12-31-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Phoenix at Oklahoma City

The Suns (18-15 SU) head to Oklahoma City tonight to face a Thunder team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games versus a team with a winning SU record. Phoenix is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+7 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31 Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: Sacramento at Boston (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 115.594; Boston 111.517 Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 4; 207 Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1 1/2; 211 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-1 1/2); Under

Game 703-704: Miami at Indiana (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 114.460; Indiana 123.783 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 9 1/2; 194 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 188 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-4); Over

Game 705-706: New York at LA Clippers (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 109.973; LA Clippers 120.989 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 11; 201 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 13; 206 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New York (+13); Under

Game 707-708: Milwaukee at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 119.649; Cleveland 119.519 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 209 Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 201 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+6 1/2); Over

Game 709-710: New Orleans at San Antonio (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 117.427; San Antonio 123.302 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 204 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 200 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3 1/2); Over

Game 711-712: Charlotte at Houston (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 113.021; Houston 127.578 Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 14 1/2; 194 Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 12; 198 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-12); Under

Game 713-714: Phoenix at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 120.325; Oklahoma City 124.949 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4 1/2; 217 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 212 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+7 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph
Trophy Play TCU -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

kelso w/ratings

100 arizona
15 tcu
10 gt

50 illinois st - ncaab

[Can'tPickAWinner]

We picked up a few units yesterday with our 4 unit pick on Notre Dame covering and even winning outright as 8 point dogs. Maryland couldn't cover the 14 points for us in the late game, but another profitable day with our bowl picks.
Now things get really fun as we are on New Years Eve bowls and then day bowls tomorrow. This email will have today's picks (including a 4 unit play), and then I will probably send out tomorrow's picks later today. Happy New Years!
4 UNIT = Boise State @ Arizona - BOISE STATE +3 (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 4.00 units to win 3.81 units)
2 UNIT = Mississippi @ TCU - MISSISSIPPI +3.5 (-105) *EARLY
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.91 units)
2 UNIT = Georgia Tech @ Mississippi State - MISSISSIPPI ST -6.5 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)
Cheers,
Kevin

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Locksmith Customer Service



Dec 30 at 9:32 PM
Happy New Year To All!!! Enjoy the Plays!!


NCAAB:
Duke -22.5 -110 1* (3:00 Eastern)

NCAAF:

Ole Miss +3 -110 1* (12:30 Eastern)

Boise State +3 -110 3* (4:00 Eastern)

Mississippi State -7 -110 3* (8:00 Eastern)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

4* Arizona -3/ (going to -2.5) Boise St 4 pm ESPN (Fiesta)
3* UNDER 61.5 ORANGE BOWL 8pm ESPN (Ga Tech/Miss St)
Bowl Top Opinion:
Mississippi +3.5/+4 TCU - 12:30 pm Espn (Chick-Fil-A)
Reg Opinion:
Marquee SINGLE - UNDER 56 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl (Mississippi/TCU) 12:30 pm
Had to pickem:
Marquee SINGLE - UNDER 68 Fiesta Bowl (Boise St/Arizona) 4 pm
Mississippi St -6 Georgia Tech - 8 pm Espn (Orange)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS Lock Club
Football
4* Boise +3.5
on the 1st
4* Baylor -2.5
4* FSU +8.5


ATS Lock Club B-Ball
5* UNLV +6
4* Loyola-Chic -9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob :
Strong Opinion – Mississippi (+3 ½) 31 Tcu 28

Wed Dec-31-2014 at 09:30 AM Pacific Rotation: 249 Over/Under 56.5

There is some question as to how excited TCU is to be playing in any bowl that is not a part of the national playoff, as the Horned Frogs were certainly disappointed to drop from #3 to #6 in the final playoff rankings. I like Ole’ Miss here regardless of whether TCU was properly motivated during preparations for this game, as taking great defensive teams like Mississippi as an underdog in a bowl game has paid dividends over the years. Teams that have allowed less than 15 points per game (less than 14.5 specifically) are 60-36 ATS as underdogs in bowl games, including 45-22 ATS if they’re facing a team with a winning pointspread record. A 40-12 ATS subset of that angle actually applies to this game and my math model favors Ole’ Miss by 1 point, so there is no question that the Rebels are the right side in this game.

