11-26-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

20 Dimes - UCLA Bruins +3.5 (buy the half point if its +3) at home over the Oklahoma Sooners in NCAA Basketball, 2:30 PM EST

Free play - San Diego State + 4 1/2 over Arizona in college hoops

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JAMES JONES

NCAAB-Oklahoma University(-2.5)-110…(2*)

NCAAB-Duke University(-40)-112…(1*)

NCAAB-Minnesota University(+1)-122…(1*)

NBA-Sacramento Kings(+5)-105…(1*)

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Dr. Bob:

I have released 3 Best Bets far. I have no Best Bet releases for Wednesday. The next release will be on Friday morning if I add any Saturday games (there are a few I still need to look into further). I will send out a Friday Strong Opinion or two later today.

(313) **LSU (-2.5 at -115) 2-Stars at -3 or less and for 1-Star up to -4.
(320) ***Western Michigan (-7) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars up to -9.5, 1-Star at -10
(324) ***Marshall (-21) 3-Stars at -23 ½ or less, 2-Stars at -24
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob



Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.


**Louisiana State (-2 ½ at -115) 30 TEXAS A&M 20

Thu Nov-27-2014 at 04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 313 Over/Under 49.5

In a game with two mediocre quarterbacks I’m siding with the team that is likely to run the ball better and has a much better defense. LSU has lost consecutive games to Alabama (13-20 in OT) and Arkansas (0-17) and the Tigers have averaged only 8 points in their last 3 games (they beat Ole’ Miss 10-7) against 3 teams that defend the run very well (all 3 rank in my top 11 in compensated run defense). LSU also struggled in a 7-41 loss at Auburn, who ranks 19 in run defense. LSU can’t sustain drives if they can’t run the ball because quarterback Anthony Jennings has completed only 48% of his passes this season. When the Tigers can’t run they rely solely on the occasional big pass play (Jennings averages 14.7 yards per completion, which is very high) and good defensive teams have not allowed those big plays. Running the ball should not be a problem for LSU today, as Texas A&M ranks 100th in my compensated run defense ratings, having allowed 5.8 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average defense. The run defense has been even worse since the Aggies were given the task of defending SEC rushing attacks, as they have allowed an average of 291 rushing yards at 6.4 yprp to the 6 SEC teams they’ve faced since late September. LSU’s rushing attack is better than average but not as dominating as some of the teams that the Aggies have faced, but the Tigers will still have good success on the ground and that makes it easier to hit on big pass plays using play action. LSU has only faced 3 worse than average run defenses all season (excluding FCS team Sam Houston State) and the Tigers averaged 309 ground yards at 6.2 yprp in those games against UL Monroe, New Mexico State, and Kentucky, whose combined run defense rating is only 0.1 yprp worse than A&M’s run defense rating. Texas A&M’s defense is very similar statistically to the Kentucky defense that the Tigers averaged 6.6 yards per play and scored 41 points against and while it’s not likely that they’ll reach those big numbers the Tigers should score plenty of points in this game.

Texas A&M’s coaching staff has decided to stick with freshman Kyle Allen, who became the starter when Kenny Hill was suspended for a couple of games. Allen had a great game against Auburn a few weeks ago but he’s still only averaged 6.1 yards on 138 pass plays against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback (weighted by how many pass plays he had against each opponent, of course). Allen is a significant downgrade from Hill and the A&M offense that was 1.4 yards per play better than average in Hill’s 6 starts against FBS opponents (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) has been just 0.5 yppl better than average in Allen’s 3 starts (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl). That level of offense is not going to work against an LSU defense that has been 1.2 yppl better than average for the season (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defense) and has held their last 4 opponents to just 10 points per game (in regulation) and only 4.1 yppl. Those opponents were Arkansas, Alabama, Ole’ Miss and Kentucky, who collectively would average 6.2 yppl against an average defensive team, so the Tigers have taken their defense to another level recently and I don’t see Allen having any success against a dominating Tigers’ pass defense. LSU’s run defense had some issues earlier this season but the last 4 opponents have averaged only 3.6 yards per rushing play and the Tigers should slow down A&M’s rushing attack, which hasn’t been as good since Allen took over at quarterback (since teams don’t fear the pass as much and concentrate more on stopping the run). Texas A&M is not good enough with Allen at quarterback to consistently move the ball against a Tigers’ defense that is playing at a dominating level. However, using LSU’s defensive numbers for the entire season would project A&M to get to 20 points in this game.


