12-27-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges

Dec. 27: Duke +7 1/2 Arizona State------------------Sun Bowl
Penn State +2 1/2 Boston College--------Pinstripe Bowl
Penn State--Boston College UNDER 40
So. Carolina +3 1/2 Miami, Fla.------------Independence Bowl
Virginia Tech +2 1/2 Cincinnati------------Military Bowl

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob


Miami-Florida (-1.5) 3-Stars at -2.5 or less, 2-Stars at -3.


As most of you know I’ve been anti-South Carolina since before the season started (I had 2-Stars on Under 9.5 wins) and I started playing on Miami in week 7 and went 3-1 on my Best Bets on the Hurricanes, with the only loss being a bit unlucky (a 4 point loss as a 3 point dog to Florida State). What prompted those mid-season Best Bets (easy wins against Cincy, Virginia Tech and North Carolina prior to the tough loss to FSU) was extremely negative variance in 3rd down efficiency that kept the Hurricanes from looking as good as they actually were those first 6 games. Through week 6 Miami was averaging 6.6 yards per play and allowing just 4.9 yppl against a good schedule of FBS opponents (Louisville, Arkansas State, Nebraska, Duke, and Georgia Tech) that would combine to outgain an average FBS team by 0.5 yppl. However, Miami won only 2 of those 5 games against FBS opponents while being outscored by an average margin of 8.1 points, which made the Hurricanes appear to be a pretty mediocre team. I knew that was far from the truth, as they had actually been 11.6 points better than an average team from the line of scrimmage. The discrepancy between how good Miami actually was and how they appeared to be based on scoring margin was partially due to a -3 in turnovers but was mostly due to extremely negative 3rd down variance. Miami, despite being a very good offensive team overall, had converted on just 15 of 63 (24%) 3rd downs through the first 6 weeks of the season, which would be low even for the worst offensive teams in the nation, and was extremely low for an offense that was as good as Miami’s offense. That negative variance in 3rd down conversions through 6 games supplied us with the line value to tab Miami for Best Bets in their next 4 games. The Hurricanes beat Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina by an average of 24 points before blowing their 23-7 lead against Florida State by playing the second half not to lose rather than being aggressive and confident like they were in the early stages of that game. As you know, Miami lost a heartbreaker 26-30 despite outgaining the Seminoles by 73 yards and that defeat crushed the Hurricanes’ growing spirit. I passed on making Miami a Best Bet the next week against Virginia, as it was a huge letdown coming off the disappointing loss to the Seminoles, and Canes lost that game to the Cavs by 17 points and then lost by 12 points to Pitt in their finale. Perhaps Miami lost some of their enthusiasm after the deflating loss to FSU but those two seemingly bad losses weren’t actually that bad given that Miami outgained Virginia and Pitt by an average of 380 yard at 6.0 yppl to 354 yards at 5.8 yppl. What those losses did do was provide us with the line value on Miami for this game that was starting to fade after their mid-season surge.

Miami may appear to be an inconsistent team but the Hurricanes’ line of scrimmage rating, which is a rating based on a combination of total yards and yards per play for and against and adjusted for site and quality of opponent, was very consistent. Miami’s worst line of scrimmage (LOS) rating this season was +7.6 points in their opener against Louisville and their average LOS rating is +14.7 points while their variance in LOS ratings is among the lowest in the nation. Where Miami is inconsistent is turning their yardage advantage into a points advantage. Early in the season the problem was due to 3rd down conversions (24% through 6 games) but the Hurricanes have converted on 45% of their 3rd downs in their last 6 games, which is more in line with what would be expected from an offense as good as their offense is. The problem in their final two games was negative red zone variance, as Miami averaged just 2.0 points per red zone opportunity and allowed 5.8 points per red zone opportunity in their losses to Virginia and Pitt, which explains how the Canes could lose by an average of 14.5 points in those two games despite outplaying those teams from the line of scrimmage. Miami’s red zone efficiency prior to their last 2 games was 4.7 points per RZ on offense and 4.8 points per RZ allowed on defense, so the extreme red zone variance was just a two week thing that made Miami once again look much worse than they actually are (the last two games put Miami’s season red zone scoring to just 4.4 points per RZ on offense and 5.0 points per RZ on defense). I see no reason why Miami would have trouble on 3rd downs or with red zone offense or defense in this game given how good they are overall from the line of scrimmage.

