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No Ill / Bowling Green Over 59.5 ($1000 open order) -
BEN BURNS FOOTBALL
BEST BET - bowling greenComment
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Wayne Root
OregonComment
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Larry Ness' 10* MAC Championship Game Showdown (5-1 MAC run!)
My 10* MAC Championship Game Showdown is on Northern Illinois at 7:00 ET.
Northern Illinois came into the 2014 season off years of 11, 11, 12 and 12 wins. With Jordan Lynch gone on offense plus just FIVE returning starters on the defensive side of the ball, head coach Rod Carey (in his second season) knew reaching the heights of the past four years would be a tough task. The Huskies opened the season with the nation's longest active home winning streak at 26 in a row plus also owned the nation's longest road winning streak at 15. First to fall was NIU’s road winning streak (at 17 in a row), when the Huskies lost 52-14 at Arkansas. The Huskies saw their home winning streak end at 28 straight on Oct 11 when Central Michigan won 34-17 in Dekalb.
As the month of November opened, Northern Illinois was 6-2 overall, including 3-1 in MAC play. NIU visited Ball St on Nov 5 and at that time, Toledo was 5-0 in MAC play and Western Michigan sat at 4-1. In order to reach a FIFTH straight MAC title game, NIU needed to “win out.” That’s exactly what happed, as the Huskies won 35-21 at Ball St, 27-24 at home vs Toledo, 21-14 at Ohio and 31-21 at Western Michigan. NIU won SIX in a row following that loss to Central Michigan, giving them a 7-1 record (matching Toledo), earning the West title due to its win over Toledo.
Awaiting NIU in the title game at Ford Field will be Bowling Green, which is just 7-5 overall and in the MUCH weaker MAC East, took that division with a 5-3 league mark. The schools did not meet this year but one can be sure NEITHER team will forget Bowling Green “taking apart” the then-unbeaten Huskies in last year’s MAC title game 47-27, a final which as NOT as close as the score. NIU enters on a SIX-game winning streak while Bowling Green ‘limps’ into the conference championship game having lost its last two contests 27-20 to Toledo and 41-24 to Ball State (BOTH losses coming after the Falcons had secured the MAC East Division).
Northern Illinois QB Drew Hare is NO Jordan Lynch but he owns an 15-1 TD-to-INT ratio and leads the team in rushing with 790 yards (5.9 YPC / 7 TDs). Northern Illinois averages an impressive 246.2 YPG on the ground (5.0 YPC). Bowling Green QB James Knapke completes a modest 57.4% with a 12-10 TD-to-INT ratio and his running games averages about 60 YPG less than NIU’s, at 180.6 YPC on 4.6 YPC. Knapke has filled in after starter Matt Johnson was lost for the year to a hip injury in the season’s first game. One can be assured NIU is happy Johnson isn't available, as he outplayed Jordan Lynch in last year’s title game, topping 400 yards in total offense, completing 21 of 27 passes for 393 yards with five TDs and no INTs.
That loss not only ruined NIU’s perfect season, it cost NIU what was likely a second straight BCS bowl bid. Northern Illinois is a remarkable 38-2 SU in MAC regular season games since the start of the 2010 season, with BOTH losses coming to Central Michigan (in 2014 and 2011). However, in its four previous MAC title games, NIU is just 2-2 SU and 0-4 (or 0-3-1) ATS. NIU has ALL the motivation from last year’s title-game loss plus is playing SOOO much better than BG coming in. In fact, the way the Falcons run defense has played in its last two games vs Toledo and Ball St (524 yards allowed on 5.7 YPC), it seems to spell certain doom vs NIU.
That’s the bet!
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NHL
Hot teams
-- Ducks won five of their last seven games. Minnesota won seven of last ten.
-- Winnipeg won three of its last four games.
-- Blackhawks won last four games, allowing five goals.
Cold teams
-- Avalanche lost three of their last four games.
-- Canadiens lost four of their last five games.
Series records
-- Ducks won seven of last eight games with Minnesota.
-- Jets won three of last four games with Colorado.
-- Blackhawks won three of last four games with Montreal.
Totals
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Anaheim-Minnesota games.
-- 10 of last 13 Colorado games went over the total.
