11-29-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Computer Group (Billy Walters)
3 unit Kansas State (cfb)

Banker Sports
6 Unit Money Play
Florida 1st half (cfb)

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Marc lawrence super pick = troy

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Brian Edwards

North Carolina St +6

Alabama -9.5

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Marc lawrence data play = geo tech

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BEN BURNS FOOTBALL

BREAKFAST CLUB - syracuse

NON-CONF GOY - florida st

MAIN EVENT - alabama

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Greg Shaker

CFB Total Sat


Connecticut /Memphis OVER 43.0

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ANTHONY MICHAEL (Play of the Day)

Auburn +8.5

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ALLEN EASTMAN (CFB)

3-Unit Play. Take #361 Rice (+7) over Louisiana Tech (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 29)
I think that this could be another upset. I think that these two teams are very similar. I have them nearly equal in my own ratings. If you look at their results on the season they are very similar against common opponents. Rice has only lost one of its last eight games. That was at Marshall. Louisiana Tech has won five of six but they are coming off a bad loss. They lost outright as a 13-point favorite at Old Dominion last week in overtime. I think that loss is going to stay with this team. They could have clinched the West Division title with a win in that game. Now this game will determine who wins the division in Conference USA. Rice has gone 5-1 ATS in this series going back to 2001 and they won by a blowout last year at home. I think that they can win this game. And I think that it is going to be a back-and-forth close game no matter what. Take the points.

4-Unit Play. Take #366 Northwestern (-8) over Illinois (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 29)
The Wildcats have posted back-to-back wins. They look more like the team that I expected to see early in the season. This team has had a really tough schedule. And they struggled in October. But they are making a strong push and this team wants to go to a bowl game. Illinois has really struggled on the road. They have been outscored by almost four touchdowns (26.8 PPG) on the road this year. I think they are really going to struggle in Evanston like they did in 2012 when they were blown out 50-14! Northwestern needs this win to get to a bowl game and I think that they are going to get it and get it in a big way.

8-Unit Play. Take #442 James Madison (-3) over Liberty (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 29)
This is a rare FCS play for me. These games are not usually lined. But that is an advantage to the player. The sportsbooks don’t have a great read on these teams and don’t normally have to put spreads on their games. So these games always have soft numbers that can be beaten. I have some contacts with the James Madison team. I have been talking to people this week and they are telling me that Liberty is cooked. They said they don’t have nearly as much talent as JMU and this spread isn’t even close. I’m hearing that Liberty is just happy to be in the playoffs but they don’t have any prayer of advancing. This is Liberty’s first-ever playoff appearance. They are coming off an upset win over Coastal Carolina. They won’t pull two upsets in a row. James Madison was an at-large team and they are considered one of the threats to win it all. They are going to run away in this one and I expect a blowout winner here.

3-Unit Play. Take #418 Louisville (-12.5) over Kentucky (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 29)
I like the Cardinals in this one. They are coming off a big win over Notre Dame last week. That will carry them through this week. This team is underrated in my book. They had that brutal late loss against Florida State. But that is their only loss since the beginning of October. They are 4-2 ATS in their last six and that includes the tough FSU loss and non-cover. Kentucky has gone in the tank. They beat bad teams early in the year. But they have not even been close in the SEC. They have lost five straight games and all five losses were blowouts! They lost 50-16 last week at Tennessee and I expect more of the same this week against another Top 25 team. Louisville will be too much and they will add another blowout to Kentucky’s year. Lay ‘em.

4-Unit Play. Take #391 Georgia Tech (+13) over Georgia (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 29)
I like the underdog in this one. Georgia Tech is the less respected program in the state of Georgia. The Bulldogs are the main team so this game means everything to the Yellowjackets. Georgia has an outside chance of getting into the final four playoff. Georgia Tech would like nothing more than to end any hope of that. Georgia Tech feels like it hasn’t gotten any respect this year even though they have the same record (9-2) as their ?big brother? Georgia. These two teams played into overtime last year and UGA got the win. But that gives the Jackets revenge. In fact, they have revenge for five straight losses in the series. Tech has won four straight games and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. The road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 in this series and Tech is 3-1 ATS in its last four trips to Athens. Take the points here.