Mississippi also made a run at the national playoffs but they enter this game on a high after beating rival Mississippi State and they had no illusions of making the playoffs after their second loss and are reportedly excited to be playing such a highly ranked team as TCU. Ole’ Miss is a very good team that ranked 3rd in my compensated yards per play differential (TCU is 7th), as the Rebels rate at 1.1 yards per play better than average offensively with quarterback Bo Wallace in the game (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while their stingy defense has been 1.4 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average team). That defense matches up pretty evenly with a very potent TCU attack that has been 1.5 yppl better than average this season (7.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). TCU is very good running the ball and throwing the ball and Ole’ Miss is very good defending the run and defending the pass, so this should be interesting to watch. TCU has faced only one elite defense (Texas) and they were limited to a modest 5.7 yards per play in that game while averaging 6.05 yppl against 4 defenses that are in the good but not great category (Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia and Kansas State). Overall, TCU’s offense was 1.2 yppl better than average against those 5 good defensive units that they faced, so they weren’t quite as good when challenged. Mississippi’s schedule was full of good offensive teams and only Auburn gave them trouble (Auburn has a tendency to play better against better defenses) while the Rebels held Alabama, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State to a combined 5.2 yppl. Overall, Ole’ Miss was 1.4 yppl better than average against those elite offensive teams, which was the same as their overall rating. The injury to leading receiver WR Laquon Treadwell is a non-factor, as Treadwell’s 8.4 yards per pass intended for him is well below the 9.8 yards per target that the next 4 wide receivers combine to average and the Ole’ Miss pass attack had a higher rating in the two games since Treadwell’s injury (although I made no adjustment at all). The math model projects 434 yards at 5.7 yppl for TCU in this game and it would be 0.3 yppl lower if they play at the level they’ve played against other good defensive teams, although there wasn’t strong enough statistical evidenced for me to make that adjustment in the math model.

While the TCU offense and Ole’ Miss defense are evenly matched the Rebels good attack (+1.1 yppl) has an edge over a TCU defense that’s 0.8 yppl better than average (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl). Like their offense, TCU’s defense was also relatively worse against good teams, as the Horned Frogs faced 5 good offensive teams (Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Kansas State) and they allowed 6.3 yppl in those games, which is only 0.4 yppl better than what those offensive units would combine to average against an average defensive team – and is 0.4 yppl worse than their overall rating. TCU held their 6 mediocre or worse than average offensive opponents to just 9.8 points per game but they allowed 34.2 points to the 5 better than average offensive teams they faced. The correlation coefficient between the yards per pass play that TCU allowed as a function of the level of the opposing pass offense is incredibly strong (r-squared of 0.92) and that equation would project TCU’s defense to be 0.4 yards per pass and 0.2 yppl worse than their overall defensive rating. There was enough evidence to make that adjustment and the math projects 460 yards at 6.2 yppl for Mississippi in this game.

Overall the Rebels have a solid advantage from the line of scrimmage of 26 yards and 0.5 yppl but TCU has a 1.5 points edge in special teams and is projected to have a small edge in turnovers as well. Add it all up and I get Mississippi by 1 points with a total of 62 points. I’ve predicted a slightly lower total since this game applies to a 24-8 under situation that goes under one of the teams has scored 170 points or more over their previous 4 games, which TCU did. The time off tends to cool down those hot offenses, which leads to the under and in this case hopefully strengthens are chances with Ole’ Miss. I’ll consider Mississippi a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more and a lean at less than +3 and I have no opinion on the total.
**Boise State (+4) 35 Arizona 29

Wed Dec-31-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 251 Over/Under 69.5

Arizona is playing this game in their home state but the Wildcats don’t have any other advantages and I’m not sure the proximity to home will be that much of an advantage given how Boise State’s fans tend to travel well for bowl games. The Broncos and their fans are excited about being the non-power conference team to get invited to a major bowl and I expect Boise to win this game straight up against an overrated Arizona team that got stomped by Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship game. Arizona also beat Oregon in Eugene but that impressive win was one of just 2 really impressive games that the Wildcats played this season (the other being a 42-10 win at Utah). The rest of the year was pretty mediocre and the Cats’ 10-3 record is due in large part to their good fortune in close games. The Wildcats are 6-1 in games decided by 7 points or less and they are more like an 8-5 or 7-6 team than a 10-3 team. That mediocrity shows in their stats, as Arizona only outgained their opponents by 7 total yards per game and 5.8 yards per play to 5.7 yppl. Arizona’s schedule was only 4.9 points tougher than an average FBS team and the Wildcats are only 5.4 points better than an average team from the line of scrimmage and only 7 points better than average overall (that includes special teams and projected turnovers). That rating is a few points lower than their rating based purely on points because their point margin was influenced by some turnover luck (+3 in defensive touchdowns off turnovers) and a Hail Mary pass to beat Cal (which I don’t include in my stats because I consider Hail Mary passes random).