-- Last five Chicago games stayed under the total.
Back-to-back
-- Colorado is 0-3 if it played the night before.
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NBA
Hot Teams
-- Nuggets won seven of last nine games (2-4 AU). Washington won 12 of last 16 games (3-5 last eight HF).
-- Hawks won six of their last seven games (1-0-1 AF). Brooklyn won three of last four (4-4 SUH).
-- Raptors won eight of last ten games (7-4 HF). Cleveland won its last five games (1-0 U).
-- Memphis won five of last six games (4-4 H). Spurs won eight of last nine games (6-3 last nine A).
-- Rockets won five of their last six games (2-2 AF).
-- Mavericks won 11 of last 13 games (5-4 HF). Phoenix won six of last nine games (2-1 AU).
Cold Teams
-- Thunder lost seven of last nine games (2-2 F). 76ers are 1-17, but they covered five of last six games.
-- Knicks lost their last six games (4-4-1 AU). Hornets lost their last ten games (2-4 F).
-- Lakers lost five of last seven games (5-2 last seven AU). Celtics lost five of their last six games (3-2 F).
-- Minnesota lost 11 of last 13 games (1-3 HU).
-- Miami lost three of last four games (2-3 AU). Milwaukee lost its last three games, but covered five of last six.
-- Orlando lost six of last seven games (9-4 AU). Jazz lost its last seven games, covering two of seven.
-- Sacramento lost its last four games (2-1 HF). Indiana lost its last four road games (7-2 AU).
Series Records
-- Nuggets won eight of last eleven games with Washington.
-- Thunder won their last ten games with Philly (9-1 vs spread).
-- Knicks won three of last four games with Charlotte.
-- Nets won four of last six games with Atlanta.
-- Raptors won four of last five games with Cleveland.
-- Lakers won six of last seven games with Boston.
-- Spurs won nine of last eleven games with Memphis.
-- Rockets won five of last six games with Minnesota.
-- Suns lost 16 of last 20 games with Dallas.
-- Heat won nine of last ten games with Milwaukee.
-- Jazz won their last seven games with Orlando.
-- Pacers won eight of last eleven games with Sacramento.
Totals
-- Last three Denver games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Thunder games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Charlotte games went over total.
-- Seven of last ten Atlanta games went over. Seven of last nine Net tilts stayed under.
-- Four of last five Toronto games went over total.
-- 11 of last 14 Boston games went over total.
-- Under is 8-3 in San Antonio's last eleven games.
-- 14 of 18 Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Dallas games went over total. Six of last eight Suns games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Miami games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Orlando games stayed under.
-- Last four Pacer-King games went over the total.
Back-to-Backs
-- Cavaliers are 2-2 if they played night before.
-- Indiana is 1-3 (2-2 vs spread) if it played night before.
-- New York is 2-1-1 vs spread if it played night before.Comment
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StatFox Super Situations
NBA | DENVER at WASHINGTON
Play On - Road teams (DENVER) after 2 or more consecutive unders, an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG)
54-23 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.1% | 28.7 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at PHILADELPHIA
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a losing record
228-105 since 1997. ( 68.5% | 77.0 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% | -5.7 units )
NBA | CLEVELAND at TORONTO
Play Against - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (TORONTO) off 2 or more consecutive road wins, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )Comment
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Game of the Day: Pac-12 Championship
Arizona Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks (-14.5, 74.5)
Game to be played at neutral site at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California
Oregon will get another shot at Arizona when the No. 3 Ducks head south to face the No. 8 Wildcats in the Pac-12 championship game Friday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. Oregon’s last two losses have come against Arizona, most recently Oct. 2 when the visiting Wildcats toppled the heavily favored Ducks 31-24. Arizona earned a berth in the title game after UCLA lost to Stanford on Friday and the Wildcats beat Arizona State shortly afterward.
Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota has been brilliant this season but likely still remembers his two interceptions in last season’s loss to Arizona, which ended a streak of 12 straight games without getting picked off. He has three interceptions overall in his career against the Wildcats, the most against any team. Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon won’t have his best receiver available early in the game as Samajie Grant won’t start after being cited for DUI last weekend.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE HISTORY: Oregon opened as 13.5-point favorites and have been bet an additional point to the current number of -14.5. The total opened at 72.5 and has moved up two points to sit at 74.5.
