11-16-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CFL | SASKATCHEWAN at EDMONTON
Play Against - Any team (EDMONTON) good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 9+ games, after allowing 325 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games
25-4 since 1997. ( 86.2% | 20.6 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

CFL | BRITISH COLUMBIA at MONTREAL
Play On - Road underdogs vs. the money line (BRITISH COLUMBIA) off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss
27-22 since 1997. ( 55.1% | 0.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

CFL | SASKATCHEWAN at EDMONTON
Play Against - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (EDMONTON) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season
38-12 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.0% | 24.8 units )
6-2 this year. ( 75.0% | 3.8 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE (NFL)

Sunday November 16th 2014

4 Unit Play Take #451 Houston +3.5 over Cleveland (1:00pm est):
The Houston Texans announced that they made the switch at quarterback to Ryan Mallet last week during their bye week. The Texans last game was a home loss to Philadelphia 31-21 but the story from that game was with all the injuries Houston had before and during the contest. They went into the start of that game without the NFL’s #1 draft pick Jadeveon Clowney and they were also without their leading tackler Brian Cushing. They then lost both of their starting cornerbacks in the 1st quarter and star running back Arian Foster as well later in the game. Most of these guys are expected to be back this week after having had two weeks to heal up. The Texans are a greatly improved team from last season but that point still seems to be flying under the radar due to their four losses in their last five games. That’s not as bad as it sounds as the four losses were all by 10 points or less and they came against Dallas, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Indianapolis. Three of those four teams are what most would agree are very good teams this year with the 4th (Pittsburgh) being above .500 overall and who are playing very well.

The Cleveland Browns have played the easiest schedule in the entire NFL this year. Strength of schedule is something I feel is a huge hidden stat this time of the year in the NFL as all teams have only played 9 or 10 games so far this season. They beat the New Orleans Saints earlier this season in an outdoor road game for New Orleans. The Saints playing outdoors on the grass are a much worse team than when their playing a game indoors. The Browns ended up making a couple huge plays on their last drive of the game that started on their own 4 yard line and kicked a game winning field goal to win. Cleveland’s next win was another miracle type victory as they came all the way back from being down 25 points in the game and beat the Titans 29-28. Add in a couple more victories over two of the worst teams in the NFL (Buccaneers and Raiders) to the mix. Last week they beat a Bengals team who looked like it didn’t even show up for the game as they ended up turning the ball over 4 times to the Browns in the game. Cleveland has a loss to a terrible Jacksonville team on their resume as the win was the Jaguars only victory on the season so far. The Browns recently lost their star center Alex Mack to a season ending injury and though they did play a little better on offense last week, they’ve really struggled to move the football ever since Mack went down.

Take Houston and the points here.

3 Unit Play Take #471 Detroit +1 over Arizona (4:25pm est):
I’ve been looking to bet against the Arizona Cardinals and here’s a good spot to do that. The Cardinals somehow have just one loss on the season so far. They don’t run the ball well at all and they won’t be able to do so here against one of the top run defenses in the NFL. That means Arizona will need to rely on backup quarterback Drew Stanton who gets the start for the injured Carson Palmer. Stanton hasn’t played much in his career and there’s a reason for that, he’s not very good. Now he’s faced with having to perform against the top ranked defense in the NFL here. This is a huge factor and as long as Detroit doesn’t turn the ball over more than once I don’t see how Stanton can put points on the board for the Cardinals in this game.

The Lions defense has been fantastic all season long. If someone has moved the football on them, their defense has stepped late in the game and shut them down. I’ve said last week that you can judge Detroit’s offensive numbers this year as superstar Calvin Johnson hasn’t been healthy long enough. We’ve had glimpses of throughout the year and along with free agent pick-up Golden Tate these two are as good as it gets. This is a very confident team who has the much better quarterback and defense in this game.

Take Detroit here.