Boise State is better than Arizona on both sides of the ball, especially offensively. The Broncos averaged 501 total yards and 6.7 yards per play this season while facing a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack. The Broncos are well balanced with Jay Ajayi (1689 yards and 25 rushing touchdowns) leading a ground attack that averages 237 yards and 5.8 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp) while quarterback Grant Hedrick takes care of the aerial attack with 71% completions and 7.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback). The passing game is even better now that WR Dallas Burroughs no longer gets snaps and sophomore Thomas Sperbeck is a featured receiver. Burroughs averaged just 4.3 yards on the 28 passes directed at him in the first half of the season and a mid-season injury to senior WR Matt Miller was a blessing in disguise, as it put Sperbeck in the lineup. Sperbeck leads the Broncos in receiving yards despite not playing the first 4 games of the season and his 12.0 yards per pass thrown to him also leads the team. Boise’s pass attack has been 0.2 yppp better since week 5 when Sperbeck starting playing and Boise State’s offense currently rates at 1.0 yppl better than average, which gives the Broncos a big advantage over an Arizona defense that is only 0.2 yppl better than average (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). My math model projects 513 yards at 6.4 yppl for Boise State in this game. Boise State has averaged 39.8 points per game on an average of 501 yards and they’re projected to score 35 points in this game.

Arizona’s offense tallies a lot of yards because they run a lot of plays but the Wildcats are just 0.1 yppl better than average, averaging a modest 5.8 yards per play while facing teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. I decided not to include the last two games since an injured foot hindered the mobility of quarterback Anu Solomon, which made him more prone to getting sacked (8 sacks the last two games) and kept him from running effectively. Solomon should be pretty close to 100% for this game but the Wildcats’ are still just 0.2 yppl better than average offensively if I exclude those final two games. Boise State’s defense was just 0.1 yppl better than average overall (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl) but that average was skewed by the 627 yards at 9.7 yppl in their game against the New Mexico triple-option. My model adjusts for outliers and Boise’s defense rates at 0.3 yppl better than average after that adjustment. Boise also struggled defending the run against the Air Force option and while the Broncos were just barely better than average defending the run overall they were very good against the run when not facing a team that runs the triple-option. In those 11 games the Broncos allowed just 4.2 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team. Boise allowed less than 4.0 yprp in 7 of 11 games against non-option teams so their run defense is actually very good despite their overall mediocre numbers that were skewed by their two games against option offenses. That math projects 414 yards at 5.5 yppl for Arizona in this game, which equates to about 29 points after factoring in the Wildcats’ 2.3 points advantage in special teams (projected turnovers are even).

Boise State has a projected advantage of 99 total yards at 0.9 yards per play and the Broncos appear to be the better team. I didn’t give any points to Arizona for playing in their home state since there isn’t any compelling evidence that playing in your home state (and not your actual home stadium) is an advantage. I’ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 1-Star as a dog of less than 3 points. The math also projects just 63 ½ total points and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 69 points or higher.
Mississippi State (-7) 38 Georgia Tech 28

Wed Dec-31-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 254 Over/Under 61.5

Georgia Tech enters this game on a 6 game spread winning streak but that actually is reason to not like the Yellow Jackets here, since teams that are on a 5 game or more covering run are just 11-22-1 ATS in bowl games as underdogs, including 2-11-1 ATS if their opponent lost to the spread in the previous game. Mississippi State lost their final regular season game to rival Ole’ Miss, which also knocked them out of the National Championship playoffs, so this game could be a considered a disappointment for the Bulldogs and any lack of focus while preparing for the option attack could lead to some issues on game day. However, Mississippi State actually applies to a 23-1-2 ATS bowl favorite off a loss angle which puts into question whether this is a letdown game for the Bulldogs.