INJURY REPORT: Arizona - LB DeAndre Miller (questionable Friday, shoulder), RB Adonis Smith (questionable Friday, concussion), CB Cam Denson (questionable Friday, hip), DL Parker Zellers (questionable Friday, ankle), S Trevor Ermisch (questionable Friday, arm), WR Samajie Grant (out Friday, personal). Oregon - WR Keanon Lowe (probable Friday, undisclosed), TE Evan Baylis (questionable Friday, undisclosed), DL Alex Balducci (questionable Friday, undisclosed), DL Tony Washington (questionable Friday, undisclosed), OL Hroniss Grasu (questionable Friday, leg), RB Thomas Tyner (questionable Friday, ankle).
WEATHER REPORT: It could be a wet one, with a 64 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid 50's and a mild seven mile per hour wind blowing towards the northwest end zone.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "One thing is for sure, Arizona wont be intimidated by Oregon's high octane offense, as the Wildcats have already beat the Ducks in their own backyard earlier this season. Arizona also defeated the Ducks in Tuscon in 2013. Thursday morning we got sharp bet on Ducks -13.5 (buying 1/2 point to -120) so we moved Oregon to current number of -14.5. 63 percent of cash & 65 percent of bets on spread are on Arizona." - Mike Jerome.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Oregon is 0-2 against Arizona over the last two years; the Ducks are 22-1 against everybody else. Arizona won those games by a combined score of 73-40, so it’s not like they were fluky wins. There’s been a major adjustment on the total in this game from the first meeting when the oddsmakers hung an 81.5 Over/Under line. The current total on this game is now a full touchdown less which may prove to be too much of a correction, especially since Oregon's offense is much healthier now than in the earlier meeting this season." - Steve Merril
ABOUT ARIZONA (10-2, 7-2, Pac-12): Solomon seems to be wearing down as his freshman season comes to a close. He hasn’t thrown for more than 250 yards in the last five games after surpassing that mark six times in the first seven games, including 287 passing yards and a touchdown in the first game against the Ducks. While he has been slowing up, freshman running back Nick Wilson has been heating up, rushing for at least 100 yards the last four games and scoring eight touchdowns in the last three.
ABOUT OREGON (11-1, 8-1): With a berth in the first annual College Football Playoff on the line for Oregon, Mariota is expected to get some help at the wide receiver spot as Keanon Lowe is set to return after sitting out the win against Oregon State last week for unknown reasons. Lowe, who missed two games in October with a hamstring injury, is one of six Ducks with at least four touchdown receptions this season. Oregon receiver Devon Allen, the defending NCAA 110 hurdles champion, caught six touchdown passes in the first five games but hasn’t scored since the loss to the Wildcats.
TRENDS:
* Arizona is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
* Oregon is 7-0 ATS in its last seven conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Arizona's last five games overall.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Oregon's last five games versus a team with a winning record.
CONSENSUS: Over 56.18 percent of wagers are backing Arizona +14.5 with 56.9 percent on the over.Comment
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Mighty Quinn
Mighty missed with West Virginia (-8) on Thursday and likes Bowling Green on Friday.
The deficit is 973 sirignanos.Comment
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EZWINNERS
EZ's Plays For Friday
I was on the wrong side of an ass kicking last night with the Bears against the Cowboys. One college basketball selection on my card for Friday. Best of luck!
-EZ
2* (825) Texas Longhorns +11Comment
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Football Crusher
Play of the Day
Bowling Green +6.5 over Northern Illinois
Rest of the Plays
Arizona + Oregon UNDER 74.5Comment
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Hockey Crusher
Play of the Day
Minnesota Wild -130 over Anaheim Ducks
Rest of the Plays
Chicago Blackhawks + Montreal Canadiens OVER 5Comment
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Basketball Crusher
Play of the Day
Wyoming +5 over SMU
Rest of the Plays
Texas +11.5 over Kentucky
Milwaukee Bucks -2 over Miami Heat
Brooklyn Nets +1.5 over Atlanta HawksComment
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Soccer Crusher
Estudiantes LP + Tigre UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in ArgentinaComment
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