11-16-14

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Candela Deportiva
Top Parlay
Philadelphia RL +4.5 (NFL)
New Orleans RL -7 (NFL)


Other games
Sam Fco over 44 (NFL)
Kentucky RL -32 (BC)
San Luis RL +9.5 (NFL)
Washington RL -6.5 (NFL)
Milwaukee RL +5 (NBA)
Lakers RL +8.5 (NBA)

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RAINMAN

5 Saints
3 Seattle
3 New England
1 Arizona
1 St Louis

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Mti Killer Sports Teaser

Saints/Pats

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Rocky Atkinson/Rocketman

Detroit @ Arizona 4:25 PM EST
Play On: Arizona Pick -120

The Detroit Lions travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals on Sunday‡ afternoon. Detroit is 7-2 SU overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 8-1 SU overall record on the season. Detroit is 1-5 ATS last 3 years after two or more consecutive wins. Arizona is 6-0 SU and ATS against conference opponents this year. Arizona is 6-1 ATS this year on turf. Arizona is scoring 24.8 points per game overall this year and 25.2 points per game at home this season. Arizona is scoring 27.7 points per game their past 3 games overall. Arizona is 7-1 SU and ATS at home vs Detroit last 8 meetings. We'll play Arizona for 3 DIMES today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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Nemo ShipIt:

Colts -3

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Doc CBB:

4 Unit Play. #724 Take Missouri -5 over Valparaiso (6 pm SEC Network) The Tigers losing their home opener makes this play that much stronger. Missou lost most of their talent from last season but they are still an SEC school playing a school from the Horizon League. Missouri gets a major upgrade in coaching with Kim Anderson and he knows the importance of this game to avoid starting the season 0-2. We used Valpo as a play on Friday and won but the short turnaround and travel will due them in tonight in Columbia. The Tigers just could not make a shot in their home opener but things should change for the better on Sunday. Valpo's cover on Friday night was the first time it has happened in their last 8 games

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Robert Ferringo NCAAB
7* Northeastern

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Mike O'Connor/Dr. Bob

**WASHINGTON (-7)32 Tampa Bay 17

SunNov-16-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 464 Over/Under 45.5
Washington is the betterteam in this game and have had two weeks to prepare coming off the bye to getquarterback Robert Griffin acclimated back into the offense. The Redskinsstatistical profile paints the picture of a pretty good team but they havefallen victim to turnovers (-9 differential on the season with some negativefumble luck) and poor third down play (ranked #30 offensively) and (19th worstdefensively). If there is any regression back to the mean with either of thosecategories, Washington could be tough to beat. Overall they have a top tieroffense that gains 382 yards at 6.2 yppl against teams that allow 362 yards at5.7 yppl and a defense that is just better than average (allowing 5.4 ypplagainst teams that gain 5.5 yppl).

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is a lower tier team and have a statistical profile thatsupports that reality. Offensively, the Bucs have been terrible, averaging 312yards at 5.3 yppl against teams that allow 365 yards at 5.8 yppl and with a -7turnover differential overall that has actually benefitted from slightlypositive fumble luck. A match-up of note is the Redskin passing offense, whichhas the potential to be explosive, against the Bucs poor pass defense that isallowing 280 yards at 7.5 yps to teams that gain 251 yards at 6.6 yps onaverage. The Bucs may also once again be missing their best cover corner inAlterraun Verner, which certainly won’t help.

My model predicts a 19.4 point Washington victory and games that have a 10point or more difference from my model line have been consistent winners overthe years. I like the match-ups, the situation and the line value and as aresult I like the Redskins -7 for 2-stars up to -7 (-120).
**Minnesota(+1.5) 26 CHICAGO 20

SunNov-16-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 453 Over/Under 46.5
The Bears have been in adownward spiral for the past six weeks going 1-5 SU and ATS had have had somefortunate bounces in two of their wins earlier this season. They are not a verygood team right now and are lacking in confidence overall. I read reports frombeat writers in Chicago that claim that the Bears have given up and while I’mpretty sure that is not the case, they have a defense that is terrible and hasgotten progressively worse the past few weeks. Many teams in the NFL havetalent and bounce from good to bad as situations dictate, but a team that givesup over 50 points in back to back games including being outscored 80-7 in thefirst half in those games is not a good team. Quarterback Jay Cutler has reallystruggled in committing a league-high 15 turnovers and has just an 8-12 recordunder Mark Trestman. This is a Bears team that is apparently suffering from alack of real leadership and poor coaching, specifically on defense, and thatdoes not bode well moving forward. On the other side, the Vikings seem to bejust the opposite with a coaching staff that the players have bought into, animproving defense and a consistent message coming from its leadership.Minnesota has improved gradually this season and have now won their last two(easily could have been three in a row – a 16-17 loss in Buffalo being a gamethat they should have won) and have had the past two weeks to work on theirgame. After a slow start, the Vikings rush attack has steadily improved behindthe play of RB Jerick McKinnon, who has taken on a larger role recently. Sinceplaying a more prominent role the past seven weeks, McKinnon is averaging 73rushing yards per game at 5.2 ypr. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has playedbetter recently as well and has not thrown an interception the past two gamesbehind an improved pass blocking offensive line.