3 Unit Play Take #474 Indianapolis -3 over New England (8:30pm est):
The New England Patriots have been on fire of late but when you take a deeper look into why that it is you notice some alarming things. The Patriots have faced an easier than normal schedule this season so far. They have faced only one good quarterback this season and that was in their last game, a win over the Denver and Peyton Manning who threw for over 400 yards in the contest. Go down the list of teams that New England has faced this year outside of Denver and Manning and see where these quarterbacks rate in QBR currently (Miami 20th, Minnesota 47th, Oakland 30th, KC 22nd, Cincinnati 26th, Buffalo 32nd, Jets 35th and Chicago 19th). The Patriots haven’t faced one quarterback rated in the top 50% in the NFL in QBR this season besides Manning. Now they must face arguably the games best young quarterback here on the road in this one. New England has once again had a huge year in turnover margin. There’s obviously something to this as they consistently have had a huge positive turnover margin edge over (+88 since 2010) the last five years. If you look at the top teams this year in fumble recovery percentage, a stat that most agree has proven to be related to being lucky, the Patriots appear in the top 5 teams in not one but on both the offense and defensive fumble recovery percentage lists so far this year. The Patriots are the only team in the NFL to do be ranked in the top 5 of both of these categories currently.

Andrew Luck looks to have taken the next step in his career this season. The former #1 pick has thrown for over 300 yards in 8 of his first 9 games this season. Lucas Oil Stadium should be rocking in this primetime Sunday night clash as the Colts face off versus their long time rivals the New England Patriots. The Colts are a very solid 17-4 at home in the 2.5 years that Luck has been their quarterback. This will also be a huge revenge game here for the Colts as they were knocked out of last season’s playoffs by New England.

Take Indianapolis in this game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS (NFL)

6-Unit Play. Take #473 New England (+3) over Indianapolis (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

Brady on primetime. Sold. The Patriots and Tom Brady are playing better than anyone in football right now, and I love them getting points in this game. They aren’t going to need the points as the Patriots will go into Indy and win this game outright. Something is going to have to give in this one. Both teams are very good. The Colts have covered 18 of their last 23 home games while the Patriots have covered five of their last six in November. This is when the Pats get good. The end of the season is right around the corner and New England is making a push for home field advantage. Yes, the Colts have a shot as well, but they just aren’t ready. Brady and company get the job done on the road and their stellar play continues. New England was 2-2 after getting embarassed by Kansas City on national TV. Since that point the Patriots are 5-0 S.U. and they are beating their opponents by an average score of 40-22. Take the points in this one, but you won’t need them.

4-Unit Play. Take #456 Green Bay (-5.5) over Philadelphia (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

This is the game where Mark Sanchez goes back to his old self. Last weekend was that one game where he re-lives his old glory days, but this Sunday will be a different story. This is Green Bay in November. The gametime temperature is supposed to be in the 20s and possibly the teens. This is Packers weather, not Mark Sanchez weather. Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus the NFC. At the begining of the season I felt like Green Bay had a shot to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, and I still do. People will really take notice after a double-digit victory over the Eagles. Philly had to play on MNF and now they turn around on a short week and head to Green Bay, yeiks! Not what the doctor ordered. Philly is just 1-4 ATS in their last five Sunday games following a Monday Night Football game. Lay the points in this one on the home team, as the Pack roll.

3-Unit Play. Take #472 Arizona (-1) over Detroit (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

Arizona is without their starting QB and they are still favored over a team that is 7-2? Yes, and we like it. This Cardinals team is solid on both sides of the ball, and they take advantage of teams that turn the ball over, which is what the Lions are good at. Calvin Johnson is going to get his, but the rest of the Lions will struggled in this huge NFC battle. Detroit hasn’t won in Arizona since 1993, losing their last seven trips out West. This weekend will be number eight. Detroit is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. Arizona meanwhile is 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games versus the NFC. Lay the small number on the home team in this one as Arizona continues its impressive run this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN (NFL)

4-Unit Play. Take #459 Atlanta (-1) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

I like the Falcons in this one. Cam Newton is injured for the Panthers. He was sacked nine times on Monday Night Football. The Panthers offense has all kinds of problems and now their quarterback and best player is hurt. The Panthers didn’t even have a full week to recover for this game as they had to travel after being blown out on MNF. The Falcons had a bye week and then went on the road and got a win over Tampa Bay. That was an easy win. Atlanta took advantage of its bye week and they looked sharp. Carolina has a bye week next week. They are banged up all over the field and I think they are just looking forward to the week off. The Falcons have a big edge at quarterback and at receiver right now. And the Panthers defense is not nearly as strong as the one we saw last year. The Falcons are just one game out of first place in the division despite having just two wins heading into last week. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five divisional games. They look better than the Panthers. Carolina hasn’t won a game since Oct. 5 and they are just 1-6-1 in their last eight games overall. Go with the Falcons.

