12-1-14

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BEN BURNS

BEST BET - jets

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MNF REPORT
MONDAY DECEMBER, 1st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #13 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Monday's Week #13 Matchup
Systems Analyst Todd Smith

#475 MIAMI @ #476 NY JETS
TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Dolphins -5.5, Total: 41.5

Geno Smith will step out of the revolving door to start at quarterback as the New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East matchup on Monday Night Football. Smith, who has just one win in seven starts on the season, got the call from an apparent lame-duck coach Rex Ryan after Michael Vick struggled in another ugly performance for the Jets last week. Neither quarterback has made much of a difference for the Jets, who are ranked last in the league in passing. "Everybody's on board with this decision," Ryan told reporters. "I have said it all along that I feel we have two good quarterbacks, I definitely feel that. And we have another guy that is a decent quarterback as well, in (Matt) Simms. But I feel that way."

Miami is 0-3 in games decided by four or fewer points after blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead in a 39-36 loss at Denver last Sunday. It was the team's first loss after entering the fourth with a lead of more than 10 in 14 years. The Dolphins have little wiggle room in their playoff hunt that has basically come down to a quest for a wild card berth after losing touch in the division race to New England. "We have to find a way to win some of those games," coach Joe Philbin said. "We are going to be in some more of those games. That's just the way the NFL typically is." The Dolphins also gave up late leads in defeats to Detroit in Week #10 and Green Bay in Week #6.

•ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (6-5 SU, 7-4-0 ATS): Philbin's club is part of a tightly bunched group of playoff contenders. The Dolphins are in 10th place and one game behind a five-team pack fighting for the two wild-card spots. Miami also trails the Patriots by three games for the AFC East lead, though they defeated New England in their opener and travel to Gillette Stadium on December 14th. Ryan Tannehill is having a fine sophomore season with 20 touchdown passes and he's second on the team with 276 yards rushing. Mike Wallace has caught a touchdown pass in his last three games against the Jets but he is dealing with a calf injury and has been outplayed lately by rookie Jarvis Landry, who leads the team with 49 receptions. The Dolphins are ranked fourth in NFL in passing defense allowing 211.7 yards a game.

•ABOUT THE JETS (2-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS): Vick provided a spark in his first two starts in place of Smith, but he was 7 of 19 for 76 yards before being replaced by Smith in the third quarter Monday. Smith went 10 of 12 for 89 yards, earning another chance this week. The second-year pro hasn't started since October 26th in a 43-23 loss to Buffalo in which he was benched after throwing interceptions on three consecutive possessions. Smith also was replaced after going 4 of 10 for 29 yards and a pick in the last home meeting with the Dolphins, but he led three long scoring drives and completed 17 of 27 for 190 yards on December 29th. New York's Jace Amaro is going through the NFL's concussion protocol, while defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson may be out with a toe injury. Amaro leads all rookie tight ends with 34 catches for 291 yards.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Jets lead their all-time series with Miami by a 50-45-1 margin. On Monday night, the Dolphins play .500 football at 40-40 while New York is 20-29. The visiting team has won the past four games in the series. The teams meet again in Week #17 at Miami.... Tannehill ranks third in the league with a 70.9 completion percentage and has thrown 12 touchdowns and three interceptions in his last six games. However, he did have a key fourth-quarter interception against the Broncos.... Turnovers have been a major issue for the Jets, who are minus-12 on the season, a number that helps explain how the team can be ranked No. 7 in total defense (328.8 yards per game) but be tied for 30th in points allowed (27.5 points per game).... The Dolphins are hoping to have cornerbacks Jamar Taylor and Cortland Finnegan back from injury. Offensive tackle Ja'Wuan James and tight end Charles Clay also could return.

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•KEY STATS
--MIAMI is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) versus poor passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 17.7, OPPONENT 18.7.

--MIAMI is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) versus bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 18.2, OPPONENT 15.8.

--MIAMI is 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 20.6, OPPONENT 18.6.

--MIAMI is 35-13 UNDER (+20.5 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 15.3, OPPONENT 21.7.

--MIAMI is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 17.4, OPPONENT 18.8.

--MIAMI is 29-13 against the 1rst half line (+14.6 Units) in road games versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 10.0, OPPONENT 8.0.

--NY JETS are 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) versus excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY JETS 10.9, OPPONENT 26.2.

--NY JETS are 26-10 UNDER (+14.9 Units) versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 19.2, OPPONENT 16.9.

--NY JETS are 0-10 against the 1rst half line (-11.0 Units) versus excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY JETS 5.6, OPPONENT 14.7.

--NY JETS are 1-12 against the 1rst half line (-12.1 Units) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a division rival since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 5.0, OPPONENT 8.9.

--NY JETS are 8-20 against the 1rst half line (-14.0 Units) after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 8.1, OPPONENT 9.6.

--NY JETS are 33-13 UNDER (+18.7 Units) the 1rst half total in home games in December games since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 8.9, OPPONENT 7.7.

•COACHING TRENDS
--JOE PHILBIN is 21-8 UNDER (+12.1 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of MIAMI.
The average score was MIAMI 20.9, OPPONENT 19.4.

--JOE PHILBIN is 21-7 UNDER (+13.3 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of MIAMI.
The average score was MIAMI 19.9, OPPONENT 19.1.

--REX RYAN is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 19.7, OPPONENT 24.6.

--REX RYAN is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 13.0, OPPONENT 20.3.

--REX RYAN is 17-32 against the 1rst half line (-18.1 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 8.3, OPPONENT 12.5.

--REX RYAN is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return in the second half of the season as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was NY JETS 6.0, OPPONENT 6.5.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NY JETS is 26-13 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1992.
--NY JETS is 25-19 straight up against MIAMI since 1992.
--24 of 43 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--NY JETS is 26-18 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1992.
--23 of 44 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York.
--Dolphins are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 meetings.
--Dolphins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New York.

