12-3-14

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Ben Burns

10* Blue Chip Total
Clippers/Magic Over 201

Main Event
Davidson -5

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Ben Burns

NHL

Blackhawks

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College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob



Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
*BOISE STATE (-21) 46 Fresno State 19

Sat Dec-06-2014 at 07:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 130 Over/Under 68.5

Boise State only won by 10 points, 37-27, when they hosted Fresno State earlier this season but Fresno applied to a 51-18-3 ATS situation for that game, which kept me from playing the Broncos. This time there is nothing to keep me from playing Boise State, as Fresno actually applies to a 39-108-1 ATS road dog situation that is 0-2 ATS when applying to a team playing as the visitor in their conference championship game. I’m not playing this game based on that situation but rather based on my math model, which gives Boise a profitable 54.4% chance of covering at -21 points based on the historical performance of my model.

Boise State’s offense had a down game in their first meeting with Fresno, as the Broncos should have gained more than 498 yards at 6.2 yards per play given that they have an offense that is 1.0 yards per play better than average (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and Fresno’s defense would allow 6.4 yppl on the road to an average FBS attack (0.6 yppl worse than an average team). Fresno’s average defensive rating is actually worse than that, as the Broncos have allowed 6.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. However, that average is skewed by a horrendous game against sub-par Wyoming offense in which the Bulldogs gave up 694 yards at 9.9 yppl. My model adjusts for outliers, which is why I have Fresno’s defense rated at 0.6 yppl worse than average instead of 1.0 yppl worse than average. The math projects 593 yards at 7.5 yppl for Boise State in the rematch, as quarterback Grant Hedrick should average more than the 9.0 yards per completion that he averaged in the first game (his lowest average of the season) given that Hedrick averages 12.4 ypc for the season and Fresno has allowed 14.1 ypc this year. Hedrick completed 70% of his passes in that first game against the Bulldogs, so it’s not like his receivers weren’t getting open. If Fresno would have allowed their normal 14 yards per completion in that game then Boise would have had 594 total yards, which is the same as what’s projected for this game by the math model. Even with their better than normal result against Boise State in their first meeting the Bulldogs still allowed an average of 49.3 points to the 3 good offensive teams that they faced this season (USC, Nebraska, and Boise) and Boise State has rung up 50 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games and should approach that number in this game.

It will be a challenge for Fresno’s offense to keep up, as the Bulldogs sub-par attack (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) is up against a better than average Boise State defense that rates at 0.4 yppl better than average after adjusting for outliers. Boise’s average defensive rating is just 0.1 yppl better than average but they allowed New Mexico’s option attack to gain 627 yards at 9.7 yppl, which skewed that average upwards. Fresno doesn’t run any option, so Boise’s problems defending the option won’t surface in this game and the Bulldogs are projected to gain a modest 343 yards at 4.7 yppl in this game. Fresno gained 313 yards at 5.3 yppl in the earlier meeting but that yppl average was skewed by a 76 yard run and the Broncos averaged just 4.1 yppl in their other 58 offensive plays that game while one of their other touchdowns was after Boise turned the ball over at their own 5 yard line. Fresno actually only had two scoring drives of more than 2 plays in that game, both resulting in field goals, and I don’t see them having any consistent success offensively this time around either (6 of their 13 drives in the first meeting were 3 and out).

The first meeting between these teams was very misleading and it should ensure that Boise State is focused more than they would be had that first game been the blowout that this game is likely to be. There is value on the side of Boise and the situation is favorable this time around and I’ll make a small play on the Broncos. I’ll take Boise State in a 1-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis
6* Utah -2

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Indian Cowboy
3* Under 136.5 Duke vs. Wisconsin (Tuesday @ 9:30pm est)

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Vegas Sports Informer
NBA
3* Over 201 ORL/LAC

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Robert ferringo (cbb)

721: 2* -2
727: 1* +9
729: 1* +3
733: 1* -3.5
737: 2* -7.5
739: 1* +8
744: 1* -2.5
749: 2* +7
761: 2* +8.5
763: 3* -4.5
770: 1* -8.5
772: 1* -11
774: 1* -5
776: 2* -10.5
782: 1*-15.5
785: 2* -2
800: 2*-14
811: 2* -2

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Doc Sports
CBB
All 4*
Iowa +8.5
William & Mary +8.5
USC -5.5
Long Beach State -10.5

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Strike Point Sports

CBB
5-Unit Take William Mary (+8.5)
3-Unit Take Valparaiso (-2.5)
3-Unit Take Western Kentucky (-2.5)
3-Unit Take Wichita State (+2.5) over Utah

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EZWINNERS

NBA

1* (702) New Orleans +3

NCAAB

1* (754) Tulsa -1.5
1* (768) Wisconsin -$185

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Atari Daily Reports
December 3rd, 2015

A rare NBA night with 4 plays to make.
1 play to win 2.56 units.
3 plays to win 1.28 units.

NBA: 19-5-4: +23.6 units

NBA PLAYS OF THE DAY

1. San Antonio Spurs -9 (-110)
Risking 2.82 units to win 2.56 units
7:35pm ET start
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2. Atlanta Hawks +5 (-110)
Risking 1.4 units to win 1.28 units
7:35pm start

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3. Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 (-124) bought 1 pt. @9amET
Risking 1.59 to win 1.28 units
8pm start

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4. Charlotte Hornets +4.5 (-110)
Risking 1.4 units to win 1.28 units
7pm start

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Bruce Marshall

Old Dominion -4.5

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS (NBA)

5-Unit Play. Take #704 Washington (-8.5) over L.A. Lakers

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Allen Eastman

Temple -2
Colorado -12

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VSI Soccer

3* Arsenal