11-27-14

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Harry Bondi

3 San Fran
3 TCU

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WAYNE ROOT



MILLIONAIRES - Detroit Lions

NO LIMIT CLUB - Dallas Cowboys



PERFECT PLAY - Texas

Texas seems to have settled in from their internal problems and are playing rugged, tuff and well discipline football.
The Longhorns are 6-5 on the season and 4th in the Big 12. Their ability to keep up with opponents has put them in the discussion every time they take the field.

The Longhorns average 212 passing yards per game and 154 rushing yards per game. While Texas only scores 24 points per game every time out they have proven themselves to be stout on the defensive side of the ball. Slow, low scoring games sort of set the mark for what to expect out of a Texas match.


The Longhorns pulled upset 30-7 at TCU last year and look to do so again. TCU had their problems with Kansas and game film on this years team should help stop a few drives and lower the scoring thus bringing in the pointspread. TCU's lack of defense is well known so point for point is realistic given the strength of the Longhorns defense. This will be a very close contest. TAKE TEXAS




INNER CIRCLE - 49ers

The Seahawks did themselves "proud" last week as they were successful in their "must-win" game with division foe, Arizona. Seattle is 7-4, which has helped them stay in the running in the NFC West. However, they have only been 2-3 during the games they've played on the road. They are going to be matched up against the San Francisco 49ers in their next meeting. This could be a pivotal contest that will put either team in the driver's seat for their divisional title.
San Francisco has gone 7-4 up until this point, matching Seattle's record. The 49ers have gone 3-2 at home, but this could be the opportunity that they have been waiting for this season.


The 49ers continue to get a lot of production out of Frank Gore as their running back. The addition of Anquan Boldin as a receiver has added some variety for their offensive picture. The secondary of Seattle will be an important test to see if the 49ers can make the playoffs.
Home field advantage is the difference in this all important NFC West rivalry game. San Francisco gets a little revenge from close playoff loss that still leaves a bad taste in their mouths. Seattle inability to get big passing chunks this year has made their offense much more stagnate. TAKE SAN FRANCISCO

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Sixth Sense

Eagles / Cowboys Over 55

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SB PROFESSOR

NFL
306. Detroit Lions -7*
307. Philadelphia Eagles +3*


NCAAF
314. Texas A&M +3*


Rest of Games
312. Texas +7

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Dr Bob

**Louisiana State (-2 ½ at -115) 30 TEXAS A&M 20

Thu Nov-27-2014 at 04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 313 Over/Under 49.5

In a game with two mediocre quarterbacks I’m siding with the team that is likely to run the ball better and has a much better defense. LSU has lost consecutive games to Alabama (13-20 in OT) and Arkansas (0-17) and the Tigers have averaged only 8 points in their last 3 games (they beat Ole’ Miss 10-7) against 3 teams that defend the run very well (all 3 rank in my top 11 in compensated run defense). LSU also struggled in a 7-41 loss at Auburn, who ranks 19 in run defense. LSU can’t sustain drives if they can’t run the ball because quarterback Anthony Jennings has completed only 48% of his passes this season. When the Tigers can’t run they rely solely on the occasional big pass play (Jennings averages 14.7 yards per completion, which is very high) and good defensive teams have not allowed those big plays. Running the ball should not be a problem for LSU today, as Texas A&M ranks 100th in my compensated run defense ratings, having allowed 5.8 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average defense. The run defense has been even worse since the Aggies were given the task of defending SEC rushing attacks, as they have allowed an average of 291 rushing yards at 6.4 yprp to the 6 SEC teams they’ve faced since late September. LSU’s rushing attack is better than average but not as dominating as some of the teams that the Aggies have faced, but the Tigers will still have good success on the ground and that makes it easier to hit on big pass plays using play action. LSU has only faced 3 worse than average run defenses all season (excluding FCS team Sam Houston State) and the Tigers averaged 309 ground yards at 6.2 yprp in those games against UL Monroe, New Mexico State, and Kentucky, whose combined run defense rating is only 0.1 yprp worse than A&M’s run defense rating. Texas A&M’s defense is very similar statistically to the Kentucky defense that the Tigers averaged 6.6 yards per play and scored 41 points against and while it’s not likely that they’ll reach those big numbers the Tigers should score plenty of points in this game.

Texas A&M’s coaching staff has decided to stick with freshman Kyle Allen, who became the starter when Kenny Hill was suspended for a couple of games. Allen had a great game against Auburn a few weeks ago but he’s still only averaged 6.1 yards on 138 pass plays against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback (weighted by how many pass plays he had against each opponent, of course). Allen is a significant downgrade from Hill and the A&M offense that was 1.4 yards per play better than average in Hill’s 6 starts against FBS opponents (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) has been just 0.5 yppl better than average in Allen’s 3 starts (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl). That level of offense is not going to work against an LSU defense that has been 1.2 yppl better than average for the season (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defense) and has held their last 4 opponents to just 10 points per game (in regulation) and only 4.1 yppl. Those opponents were Arkansas, Alabama, Ole’ Miss and Kentucky, who collectively would average 6.2 yppl against an average defensive team, so the Tigers have taken their defense to another level recently and I don’t see Allen having any success against a dominating Tigers’ pass defense. LSU’s run defense had some issues earlier this season but the last 4 opponents have averaged only 3.6 yards per rushing play and the Tigers should slow down A&M’s rushing attack, which hasn’t been as good since Allen took over at quarterback (since teams don’t fear the pass as much and concentrate more on stopping the run). Texas A&M is not good enough with Allen at quarterback to consistently move the ball against a Tigers’ defense that is playing at a dominating level. However, using LSU’s defensive numbers for the entire season would project A&M to get to 20 points in this game.