•RECENT TRENDS
--MIA is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
--MIA is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC.
--Under is 7-1 in MIA last 8 games in December.

--NYJ are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus the AFC.
--NYJ are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Under is 7-3 in NYJ last 10 versus the AFC.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 44 times, while the favorite covered the spread 37 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 69 times, while the underdog won straight up 14 times. 74 games went under the total, while 41 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 56 times, while the underdog covered first half line 45 times. *No EDGE. 117 games went under first half total, while 88 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Favorites of 2 to 6 points versus the first half line (MIAMI) -an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=27 PPG), after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.
(108-63 since 1983.) (63.2%, +38.7 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.8, Opponent 7.7 (Average first half point differential = +6.1)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (30-16).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Tampa Bay won last five games, allowing five goals. Rangers won four of their last five games.
-- Avalanche won five of their last seven games.
-- Bruins won four of their last six games.

Cold teams
-- Columbus lost last six games, scoring eight goals. Florida lost five of its last seven road games.
-- Montreal lost last three games, scoring four goals.
-- Oilers lost last nine games, scoring total of five goals in last five games. Arizona lost last three games, scoring four goals.
-- Anaheim lost eight of its last twelve games.

Series records
-- Blue Jackets won their last eight games with Florida.
-- Rangers lost four of last five games with Tampa Bay.
-- Canadiens won last two games with Colorado, 6-3/3-2.
-- Coyotes won seven of last eight games with Edmonton.
-- Ducks won four of last six games with Boston.

Totals
-- Last seven Columbus-Florida games stayed under.
-- Over is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Tampa Bay games.
-- Eight of last eleven Colorado games went over.
-- Six of last eight Arizona games stayed under total.
-- Under is 15-5-1 in last 21 Anaheim games.

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StatFox Super Situations

NHL | TAMPA BAY at NY RANGERS
Play On - Home Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (NY RANGERS) off a win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 4th game in 7 days
134-63 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 56.1 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.4 units )

NHL | MONTREAL at COLORADO
Play On - Home Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (COLORADO) off a win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 4th game in 7 days
134-63 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 56.1 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.4 units )

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Miami won three of its last four games.
-- Spurs won their last seven games (5-2 vs spread).
-- Nuggets won six of last seven games (5-1-1 vs spread).
-- Clippers won six of last seven games (5-2 vs spread).

Cold Teams
-- Wizards covered two of their last eight games (1-5 HF).
-- 76ers are 0-16, but covered three of last four (5-4 HU).
-- Jazz lost their last five games (1-4 vs spread).
-- Minnesota won/covered twice in last eleven games.

Series Records
-- Heat won six of last eight games with Washington.
-- Spurs won seven in row vs 76ers, winning last three played in Philly by 10-5-24 points.
-- Nuggets won four of last six games with Utah.
-- Clippers won their last nine games with Minnesota.

Totals
-- Five of last six Miami road games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine San Antonio games stayed under.
-- Nine of last twelve Utah games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Clipper games.

Back-to-Backs
-- Miami is 4-1 when it played the night before.
-- Spurs are 2-2 when they played night before.

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StatFox Super Situations

NBA | MINNESOTA at LA CLIPPERS
Play On - Road teams (MINNESOTA) a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games
74-36 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.3% | 34.4 units )
1-4 this year. ( 20.0% | -3.4 units )

NBA | DENVER at UTAH
Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (UTAH) after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games
26-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.0% | 22.5 units )

NBA | SAN ANTONIO at PHILADELPHIA
Play On - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (PHILADELPHIA) terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season, in December games
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

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StatFox Super Situations

CBB | TEXAS SOUTHERN at BAYLOR
Play Against - Home favorites of 10 or more points (BAYLOR) average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less
39-14 since 1997. ( 73.6% | 23.6 units )

CBB | NEBRASKA at FLORIDA ST
Play On - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (FLORIDA ST) after a combined score of 125 points or less, with four starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season
94-50 since 1997. ( 65.3% | 39.4 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

CBB | E TENN ST at MOREHEAD ST
Play Against - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (MOREHEAD ST) team from a mid-major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference, playing only their 3rd game in a week
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play MON Baylor -21

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty had no play on Sunday and likes Nebraska on Monday.

The deficit is 858 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo full of gratitude

Dolphins over Jets: Ah, the Jets game — must be quitting time.

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Randall The Handle

NFL

Dolphins (6-5) at Jets(2-9)
LINE: MIAMI by 7
Are the Jets a crummy team? Answer: Yes. Are the Dolphins better than their 6-5 record would indicate? Answer: Yes. Are we willing to give away a converted touchdown to support those affirmations? Answer: Not on your life. This is a prime-time game that the Jets hardly deserve, but one they’ll be hosting for all the land to see. We saw Gang Green deliver a stellar performance on a Thursday night in New England, coming up just short in a 27-25 battle. The Jets were a 9½-point dog in that one and while things have not gone well for Rex Ryan’s club, should Miami really be a seven-point choice on a cool night up in New Jersey? The Fish have had trouble stopping the run recently and that happens to be New York’s bread and butter (perhaps not by choice) ranking fifth in the NFL. Geno Smith returns to pivot the Jets and, after learning from the bench for a few weeks, New York is hopeful he can execute at his position. Even if he’s mediocre, we’ve got plenty of room for a cover here.
TAKING: JETS +7

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PAUL LEINER

100* NBA – Over 197.5 – Spurs/Sixers
50* CBB – Siena -6

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HALL OF FAME PICKS

705 Denver Nuggets(-3)

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Vegas Hotsheet

Dolphins vs Jets – Over 42