11-13-14

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Winning Angle

THURSDAY

NBA BASKETBALL

Play Dallas -13.5 over Philadelphia (NBA TOP PLAY)

Philadelphia has lost 46 of the last 76 games against the spread when the total posted is greater than 200 points and they have lost 21 of the last 30 non-conference games against the spread.Philadelphia has lost 33 of the last 53 games against the spread after allowing 105 points or more in their last game and they are only averaging 86 points a game on the road this season.


Play Golden State -9 over Brooklyn (NBA BONUS PLAY)
Play Memphis -6.5 over Sacramento (NBA BONUS PLAY)



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NHL HOCKEY

Play Winnipeg +120 over Carolina (NHL TOP PLAY)
Play Boston +120 over Montreal (NHL TOP PLAY)

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Winning Angle Football



THURSDAY

Play Miami -5 over Buffalo (NFL)
8:30 PM EST

Buffalo has lost 12 of the last 18 games against the spread when playing as a road underdog and they have lost 7 of the last 8 games against the spread after having won two of the last three games.Buffalo has lost 13 of the last 17 games against the spread coming off a home game and they have lost 11 of the last 18 games against the spread when playing in the 2^nd half of the season.


Play East Carolina -3 over Cincinnati (NCAA)
7:00 PM EST

East Carolina has won 20 of the last 23 games when playing as a favorite and they have won 16 of the last 20 games vs. conference opponents.East Carolina has won 6 consecutive games coming off a road loss and they are averaging 35 points a game on offense this season.


Play Texas-San Antonio -8.5 over Southern Mississippi (NCAA)
8:00 PM EST

Southern Mississippi has lost 16 of the last 22 conference games against the spread and they have lost 18 of the last 28 games against the spread when playing as an underdog.Southern Mississippi has lost 17 of the last 24 games against the spread when playing after the 1^st month of the season and they are allowing an average of 36 points a game on defense this season.


Play USC -15 over California (NCAA)
9:00 PM EST

California has lost 17 of the last 25 games against the spread vs. conference opponents and they have lost 6 of the last 7 games against the spread after having lost two of the last three games.California has lost 8 of the last 10 games against the spread coming off a road game and they are allowing an average of 44 points on defense in road games this season.

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Scott Delaney

20 Dimes Chicago Bulls

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Pick Addict
BUFFALO BILLS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS

PICK: OVER 41 (-110)
RISK: 5 UNITS

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Brandon Lang

40 Dimes - Buffalo Bills +6 (Lang's line) visiting the the Miami Dolphins, 8:25 PM EST

Free play - California Golden Bears and the USC Trojans OVER the posted total

Brandon Lang is on a 5-0 run with his paid plays, up 340 dimes since Saturday.

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Charlie sports

500*
E car over
Cal over
Bills

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ATARI
NFL: 11-6: +13.69 units

NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

THURSDAY
Miami Dolphins -5 (-102)
Risking 2.04 units to win 2 units
8:25pm start

I've got the Dolphins to win by 6. Get your -5 now.
If you have to take the -6 closer to Kick-off then it's ok.

Remember that buying a half point in the NFL and NBA comes in handy on many occasions.

Take the Dolphins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

Unfortunately the Nets collapse last night cost our clients a winner, but we are going to back to one of their games tonight as they visit the Golden State Warriors. The Over is 8-2 in the Nets last 10 games and 4-1 in the Warriors last five home games. We get a rested Warriors team tonight at home that loves to run and score vs. a Brooklyn team still fighting a hangover from last night's disappointing loss. The side is a little too rich for our blood, but we do think you are going to see a high scoring affair tonight and the Over is a really solid play in this spot. The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - BRK/GS OVER 210

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Rockdeman Sports (NBA 11-4-1 Last 16)

Raptors

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Topshelfpicks

Carson K (NHL)

Avalanche +145

Hurricanes -120

Lightning -145

Predators +140

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Indian Cowboy

NHL
3* Winnipeg

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Vegas Butcher (NFL)

Buffalo Bills +4

A big divisional game between two 5-4 teams. Both Miami and Buffalo have top-4 defenses, both are exceptional at rushing the passer, and both can stop the run. Miami ranks 1st in passD while Buffalo isn’t far behind, ranking 3rd. One advantage that the Bills have is on special teams, where they rank 4th while Miami is 27th. On a short week, without much time to prepare, special teams could be an even bigger difference than normally. But of course another key difference in this game is each team’s offense. Let’s break it down.

