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NFL scores are dropping: Where to find best Under value
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
At first glance, Week 11 in the NFL schedule appeared to be an anomaly in this day and age of pass-first, up-tempo offenses.
With record-setting quarterbacks in Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers under center, as well as a more-than-capable Mark Sanchez running Chip Kelly’s system and Tom Brady setting the league on fire with each passing week, one would assume NFL scoreboards were being lit up like the Las Vegas Strip on the Fourth of July.
Yet, when the dust had settled on Week 11, the 14 contests played in this era of offensive firepower combined to average a grand total of just 37.57 points per game, with five of those matchups checking in at a total of 30 or fewer points
Unders went 10-4 - much to the delight of Vegas bookmakers - raising the question of whether or not this defensive resurgence would be a continuing trend through the remainder of the regular season.
Perhaps bookmakers who were shading totals towards the Over in order to counteract the public’s thirst for capitalizing on scoring would present and opportunity for Under bettors to seize.
Week 12 again saw Unders emerge victorious, with the Sunday afternoon games going 4-7 Over/Under. Week 12 finished with a razor-thin 7-8 O/U lean that put Unders at a very profitable 17-10 over the last two weeks, lending a bit more credence to the fact that perhaps the league’s defenses were beginning to hit their collective stride.
Is some combination of the cold weather and mounting injuries triggering a decrease in scoring?
First, let’s take a look at the month-by-month team scoring averages for the 2014 season:
September: 23.09 points per game
October: 23.48 points per game
November: 21.98 points per game
As you can no doubt see, scoring is down for the month of November. But have the bookmakers kept pace? Here’s a look at the average NFL total by month for the 2014 campaign:
September: 45.71 points per game
October: 46.31 points per game
November: 46.37 points per game
Not only has scoring dropped off by approximately 1.5 points per team per game from October to November, but the average NFL total has increased by more than half a point from September to November.
This data appears to explain the recent success of Unders, but like all things in the modern sports betting era, windows of opportunity don’t stay open for that long. If recent history is any indicator, the window may be already shut tight.
NFL scoring has decreased from the month of November to the month of December in four of the past five seasons. And of those four seasons in which scoring dropped, the bookmakers followed suit by decreasing their totals for the month of December in three instances, once again affirming the harsh reality that it’s tough to get anything past these guys.
However, that doesn’t mean there’s no possible way to tip the scales back in our favor. Through 12 weeks, Overs have gone 89-86 (.508). While that appears to be a virtual perfect balance, take a look at the following breakdown of 2014 totals:
Thursday night games: 8-4 (.666) O/U
Sunday night games: 11-1 (.916) O/U
Monday night games: 10-4 (.714) O/U
The moral of the story: While Overs have gone 89-86 on the season, they are a staggering 29-9 (.763) during primetime games. That means that Unders have gone 77-66 (.566) on Sunday afternoons.
Happy hunting.
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
At first glance, Week 11 in the NFL schedule appeared to be an anomaly in this day and age of pass-first, up-tempo offenses.
With record-setting quarterbacks in Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers under center, as well as a more-than-capable Mark Sanchez running Chip Kelly’s system and Tom Brady setting the league on fire with each passing week, one would assume NFL scoreboards were being lit up like the Las Vegas Strip on the Fourth of July.
Yet, when the dust had settled on Week 11, the 14 contests played in this era of offensive firepower combined to average a grand total of just 37.57 points per game, with five of those matchups checking in at a total of 30 or fewer points
Unders went 10-4 - much to the delight of Vegas bookmakers - raising the question of whether or not this defensive resurgence would be a continuing trend through the remainder of the regular season.
Perhaps bookmakers who were shading totals towards the Over in order to counteract the public’s thirst for capitalizing on scoring would present and opportunity for Under bettors to seize.
Week 12 again saw Unders emerge victorious, with the Sunday afternoon games going 4-7 Over/Under. Week 12 finished with a razor-thin 7-8 O/U lean that put Unders at a very profitable 17-10 over the last two weeks, lending a bit more credence to the fact that perhaps the league’s defenses were beginning to hit their collective stride.
Is some combination of the cold weather and mounting injuries triggering a decrease in scoring?
First, let’s take a look at the month-by-month team scoring averages for the 2014 season:
September: 23.09 points per game
October: 23.48 points per game
November: 21.98 points per game
As you can no doubt see, scoring is down for the month of November. But have the bookmakers kept pace? Here’s a look at the average NFL total by month for the 2014 campaign:
September: 45.71 points per game
October: 46.31 points per game
November: 46.37 points per game
Not only has scoring dropped off by approximately 1.5 points per team per game from October to November, but the average NFL total has increased by more than half a point from September to November.
This data appears to explain the recent success of Unders, but like all things in the modern sports betting era, windows of opportunity don’t stay open for that long. If recent history is any indicator, the window may be already shut tight.
NFL scoring has decreased from the month of November to the month of December in four of the past five seasons. And of those four seasons in which scoring dropped, the bookmakers followed suit by decreasing their totals for the month of December in three instances, once again affirming the harsh reality that it’s tough to get anything past these guys.
However, that doesn’t mean there’s no possible way to tip the scales back in our favor. Through 12 weeks, Overs have gone 89-86 (.508). While that appears to be a virtual perfect balance, take a look at the following breakdown of 2014 totals:
Thursday night games: 8-4 (.666) O/U
Sunday night games: 11-1 (.916) O/U
Monday night games: 10-4 (.714) O/U
The moral of the story: While Overs have gone 89-86 on the season, they are a staggering 29-9 (.763) during primetime games. That means that Unders have gone 77-66 (.566) on Sunday afternoons.
Happy hunting.
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