LSU is much more likely to move the ball because they’ll be able to run with great success and the Tigers apply to an 89-33-4 ATS statistical match up indicator that plays on run-heavy offensive teams that are a small favorite or dog to a team that is worse than average defending the run. I’ll take LSU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 1-Star up to -4.


***WESTERN MICHIGAN (-7) 37 Northern Illinois 21

Fri Nov-28-2014 at 08:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 320 Over/Under 58.0

Western Michigan failed to cover the spread in their opener by 2 points but the Broncos have gone a perfect 10-0 ATS since then and they’re still underrated. Actually, this game is a combination of Western Michigan still being underrated and Northern Illinois being overrated. Northern Illinois has averaged 425 yards at 5.9 yards per play and they’ve allowed 419 yards at 5.7 yppl, which are actually bad numbers when you take into account that the Huskies have faced teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl on offense while allowing 6.0 yppl against an average FBS opponent. So, Northern Illinois is 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively. Overall, the Huskies line of scrimmage rating, which is a combination of total yards and yards per play adjusted for schedule strength, is 8.2 points worse than an average FBS team. NIU has faced an FBS schedule that is 9.0 points easier than average and they’ve only outscored those 10 opponents by an average of 1.5 points per game, which is 7.5 points worse than average on a compensated points scale. Either way you look at it the Huskies are a well below average team.

Western Michigan, meanwhile, is a bit better than average on a national scale. The Broncos have averaged 7.1 yards per play and allowed 5.4 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.1 yppl and allow 6.2 yppl to an average FBS team. So, Western Michigan is 0.9 yppl better than average offensively and just 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively. From a points perspective the Broncos have outscored their opponents by an average of 12.6 points while facing a schedule that is 11.5 points easier than average, so they’ve been 1.1 points better than average in compensated points while rating at 1.4 points better than average from the line of scrimmage.

It’s clear that Western Michigan is a much better team from the line of scrimmage and the Broncos’ offense should surpass their average of 35.8 points per game given that they’re at home and facing a defense that is a bit worse than the average defense they’ve faced this season. Northern Illinois isn’t likely to keep up with an offense that has averaged a modest 28 points per game against teams that are a bit worse defensively that Western Michigan. My math model projects 492 yards at 7.3 yards per play for the Broncos while the Huskies are projected to gain a modest 384 yards at 5.7 yppl. NIU does have a slight advantage in projected turnovers (0.3 points worth) but Western Michigan has a 1.0 point edge in special teams and the Broncos should be favored by more than 10 points in this game. In addition to the line value Western Michigan also applies to a number of good situations, including an 85-29-1 ATS late season home momentum situation, while Northern Illinois applies to a 39-105-1 ATS road underdog situation. I’ll take Western Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -9 ½ points (1-Star at -10).


***MARSHALL (-21) 54 Western Kentucky 23

Fri Nov-28-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 324 Over/Under 74.0

Marshall’s habit of covering big numbers was temporarily interrupted last week in a deceiving 23-18 win as an 18 point favorite at UAB, but the Thundering Herd should return to business as usual at home against a defensively inept Western Kentucky team whose high flying offense hasn’t proven that it can move the ball against a good defensive team. Last week’s narrow 5 point win over UAB looks a lot closer on the scoreboard than it actually was, as Marshall outgained the Blazers 518 yards at 7.0 yards per play to 346 yards at 4.2 yppl and their overall line of scrimmage rating in that game was actually a bit higher than their season average. In other words, there is nothing wrong with the Marshall machine that is a perfect 11-0 straight up this season and is 12-3-1 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite of 14 points or more (8-1-1 ATS at home).