LSU is much more likely to move the ball because they’ll be able to run with great success and the Tigers apply to an 89-33-4 ATS statistical match up indicator that plays on run-heavy offensive teams that are a small favorite or dog to a team that is worse than average defending the run. I’ll take LSU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 1-Star up to -4.

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Freddy Wills


Dal -3 5.5*

Texas + 7 3.3*

LSU - 2.5 5.5*

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Northcoast

3* San Francisco -1 Seattle NBC 8:30 pm

COLLEGE :
2* UNDER 55.5/56 TCU/Texas FoxSports 1 7:30 pm

Top Opinions - Rank for Top & Reg opinions are combined NFL & College:
1. LSU -3 Texas A&M Turkey-day CFB Marquee Espn 7:30 pm
2. Detroit -7 Chicago Turkey-day NFL Marquee CBS 12:30 pm
3. UNDER 47 Detroit/ Chicago CBS 12:30 pm
4. Texas +7 TCU Fox1 7:30 pm

Reg Opinions:
5. UNDER 39.5 Seattle/San Francisco NBC 8:30 pm
6. Dallas -3 Philadelphia FOX 4:30 pm

Had to Pick’em:
7. UNDER 51 LSU/Texas A&M Espn 7:30 pm
8. OVER 54.5 Dallas/ Philadelphia FOX 4:30 pm

COLLEGE PPH’s:
College Marquees - Released Saturday
Early Bird - (Kansas St -27)
Big 10 - Illinois / Pac 12 - UCLA
ACC - Georgia Tech / SEC - Florida
AAC - Tulsa / CUSA - North Texas
Big 12 - (pass) / Indep - USC / MW - Air Force
MAC - N Illinois / SBC-Ind - Troy
TV Side / TV Total - Released Saturday
Power Plays 4.5H‘s - UCLA, Colorado
Midweek Touchdown Club:
Replaces the Economy Club
CFB NFL
#1 - UTEP -4 #1 - Miami -6 (Monday)
#2 - Illinois +8.5 #2 - UNDER 43 Tenn/Houston
#3 - USC -7
#4 - Fresno St -11
#5 - Wake Forest +19.5

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Trev Rogers

Chicago Bears +7

NCAAF
Texas Longhorns +7

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VegasButcher (NFL)

UNDER 47.5 CHI/DET

This is the very early Thursday game with a 12:30 EST start time. It's bad enough that they're playing on Thursday, but the fact that it's so early is another factor in the favor of a low scoring game. Last week Chicago had a 3.6 YPP average, against a terrible Bucs defense while playing at home. They only put up 21 points in the game due to terrible TO's in their own half by Tampa in the 2nd half. This team really struggled offensively. Now they go on the road, on a short week, and facing the #1 ranked Lions defense. Forte and the run game will be shut-down and it will probably be up to Cutler to move the chains. I expect a very vanilla gameplan for Chicago, as you just can't afford to let Cutler lose the game for you. As far as Detroit is concerned, they've failed to score a TD in two straight games now. This offense is very inefficient and highly reliant on two players: Tate and Johnson. Chicago doesn't have the corners to shut those guys down, but I'd expect consistent help over the top in this one. Regardless, points will be hard to come by in this game. My model has this one at 42 total points so there's a lot of value on the UNDER.

UNDER 39.5 SEA/SF



Two elite defenses and two offenses that have been pretty inefficient lately. Seattle without Harvin doesn't have many playmakers on the perimeter, and Lynch is dealing with a back injury. San Fran has been very inefficient all season long with Gore, Boldin, and Davis showing their age while Crabtree regressing greatly. I think both defenses will have a lot of success in this game. Remember, these rivals know each other very well, they are well equipped to stop the read-option that each team has a lot of success with typically, and both are treating this like a playoff game. My model has this one at 39 points, and though there isn't much pure 'value' per say, I believe we'll see a very low scoring game in this one.

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Chase Diamond

20* NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR

49ers (pk)

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King Creole


Double-Dime Bet
UNDER 48.0 Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
*Optimum O/U line : 48 or more points

Double-Dime Bet
OVER 54.5 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALALS COWBOYS
*Optimum O/U line: 55 or less points



Dime Bet
UNDER 40.0 Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
*Optimum O/U line: 40 or more points

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Doc's Sports


4 Unit Play. #310/#314 Take San Francisco 49ers -1 over Seattle Seahawks (Thursday 8:30 pm NBC)

The Seahawks got a must-win last week in Seattle against Arizona, but they will find things much more difficult this week against San Francisco in the Bay Area. San Francisco has won 5 straight home games against Seattle, and they should be able to take advantage of a suspect offensive line that Seattle has. If Seattle cannot run the football they will have trouble moving it against San Francisco, and I expect Colin Kaepernick to have a break-out game. San Francisco is 26-9 ATS (3 pushes) in their last 38 games following an ATS loss in their previous outing. Seattle is not the same team as they were one year ago, and we will continue to take advantage of these short numbers.

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Football Crusher

Play of the Day
Chicago Bears +7 over Detroit Lions

Rest of the Plays
Seattle Seahawks +107 over SF 49ers
Dallas Cowboys + Philadelphia Eagles OVER 55.5

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Hockey Crusher

Play of the Day
Edmonton Oilers +1.5 over Nashville

Rest of the Plays
Edmonton Oilers + Nashville Predators OVER 5