These are two teams going in different directions and the Vikings are in a goodspot as an improving team learning new systems coming off the bye. They qualifyin a good 139-66-7 statistical match-up situation and should be able to movethe ball well on a bad Bears defense while Chicago should struggle against animproving Vikings defense that has allowed just 5.4 yppl to teams that gain 5.7yppl on average. If the Vikings get off to a good start, the home crowd couldget a bit restless and for a team with a fragile psyche like the Bears rightnow, things could spiral down quickly. I like the Vikings +1.5 for 2-starsdown to pk.
**Seattle (+1) 27KANSAS CITY 19

SunNov-16-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 457 Over/Under 42.5
After dropping back to backgames versus Dallas and St Louis, the Seahawks have gotten back on track,winning their last three games. Dealing with injuries along their offensiveline and on defense, the Seahawks didn’t look particularly impressive invictories over the Panthers and the Raiders but really dominated the Giantslast week, rushing for 350 yards at 8.2 ypr. Center Max Unger and left tackleRussell Okung were back from injury and they helped pave the way for MarshawnLynch and Russell Wilson to kill the Giants with the read-option. I expect theSeahawks to dial up more of the same this week as they face a Chiefs team thathas not been good defending the run. Seattle has a huge advantage on the groundin this game and have averaged 172 yards rushing at 5.8 ypr against teams thatallow 119 yards at 4.5 ypr. They’ll face a Kansas City defense that has allowed4.8 ypr against teams that typically gain 4.2 ypr. In addition, the Seahawkscan really shut down the run and have allowed just 81 yards at 3.4 ypr to teamsthat gain 100 yards at 4.0 ypr. If Kansas City has trouble running the ball, itcould be a long day as they don’t have a downfield passing attack. Theirlongest pass play of the season is 34 yards, the lowest in the league. Inaddition, tight end Anthony Fasano didn’t practice this week and is a bigquestion mark heading into this game. Kansas City loves to utilize multipletight end personnel and will be restricted in what they like to do if Fasanocan’t go. If the Seahawks can play downhill and crowd the line of scrimmage,the Chiefs will have major problems scoring.

The Seahawks qualify in a good 136-65-7 situation and my model predicts a 2.3point Seattle victory. With Russell Wilson at quarterback, the Seahawks are 9-1ATS as a dog and with ground to make up in their division, they’ll be motivatedto perform well. I like the Seahawks +1 for 2-stars down to -1.
***GREEN BAY(-5.5) 34 Philadelphia 19

SunNov-16-2014 at 01:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 456 Over/Under 56.5
Since starting the season1-2, the Packers have been on fire, going 5-1 SU and ATS the past six weeks,winning by an average score of 37-21. Their offense has been lights out andlast week made it look easy as Aaron Rodgers threw for six touchdowns in thefirst half on their way to a 42-0 halftime lead. The Packers possess my toprated offense in the NFC and can score on anyone so the question is whetherMark Sanchez and the Philly offense can keep up. I don’t think that they willbe able to on the road as Mark Sanchez career 3.7% interception rate will haveto deal with an opportunistic Packers defense that is tied for the league leadwith 12 interceptions. Conversely, Aaron Rodgers just does not turn the ballover and consistently has one of the lowest interception rates in the league(1.7%). At home he is even better, hitting nearly 69 percent of his passes at9.9 yps this season. In addition, he has thrown for 15 touchdowns without aninterception at home this season and according to the Elias Sports Bureau, his10-game streak without an interception at home is the longest in NFL history bytwo games. As a function of a low interception percentage on offense and a highpercentage on defense, Green Bay is fourth in the league with a +10 turnoverdifferential. In addition, Green Bay is 29-3 at Lambeau over the past fiveseason when Rodgers has been the starting QB.

The Packers qualify in a good 105-55-4 statistical match-up situation that is6-0 so far this season and also benefit from a number of negative situationsthat play against the Eagles that are 36-87-5, 25-44-5 and 9-41-2. My modelpredicts a 7.5 point Packers win so with the combination of line value and goodsituations, I’ll take the Packers -5.5 for 3-stars up to -6 and for 2-starsat up to -7.
***INDIANAPOLIS(-3) 36 New England 24

SunNov-16-2014 at 05:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 474 Over/Under 57.5
Both teams are coming offbyes and should be prepared to face off in a battle of division leaders in whatshould be a great game to watch. This game is about playoff seeding in the AFCas the Patriots hold a one game lead over the Colts for the #2 seed and thewinner of this game would be in the lead for a first round bye. While Belichickis one of the best coaches in the game, he is just average coming off the bye(with Brady) at 9-8-1 ATS and 11-13-1 ATS overall in his career. While thePatriots have been impressive since their Week 4 loss to the Chiefs, they havebeaten a schedule of teams with a combined 22-23-1 record. They tend to playmuch better at home and are just 2-2 SU so far this season in away games and8-12 ATS on the road since 2011. In fact, with Brady, New England is just 6-8ATS in the role of away underdog after Week 10. Meanwhile, the Colts have beenexcellent playing at home with a 3-1 ATS record this season and are 16-5 ATSoverall at home since Luck came on board back in 2012. Indy qualifies in a good105-55-4 statistical match-up situation that is 6-0 so far this season and alsobenefit from several good situations that play against the Patriots that are35-78-4, 17-49-2, 25-44-5 and a subset that is 3-16-2. The math predicts a 7.1point Colts victory and with the combination of good situations and line value,I’ll take the Colts -3 -105 for 3-stars up to -3 -115 and for 2-stars at upto -3 -125.

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kelso

100 cleveland

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EXECUTIVE

400 - washington
300 - cincy
150 - kc
100 - philly
100 - new england

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Inside info:

3- hou,
2- sea

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PSYCHIC
(1-5)

4 unit Kansas City 1 (MAJOR)
4 unit Denver -9.5 (MAJOR)
5 unit Arizona Pk (WISEGUY)

WIZARD
(1-10)

8 unit Green Bay -5
10 unit Indianapolis (SNF Shocker of the Year)

JT WALKER
(all units same one10 unit)

San Diego -10

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Big money:

Sf

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Alatex

20* KC

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Preferred picks:

4-gom:sea,
3- oak