How good is Miami from the line of scrimmage? Miami has averaged 436 yards and 6.9 yards per play on offense while facing a schedule of FBS opponents that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Miami’s defense has yielded just 358 yards at 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average FBS defense. That’s an overall compensated yards per play differential of +2.2 yppl, which ranks 9th in the nation. South Carolina, meanwhile, has a compensated yards per play differential of just +0.4 yppl as the offensively strong Gamecocks (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average attack) have struggled this season due to a horrible defense that is 0.6 yppl worse than average (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). South Carolina has run more offensive plays than their opponents because they tend to give up big plays (and thus fewer long drives) and overall the Gamecocks’ line of scrimmage rating is +6.8 points. South Carolina is expected to run 9 more plays than Miami in this game, as the Hurricanes should hit on a few big plays against a defense that tends to give them up, but overall the Hurricanes have been 8 points better from the line of scrimmage, 0.6 points better in special teams and 0.9 points better in projected turnovers. Add it all up and Miami would be favored to win this game by 9 ½ points with neutral variance. Of course, there is a reasonable chance that Miami’s negative differential in 3rd down conversions and red zone scoring averages is not due to variance. However, that chance is factored into my model’s projection of Miami having a 57.5% chance of covering based solely on the math model. That percentage is based on the historical performance of my model and the math model plays (games with a significant difference from the line) have been particularly good in bowl games when choosing a team that is favored by 4 or less or getting points (those are 35-18 ATS since 2004, the first year of my current math model). In addition to the math, the Hurricanes also apply to a 73-29-3 ATS bowl situation that plays on teams to rebound from an upset loss in their regular season finale and teams in that situation that have lost 3 or more games in a row are 9-1 ATS with the only spread loss by just ½ a point. In general, teams that lost their final 3 regular season games are 60% ATS in bowl games, including 21-8 ATS when not favored by 7 points or more and facing a team that has 3 or more losses on the season. Miami has had time to refocus themselves after their disappointing end to the season and the Hurricanes are a much better team than South Carolina, who they are likely to beat even if the Gamecocks also have a renewed enthusiasm for this game. There is another situation that plays on good defensive teams in bowls when facing a bad defensive team and that angle is 64-32-1 ATS, which also applies to Miami. I’ll take Miami in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ points or less, for 2-Stars at -3 and for 1-Star up to -4 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob


I’ll take Virginia Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and I have no opinion on the total



Virginia Tech is no longer a national power but the Hokies still play great defense and taking the defensively superior underdog in bowl games is a good recipe for success. That’s especially the case if the good defensive team is otherwise mediocre, as is certainly the case with Virginia Tech. Bowl underdogs that have allowed less than 26.0 points per game are 40-21 ATS against a favorite that has allowed more than 26.0 points per game. You don’t get as much value with those teams if they have a really good record (just 5-6 with teams that lost 2 or fewer regular season games) and teams that are better than average offensively tend to get some respect from the odds makers and the public too. What you really want is a defensively superior underdog that is worse than average offensively, as that 40-21 ATS record is 16-4 ATS if the dog has lost 3 or more regular season games and averages 26 points or less per game. That’s Virginia Tech and Central Michigan this season and my math model likes both of those teams.

Virginia Tech’s shining moment this season was their 35-21 win at Ohio State in which they held the explosive Buckeyes’ attack to just 342 yards at 5.0 yards per play. I’ve heard plenty of so called experts dismiss that win with the explanation that Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett hadn’t yet gotten comfortable in the offense, which is why he had a bad game against the Hokies. I don’t see that being the case at all given that Barrett averaged 13.6 yards per pass play the week before playing Virginia Tech and he averaged 10.1 yppp the week after playing the Hokies - and then averaged 8.4 yppp or more in the 3 games after that. Virginia Tech’s good defensive effort against Ohio State was about Virginia Tech not about Ohio State’s quarterback not being in good form. The Hokies’ defense can make a lot of quarterbacks look like they’re in bad form, as that unit allowed just 4.8 yards per pass play for the season while facing a lot of good quarterbacks (the quarterbacks they faced would average 6.6 yppp against an average defensive team). The Hokies will face another good quarterback in this game, as Cincinnati Gunner Kiel averaged 7.9 yppp this season while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Kiel had mixed results against better than average defensive teams, as he had a great game against Ohio State but played poorly against Miami (until late in the game when the Canes had a big lead) and against Temple while having a decent game against Memphis. Overall, Kiel’s compensated numbers against good defenses were about the same as his overall rating and my math model projects 5.8 yards per pass play for Kiel in this game. That projection could even be a bit high given that the Hokies allowed 5.8 yppp or more just twice all season (to ECU and the option attack of Geogia Tech). Cincinnati should have decent success running the ball (the math projects 5.4 yards per rushing play for the Bearcats), as Cincy’s rushing attack went from bad to better than average once freshman Mike Boone started getting the bulk of the carries in week 9. Virginia Tech’s run defense was a bit worse than average for the season (5.4 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yprp) but that’s only because they couldn’t stop either Miami or Boston College when leading tackler LB Chase Williams was injured. The Hokies were 0.5 yprp worse than average in the 4 games that Williams missed but he returned in the finale against Virginia and registered 12 tackles in helping limit the Cavaliers to just 76 yards at 2.5 yprp. Virginia Tech is 0.3 yprp better than average with Williams but Cincinnati has a bit of an advantage running against that defense with Boone as the featured back. Overall, Cincinnati is projected to gain 373 yards at 5.6 yppl in this game.

