11-28-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob

***WESTERN MICHIGAN (-7) 37 Northern Illinois 21


Fri Nov-28-2014 at 08:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 320 Over/Under 58.0


Western Michigan failed to cover the spread in their opener by 2 points but the Broncos have gone a perfect 10-0 ATS since then and they’re still underrated. Actually, this game is a combination of Western Michigan still being underrated and Northern Illinois being overrated. Northern Illinois has averaged 425 yards at 5.9 yards per play and they’ve allowed 419 yards at 5.7 yppl, which are actually bad numbers when you take into account that the Huskies have faced teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl on offense while allowing 6.0 yppl against an average FBS opponent. So, Northern Illinois is 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively. Overall, the Huskies line of scrimmage rating, which is a combination of total yards and yards per play adjusted for schedule strength, is 8.2 points worse than an average FBS team. NIU has faced an FBS schedule that is 9.0 points easier than average and they’ve only outscored those 10 opponents by an average of 1.5 points per game, which is 7.5 points worse than average on a compensated points scale. Either way you look at it the Huskies are a well below average team.


Western Michigan, meanwhile, is a bit better than average on a national scale. The Broncos have averaged 7.1 yards per play and allowed 5.4 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.1 yppl and allow 6.2 yppl to an average FBS team. So, Western Michigan is 0.9 yppl better than average offensively and just 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively. From a points perspective the Broncos have outscored their opponents by an average of 12.6 points while facing a schedule that is 11.5 points easier than average, so they’ve been 1.1 points better than average in compensated points while rating at 1.4 points better than average from the line of scrimmage.


It’s clear that Western Michigan is a much better team from the line of scrimmage and the Broncos’ offense should surpass their average of 35.8 points per game given that they’re at home and facing a defense that is a bit worse than the average defense they’ve faced this season. Northern Illinois isn’t likely to keep up with an offense that has averaged a modest 28 points per game against teams that are a bit worse defensively that Western Michigan. My math model projects 492 yards at 7.3 yards per play for the Broncos while the Huskies are projected to gain a modest 384 yards at 5.7 yppl. NIU does have a slight advantage in projected turnovers (0.3 points worth) but Western Michigan has a 1.0 point edge in special teams and the Broncos should be favored by more than 10 points in this game. In addition to the line value Western Michigan also applies to a number of good situations, including an 85-29-1 ATS late season home momentum situation, while Northern Illinois applies to a 39-105-1 ATS road underdog situation. I’ll take Western Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -9 ½ points (1-Star at -10).




***MARSHALL (-21) 54 Western Kentucky 23


Fri Nov-28-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 324 Over/Under 74.0


Marshall’s habit of covering big numbers was temporarily interrupted last week in a deceiving 23-18 win as an 18 point favorite at UAB, but the Thundering Herd should return to business as usual at home against a defensively inept Western Kentucky team whose high flying offense hasn’t proven that it can move the ball against a good defensive team. Last week’s narrow 5 point win over UAB looks a lot closer on the scoreboard than it actually was, as Marshall outgained the Blazers 518 yards at 7.0 yards per play to 346 yards at 4.2 yppl and their overall line of scrimmage rating in that game was actually a bit higher than their season average. In other words, there is nothing wrong with the Marshall machine that is a perfect 11-0 straight up this season and is 12-3-1 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite of 14 points or more (8-1-1 ATS at home).


The part of this game that is pretty easy to handicap is how Marshall’s well-balanced and potent attack will score on nearly every possession against a Western Kentucky defense that ranks 120th in my compensated defensive ratings. The Hilltoppers have allowed an average of 36.8 points on 486 yards per game at 6.4 yards per play despite facing a schedule of worse than average offensive teams that would combine to average only 25.7 points and 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Western Kentucky hasn’t faced a team nearly as good as Marshall’s offense but the Hilltoppers have faced 5 mediocre or better than average offensive teams and they gave up 50 points or more to 3 of them (Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, and Louisiana Tech) and 42 points to Illinois. Three of those teams fall into the mediocre offensive category (and Old Dominion is better than average offensively) and today they face an elite offensive team that has averaged 45 points and 548 yards per game at 7.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack). Western Kentucky’s defense is 0.7 yppl worse than the average defensive rating of the teams that Marshall has averaged those 45 points against and my math model is projecting 657 total yards and 54 points for the Thundering Herd in this game. That may sound unrealistic but Marshall’s top 5 offensive games have averaged 642 total yards and they’ve topped 700 total yards twice – and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they did it again today.


While it’s pretty obvious to expect Marshall to score a lot of points, the real question is how many points Western Kentucky’s good offense can score – and more specifically if they can score enough to stay within 3 or 4 touchdowns. The Hilltoppers do have an excellent offense that has averaged 41.9 points on 508 yards at 6.8 yards per play while facing teams that would combine to allow 34.5 points and 6.1 yppl to an average offensive team. Marshall’s defense, however, is just as good as the Herd have yielded only 4.4 yppl to a schedule of FBS opponents that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. What I like about Marshall’s defense is that they played their best against the best offensive team that they’ve faced so far – holding Old Dominion’s better than average attack to just 14 points on 239 yards and 3.6 yppl. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, has faced only one good defensive team all season (Louisiana Tech) and the Hilltoppers were held to 10 points on 297 yards at 4.1 yppl in that game by the Bulldogs (a 59-10 Best Bet win). That’s just one game but it’s certainly an indication that Western Kentucky’s offense may be relatively worse against a good defensive team while Marshall’s defense has been relatively better against the better offensive teams that they’ve faced (perhaps because they play with more focus when challenged). The math model projects 405 yards at 5.3 yppl for Western Kentucky, which equates to 23 points.