Georgia Tech’s option is tough to stop, as the Yellow Jackets have averaged 37 points on 470 yards at 6.7 yards per play (against teams that would combine to allow just 5.4 yppl to an average team). Mississippi’s defense is nothing special, as the Bulldogs rate at 0.4 yppl better than average with a run defense that’s 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average. That’s only 0.2 yprp better than the average rating of the teams that the Yellow Jackets faced this season so I expect them to run the ball pretty well in this game. I did adjust the pass offense downwards for the injury to top WR DeAndre Smelter, who averaged 11.5 yards for every pass targeted at him. The rest of the wide receivers combined to average 7.6 yards per target so Smelter should be missed – although Georgia Tech threw the ball fine without him against Florida State. That math projects 433 yards at 6.2 yards per play for Georgia Tech in this game.

Mississippi State’s offense is a well-balanced and potent attack that can beat an opponent by running the ball (255 yards at 5.8 yards per rushing play) or throwing the ball (254 yards per game at 7.7 yards per pass play). Starting quarterback Dak Prescott leads the charge with his running and his passing (7.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and the Bulldogs are 1.5 yards per play better than average when he’s in the game (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppl to an average team). I don’t see how a sub-par Georgia Tech defense can stop that attack from moving the ball at will against them. The Yellow Jackets have allowed 5.8 yards per rushing play, 6.9 yards per pass play and 6.4 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. Mississippi State has had their way offensively against mediocre or bad defensive teams, scoring 49 points against Southern Miss, 47 points against UAB, 35 points against South Alabama, 48 points against Texas A&M, 45 points against Kentucky, and 51 points against Vanderbilt. That’s an average of 46 points per game. Mississippi State probably won’t score that many points in this game since they’ll have fewer possessions due to Georgia Tech’s clock eating offense but my math model projects 508 yards at 7.7 yppl and 38.8 points for the Bulldogs.

Overall the math favors Mississippi State by 10 ½ points with a total of 67 points. The total is predicted to be higher than expected because it assumes that the teams will score and allow points at efficiencies corresponding to their overall level of offense and defense. However, while Mississippi State allowed a sub-par 418 yards on defense the Bulldogs only gave up 19.7 points per game because they were really good when teams got close to the goal line, allowing just 3.3 points per red zone opportunity. That’s below even the most extreme part of the normal range and a lot of that is simply variance. I actually don’t see the Bulldogs having that much success when Georgia Tech’s option attack gets near the goal line, as the Yellow Jackets were on the high end of the offensive points per red zone spectrum at 5.1 points per RZ. I haven’t studied it but I also think how a team performs in red zone defense overall has little bearing on the red zone defense against an option team since the defense you play near the goal line against an option team isn’t really any different than the defense you’d play against them in the middle of the field. I’ll assume normal red zone scoring from both teams and I’ll lean Over the total and I’ll lean with Mississippi State at -7 points or less.
Auburn (-6 ½) 33 Wisconsin 26

Thu Jan-01-2015 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 256 Over/Under 63.5

Another head coach has left Wisconsin and once again it is athletic director and former head coach Barry Alvarez that will lead the team through the bowl season. Alvarez did the same thing at the end of the 2012 season after Bret Bielema left for Arkansas and the Badgers played reasonably well in a 14-20 loss as a 5 ½ point dog to Stanford in the Rose Bowl. But, how do the Badgers rebound from the 0-59 beating they were giving by Ohio State, especially when they lost their head coach shortly afterwards? Mediocre teams can often bounce back from a bad beating at the end of the regular season but better teams have struggled with a loss of swagger after a resounding beat down. In fact, bowl teams with 4 or fewer losses on the season are just 19-40-2 ATS if lost their previous game by 24 points or more, including 13-37-2 ATS they lost to a conference opponent (0-9-1 ATS getting less than 10 points in their bowl after losing by 24 or more in their conference championship game). I do have a 7-30 ATS situation that applies to Auburn, so both teams are in bad situations. With that being the case let’s take a look at the numbers.