4-Unit Play. Take #462 New Orleans (-7) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

I think that the Saints are going to bounce back from last week’s home loss. I don’t see this team losing two games in a row at home. They felt like they were robbed of a win last week against the 49ers. A pass interference call erased the winning touchdown and that score would’ve been a huge win for me and one of my NFL 411 plays. The Bengals were blown out at home by the Browns last week. They were embarrassed on Thursday night in prime time. The Bengals are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. This team is really struggling on defense. And Andy Dalton is having one of his worst seasons as a pro. If this game becomes a shootout I like the home team and Drew Brees. The Saints are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 home games and they are 4-1 ATS the last five times they have played a team with a winning record. I like the Saints to make up for last week’s loss with a two-touchdown winner in this one. Lay the points.

4-Unit Play. Take #467 San Francisco (-4) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

I like the 49ers in this one. They have not had a lot of success historically against the Giants. But New York looks like a team that is quitting on the season. They were run over in Seattle last week. Their rush defense gave up around 300 yards on the ground! The 49ers are going to do the same things that the Seahawks did. I don’t think the Giants will be able to stop them. Tom Coughlin looks like a lame duck coach and this team is going nowhere. The 49ers got a tough win at New Orleans last weekend. Now they are back on the road and this team also has a win at Dallas this year. They are always tough on the road because this is a veteran team with a strong defense and running game. The 49ers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games. The 49ers are still fighting for a playoff spot. I don’t know if the Giants have any fight left. Lay the points.

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 45.5 – Tampa Bay at Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

The Tampa Bay offense just continues to have trouble moving the ball. They have not really settled on a quarterback this year. They have given a lot of snaps to McCown and to Glennon. And this team has not found a rhythm. The Bucs will again be without their star running back Doug Martin too. Tampa could only score 17 points against a bad Falcons defense last week. They have not scored over 17 points in their last four games. Tampa Bay has only scored over 17 points two times in their nine games this year! They are No. 27 in the league in scoring offense and No. 29 in total offense. The Bucs defense has been much better since its bye week. They have only given up an average of 23 points per game since then. That is well below their season average of 30 points per game. I don’t see much explosiveness from either offense. The under is 5-2 in Washington’s last seven games after a bye and the under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

3-Unit Play. Take #470 San Diego (-10) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

The Chargers need to get back on track. They were embarrassed 37-0 in their last game down in Miami. They had to deal with that for two weeks since this team is coming off a bye week. I bet the coaching staff used that as big motivation. The Chargers aren’t going to take the Raiders lightly. Oakland nearly knocked off San Diego a few weeks ago. The Chargers have been in a slide. But their bye week came at a good time. I think San Diego has regrouped. I think Philip Rivers will shred that bad Oakland secondary just like Peyton Manning did last week and the Raiders are going to stay winless.

8-Unit Play. Take #474 Indianapolis (-3) over New England (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

This play is from my NFL 411 System. The NFL 411 System has used the Colts four times and it has gone 3-1 in those games. That includes the Monday Night Football blowout winner over the Giants on Monday Night Football two weeks ago. The system loves this team and it is not hard to see why. They have the No. 1 offense in the NFL. The Colts are also a great home team with Andrew Luck. They beat Denver at home last year in a similar marquee game. They will do the same thing here. Indianapolis has had two weeks to prepare for this game and they do not have to travel. That is a big edge. The Patriots have been blowing teams out lately. But that was at home. New England is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 road games. They are just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning record. The Colts are 6-1 ATS after a bye week and they are 18-5 ATS at home. The Colts are 23-9 ATS against teams in the AFC and this is their biggest game of the season. I think Indianapolis will win this one in a shootout and bury the public in the process. Lay the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS

2-Unit Play. Take #451 Houston (+3) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)
I know that everyone is in love with the Browns right now. I am not. I think this team is trash. Yes, they are on a rush. And yes, they are playing really well at home. Above themselves. But this is not a good team by any stretch. They have benefitted greatly from playing one of the weakest schedules in football, crossing over against the dumpster fire divisions of the NFC and AFC Souths. Houston has had two weeks to prepare for this game and I think they have a good chance to win outright. The Browns run that Shanahan offense. Well, Gary Kubiak ran the exact same offense in Houston for the past six years. So the Texans defense saw that offense every single day for years and they probably know more about what Cleveland wants to do than the Browns do. Ryan Mallett is a huge X-Factor. But outside of that one position group you could make an argument that the Texans are better than the Browns all over the field. I am going against the public on this one.

