11-9-14

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Mike Davis

6* Detroit Lions -3

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JIMMY BOYD:

5* NFL NON-CONFERENCE Game Of The Year: LIONS -2.5

4* AFC Game Of The Month: JETS +6

3* BUCS/FALCONS UNDER 46.5

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Doc Sports


5 Unit Play. #260/#600 Take Over 43.5 in Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 1 pmCBS)

Top NFL Play of the Weekend

The Ravens look to get back on track coming off an embarrassing performance in their loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday night. We expect them to have no trouble moving the football against Tennessee this week. Baltimore has gone over the posted total in 5 of their last 7 games. When the Titans play teams with a winning record, games tend to be high scoring, as the Titans have gone over the posted total in 9 of their last 12 games in this scenario. We will not worry if Baltimore can cover this inflated number and instead just collect with the over.


4 Unit Play. #262/#610 Take New York Jets +5.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 1 pm CBS)

Pittsburgh is coming off three straight home victories, but I expect them to find things much different on the road this week. The Jets are a complete mess and have hit rock bottom, but I expect things to start to take a turn in the right direction under Michael Vick. Pittsburgh is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. The Jets have some weapons on offense that can move the football against this suspect Pittsburgh defense. Big Ben has a major edge over the Jets defense, but expect Coach Rex Ryan to develop a scheme to be able to slow him down somewhat. This game goes down to the wire and feel it will be a field goal or less game giving us a collection with whoever comes out on top. Pittsburgh is just 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games following a victory of 14 or more points in their previous game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

Triple-dime bet 256 BUF 1.5 (-110)

Analysis: Buffalo comes in off a bye, which follows a road dismantling of the Jets. The Bills are still very much under the radar here. Surprisingly enough, these teams have met each of the last four years, and last year the Chiefs won in Buffalo, which IMO was payback for the year prior when they whacked KC. Either way, the Bills have won four of the last five ATS against the Chiefs, whose stock has probably never been higher. Perhaps a bit too high. After the drubbing of New England, they went out and beat what we now know to be a pretender at San Diego. Then they beat the Rams, and this past week struggled against the Jets.
Although the outcome was never in doubt, they let Vick complete 21-28 pass attempts, gain more total yards, and were it not for first downs via penalty, the Jet would have had more of those, too. Add the "luck" factor of that BS touchdown Fasano caught, too. This is a Bills team that beat the Dolphins, holding them to 10 points, and that was with EJ Manuel. They won in Detroit, holding the Lions to 14 points. The Bills are fourth in the NFL in turnover margin, and we know how important that is. Surprisingly again, the Chiefs are 22nd in the league in turnover margin, and worse on the road. Statistically, Buffalo has a better rushing defense, and once they stop the run, the Chiefs have the 3rd least passing yards in the NFL. Off a bye, at home, with a chance to actually be a wild-card contending team, and in a game that looks like it could well be cold, windy, raining, or all of the above, we like the Bills a TON here. Justin Houston could well be neutralized by the weather, and Leodis McKelvin will add to his four picks. I could go on citing statistics and situations, but it'd be another paragraph with more of the same.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Triple-dime bet 254 DET -2.5 (-125)


Analysis: The Lions have the league's top defense, were idle last week and their offense will get heavily fortified with the expected return of Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and some of their banged-up tight ends. Matthew Stafford is a much better quarterback when he has Johnson, who has missed the past three games and is anxious to have his usual big impact.
A big key, though, with backing the Lions besides their much improved defense is their new coaching staff headed by Jim Caldwell. The Lions are actually well coached for the first time in years. Caldwell has established discipline and a reduction on penalties and stupid decisions. The Dolphins have a solid defense, too, but their offense can't match the Lions at the skill positions. Lamar Miller is Miami's best running back and he has a shoulder injury. Miller is just an average runner, but he's much better than what the Dolphins have behind him.
The Lions rank first in the NFL in fewest yards per game and in scoring defense holding opponents to less than 16 points a game. This is the Dolphins' only dome game and stiffest road challenge. Miami's other road games have been at Buffalo, Oakland in London, at Chicago and Jacksonville. The Bills are 1-3 ATS at home with their lone cover coming in a 29-10 win against the Dolphins. The Raiders have yet to win a game, while the Bears and Jaguars are a combined 1-6 at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cousin Sal
Tampa Bay +3
Denver -12 lock of the week

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BeatYourBookie
SUNDAY


10* Play Miami +2.5 over Detroit (Top NFL Play)


Detroit is 50-75 ATS when playing as a favorite
Detroit is 34-56 ATS when playing in the month of November




