11-13-14

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NCAAF

Thursday's games

Cincinnati won its last three games, scoring 37.7 ppg and running ball for 240+ yards; over last 11 years, Bearcats are 9-4 as home underdog. East Carolina is 2-2 on road, losing last game as 10-point favorite at Temple; they lost five fumbles in game, losing despite outgaining Owls 432-135; Pirates are 0-4 vs spread in last four games, 1-6 in last seven games as road favorites. ECU is averaging 22.3 ppg on road, 47.3 at home. AAC home underdogs are 4-6 against the spread this season.

Southern Mississippi lost its last three games, allowing 43 ppg; they got off to 14-0 lead over unbeaten Marshall last week but lost 63-17. Eagles are 3-2 as road underdogs this year, after being 3-10 last two years. San Antonio lost seven of last eight games, with lone win 16-13; they're 0-4 vs spread when favored this year, and lost last three games, by 7-34-10 points, scoring total of seven points last two games while outgained by 444 yards. C-USA home favorites are 9-15 vs spread.

USC won its last ten games with Cal, covering eight of last nine; Trojans won last five series games by average score of 39-13. Golden Bears lost last six visits to USC, last two by 27-9/48-14 scores. USC covered three of four as home favorite this year, winning in Coliseum by 39-25-28, but losing to ASU at home. Cal is 4-0 as road underdog this year, going 3-1 SU, with only loss 49-45 at Arizona when they blew 18-point lead late in game. Pac-12 home favorites are 9-12 vs spread.

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StatFox Super Situations

CFB | RICE at MARSHALL
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (MARSHALL) off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, in November games
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

CFB | E CAROLINA at CINCINNATI
Play On - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (E CAROLINA) good passing team - with a completion pct of 58% or better
195-127 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.6% | 0.0 units )
32-19 this year. ( 62.7% | 0.0 units )

CFB | TEXAS at OKLAHOMA ST
Play Against - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (TEXAS) off an upset win as a home underdog
67-31 over the last 10 seasons. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )

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NFL

Week 11

Bills (5-4) @ Dolphins (5-4)-- Bills (-1) won first meeting 29-10 in Week 2, running a kick back for TD and two takeaways leading to 22-yard edge in field poistion. Season series has been split three of last five years; Bills lost four of last six visits here, with all four losses by 9+ points. In last four games, Bills have been -3/-4/+6/-2 in turnover ratio; they've won three of four road games (dog in all four) with only loss at Houston, 23-17. Miami won four of last six games, with all four wins by 13+ points; they're 2-2 SU at home, 1-1 as HFs. Dolphins won field position in last seven games, are 5-1 when they get 2+ takeaways, 0-3 otherwise. Bills have 13 giveaways (-3) in last three games. Under is 7-2 in last nine Buffalo games, 4-0 in Miami's last four. Losing LT Albert is very bad news for Miami offense.

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King Creole | NFL Side
double-dime bet 2** Play on: MIAMI DOLPHINS minus the points

Analysis: 310 MIA -5.5 (-110) Hilton vs 309 BUF
Just for the record, we also like the UNDER in this game. But with NFL Primetime games going OVER at such a high percentage this season, we’ll pass on the Total… and instead focus on the SIDE PLAY. And in that regard, we don’t mind laying less than a TD on a team playing at HOME… with the BETTER offense… the BETTER defense… and the EXTRA motivation of Revenge. That would be our hometown Miami Dolphins.
With Bill Lazor calling the shots, the Dolphins offense has improved dramatically in 2014. They were the league’s #27 offense last year. This year, they’re up to #14 in the league…. with a 50 YPG improvement. Team scoring is up almost a FULL TD per game (from 19 ppg to 25 ppg). With Lazor’s help, Miami has catapulted all the way to NUMBER ONE (#1) in the league in Red Zone offense. They’ve made it to the Red Zone 43 times already this season. That’s more troops to the red zone than the Broncos… or Saints… or Packers… or Eagles… or Colts! That’s 5 Red Zone ‘trips-per-game’… compared to only 2.6 trips last year. Meanwhile, the Bills have REGRESSED on offense. They were #19 last season… and have fallen to #23 in 2014.
Better defense? You better believe it. Miami is ranked #4 in the entire league in yards allowed per game… at only 309.8. That is also a dramatic improvement from last year when they allowed 360.7 ypg (which was #20 in the league). In their home games this year, they have allowed only 301 on defense. And that was against some pretty damn good offenses to boot (like the Patriots, Packers, Chiefs, and Chargers). The Dolphins have allowed only 18.0 first downs per game on defense too, and that is indeed NUMBER ONE in the league.

Buffalo has defeated Miami in each of the last three meetings in this series (2-0 last year / 1-0 this year). So if any team has the added motivation of REVENGE, it’s the host on Thursday night. When I went into our Football database and ran a query based on the ‘Big R’, here what I came up with:
21-3 ATS last 5 years: All DIVISION home favorites of > 3 points off a SU loss (MIAMI) and playing with REVENGE. In the last three seasons, these ‘extra motivated’ teams have gone a PERFECT 13-0 ATS. That query alone makes this play 2** worthy.
When we shorten our query to this division (AFC East) specifically, we get the following: 9-0-1 ATS since 1998: All AFC EAST Division home favorites of 3 > points with REVENGE off a SU loss (MIAMI) vs any fellow division opponent also of a SU loss (Buffalo).
Last week, there Dolphins lost (LATE) as a road dog versus Detroit. And Buffalo lost as a home favorite versus Kansas City... 12-2 ATS last 3 years: All NFL home favorites of > 2 points off a SU road DOG loss (DOLPHINS) versus any opponent off a SU home FAV loss (Buffalo). These teams have gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS in same-division play…