4-Unit Play. Take #454 Chicago (-3) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)
This is kind of a fundamental rule of sports betting: when everyone and their sister is running away from a team that is the time that you want to be running toward them. The Bears were humiliated last Sunday night. And all week everyone from coast-to-coast has (justifiably) been trashing them. Yet here they are as home favorites. Well, that’s because I think the Bears are going to come to play and for one week at least shut some people up. Guys have jobs, livelihoods on the line. This team needs a win. And after getting lit up last week against Green Bay they absolutely have something to prove. The Vikings have not been a good road team. They have a rookie quarterback who is notoriously bad in cold weather. And they are going up against a bunch of guys that should be playing with a chip on their shoulder. The Bears are 0-3 at home this year. They are going to win a home game at some point. I think that this spot looks as good as any.

1-Unit Play. Take #455 Philadelphia (+6) over Green Bay (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

2-Unit Play. Take #458 Kansas City (-1.5) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)
Seattle hasn’t beaten a good team in months. Don’t be fooled by their recent run; this team is shaky. They just are not as good as they were last year and it is just not the same team. Injuries are crushing this team on defense. And offensively they just don’t have the firepower to punch through a Kansas City defense that has been going apeshit on people at home. They have allowed just 31 points in their last three home games and have won each of them by double-figures. The Chiefs have won four straight and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight. Andy Reid is just working that magic and alex Smith is familiar with the Seahawks defense from his time in San Francisco. The Giants, Raiders, Panthers and Redskins. Those are the last four teams Seattle has beaten. I think it is a stretch to think that they are going to go on the road and push around a good home team in this one.

3-Unit Play. Take #462 New Orleans (-7) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)
I think that the Bengals are frauds. They look awful right now. It is not a coincidence that former defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is now coaching a Top 10 defense in Minnesota while the Bengals are floundering as one of the worst defenses in football. They weren’t even close to stopping a bad Cleveland defense last week. I don’t see them slowing down Drew Brees. The Saints don’t lose at home very often. I don’t see them losing twice in two weeks. They are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 home games and they have lit people up in the Superdome. The Bengals’ record is padded by the fact that they have played five of their last seven games at home against some pretty bad/mediocre competition. Their last two road games? They lost 27-0 to the Colts and 43-17 to the Patriots. I expect something similar here. The Bengals will score points because the Saints defense is pathetic too. But the Bengals won’t score enough to keep up. I can see this one being like 38-24 or some variation of that type of game.

4-Unit Play. Take #465 Denver (-9.5) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)
This week is Peyton Manning’s first game in a dome this season and just his fourth in the past 40 regular season games with Denver. The Broncos averaged 40.3 points per game in the previous three dome games and Manning is back in his element. I thought that this number should’ve been -13 and I absolutely think that Denver will win this game by 10 or more. The fact of the matter is that I just don’t see St. Louis’ defense being able to slow Manning down. And there is just no way that Shaun Hill is going to be able to keep up in a shootout. The Broncos have the No. 1 run defense in football so it is going to be all on Hill, who hasn’t started in two months. The Rams are averaging just 18 points per game on offense and they are allowing 31 points per game on defense. That says it all right there. I think Denver will get to (or near) 40 points all on their own. The Rams will chip in 14 or 17 points to get it ‘over’ and I see the Broncos dropping the hammer.

2-Unit Play. Take #467 San Francisco (-4) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)
I know that this game looks like a trap. And there are a lot of situational factors working in the Giants’ favor. But I just think that if the 49ers are good enough to go on the road and win in New Orleans – where no one wins but the Saints – then they are good enough to beat the Giants. The G-Men just rolled over in Seattle last week and the Seahawks ran the ball down their throat. San Francisco is going to use the exact same game plan. And unless the Giants found six new linebackers this week it should work again. San Francisco is in a dogfight for the playoffs and they will be focused. The Giants look like a team ready to give up on the season. Tom Coughlin is a lame duck and under his guidance this team has gone 19-44 ATS in the month of November. That seems like an arbitrary stat. But we’re talking about over 10 years’ worth of games. It’s just not your month guys. This spread should’ve been 6.0.