Virginia Tech’s problem in recent years has been a stagnant offense and this year’s edition managed just 5.0 yards per play despite facing teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack. That attack is a bit better with RB Marshawn Williams out for the season. Williams was horrible, averaging just 3.8 ypr, and J.C. Coleman has done a good job since taking over the position, as he averaged 104 yards at 5.6 ypr over the final 3 games. The rushing attack should work well against a sub-par Cincy defense that allowed 6.0 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average defense). That number was skewed by the 363 yards at 11.7 yprp that the Bearcats allowed to Miami but the math model projects a solid 5.2 yprp for the Hokies in this game even after adjusting for that outlier. Cincy is also worse than average defending the pass (6.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.8 yppp) but Virginia Tech quarterback Michael Brewer is 1.1 yppp worse than average and is expected to average just 5.6 yppp in this game. Overall the Hokies are projected to gain 423 yards at 5.4 yppl against Cincinnati’s leaky defense that allowed 6.2 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit).

While Cincinnati is expected to average slightly more yards per play (5.6 yppl to 5.4 yppl) the Hokies should run more plays, as their defense doesn’t allow many long drives. In fact, Virginia Tech’s defense allowed just 4.6 plays per drive, which is the lowest in the nation and the reason the Hokies were +8.3 in play differential. The extra plays that Virginia Tech is expected to have more than makes up for the difference in projected yards per play and my math model favors Virginia Tech by 3 points in this game (with a total of 53 ½ points). In addition to the line and the 16-4 ATS defensive dog angle the Bearcats apply to a negative 5-32 ATS bowl situation that is based on their 7 game win streak. I’ll take Virginia Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and I have no opinion on the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob


Strong Opinion – Duke (+7 ½) 29 Arizona State 31



I can’t imagine Arizona State being too excited about a minor bowl game when they were at one point ranked 7th in the college football playoff rankings before losing to Oregon State in week 12 and then blew their chance for the Pac-12 Championship game and a major bowl game by losing to rival Arizona in their final regular season game. I actually have some evidence that Arizona State may not be 100% invested in preparing for this game, as team’s from the power 5 conferences (plus Notre Dame and including the old Big 8) are just 9-34-3 ATS as favorites of more than 7 points in pre-New Year’s bowl games after losing their final regular season game (or conference championship game). These are generally teams that had higher goals than to be playing a much weaker team in a bowl such as the Sun Bowl. Arizona State was in the exact same situation last year and lost 23-37 as a 14 ½ point favorite against Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl. Duke also benefited from this situation last year when they nearly upset Texas A&M as a double-digit dog before losing 48-52 to Johnny Manziel and the Aggies on New Year’s Eve.


There is also some line value in favor of Duke in this game, as the Sun Devils aren’t as good with Taylor Kelly at quarterback. Kelly had some good numbers early in the season against 3 horrible defensive teams and the Sun Devils’ attack got much better when Kelly injured his foot and Mike Bercovici took over the starting role for 3 games. Bercovici was great in those 3 starts, averaging 7.7 yards per pass play against 3 good defensive teams (UCLA, USC and Stanford) that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall Bercovici was 1.3 yppp better than average on his 194 pass plays this season, averaging 6.6 yppp (excluding the 46 yard Hail Mary pass against USC) against teams that would allow just 5.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Kelly, meanwhile, has averaged just 6.7 yppp while facing teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback and he was 0.4 yppp worse than average in 6 games against Pac 12 competition after returning from his injury. The rushing attack also struggled in those games, as teams realized that Kelly wasn’t much of a threat through the air and could focus more on defending the run. Arizona’s offense was 0.2 yards per play worse than average over those last 6 games with Kelly back as the starting quarterback (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) and I rate the Sun Devils’ attack at just 0.1 yppl better than average using Kelly’s numbers for the entire season. Duke’s defense is 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Arizona State doesn’t have much of an edge with their offense and the Sun Devils are projected to gain 462 yards at 5.9 yards per play in this game.