Miami ranks 13th in OffEff (Offensive Efficiency) while Buffalo is 27th. It’s important to remember that Buffalo played their first 4 games with an ineffective EJ Manuel, and once Kyle Orton became the starter their offense became more efficient. Manuel ranks 32nd in QB-efficiency with a -21.3% DVOA (defense adjusted advanced efficiency metric), 59% completion %, and 1.7 TD/INT rate in his 4 starts. Orton ranks 22nd in QB-efficiency with a -2.6% DVOA (around league average), 66% completion %, and 3.3 TD/INT rate in his 5 starts. He’s actually on the same level as Tannehill who has a -1.3% DVOA on the season, ranking 20th in that metric. Tannehil has a 65% completion % and 2.1 TD/INT rate on the year. In addition, Orton’s 7.3 PY/A is superior to Tannehill’s 6.6 PY/A mark. Tannehill hurt his shoulder and his ankle against the Lions last week, and though he’ll play today, he might not be at 100%. The more serious issue for this Dolphins offense is the fact that Branden Albert, their stud left tackle, got hurt in week 10 and will miss the remainder of the season. Remember how poor this Dolphins O-line was last year, and how much it improved this season with the acquisition of Albert? Well, he’s out now and with a very short week, it’s hard to imagine that Miami was able to develop much continuity on their O-line after reshuffling players around. Facing an absolutely dominating defensive front-line of the Bills (#2 in ASR% @ 8.8%), Miami’s O-line is absolutely one of the most critical factors in tonight’s game. To make matters worse, Lamar Miller still seems to be below 100%, as he was only able to register 5 touches against the Lions. Miller is backed up by an undrafted rookie free agent Damien Wiliams and a useless plodder with fumbling issues in Daniel Thomas. I think it’s safe to say that Miami’s offense should perform worse today than their 13th season-long rank indicates. At the same time, I like the fact that Fred Jackson is out for the Bills. His absence will give Bryce Brown more opportunities and touches, and he looked absolutely explosive last week. Fumbling has always been an issue for Brown, but his athletic and playmaking ability are off the charts. In what I expect to be a very close game, Brown’s explosiveness could very well be the difference in this one.

Finally, I want to point out that when these teams met in week 2 of the season, Buffalo dismantled the Dolphins 29 - 10. They held the Dolphins to a 3.9 YPP average, allowed Tannehill to only average 4.9 passing yards per attempt, while at the same time were able to consistently move the chains. The Bills had short FG’s of 27, 27, 31, 32, and 38 yards in the game, and if 1 or 2 of those were converted into TD’s, the score would have been even greater. Important to note, that the QB for Buffalo in that game was EJ Manuel, and the Bills will have a better one playing for them tonight.

Bottom line is that we have two teams that know each other very well, both have stout defenses, and scoring points could be difficult. In a low-scoring game, the underdog is often worth a look. But when you get a favorite that is dealing with some major injuries to key players on a short week, then the value on that underdog gets even higher. Buffalo is 4-1 ATS against Miami in the last 5 games and the Bills are 3-1 ATS on the road this year. This one feels like a 3-point game though I believe Bills have a better chance of winning. I’ll grab the 4-points with confidence.

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DHAYES2

2* Bills 10.5 & Redskins 1.5 Tease

1* USC

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INDIAN COWBOY ( NBA)

3*#507. Take Under 208.5 – Brooklyn vs. Golden State (Thursday @ 10:35pm est)

[kar261]

Budin. 50 Dime
Cincy +3 (buy hook)