Auburn’s offense was once again among the best in the nation, averaging 6.8 yards per play against a schedule that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team, although that unit would be worse if star WR D’Haquille Williams does not play. Williams is listed as questionable with an undisclosed illness and his 10.7 yards per pass thrown to him would be tough to replace. In fact, Williams missed 3 games late in the season (weeks 11 through 13) and the Auburn pass attack averaged a modest 6.4 yards per pass play, which is well below the 8.3 yppp that they averaged for the season. It wasn’t the competition that contributed to the drop, as the teams they faced in those 3 weeks were a bit worse than the average pass defenses that the Tigers faced over the course of the season. Williams isn’t accountable for a 1.9 yppp drop but replacing his numbers with the numbers from the rest of the receivers would results in an expected decrease of 0.7 yppp, which is worth 1.8 points in the case of Auburn. For now I’ll assume that Williams is out and the math projects the Tigers with 422 yards at 6.4 yppl against a normally very good Wisconsin defense that was 0.8 yppl better than average for the season despite the 10.0 yards per play they allowed to Ohio State.

Wisconsin’s offense is all about RB Melvin Gordon, who has run for 2336 yards at 7.6 ypr and 26 touchdowns. Williams also had a bad game against Ohio State and perhaps the absence of their starting center had something to do with that. However, one offensive lineman is not responsible for a team that averages 7.4 yards per rushing play to suddenly average only 3.0 yprp, as the Badgers did against the Buckeyes, and I’ll chalk it up to a bad day. Wisconsin C Dan Voltz is questionable for this game but reports are that he’ll probably play. The Badgers are 1.4 yards per play better than average offensively and are projected to gain 407 yards at 6.2 yppl against an Auburn defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average (and 0.6 yards per rushing play better than average).

The projected yards are pretty close but Auburn has an advantage in projected turnovers that is worth about 1.8 points and the Tigers are significantly better in special teams. Overall the math favors Auburn by 6.5 points (with a total of 58.9 points) if Williams doesn’t play and by 8.3 points (and 60.5 total points) if Williams is 100%. I’ll call for a 7 point win and I have no opinion on the side and I’ll lean Under 63 points or higher.
*UNDER (71 ½) - Michigan State (+2 ½) 33 Baylor 30

Thu Jan-01-2015 at 09:30 AM Pacific Rotation: 257 Over/Under 72.0

Baylor was campaigning hard to get a spot in the playoffs and even hired a PR firm to make their case. However, Ohio State’s romp over Wisconsin trumped Baylor’s solid win over Kansas State and the Bears are left with disappointment and potentially may not have been fully motivated while preparing for this game. Michigan State, meanwhile, is excited about playing a highly ranked Baylor team and the Spartans match up pretty well given their good defense and a quarterback that can exploit Baylor’s weakness in the secondary.

Michigan State is known as being a good defensive team but the Spartans are very good offensively this season, averaging 6.8 yards per play when starting quarterback Connor Cook is in the game (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). The Spartans run the ball very well (242 yards at 5.6 yards per rushing play) and Cook has one of the highest compensated pass efficiency ratings in the nation with 8.6 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. Baylor should defend the run pretty well (the Bears are 1.0 yprp better than average against the run) but Baylor’s starting defense has allowed an average of 6.9 yards per pass play in their last 10 games (I excluded their first two games against an impotent SMU offense and against FCS teams Northwestern State) to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.9 yppp against an average defensive team. Baylor dominated weaker passing teams Iowa State and Texas and they had the fortune of playing Oklahoma with big play WR Shepard out. However, the Bears mostly had problems with good quarterbacks and allowed 7.7 yards per pass play or more in 5 of their last 6 games and allowed 9.0 yppp or more in each of their final 3 games. My math model projects Cook to average 8.9 yppp in this game and the fact that the rushing attack isn’t likely to be as successful as usual (4.5 yprp predicted) should mean a few more pass plays than normal from Cook, which is a positive. That likelihood is built into the model, which projects 470 yards at 6.5 yppl for Michigan State in this game.