3-Unit Play. Take #405 Nevada (-9.5)over UNLV (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 29)
Blowout! The Rebels are terrible! They lost a heartbreaker at Hawaii last week. I don’t think they bring anything into this game. UNLV is the local team out in Vegas. So all the wise guys that I talk to out there are putting their money on Nevada. They know this UNLV team is bad and just ready for the season to end. Nevada has revenge in this game for a surprise loss last year in this series. They are a huge road favorite and they need to bounce back after two losses the last two weeks. They should lay the wood.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE (CFB)
8 Unit Play Take #426 UTSA -4.5 over North Texas (12:00pm est):
The UTSA football program was started in 2010 and started playing for real the following season in 2011. The first group of UTSA players will play in their final game here versus North Texas. An incredible 36 players are seniors on this UTSA team and 18 of them have been around since the first year of the program. Head coach Larry Coker has spoke all week how this will be an emotional game for the Roadrunners program. A lot was expected of this group coming into the season and after a dominating 27-0 win to open the year at Houston, expectations became even higher. UTSA battled but were barely beaten 26-23 in week two by an Arizona Wildcats team that’s been in the top 20 for most of this season. The following week UTSA lost senior quarterback Tucker Carter to an injury in the middle of their game against Oklahoma State and because of that were soundly beaten. Carter came back the following game and UTSA played well on the road at FAU but somehow let a 10 point lead slip away late in the 4th quarter slip and were beat on touchdown with just 20 seconds left to lose. In the following game Carter was hurt before the half with UTSA leading on the road and since then the wheels have completely come off this team as they’ve averaged just 10 points per game without Carter leading the way over their next six games. Freshman Austin Robinson has taken over for Carter and the drop off in play has been huge as Robinson has the lowest rated QBR in all of college football for qualifying quarterbacks. In the 3 games that Carter started and finished he’s thrown for an average of 207 yards per game. Robinson did play well in a handful of games and in those three contests UTSA went 2-1 overall. When the Roadrunners did get competent quarterback play they were a decent team as their defense ranks as one of the best one’s in CFB for teams with only 3 wins or less on the year. The good news here is that Tucker Carter will actually return here against North Texas and play in his final game for UTSA. There’s no reason for Carter to come back from an injury to play in this game here other than for the fact he and this gigantic senior class want to walk away from UTSA a winner. There’s no conference title at stake, bowl game or even a .500 record on the line in this one. Instead it’s just a bunch of guys playing what will most likely be their last game of organized football.
North Texas has had an awful season as well going just 4-7 overall coming into this one. Last year was the first winning season since 2004 for North Texas as they managed to go 9-4 overall for the year. They came into this year knowing things would be much tougher with just 9 returning starters back. All four of their wins this season have come against bottom of the barrel type teams while all seven of their losses were by double digits or more and six of the seven defeats came by at least 20 points. Last week’s win over FIU was a nice win for the senior class at North Texas as they got a win in their final home game. Now they must travel here to play what amounts to a meaningless game for the Mean Green in this one. In their five road games this season they’ve went winless at 0-5 overall and have lost by an average of 26 points per defeat. At the advanced stats website I use, North Texas is just one of a handful of teams ranked 110th or worse in BOTH offense and on defense. This is a very bad football team and oddly enough because they have 4 wins on the season overall, their even a bit overrated as well.
UTSA head coach Larry Coker wants badly to send his 1st UTSA recruits, the kids who helped start this football program, out a winner. We have two teams here playing this game with entirely different motivations. It doesn’t get much better than that. Take UTSA minus the points here. Big start to the NBA season as I’m hitting nearly 70 percent overall. Get on board and join in the winning as pro hoops has been my top sport the last 12 months with huge profits made.
Thank you and good luck.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS (CFB)
6-Unit Play. Take #409 South Carolina (+4.5) over Clemson (noon, Saturday, Nov. 29)
Little brother doesn’t beat big brother. Even with South Carolina having a down year, they just plain have Clemson’s number. Clemson hasn’t been all that great either. Clemson has played versus four good teams thus far this season and the only team they beat was Louisville, and that was an awful game to watch. South Carolina is 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus Clemson and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record. South Carolina has proven that they are just a team that Clemson can’t get by and that was when Clemson was really good. The Gamecocks have beaten Clemson by a combined 80 points over the last five meetings. Yup, you read that right, that is an average of 16-point margin of victory. The closest that Clemson came to beating South Carolina over the last five seasons was in 2012, when they lost 27-17. Some teams just have the number on others, and this is one of those situations. Clemson is 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win. Take the road favorite here as they play the big brother role over the little brother in the state of South Carolina.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Auburn at Alabama

Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5, 53.5)

The Iron Bowl features one of the premier rivalries in college football, but in terms of pure drama, it will be nearly impossible to top last year’s finish. No. 1 Alabama hopes to exact a measure of revenge for last season’s devastating loss when it hosts No. 16 Auburn in the regular-season finale for both SEC powerhouses. The Crimson Tide’s hopes of a third straight national championship ended against the Tigers last season when Chris Davis returned a missed field goal 109 yards on the final play of the game, giving Auburn a stunning 34-28 win en route to a trip to the BCS title game.

This season, the Crimson Tide have rebounded in impressive fashion to take over No. 1 in the Coaches Poll and also the top spot in the College Football Playoff rankings. A seventh straight win on Saturday would send Alabama to the SEC title game against either Missouri or Georgia while a loss would likely end their national championship dreams. Auburn, meanwhile, watched its title hopes slip away with back-to-back losses to Texas A&M and Georgia followed by a lethargic win over Samford last weekend.

TV: 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Alabama -9.5, but dropped a full point to -8.5 Tuesday night. The total of 53.5 has yet to move since open.

INJURY REPORT: Auburn – WR Ricardo Louis (Prob-Undisclosed), WR D’haquille Williams (Prob-Knee), DL Jeffrey Whitaker (Ques-Neck) Alabama – RB T.J. Yeldon (Prob-Ankle), TE Brian Vogler (Doub-Knee), DL Anthony Orr (Ques-Undisclosed), WR DeAndrew White (Prob-Undisclosed), LB Reuben Foster (Prob-Undisclosed)

WEATHER FORECAST: Clouds are expected to be partly cloudy with minimum wind come game time. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to high 50′s.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “Almost 60 percent of our handle is on the home squad, but most of the sharps are backing the dog so we’ve dropped the spread a half point since opening. The Tigers are out of contention so you have to handicap their motivation: Have they quit on the season or will they be fired up to oust their rival from the national title picture? They certainly started with their heads in the clouds last weekend. In my opinion, Auburn’s defense won’t be able to keep them in it.” – John Lester, Senior Lines Manager at Bookmaker.eu

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “Hands down the most impactful revenge game this college football season as it was Auburn, rather than Alabama, who played in the SEC title and BCS championship games thanks to its last second-miracle 109-yard return of a miss field goal win over the Tide last season. Must be careful, though, as the 3-loss Tigers are loose as a goose while the top-ranked Crimson have all the pressure squarely on their shoulders today. Besides, laying points into Gus Malzahn is never easy, as Alabama knows full well.” – Marc Lawrence

ABOUT AUBURN (8-3, SU, 4-7 ATS, 6-5 O/U): The Tigers failed to reach 400 yards against Samford as Nick Marshall continued to put up underwhelming passing statistics. The senior quarterback passed for 171 yards and has not thrown for more than 254 yards in any game this season, while he only has one game of more than two TDs passes this year and has thrown five interceptions in his last six contests. On the other side of the ball, the Tigers’ defense recorded two sacks and hurried Samford’s quarterback a season-high 21 times, prompting Auburn coach Gus Malzahn to say, “The big factor was we put pressure on the quarterback. That was the key to our defensive performance.”