When I was searching for a possible Over / Under angle in this game, I came across this: It pertains to teams like Miami who have gone UNDER the Total in each of their last four games…. 9-1-1 ATS last 4 years: All NFL home favorites in the 2nd half of the season (Game Eight >) off a SU loss and 4 or more ‘UNDERS’ in their last four games. These team have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS as favorites of < 8 pts (DOLPHINS).
MIAMI is a PERFECT 5-0 ATS at home when playing with Division REVENGE on the last four seasons…
BUFFALO is 1-6 ATS in the last six seasons as underdogs when playing ‘into’ Division Revenge.
The FAVORITE in this Miami / Buffalo SERIES has gone 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Pick Made: Nov 12 2014 1:10PM PST

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TONY CHAU-SPORTS BETTING CHAMP

Here are today's NBA system bet(s):

Brooklyn {A} bet

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Sean Michaels

THURSDAY

100 DIME play on Buffalo at Miami. The Bills are +6 as of 3:15 A.M. my time here in Vegas. If you happen to get Buffalo at +6 1/2 instead, I would recommend buying up the half-point on the Bills to make them +7 in such a situation.

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EZWINNERS

2 STAR SELECTION = (309) Buffalo Bills +6

(Risking $360 to win $300)
The Buffalo Bills have owned Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The Bills have won three straight meetings between these two teams by a combined score of 71-31. Tannehill is just 1-4 against the Bills in five career starts and has not thrown for more than 241 yards in any of those games and only once has he had a quarterback rating higher than 74.0. The Dolphins are also a bit banged up entering this game as Tannehill is nursing ankle and shoulder injuries and the Dolphins will be without injured offensive left tackle Brandon Albert, who protects Tannehill’s blind side. Other offensive players who will play but are banged up are guard Mike Pouncey who is bothered by a hip injury, running back Lamar Miller with a shoulder injury and tight end Charles Clay with a knee injury On the defensive side of the ball, starting cornerback Cortland Finnegan is out with an ankle injury and starting middle linebacker Koa Misi will play but is less than 100% with an ankle injury of his own. That’s not a good thing when facing a Bill’s defense that lead the AFC in sacks with 34. Buffalo is also getting a bit healthier as running back Fred Jackson might see a larger role this week and wide receiver Sammy Watkins who was quiet on Sunday against Kansas City has had a few more days for his groin to heal. Take the points.

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Paul Leiner


100* Dolphins -5.5


100* USC -14.5


100* Grizzlies -6.5

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Bill o’brien

todays nba premium plays

chicago/toronto – under the total
sacramento/memphis – under the total

todays nfl premium plays
miami spread

todays ncaaf premium plays
usc spread

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DETROIT GODFATHER

5units

(NFL) Miami / Buffalo – Over 42 points (-108)

4 units

(NBA) Chicago Bulls +2.5 (-105)
(NCAAF) California +15 (-110)

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BEHIND THE BETS

CFB Thursday = 3* Cincinnati +3

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MARC LAWRENCE

100% ATS Perfect Super System College Football Play
California+pts

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ben burns

NBA PERSONAL FAVORITE! - memphis

NHL PUCK-LINE BLUE MARLIN - colorado +1.5

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Here are today's NBA system bet(s): 11/13/2014



Brooklyn {B} bet



Note that all bets labeled with {A} are bets under the original NBA system, and are not Exterminator system plays. Only bet on these game if you are able to buy 3 points at -170 odds!


All bets labeled with either {B} or {C} are Exterminator system plays. Bet a flat percentage of your bankroll as instructed in the system manual.



Since you're a member of my Exterminator system, make sure to follow the guidelines below:
- All {A} bets are not part of the Exterminator system. Unless, however, if you have the ability to buy 3 points at -170 odds, then it is strongly advisable to place a small wager on all the {A} bets with buying 3 points, up to 5% of your bankroll. This is an optional betting strategy, which has proven to be a profitable one based on my research. Buying 3 points on {A} bets has won over 65% of the time over the years, so you should bet on {A} bets if you can buy 3 points at -170 odds.
-All {B} and {C} bets are qualified under both the original NBA system as well as the Exterminator system. For the Exterminator system, bet a flat percentage of your bankroll on both {B} and {C} bets. You do not need to buy any points on these bets under the Exterminator system.
- Remember to bet on the point spread (handicap line)
- If your team is a favorite, bet on the money line. If the team is a big favorite resulting in odds that are too unfavorable for you to be comfortable with, then you can either optionally skip the series, or bet on the point spread plus 3 points as normal (only applicable under the original NBA system), but do not continue betting on the series if your team wins the game but the bet does not cover.
Always consider the injury and the best/worst road team filters. Check the injuries to ensure your team's best player isn't out. I will always make my best effort to notify you of game-changing injuries whenever I am aware of them to ensure that you don't make wagers on team that don't pass the injury filter. However, I cannot make guarantees that I will always be able to be on top of every single injury, every game, every day, at all times. Some teams may hold off on releasing relevant injury information until much later in the day. A bet will be unofficial if it does not pass the filters of the system. Ultimately as a bettor, I always strongly encourage that if there's any uncertainty about the status of your team's best player for a game that you always check on final injury updates.
Good luck,
Tony Chau, author of the best-selling Exterminator Betting System

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Arthur Ralph

Blue Ribbon California + 15