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dime bet – 311 TCU -6.5 (-110) vs 312 Texas
Analysis:
TCU (-6.5-) at Texas 7:30 ET FOX1
TCU (-6.5)
Interesting to note that TCU has moved into the schedule spot once occupied by Texas A&M in what has long been a battle between the Longhorns and Aggies on Thanksgiving when they shared a conference affiliation. It is a clear indicator of the respect accorded to this TCU program, which has in recent years, under the guidance of 14th year HC Patterson, moved upward in the college football landscape hierarchy through the ranks of the WAC, to the Mountain West till their final ascension to the Big 12. There they have resided for the previous 2 years with mediocre results of 11-14 SU, 8-15 ATS. While the Horned Frogs have been ascending up the ladder of CFB respect, the Longhorns have headed opposite direction, under the guidance of former HC Brown. In fact entering this season, Texas was on a not so impressive 4 year slide of 30-21 SU and 22-29 ATS.
This year, with 15 RS for 1st year HC Strong, improvement was expected. As a defense first coach, Strong made his way through the ranks as Asst. Coach at Florida to the head position at Louisville, where the Cardinals soared to national recognition. Much was expected upon his arrival. A 3-5 SU ATS beginning left the Longhorn faithful wary. Since that beginning, however, the Longhorns have turned it around by going 3-0 SU ATS, albeit vs. TTRR, WVU and Oklahoma St. In their previous contest, a 28-7 win vs. the Cowboys, Texas had a 430-192 yardage edge. The Longhorn faithful are of the belief this has offered a buy sign for the program. This bureau is not convinced! For, when stepping up in class against the elite of the Big 12, the Longhorns were smacked down 23-0 by Kansas St. and 28-7 by Baylor. Much the same could be in store this Thanksgiving evening in Austin.
The coming out party for TCU has resulted in a 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS YTD record, including 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in the Big 12. In those games, they have covered the number by a net 113 points. It is a main reason why this line has swung 10-14 points from where it would have been opening week. Yet, the adjustment is well deserved. Following a 41-20 high-profile win vs. Kansas St. on November 8th (their 4th victory in a row), TCU had an inevitable letdown in a 34-30 survival vs. outmanned Kansas. With 2 weeks to prepare for this primetime showcase, look for the Horned Frogs to be stepping it up a notch. The defensive statistics for these teams are relatively even. But, on the offensive side of the ball, led by QB Boykin, the Frogs are doubling the Horns’ 23 PPG output, while ascending to 200 Club status with an attack that averages 542 YPG and 6.7 YP play.
Offense the difference, as TCU proves to the nation that their inclusion in the Big 12 is well warranted!
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