ABOUT ALABAMA (10-1 SU, 3-8 ATS, 4-6 O/U): The Crimson Tide are second in the nation in points allowed (14.5) and fell right on that number in last week’s 48-14 triumph against Western Carolina as they outgained the Catamounts 612-213. Alabama knows it can rely on its defense, as well as senior quarterback Blake Sims (20 TDs, four INTs) and junior wideout Amari Cooper, who is tied with D.J. Hall (2004-07) with a school-record 194 receptions. “I think the Iron Bowl is one of the greatest rivalries in college football,” coach Nick Saban told reporters. “This game means a lot to a lot of people in this state, regardless of which side you’re on, and also around the country. As a competitor, it’s a great opportunity because this game has had a lot of significance over the past few years and it’s certainly no different last year or this year.”

TRENDS:

*Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Under is 5-0 in Crimson Tide last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
*Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Alabama.

CONSENSUS: 50.09 percent are backing Alabama -8.5 with 57 percent on the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

CFB | CONNECTICUT at MEMPHIS
Play On – Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (MEMPHIS) off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

CFB | NORTH TEXAS at UTSA
Play Against – A home team vs. the money line (UTSA) after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season
33-22 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.0% | 0.0 units )
5-6 this year. ( 45.5% | 0.0 units )

CFB | MICHIGAN at OHIO ST
Play Over – Any team vs the the 1rst half total excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
2-4 this year. ( 33.3% | -2.4 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 14

The college football season is almost through the regular schedule, which means bowl season is just around the bend. But not before an action-packed Week 14, boasting some of the biggest and best rivalries in sports. We break down all the games involving Top 25 teams and give you need-to-know notes for betting each and every one:

(15) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at (9) Georgia Bulldogs (-12.5)

*Georgia Tech’s 116 points off turnovers are the fourth-most in FBS this season. The Yellow Jackets are one of only five teams to score 110+ points off turnovers in 2014.

*Facing the triple-option attack of Georgia Tech, Georgia coach Mark Richt was preaching the basics to his young backend this week. “If one guy makes a mistake or one guys decides he’s not going to play good fundamentals this play or one guy decides he’s going to do his own thing, bam, big play. Because you’ll see a lot of three, four, three, two and a half, you know, and then bam, big play, pass or run.”

Kentucky Wildcats at (23) Louisville Cardinals (-12.5)

*Entering rivalry week, the extremely young Kentucky team (64 percent underclassman) needed to be taught what this game means. “We educated them today about the Governor’s Cup, what it means. Some of the coaches talked about their personal memories,” offensive coordinator Neal Brown said.

*Cardinals S Gerod Holliman – who leads the nation with 13 interceptions – has picked off five passes in his last three games and needs one more to equal the NCAA single-season record.

Michigan Wolverines at (7) Ohio State Buckeyes (-21)

*Running against the Wolverines has been easier said than done this season. Michigan has allowed a mere 2.94 yards per carry and has 55 tackles for a loss in Big Ten games this season.

*Though “The Game” is storied, it has been far from competitive in recent years. The Buckeyes have outscored the Wolverines 216-129 in the past seven meetings (12.5 average margin of victory). Ohio State is also 6-1 SU and ATS during that seven game span.

South Carolina Gamecocks at (24) Clemson Tigers

*The Gamecocks have a five-game winning streak over Clemson (since 2009) thanks to their defense. In those five games, South Carolina has 21 sacks and has created 15 turnovers.

*The question is who will be starting at QB for Clemson this week as Deshaun Watson re-injured himself last week. “He’s not going to be at 100 percent,” Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said. “Very few players are at 100 percent when you’re in the 12th game of the season, but he’s got to be able to execute at a high level.”

Florida Gators at (2) FSU Seminoles (-7.5)

*The Gators know what playing FSU is all about and they will be practicing for a hostile environment this week. Florida will be blaring the Seminoles war chant throughout practices to get the players comfortable with communicating over the noise.

*No other player in football has been better at putting teams away than Jameis Winston. The redshirt sophomore has a 163.5 passer rating in the second half this year while completing 68.8 percent of his passes and has thrown for 10 touchdowns.