The part of this game that is pretty easy to handicap is how Marshall’s well-balanced and potent attack will score on nearly every possession against a Western Kentucky defense that ranks 120th in my compensated defensive ratings. The Hilltoppers have allowed an average of 36.8 points on 486 yards per game at 6.4 yards per play despite facing a schedule of worse than average offensive teams that would combine to average only 25.7 points and 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Western Kentucky hasn’t faced a team nearly as good as Marshall’s offense but the Hilltoppers have faced 5 mediocre or better than average offensive teams and they gave up 50 points or more to 3 of them (Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, and Louisiana Tech) and 42 points to Illinois. Three of those teams fall into the mediocre offensive category (and Old Dominion is better than average offensively) and today they face an elite offensive team that has averaged 45 points and 548 yards per game at 7.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack). Western Kentucky’s defense is 0.7 yppl worse than the average defensive rating of the teams that Marshall has averaged those 45 points against and my math model is projecting 657 total yards and 54 points for the Thundering Herd in this game. That may sound unrealistic but Marshall’s top 5 offensive games have averaged 642 total yards and they’ve topped 700 total yards twice – and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they did it again today.

While it’s pretty obvious to expect Marshall to score a lot of points, the real question is how many points Western Kentucky’s good offense can score – and more specifically if they can score enough to stay within 3 or 4 touchdowns. The Hilltoppers do have an excellent offense that has averaged 41.9 points on 508 yards at 6.8 yards per play while facing teams that would combine to allow 34.5 points and 6.1 yppl to an average offensive team. Marshall’s defense, however, is just as good as the Herd have yielded only 4.4 yppl to a schedule of FBS opponents that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. What I like about Marshall’s defense is that they played their best against the best offensive team that they’ve faced so far – holding Old Dominion’s better than average attack to just 14 points on 239 yards and 3.6 yppl. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, has faced only one good defensive team all season (Louisiana Tech) and the Hilltoppers were held to 10 points on 297 yards at 4.1 yppl in that game by the Bulldogs (a 59-10 Best Bet win). That’s just one game but it’s certainly an indication that Western Kentucky’s offense may be relatively worse against a good defensive team while Marshall’s defense has been relatively better against the better offensive teams that they’ve faced (perhaps because they play with more focus when challenged). The math model projects 405 yards at 5.3 yppl for Western Kentucky, which equates to 23 points.

The projected stats would predict a 31 point win for Marshall and another method I use that predicts what the true line should be (it’s a combination of the box score projected margin and the actual line and is based on the historical performance of my model) comes up with a true line of 26 points. There is certainly line value favoring Marshall and the Thundering Herd will play with plenty of focus and emotion at home as they attempt to close out a perfect regular season. Marshall applies to a 122-60-3 ATS late season angle that plays on home favorites with 1 or fewer losses and unbeaten (7-0 or better) conference home favorites of 21 points or more are 51-23-1 ATS. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, applies to a 22-58 ATS last game double-digit underdog angle. The combination of line value and supporting situations make this game a really good play and I’ll take Marshall in a 3-Star Best Bet at -23 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -24 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER (CBB)

3* Evansville -2

3* St. Johns +1

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Philly Godfather


North Dakota ML (CBB)

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Larry Ness
Daytime Dominator UMass

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Cleveland Insider


CBB
Butler/UNC UNDER 139

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INDIAN COWBOY (CBB)

3* 758 Georgetown -1

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Robert ferringo (cbb)

