11-20-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KEVIN PLAYS

Well there isn't much to say about last week. Nevada lost in OT and couldn't cover, and Mississippi State scored a last second touchdown to cover the spread against Alabama. It's been rough goings for me in College Football, but I continue to put in the work to try and finish strong. Two picks tonight.
2 UNIT = Kansas State @ West Virginia - [112] WEST VIRGINIA -2.5 (-104)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.92 units)
2 UNIT = North Carolina @ Duke - [113] NORTH CAROLINA +6 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)
Cheers,
Kevin

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):
2 UNIT "2-Team 6-Point Teaser" = RAIDERS +15.5 and REDSKINS +15.5 (-110)*
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)
*This teaser is available at a couple of sportsbooks (5dimes) that have their lines shaded to prevent against people teasing the Chiefs down below 3. If you can't bet this teaser with Raiders at +14.5 or better I would recommend a 2 unit pick on the Raiders against the spread tonight.
2 UNIT = Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders - OVER 42.5 POINTS (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

LA Clippers at Miami

The Clippers travel to Miami tonight to face a Heat team that is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games versus Western Conference opponents. LA is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20 Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: LA Clippers at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 124.212; Miami 117.588 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 6 1/2; 204 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3 1/2; 198 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3 1/2); Over

Game 703-704: Chicago at Sacramento (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 124.918; Sacramento 123.303 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 202 Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1 1/2; 196 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports CBB:

4-Unit Play. #711 Take SMU (-2.5) over Indiana (8 p.m., Thursday, November 20)
This is another early non-conference road game where we back the away squad. But it makes sense. SMU is in a much better position, not just their overall prospects for this season but also how capable they are early on in the schedule. The Mustangs have three returning starters from their 27-win team in 2013. Add to that two double-digit scorers as new pieces via transfer, one from Xavier and the other from Texas Tech. Indiana lost several of their best players from last season and Yogi Farrell isn't enough to best an SMU squad that is balanced and capable of getting production from so many players. This is a modest number, but it's low because this game is at Indiana. Nonetheless, the better team is favored and they come through with a quality true road victory.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph
Super Pick Kansas St + 2
Trophy Play CHIEFS -7 NFL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS BETTING PROF

CFB

116. Texas State +7* (Mostly +6.5s right now but the system recommends buying the half point up to 7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE (CBB)

5-Unit play. Take Charlotte+3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEHIND THE BETS

1* Boston College +5

2* Drexel +5 (1st Half)

2* SMU -2.5 (-112)

CFB: 4* West Virginia -2.5

NFL: 3* Oakland +7.5 and Under 43.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott spreitzer

3* cbb thursday night main event!

SMU -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EXECUTIVE

200% West Virginia

[golden contender]

GC: NBA Total

Thursday card has the 23-0 College Football Game of the Week, an NFL Play with 5 different league wide system and an NCAAB Perfect angle play. Football combined is ranked #1 on several leader boards. Hump day card cashes big as NCAAB has cashed 7 of first 10 releases. Free NBA Total below.





The free NBA Totals play is on the under in the LA. at Miami game. Rotation numbers 701/7012 at 8:05 eastern. Miami has gone under the total in 7 of their last 8 games, and all 3 vs Non conference teams. This game fits a solid totals system that has played under in 80% of games since 1995. Play the under for home teams with rest like Miami if they covered by 14+ points as a road dog of 5 or more points and are playing an opponent like the Clippers that also covered by 14+ points on the road but did so as a favorite. Wade for Miami is still banged up and may not play. The Clippers played much better last night in a blowout win over Orlando and this one figures to be a lower scoring game. Take the under. On Thursday the NFL Power 5 play takes center stage and has 5 league wide long term power systems. In NCAAF Action we have the 23-0 College Football game of the week and an Undefeated NCAAB Power angle play. Football is ranked #1 on some of the higher end leader boards this season and NCAAB has ht on 7 of 10 to start after last night big winner. Jump on now and Cash out with cutting edge data that wont be seen anywhere else. For the Free Play take the Heat and Clippers to play under the total. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