Arizona State isn’t good defensively either, as the Sun Devils allowed 5.8 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team. Duke is a sub-par offensive team this season (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) but their disadvantage is not that significant and the Blue Devils are projected to gain 396 yards at 5.3 yppl. Overall, Arizona State has a 0.6 yppl advantage but the Blue Devils have excellent special teams and turnovers are projected pretty evenly. The math model favors Arizona State by just 3 ½ points (and 60 total points) and the Sun Devils have been overrated ever since Kelly returned to the lineup. Kelly has started 9 games this season and the 4 games in which the Sun Devils covered with Kelly at quarterback were all games in which they were +2 or more in turnover margin. In other words, Arizona has needed some good fortune to cover the spread with Kelly at quarterback and they’ll probably need some turnover luck to win by more than 7 points in this game too. I’ll consider Duke a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 65 points or higher (a lean under at less than 65), as the combination of ASU’s offense being worse with Kelly at quarterback and the 11 non-offensive touchdowns in Arizona State games (which is very high) has the total higher than it should be.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookieshunter (NCAA Football)

#227 Virginia Tech +3 vs #228 (2*)

#230 Arizona -7 vs Duke (3*)

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Inside the pressbox / phil steele

ncaaf best bets

arizona st.

Penn st.

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MADDUX SPORTS (Bowl Games)

Duke +7.5
Virginia Tech +3

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BEN BURNS FOOTBALL

BLUE CHIP TOTAL - mia fla/s.caro over

PERSONAL FAVORITE - arizona st

MAIN EVENT - nebraska

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Chuck Luck

10 units Miami Florida. (Cfb)

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Oskeim Bowl Game

3* - Miami Florida -3 (-130)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside the pressbox / phil steele

ncaaf best bets

arizona st.

Penn st.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookieshunter (NCAA Football)

#227 Virginia Tech +3 vs #228 (2*)

#230 Arizona -7 vs Duke (3*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PREDICTION MACHINE (Bowl Games)

230 ARIST vs. DUKE 67.5 ♦ 57.6 Under 61% (Top Total Play)

228 VA TECH vs CIN 3.5 4.2 ♦ 60.5% (Top Side Play)

236 USC vs NEB -6 10.3 ♦ 56.1% (Half-Bet Play)

231 MIA-FL vs SC -1 5 ♦ 55.5% (Light Play)

234 PSU vs BC 2.5 0.8 ♦ 54.9% (Light Play)

[golden contender]

GC: Bowl Total

Saturday Triple Perfect Bowl Dog of the Year head lines a Powerful Bowl card with 3 Big Bowl system plays all cashing over 90% long term. In NCAAB Action its a Big 6* 100% Revenge play and 27-0 NBA Power system side, NBA 2-0 last night. Football ranked #1 overall for a 7th straight week. Free Bowl total below.


On Saturday the free College Bowl total is on the Under in the Pinstripe Bowl. Rotations numbers 233/234 at 4:30 eastern. Boston College and Penn. St do battle here tonight in what looks to be a defensive battle. The last 3 in this series have stayed under and both teams ave under indicators that apply to this game. Penn. St scores and allows just 15 points in non home games and has stayed under in 4 of 5 vs ACC Teams, 3 of 3 in December games and 3 of the last 4 off 2 or more losses. Boston College allows just 17 points on the road and has stayed under in 7 of 10 on Saturday and 7 of 9 v Big 10 schools. Both teams allow under 95 yards per game on the ground and the Eagles are tied for first in the nation in fumbles allowed with just 3. The Lions have one of the best defenses in the country. Look for this one to go under the total. On Saturday a Tremendous Bowl and Hoops card is up led by the Triple Perfect Dog of the year + 3 More Big Bowls system winners with systems dating to 1980. In College Hoops the lead play is a 6* Undefeated Revenge Play as well as another Big 27-0 system play in the NBA Which went 2-0 last night. Jump on now and put the power of this cutting edge data On your side. For the free play take The Under in the Boston College vs Penn. St game. GC