to do with revenge. Instead it’s about fading a team that can’t be favored on the road against anyone and certainly not against this competitive bunch.

NOTE: We’re going to wait until Sunday because this line has a great chance of going to +3 and if that happens, we’ll take the points. If it remains 2½ or drops, we’ll play the Bucs on the money line. If you like Atlanta, play them now because it’s likely to go to three but we wouldn’t play Atlanta on the road laying points with counterfeit money.

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BEN BURNS

MAIN EVENT - chi/gbay under

BREAKFAST CLUB - buffalo

BLUE CHIP TOTAL - tenn/balt under

BEST BET - jets

PERSONAL FAVORITE - detroit

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Vegas Sports Informer

8* NEW ORLEANS -5

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Indian Cowboy


6-Unit Baltimore -9.5

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Allen Eastman

7* New Orleans -5
6* Pitt -4.5
4* KC -1.5
4* Mia +3
3* Atlanta -2
3* Philly -6