1-Unit Play. Take #470 San Diego (-10) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

2-Unit Play. Take #471 Detroit (+2) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

1-Unit Play. Take #473 New England (+3) over Indianapolis (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

This Week’s Totals

5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 46.5 - Minnesota at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

This game just fits into why I like the Bears ATS in this game as well. They have become the first team in the NFL in nearly 100 years (not a typo) to give up over 50 points in back-to-back games. That is absolutely pathetic. The problem with the Bears defense is not entirely talent. Chris Conte might be the worst player in the NFL. He really might. And Shea McClellan is an absolute bust and just not an NFL-caliber player. But other than those two losers – who the Bears somehow keep starting – Chicago has some talent on defense. The problem with Chicago is that their defensive coordinator, Mel Tucker, is a complete and total loser. The guy has no business being an NFL coach. And I don’t know that he should be a high school coach. He plays a child-like defensive scheme that has been shreded by any competent quarterback this year. But here’s the thing: Teddy Bridgewater isn’t necessarily equipped to take advantage of Tucker’s stupidity. Mike Zimmer is trying to develop a ground-and-pound, defense-and-no-mistakes philosophy with the Vikings. As such, they are 27th in total offense, 29th in passing, and 26th in scoring. They have been held to less than 20 points in six of their last eight games. Also, the weather is going to be a major factor in this one. It will be right around freezing and the wind will be blowing between 12-18 mph. That’s going to slow this game down to a halt and should turn it into a grinder. The Vikings have a Top 10 defense and have had two weeks to prepare for the Bears attack. I see this game finishing similar to Chcago’s win over Atlanta (27-13) and I think this one stays ‘under’ as the Bears defense finally shows some pride and uses the home field, the weather, and the motivation to put in a decent effort.

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 51.0 – Denver at St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 55.5 – Philadelphia at Green Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 41.5 – Houston at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 42.5 – Seattle at Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.0 – San Francisco at N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 46.5 – Atlanta at Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 50.5 - Cincinnati at New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 41.5 - Detroit at Arizona (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS

(Winner) 3 Unit Play. #310 Miami -4 ½ over Buffalo (8:25p.m., Thursday, November 13 NFL)

5 Unit Play. #456 Green Bay -5 ½ over Philadelphia (4:25p.m., Sunday, Nov 16 FOX)
(Game of the Week) Two teams that are coming off big Week #10 games and since this game is playing in cold Lambeau Field. The Eagles defense had it easy Monday night against the Carolina Panthers but Sunday late afternoon the Eagles defense has to do with Aaron Rodgers. Philadelphia is coming off a short week and now they have to travel to Green Bay and play the red hot healthy Packers. This game is going to be fun to watch and if Aaron Rodgers plays like he did against the Bears defense this game will be over quickly. It’s no surprise the Eagles defense has been their question mark all season long and again Green Bay will pick apart the Eagles secondary. Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and the Eagles are 4-12-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning record. The favorite in this series is also 5-2 ATS.

2 Unit Play. #465 Over 50 ½ – Denver at St. Louis (1:00p.m., Sunday, Nov 16 CBS)
Why not! Peyton Manning indoors could get ugly for the Rams defense. The Broncos offense is averaging 35.1ppg in their last 6 games and the Rams defense could be in for a long evening. Denver is 4-0 O/U following a SU win and the Rams are 8-1 O/U in their last 9 games in November. The Rams are 12-5 O/U in their last 17 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE DAVIS (NFL)

7-Unit Play. Take #465 Denver (-9.5) over St. Louis Rams (Sunday, November 16 at 1:00 p.m.)

Denver was humiliated two weeks ago vs New England. How did they respond? They demolished Oakland last week, 41-17. This week is their third game on the road in a row and it comes vs. a Rams team that is banged up in the secondary. Uh oh. Also, the Rams have decided to go back to Shaun Hill at quarterback since he is healthy. I’m not sure this is the game in which I would have made that decision. Denver can really get after the passer and the Rams don’t have any big playmakers on the outside to test Talib and the Broncos’ secondary. Peyton and the offense are playing well and they should have a field day against this Rams team. St. Louis has had a tough time getting to opposing quarterbacks and their secondary isn’t great. That’s a brutal combination when facing Peyton Manning. St. Louis may keep it close for a while but the Broncos will pull away in the end.

