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6-Unit Play. Take #728 Florida State (-11) over Northeastern (7 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 18)
This is a very strong Florida State team. I think they will be one of the top teams in the ACC this year even though they are not getting as much credit as the other top teams in the league. Northeastern is coming off a hard fought win over rival Boston University. That game was played on the Celtics’ home court at TD Center in Boston. Now the Huskies have to go on the road and face a tough ACC opponent. Northeastern is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall and they are 1-4 ATS after a win. Florida State is 10-4 ATS in its last 15 nonconference games. The Seminoles won and covered easily in their opener. I think they will do the same thing in this game. Lay the points in this one as FSU is just too much.
NBA Pick #1: 701 Los Angeles Lakers @ 702 Atlanta Hawks
Rating: 3 units – Single Dime Play
Pick: Los Angeles Lakers (+9.5) (Play up to +8.5)
Odds: -105
Detailed Write Up:
The Lakers have in this match up some key factors that will be favorable to them and that will turn the team into a more competitive team than usual in here. First of all, Carroll will still be out for tonight’s game and he’s Atlanta’s best wing defender, so Kobe will have an easier than expected match up in here. The Lakers’ offense had problems against Golden State’s aggressive defense, but Atlanta’s defense is far from being as aggressive as the Warriors.
I also predict the Lakers to have a great edge on rebounding tonight, as Atlanta is just #19 on defensive rebounding in the league, while the Lakers are #4 in the league on offensive rebounding. Atlanta’s offense will obviously generate some points against the Lakers’ poor defense, but with Kobe, Young coming off the bench and a rebounding edge, I expect the LA team to actually turn this game into a competitive one. Therefore, I’ll take the Lakers in here.
NBA Picks #2 & #3: 703 New York Knicks @ 704 Milwaukee Bucks
Rating: 3 units – Single Dime Play
Pick: New York Knicks (+2.5) (Play up to pk)
Odds: -113
Rating: 3 units – Single Dime Play
Pick: Over 191 (Play up to 192.5)
Odds: -113
Detailed Write Up:
This is quite favorable match up for the Knicks. Milwaukee has been a nice surprise early on the season thanks to a great defense. They are particularly good on rim defense thanks to Sanders and in fact two of their last three opponents scored just 28 and 24 points at the paint against them!
The good news for the Knicks is that their offense isn’t directed at scoring near the basket. In fact, they are one of the teams in the league that shoots the lowest amount of shots near the basket, as they’re a mid-range jump shooting team, something that will remove Milwaukee’s defense out of their comfort zone.
On the other side, Milwaukee’s offense loves to attack the rim by being #3 in the league in volume shots at the rim. However, the Knicks’ defense have surprisingly been quite good at protecting the rim and they are #1 in the league with the least points allowed in the paint with just 34.4 points per game! The area where the Knicks’ defense struggles is on the perimeter, but there’s an area where the Bucks’ offense isn’t very good as well.
I believe this game will be played in a relatively fast pace, as Milwaukee will want the Knicks to run, but at the end I believe the NY team has a good match up to get an important win in here. As I expect the game to be played in a fast pace with a good number of points being scored, I’ll take both the Knicks and the Over in here.
NBA Pick #4: 705 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 706 Utah Jazz
Rating: 3 units – Single Dime Play
Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder (+3.5) (Play up to +2)
Odds: -105
Detailed Write Up:
Oklahoma City has a great match up in here tonight. Utah is quite inconsistent when it comes to perimeter shooting and so, they need to score badly near the basket. In fact, they were competitive on their last three games of their road trip thanks to that, as they scored 52, 42 and 42 points in the paint.
This will be very hard to replicate against a Thunder interior defense that has been getting better and better over the last few weeks. In fact, on their last game against Houston last Sunday night, they held the Rockets to just 28 points in the paint, while shutting down Howard completely.
On the other hand, Utah’s weakest link on defense is their PG Burke and this is the position where the Thunder currently has their main offensive weapon at the moment with the aggressive Reggie Jackson exploring Burke’s poor defensive skills in here. I believe this is a great spot for Oklahoma City to be really competitive on a road game and so, I’ll take them in here.
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