50 Dimes - 2 Team 6 1/2 point teaser on the Kansas City Chiefs and the Kansas State Wildcats

Free play - OVER the posted total in the North Carolina/Duke game

Lang has now won 8 out of his last 10 paid plays, going up 574 dimes. So far in this years regular NFL season, Lang is up 601 dimes.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO (CBB)

1-Unit Play. Take #705 Detroit (+18.5) over Michigan (6 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

1-Unit Play. Take #707 Florida Atlantic (+16.5) over Harvard (8 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

1-Unit Play. Take #712 Indiana (+3) over SMU (8 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

1-Unit Play. Take #730 Miami (-9.5) over Drexel (3 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

3-Unit Play. Take #731 Penn State (-3) over Charlotte (5:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

2-Unit Play. Take #734 South Carolina (-13) over Cornell (8 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

7-Unit Play. Take #735 **Texas (-4.5) over Iowa (7 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 149.0 – Texas vs. Iowa (7 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

4-Unit Play. Take #738 California (+5) over Syracuse (9:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 131.0 – Syracuse vs. California (9:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

2-Unit Play. Take #743 UC-Davis (+2.5) over Eastern Illinois (8 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

1-Unit Play. Take #742 Northern Illinois (-8) over Idaho (9 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #716 Alabama (-7) over Southern Miss (9 p.m.) AND Take #740 St. Peter’s (-8.5) over Niagara (7 p.m.)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike O'Connor


Here is the analysis of the games I released earlier. I may have another round of plays tomorrow after getting a look at the injury report and a weather update so please check back then.

Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***OAKLAND (+7.5 -120) 22 Kansas City 20

Thu Nov-20-2014 at 05:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 110 Over/Under 42.5

This is a good spot for the Raiders as they get the visiting Chiefs on a short week in between high profile games. Kansas City was fortunate to come away with a close 24-20 win last week at home against the Seahawks in a hard fought game against the Super Bowl champs and have a showdown at the top of the division at home against the Broncos in primetime next Sunday night. This is a soft spot in their schedule and facing an 0-10 team, it’s going to be hard to get motivated on a short travel week. On the other side, the Raiders will be fired up to get the spotlight at home and should bring an inspired effort in a game that they could win. Kansas City has been an about average team from the line of scrimmage offensively, generating 329 total yards at 5.4 yppl against teams that allow 330 yards at 5.3 yppl but have converted third downs at a 48% rate (#3 ranking) and have been good in the red zone (69.7% for a #3 ranking). On the other side, the Raiders have a #30 ranking in offensive third down conversions. Some regression to the mean is possible in both of those stats and if that is the case in this game, the Raiders could surprise. Oakland is last in the league as well with a -12 turnover differential but have had negative fumble luck while the Chiefs have had slightly positive fumble luck. As a result, Oakland qualifies in a turnover based 498-409-15 situation. They also qualify in a 53-21-4 home dog situation as well as a 52-21 situation that plays on winless teams in the back half of the season. With a good spot and solid systems on their side, I’ll take the Raiders +7.5 -120 for 3-stars to +7 and for 2-stars at down to +6.
***Cleveland (+3.5 -125) 27 Atlanta 21

Sun Nov-23-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 251 Over/Under 46.5