Take Denver.

5-Unit Play. Take #454 Chicago (-3) over Minnesota (Sunday, November 16 at 1:00 p.m.)

Make no mistake about it: The Chicago Bears as we know them could change drastically if they don’t right the ship quickly. If ever a team was backed into a corner, this is it. The Bears have been horrible as of late losing 5 out of 6 games. However, if you take a closer look at their opponents, you will see they have played some tough competition. Their five losses were to Green Bay, at Carolina (a game in which they were dominating), Miami, at New England and at Green Bay. They turned the ball over 12 times in those ball games. There is no excuse for the way they have played lately but I still like this offense, and I look for them to play really well this week at home. I really like Mike Zimmer and the job he has done in Minnesota. He has the Vikings at 4-5 despite losing the league’s best RB and his starting QB. I commend him. However, look closer at the results. The Vikings’ four wins have come against St. Louis, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Washington. Sure, any win in the NFL is a tough win. However, that isn’t exactly the who’s who of the NFL this season. The Vikings are a team to watch out for in coming years with Zimmer at the helm. However, they are walking into a tough spot this week.

Take the Bears.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PHIL STEELE / INSIDE THE PRESSBOX NFL

BEST BETS

BROWNS 28 TEXANS 21

PACKERS 35 EAGLES 27

SAINTS 34 BENGALS 20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFLBetting Picks / Kevin

Kevin’s Pick(s):

4 UNIT = Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers – OVER 54.5 POINTS (-110)
(Note: I’m risking 4.00 units to win 3.64 units)

*4 unit just means double the bet size of a 2 unit play. Don’t go all out just because it’s my highest rated play. Although 4 units have been profitable for both Kyle and I this season, they can still lose of course. With that said they fit the strongest systems I have going. Click here to get all of my picks this week.

Kyle’s Pick(s)

2 UNIT = Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints – OVER 50.5 (-110)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)

Remember before the Patriots game regarding the public perception around the Bengals was? There were some people already slotting them into the Super Bowl. This was finally going to be the year that Andy Dalton won a post-season start. Flash forward to now and are they even going to make the playoffs? This is a must win, in my opinion, for the Bengals after last weeks Thursday night disaster against the Browns. If they beat the Saints on the road this week then you’re going to start hearing people talk about how the Bengals are back on track. They’ve had an extra few days to prepare for this game, so they better look A LOT better than what they looked like against the Browns. Tall order here against the Saints at home. The Saints’ offense has been one of the the most prolific home offense in the NFL under Drew Brees the past few years. At home in 2014 the Saints have averaged 31.5 points per game. Other than a slow start against the Vikings early in the season they’ve been potent for the most part. Overall the Saints are putting up 435 yards per game for 2nd in the NFL, behind only the Colts. I would usually say that the Bengals defense is the most underrated in the NFL. And previously they were. But since beating the Titans 33-7, the defense has had to face some injuries and regressed. Since then the Bengals have allowed 30 points a game, including 43 points to the Patriots and 37 to the Carolina Panthers. They haven’t held a team under 20 points since that Titans game, something they were becoming known for was the defense. Losing their best linebacker Vontaze Burfict and corner Leon Hall didn’t help the cause. The Bengals’ offense looked totally out of sync last week, but with over a week to prepare for the Saints, I think Andy Dalton will look much better. This will be AJ Green’s second game back after sitting with an injury. I think him and Dalton will link up to have a fairly big game after having the chance to get in sync in practice this week. A score of 33-24 looks good in this game. I doubt the Saints will be rejected short of 30 points, and the Bengals shouldn’t look like a high school offense two weeks straight. I like the OVER 50.5 for this early Sunday afternoon game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CULP SPORTS

The 5 Spot

Falcons +1.5
Chargers -10
Packers -6
Cardinals -2
Colts/Pats gm – OVER 58

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play Sun SF 49 ers -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Steamroller ($25 guaranteed pick sheet)
Niners -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

5* Teaser saints -1 & gb+1 1/2
4* Seattle +1 1/2
3* Houston +3 1/2
2* New England +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nfl Predictions

4 units phil/Gb over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookieshunter

3* Lions