(4) Mississippi State Bulldogs at (19) Ole Miss Rebels (+2.5)

*Even though Ole Miss had a bad last game against Arkansas, coach Dan Mullen is not ready to accept that as the norm. “One of the things that can get you in danger is judge last week’s game as having any relevance toward this week,” the Bulldogs coach said. “I think they turned it over six times last week. That’s not going to happen.”

*Bo Wallace injured his ankle in last week’s loss to Arkansas, but the Bulldogs pivot won’t miss this game. “It would take a lot more than that to keep him out of this game. He’s hungry and wants to play in this game in a bad way,” coach Hugh Freeze said. “He’s going to try to go no matter what. He’s gotten better each day. Hopefully he’ll be close to 100 percent.”

(8) Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions (+13)

*Michigan State’s offense is on pace to become the most prolific in school history. The Spartans have already set school records for most points (483), total offense (5,660 yards), offensive touchdowns (61) and made point-after attempts (63).

*The Nittany Lions feature one of the best defenses in the nation. Penn State ranks first in rushing (81.7), third in total defense (267.2) and fourth in scoring defense (16.2) the FBS.

(22) Minnesota Golden Gophers at (14) Wisconsin Badgers (-14)

*Minnesota has rushed the ball 522 times this season, compared to throwing just 203. The team is also 6-1 when they rush for 200 or more yards as a team. However, the Golden Gophers will likely be without top RB David Cobb due to a hamstring injury.

*We all know how impressive Melvin Gordon has been this year, but has been stellar against the best teams. In the last seven against Top 25 teams, Gordon is averaging 172 rushing yards and 9.95 yards per carry.

(6) Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+24.5)

*The state of Texas has been owned by Baylor for years now. Since 2011, the Bears are 39-11 SU and 33-17 ATS in games held in the Lone Star State.

*There is no doubt that Texas Tech is simply playing spoiler at this point and coach Kingsbury is fine with that. “It’s our last game. For some of these seniors, it’s the last game they’ll ever play and for some of these juniors it’s the last game they’ll play for eight months. So if you’re not motivated for that reason alone, you’re probably in the wrong sport.”

Kansas Jayhawks at (11) Kansas State Wildcats (-27.5)

*Kansas ranks first in the Big 12 and 14th nationally in red-zone defense, allowing 32 scores in 44 trips.

*The Wildcats are currently boasting one of the deadliest QB-WR combinations in college football. Since the beginning of 2013, Jake Waters and Tyler Lockett have hooked up for an average of seven times per game while averaging 112.9 yards per game.

(16) Auburn Tigers at (1) Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5)

*With the offense sputtering, it was Auburn’s defense that ensured there was no Cinderella story against Samford last week. The Tigers’ defense recorded two sacks and hurried Samford’s quarterback a season-high 21 times, prompting Auburn coach Gus Malzahn to say, “The big factor was we put pressure on the quarterback. That was the key to our defensive performance.”

*There is no doubt that the Crimson Tide will be looking towards WR Amari Cooper come the Iron Bowl. In Cooper’s two games against Auburn, the receiver has 11 catches for 287 yards and three touchdowns.

(3) Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers (+19.5)

*The Ducks are one of the most dominant teams over the past five seasons and they have routinely blown out opponents. In 50 of Oregon’s 57 victories since 2010, the Ducks won by 14 points or more.

*It will be Sean Mannion’s last chance to get a win over the rival Ducks. The senior QB has thrown for 924 yards with six touchdowns and seven interceptions in his starts against Oregon.

Utah State Aggies at (25) Boise State Broncos (-8.5)

*The Aggies are 6-1 in Mountain West road games under coach Matt Wells and have beaten 13 of their last 14 conference opponents on the road.

*Quietly, Boise State has the fourth longest home winning streak in college football, winning their past 12 SU (6-6 ATS). The Broncos are topping teams by an average of 26.7 ppg on the blue turf.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Michigan/Ohio St Over 51

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MADDUX SPORTS (CFB)

Wisconsin – 13 (10*)

Baylor -24 (10*)

Georgia – 12.5 (10*)

Georgia Southern – 14 (10*)