The Browns didn’t play well last week in their 7-23 loss at home against the Texans but they were coming off of a big divisional statement win in Cincinnati against their in-state rivals and were flat as a result. The same thing happened earlier this season after they clobbered the Steelers in Week 6 (31-10) then lost as a favorite the following week to the previously winless Jaguars (6-24). Just as they bounced back the week after that game for a ten point win against the Raiders (24-14), I expect that they’ll bounce back in this spot as well. Cleveland is right in the thick of it in the AFC North with a 6-4 record and they know that they can’t afford to slip up here. They should be able to move the ball well against a Falcons defense that has not been good this season in allowing 404 total yards at 6.1 yppl to teams that average 343 yards at 5.5 yppl. Cleveland should get a boost from the return of WR Josh Gordon, who is coming off his ten game suspension to start the season. Last year, Gordon led the NFL with 1646 receiving yards on 87 receptions for an 18.9 yard average with nine touchdowns without a competent quarterback. His return, coupled with the return last week of 2014 Browns leading receiver Andrew Hawkins, should provide the Browns passing offense with a spark. They’ll face the NFL’s worst pass defense that has allowed 280 yards at 7.8 yps to teams that gain 239 yards at 6.3 yps on average and provide a great matchup for the Cleveland passing offense.

On the other side, the Browns defend the pass well (allowing 229 yards at 6.0 yps to teams that gain 243 yards at 6.5 yps) and should be able to minimize the Falcons strength, which is their passing offense. Atlanta is coming off of two divisional wins and find themselves in first place in the bad NFC South with a 4-6 record and any may not have their best in this non-conference game. The Browns benefit from a negative 53-113-3 statistical match-up situation that plays against Atlanta as well as a 103-53-4 situation that plays on dogs that lost big as a favorite last week. My model predicts a 2.0 point Browns victory in this one, so with what appears to be a good spot, with good situations and some line value, I’ll take the Browns +3.5 (-125) for 3-stars down to +3 -115 and for 2-stars at up to +3 -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. : Bob


Below is the analysis of the Best Bet on Toledo tonight and on Arkansas State tomorrow night. I added a Strong Opinion on the Toledo-Bowling Green Over (54).

The other Best Bets for Saturday are

(128) ***Tennessee (-3) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars up to -6
(148) **Purdue (+1 ½) 2-Stars at -1 or better
(152) **East Carolina (-17) 2-Stars at -17 or less, 1-Star up to -19.5
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob



Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
**TOLEDO (-6) 38 Bowling Green 24

Wed Nov-19-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 108 Over/Under 54.0

I’ll assume that starting quarterback Logan Woodside will not play this week for Toledo and that may actually be a good thing. When I wrote up last week’s opinion on Toledo against Northern Illinois I mentioned that I wasn’t impressed with backup quarterback Michael Julian and that I wouldn’t be surprised if WR Dwight Macon came in at quarterback if Julian was ineffective. Julian was ineffective but Macon didn’t line up behind center until Julian suffered a concussion and after Woodside tried to play a series with his injured leg. Macon took over and completed 8 of 11 passes for 130 yards on 13 pass plays (including 2 sacks) and ran for 107 yards on 16 runs to nearly lead the Rockets to a comeback win before falling 3 points short. Macon’s good play wasn’t that surprising to me given he was recruited to play quarterback and was switched to wide receiver to get his talent on the field in an era when the Rockets had two very good starting quarterbacks in Terrance Owens and Austin Dantin. Macon was actually rated higher as a quarterback coming out of high school than any of the Toledo quarterbacks except Alabama transfer Phillip Ely, who suffered a season ending injury in week 2. It appears to me as if the line has been significantly adjusted for Toledo being down to their 4th string quarterback but I actually think the position has been upgraded with Macon, who actually knows the offense better than any of the quarterbacks, having been in the system longer than anyone on the team, and adds a running element that the other quarterbacks didn’t show. I’m not going to adjust Toledo’s offensive rating components upward, even though I feel it’s warranted based on Macon’s talent and what he showed last week, but I’m certainly not going to lower the Rockets’ offensive ratings. The overall offensive projection does end up being lower because Toledo will run the ball more with Macon at quarterback, which plays into the strength of a Bowling Green defense that is horrible defending the pass (6.7 yards per pass play allowed despite facing quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.5 yppp against an average defense) but the math still projects Toledo to gain 531 yards at 6.6 yards per play in this game which is more than reasonable given that Toledo has averaged 500 total yards at 6.3 yppl this season (against teams that are 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively) and the Bowling Green’s defense is allowing 508 yards per game and are rated at 0.5 yppl worse than average even after dampening the affect of the 648 rushing yards at 11.5 yprp that they allowed to Wisconsin. I did take into account that Toledo would run the ball a lot more than normal, which would lower the total number of plays in this game, but Bowling Green runs their offense at a very fast pace and Toledo is still projected to run 80 plays because they’ll have more possessions to work with.