10* Play St. Louis +7 over Arizona (Top NFL Play)


St. Louis is 5-1 ATS in road games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 45 points
St. Louis is 5-2 ATS when playing in the month of November




10* Play Tampa Bay +1.5 over Atlanta (Top NFL Play)


Atlanta is 3-7 ATS coming off two or more UNDER the totals
Atlanta is 2-9 ATS in road games this season

Winning Angle Football
Play Miami +2.5 over Detroit (NFL)
1:00 PM EST


Detroit has lost 75 of the last 125 games against the spread when playing as a favorite and they have lost 56 of the last 90 games against the spread when playing in the month of November. Detroit has lost 6 consecutive games against the spread after having won three of the last four games and they have lost 6 of the last 7 games vs. Miami.




Play San Francisco +4.5 over New Orleans (NFL)
1:00 PM EST


San Francisco has covered the spread in 14 of the last 19 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games after failing to cover the spread in two of the last three games. San Francisco has covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 road games when the total posted is greater than 45.5 points and they have covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their last game.




Play Buffalo +2 over Kansas City (NFL)
Play Chicago +7 over Green Bay (NFL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE LINEMAKERS
The Dolphins visit the Lions in a key inter-conference matchup this Sunday, and we have a consensus pick among two of our partners and our crew in Las Vegas.
Massey-Peabody, who we refer to as The Quants for their quantitative approach to picking winners, list Miami (+3) as one of their two Big Plays for Sunday. Massey-Peabody numbers make the Dolphins 1-point road favorites in this game.
The boys in Vegas are on board with Miami. Their take:
"The Dolphins are not only winning, they're winning big. All five of their victories, in fact, have been by double digits, and their only blemish over their last five games was an unfortunate home loss to Green Bay. The Lions, meanwhile, were lucky in London against Atlanta and are a middling 4-4 ATS, having failed to cover the spread in three of their last four. Our power ratings have Miami 1 point better on a neutral field."
Finally, AccuScore likes Miami on the money-line. Writes Rohit Ghosh, “Las Vegas odds have Miami listed as a +125 underdog, implying a 44 percent chance of winning. AccuScore -- while it doesn’t pick the Dolphins as the winner -- has that probability up to 49 percent, which translates into odds of +104, making the +125 appealing.”
The average score after AccuScore’s 10,000-plus simulations is Detroit 24, Miami 23.5.
Here are all of Massey-Peabody’s best bets for this weekend's football action:

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fat Jack

THERE ARE 3 SELECTIONS ON SUNDAY
#256 buffalo OVER 42 (SENT TUESDAY)
#263 ATLANTA -1 (SENT TUESDAY)
#268 arizona OVER 43

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BIG AL's 5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

NY JETS

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DAVID GLISAN SPORTS



(253) Miami +2'
(255) Kansas City PK
(259/260) Tennessee/Baltimore UNDER 44
(261) Pittsburgh -3'
(265) Denver -10'
(265/266) Denver/Oakland OVER 50
(268) Arizona -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

Added

20* Lions -2.5

[golden contender]

GC: NFL System play

Sunday #1 Ranked NFL Card has the NFC South Total of the Year with 7 Totals systems, an Early 5* Blowout system and a 5* Shocker with a 16-0 system and 16-0 angle. In Afternoon Action a Triple system Dominator and the Sunday night Totals Play along with an NBA Round out a Powerful weekend card. Free NFL System Play below.





On Sunday the Free NFL System club play is on Buffalo. Game 256 at 1:00 eastern. The Bills fit a monster system that has cashed 37 of 41 times and plays on winning home dogs of less than 7 points that are off a road dog win and are taking on an opponent off a home game. The Bills fit several variations of the home dog off a road dog win systems, the aforementioned on the higher end side. The Bills are 6-1 ats last 7 home in this series and 10-1 ats in their fifth home game of playing off a division game. KC has Seattle up next and road favorites with the a super bowl team up next are 4-14 ats long term. The Chiefs are 1-7 ats in non divisional games vs a team off a win of 10 or more. This game would have been unit rated but with wide out Sammy Watkins a game time decision we will make this the free play today. On Sunday the NFC South Total Of the Year takes center stage along with a Pair of 5 * Blowouts and a 5* Shocker with a 16-0 system and 16-0 angle. There is also a Solid Sunday night NFL Totals Play and NBA. NFL Is ranked #1 at several high end leader boards. Jump on Now and end the week big with the Most powerful Data available. For the free play we ride With the Bills, having the extra prep time we will look their way today. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker

triple play NYG / SEA Over 43.5

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King Creole

triple play ATL / TAM Over 46.0