728: 2*
745: 1*
748: 2*
731: 1*
754: 2*
758: 2*
766: 2*
775: 1*
***** 781: 7**
783: 2*
778: 1*
770: 2*
800: 1*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Toronto at Atlanta

The Raptors head to Atlanta tonight to face the Hawks (5-1 SU at home) and come into the contest with a 15-7 ATS record in their last 22 road games against a team with a winning home record. Toronto is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Raptors favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 26 Time Posted: 11:00 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: Brooklyn at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 115.280; Philadelphia 109.165 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 6; 192 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 8 1/2; 197 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+8 1/2); Under

Game 703-704: Washington at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 117.087; Cleveland 125.616 Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 8 1/2; 195 Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 199 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6 1/2); Under

Game 705-706: Golden State at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 124.692; Orlando 118.226 Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 6 1/2; 207 Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 9; 203 Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+9); Over

Game 707-708: Portland at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 124.261; Charlotte 115.853 Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 8 1/2; 199 Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 6; 195 Dunkel Pick: Portland (-6); Over

Game 709-710: LA Clippers at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 121.058; Detroit 117.018 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 4; 192 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8; 198 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+8); Under

Game 711-712: Toronto at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 126.295; Atlanta 120.471 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 6; 200 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 3; 204 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3); Under

Game 713-714: New York at Dallas (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 118.312; Dallas 128.886 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 10 1/2; 205 Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 12 1/2; 199 Dunkel Pick: New York (+10 1/2); Over

Game 715-716: Milwaukee at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 116.266; Minnesota 113.019 Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3; 209 Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1; 203 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-1); Over

Game 717-718: Sacramento at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 120.599; Houston 126.690 Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 6; 187 Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 4 1/2; 192 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4 1/2); Under

Game 719-720: Utah at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Utah 114.417; Oklahoma City 115.249 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1; 176 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4 1/2; 183 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Utah (+4 1/2); Under

Game 721-722: Indiana at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 117.387; San Antonio 131.530 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 14; 220 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 723-724: Denver at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 118.528; Phoenix 128.018 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 218 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6 1/2; 215 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-6 1/2); Over

Game 725-726: Memphis at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 125.701; LA Lakers 117.240 Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 8 1/2; 196 Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 6 1/2; 202 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-6 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Washington at NY Islanders

The Capitals head to New York tonight where they are 9-2 in their last 11 contests versus the Islanders. Washington is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+130). Here are all of today's NHL picks.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 26 Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Washington at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.641; NY Islander 11.583 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-150); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+130); Over

Game 53-54: Winnipeg at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 8.799; Buffalo 10.213 Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-155); 5 Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+135); Over

Game 55-56: Philadelphia at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.994; Detroit 12.541 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-175); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-175); Under

Game 57-58: Toronto at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 13.449; Pittsburgh 12.515 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-205); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+175); Under

Game 59-60: Carolina at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 9.537; Florida 10.896 Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-130); 5 Dunkel Pick: Florida (-130); Over

Game 61-62: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 13.647; Tampa Bay 12.776 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-150); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+130); Over

Game 63-64: Los Angeles at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.778; Minnesota 12.767 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-140); 5 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-140); Over

Game 65-66: Chicago at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.100; Colorado 9.161 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-160); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-160); Over

Game 67-68: Calgary at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 8.792; San Jose 12.161 Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 3 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-185); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-185); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE DAVIS (CBB)

7-Unit play. Take Gonzaga -14.5

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Paul Leiner

2000* unc -10

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Chris Torissi
5* Georgia +12.5 (CBB)
4* San Diego State +5 (CBB)
4* Phoenix Suns -8 (NBA)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

The Sharps are going to be at the Yum tonight as the Cards host the Cleveland State Vikings. These Cards are playing at a really high level right now and all you need to know is the fact that Louisville just beat Savannah St. by 51 points, featuring a halftime score of 41-7! That same Savannah St. team beat this Cleveland St. team 87-83. That's good enough for us! The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - LOUISVILLE (-23) OVER CLEVELAND ST