Bowling Green’s offense looks pretty good when you look at total yards (457) and points (32.6 per game) but the Falcons run a lot of plays with their no huddle offense, which disguises the fact that they are actually not good offensively. The Falcons have averaged 5.7 yards per play despite facing teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average attack and my model projects 407 yards at 5.4 yppl on the road against a Toledo defense that is just as bad (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense).

Toledo is projected to outgain Bowling Green by 124 total yards and predicts a 15 point win by the Rockets (with 64 ½ total points). The projection also is based on normal weather and the weather for this game is expected to be cold and windy with some snow, which actually could help Toledo if it gets really windy (since Bowling Green is more of a passing team that would be negative affected by the wind). Regardless of which side the weather may favor (maybe neither) it is likely to result in fewer points than my model predicts, but I still think the total has been adjusted too much for the weather and for Toledo having a 4th string quarterback (who I think is at least as good as the other Rockets’ quarterbacks). The math model gives Toledo a 56.2% chance to cover based on the historical performance of the model and I’ll take Toledo in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less. I will also consider the Over (54) a Strong Opinion at 55 points or less.
**Arkansas State (-5) 35 TEXAS STATE 22

Thu Nov-20-2014 at 06:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 115 Over/Under 58.5

Arkansas State played their worst game of the season last week in a 32-37 upset loss to Appalachian State but the Red Wolves haven’t lost consecutive games to the spread since last October and last week’s result has supplied us with added line value tonight. Texas State has played relatively well lately but the Bobcats haven’t proven good enough to beat a team like Arkansas State. In fact, all 5 of Texas State’s victories this season have been against teams that are at least 12 points worse than an average FBS team (Ark Pine Bluff, Tulsa, Idaho, UL Monroe and New Mexico State) and the Bobcats are equally bad on both sides of the football – rating at 0.8 yards per play worse than average on offense (5.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team) and 0.7 yppl worse than average defensively (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Arkansas State has been 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively for the season but they played two games without star RB Michael Gordon (844 yards at 7.3 ypr) and top WR J.D. McKissic missed nearly all of the last 3 games, which hurt the pass attack. Quarterback Fredi Knighten averaged just 5.1 yards per pass play the last two games without his security blanket (he’s completed 83% of his passes intended for McKissic this season) after averaging 7.0 yppp in the previous 6 games this season against worse than average pass defenses with McKissic playing. McKissic is back this week, which should help the pass attack and get the 3rd down conversion rate back up and Gordon should post big rushing numbers against a Texas State defense that has allowed an average of 239 rushing yards at 5.5 yards per rushing play in 9 games against FBS opponents that would combine to average just 4.8 yprp against an average team. The Bobcats are also poor defending the pass (6.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.5 yppp against an average team), so Knighten could go back to his 7.0-plus yppp level with McKissic back. My math model projects 521 yards at 6.3 yppp for Arkansas State in this game, which should get them over their average of 33.8 points (on 449 average total yards).

Texas State’s sub-par offense is projected to tally just 379 total yards at 5.0 yppl against a solid Arkansas State defense that’s allowed just 5.3 yards per play this season to a collection of opponents that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. The Red Wolves have a good chance to win by 7 points or more with a projected 142 yards advantage and a slight edge in projected turnovers (Knighten has thrown just 4 interceptions all season). My math model calls for a play on the Red Wolves and I’ll take Arkansas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.