The projected stats would predict a 31 point win for Marshall and another method I use that predicts what the true line should be (it’s a combination of the box score projected margin and the actual line and is based on the historical performance of my model) comes up with a true line of 26 points. There is certainly line value favoring Marshall and the Thundering Herd will play with plenty of focus and emotion at home as they attempt to close out a perfect regular season. Marshall applies to a 122-60-3 ATS late season angle that plays on home favorites with 1 or fewer losses and unbeaten (7-0 or better) conference home favorites of 21 points or more are 51-23-1 ATS. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, applies to a 22-58 ATS last game double-digit underdog angle. The combination of line value and supporting situations make this game a really good play and I’ll take Marshall in a 3-Star Best Bet at -23 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -24 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges
FRIDAY, Nov. 28

• Virginia -1 Virginia Tech
• Toledo -23 E. Michigan
• E. Carolina -17 1/2 Tulsa
• UCLA -5 Stanford
• Colorado State -7 Air Force
• Akron -3 Kent St

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports



5 Unit Play. #338/#332 Take UCLA Bruins -5 over Stanford Cardinal (Friday 3:30 pm ABC)

Top College Football Game of the Week

The Bruins got the victory over their cross-town rivals last Saturday and now have their sights set on an appearance in the PAC-12 Championship Game with a victory against Stanford on Saturday. The Cardinal continue to be overvalued all season long, and after they lose today they will finish out the season at a disappointing 6-6. The mystique of David Shaw is starting to fade in a big way, and you can bet Jim Mora is out for revenge after a tough loss last season in Palo Alto. UCLA is much better on offense, and Brett Hundley is playing outstanding football of late. The Bruins still have an outside chance to make the 4-team playoff with victories the next two weeks, and they will make a statement in this affair. Stanford is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. UCLA is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning road record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nortcoast big dogs

n.illinois and air force for friday.

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Dave Cokin

[317] Ball State 1st Half (+5.5-ish)
[341] Colorado State -7

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Point Train

NCAAF
4* Iowa

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EZWINNERS


2* (315) Virginia Cavaliers PICK

I usually hate to back teams that have been dominated by their opponent but that is exactly what I am going to do in this game by rolling with the Cavs. Virginia Tech is no where near the team that they used to be and on top of that they have been hit very hard by the injury bug. The Hokies offense is pathetic and only ranks ahead of Wake Forest in the ACC who they lost to 6-3 in double overtime last week in a game that set offensive football back 100 years. The Cavs are coming off of a big home win over Miami and on a short holiday week could usually lead to a letdown, but I don't believe that will be the case here. Both of these teams need this win to become bowl eligible and Virginia is clearly the better team. Even in the games they have lost, Virginia has outgained every opponent with the exception of Florida State. I look for the Cavs to end this long losing streak to Tech and send the Hokies home for the holidays. Play on Virginia.

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BEN BURNS FOOTBALL

BREAKFAST CLUB - n.illinois (goes at 11:00 est)
BEST BET - stanford

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Football Crusher

Play of the Day
Tulsa +17.5 over East Carolina

Rest of the Plays
Massachusetts +2.5 over Buffalo
South Florida +11 over Central Florida
Air Force +7.5 over Colorado St

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Hockey Crusher

Play of the Day
Boston Bruins -155 over Winnipeg Jets

Rest of the Plays
New Jersey Devils +104 over Detroit Red Wings
New York Islanders +100 over Washington Caps
Vancouver Canucks -142 over Columbus Blue Jackets

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Basketball Crusher

Play of the Day
Boise State +6.5 over NC State

Rest of the Plays
IPFW +1 over Dartmouth
Mississippi State PK over St. Louis
Middle Tennessee +8.5 over Cincinnati

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Soccer Crusher

Sonderjyske + Esbjerg UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Denmark

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS (CFB)

3-Unit Play. Take #335 Arkansas (-2) over Missouri (2:30 p.m., Friday, Nov. 28)
We faded the ranked Missouri Tigers last weekend, and we are going to do it again this weekend. Arkansas have been our ATS darlings all season, and we are going back to the well. We are also a fan of taking unranked teams over ranked teams, so this game fits both of our favorite plays. The Missouri Tigers are ranked inside the top 20 and they are playing for a Division Title and yet they are getting points at home? Yup, sign me up. Arkansas, even with five losses cracked ESPN’s power rankings due to their solid play versus some extremely impressive competition. The Razorbacks have proven that they can play with the nations best and they will do so again this weekend. Arkansas is 5-0 ATS in their last five road games versus a team with a winning home record and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record. Lay the number on the unranked road team as they get the job done.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER (CFB)

4-Unit play. Take UCLA