While I fully expect Michigan State to move the ball well through the air the matchup between a good Baylor pass attack and a good Michigan State pass defense is less predictable. Bryce Petty struggled in the opener against SMU but I tossed that game out (just as I tossed out the Bears’ defensive effort in that game) and Petty’s numbers from week 3 on were stellar, as he threw for 8.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. Petty will be up against a Michigan State pass defense that is the second best that they’ve seen this season (MSU allowed 4.9 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defense). The best pass defense that Baylor faced was Texas and Petty completed only 7 of 22 passes and averaged just 3.7 yppp in that game. The next best pass defense that Petty faced was West Virginia and he also struggled in that game (16 of 36 for 4.8 yppp). Petty did play well in some games against good pass defenses but not against the best two that he faced and overall there was a strong tendency to play relatively worse against better defensive teams and relatively better against bad defensive teams (like the 12.2 yppp he averaged against Buffalo). The linear equation to predict Petty’s compensated yppp as a function of the opposing pass defense has a slope of 1.93, which means he was 1.93 yppp better/worse for every yard worse/better than average in pass defense his opponent was. A quarterback that plays at the same relative level regardless of opposition would have a slope of 1 and most quarterbacks are near that slope, so there is strong evidence that Petty’s tendency to play relatively worse against better defensive teams is more than just variance. Inserting Michigan State’s defensive pass rating into that equation would predict Petty to average 6.64 yppp in this game, which is 0.50 yppp worse than the math projects. However, Michigan State’s defense has the same issue that Petty has, as the Spartans were relatively worse against better passing teams, as they allowed 9.7 yppp to Oregon and Ohio State. The Spartans also had some good games against good quarterbacks but the linear equation projecting their pass defense as a function of the opposing quarterback projects the Spartans to allow 7.62 yppp to a quarterback with Petty’s overall rating, which is 0.48 yppp higher than the math model prediction. So, Petty could be predicted to be anywhere from 6.6 yppp to 7.6 yppp in this game and ultimately I’ll stick with the math model prediction of 7.1 yppp – although there is obviously a lot of variance in that prediction. Overall Baylor is projected to gain 440 yards at 5.9 yppl against Michigan State’s defense.

Michigan State has the overall edge from a yards per play perspective, which isn’t surprising given that they’re offense rates slightly higher than Baylor’s offense (+1.3 yppl to +1.2 yppl) and the Spartans have a much better defense, and the math favors Michigan State by 3 ½ points (with a total of 62 ½ points). There is a lot of variance in that prediction, however, given how inconsistent these teams have been against better competition and my alternate model favors Baylor by 1 ½ points, which represents the biggest difference in the prediction of the two models of any bowl game this season. Even the model that favors Baylor still favors Michigan State to cover, however, and Baylor’s level of enthusiasm for this game is certainly in question. I like Michigan State here but if the line is less than +3 points then the money line would be a better option, especially given the higher than normal variance associated with these two teams (the higher the variance the more likely an upset will occur, or a blowout). I’ll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at either +3 or more or on the money line if the line you’re getting is less than +3.

The Under appears to be the better play here, as my model predicts far fewer plays than other models might. Most models would probably look at Michigan State’s total plays per game (134.7) and Baylor’s total plays per game (160.2 in the 10 games I’m using) and add those and subtract the league average of 140.2 total plays in regulation. That would give you 154.7 total points. However, Baylor faced a lot of other up-tempo teams that combine to average 6.5 more total plays from scrimmage than average (and Michigan State’s opponents combine to average 1.1 fewer total plays from scrimmage). A simple compensation based on those numbers would get the predicted plays down to 149.3 plays (154.7 – 6.5 + 1.1). My model predicts just 146.8 total plays, as my model takes into account Michigan State’s average of 35.24 minutes of time of possession. Baylor averages 29.64 minutes of TOP per game and they run their offense at a fast pace when they have the ball. However, the Bears are projected to have the ball just 24.36 minutes in this game while the clock eating slow paced Spartans have it for 35.64 minutes. Baylor is expected to have the ball for 5.28 fewer minutes than their average and the difference between their average plays per minute and Michigan State’s average plays per minute in those 5.28 minutes is pretty significant and is why my model projects fewer plays than most other models probably do. I am concerned about the high variance in the predicted passing numbers for each quarterback, which could lead to higher scoring, but if I assume Petty will average at the high end of the spectrum and that Baylor’s defense will continue to struggle against good quarterbacks as they did for the second half of the season (which would project Cook at 10.2 yppp in this game) I still only get 68 total points if each team plays at their normal pace on offense and Michigan State possesses the ball for around 35 minutes as they normally do. So, even in an extreme case where both quarterbacks play better than expected and the teams combine for 6.6 yards per play I still have the total going under 70 points.

The other reason the total is high is because a points based model would predict a game over 70 points but both of these teams had combined red zone efficiencies that were really high and contributed to each team’s higher than expected total points averages. Baylor’s offensive points per red zone opportunity was 5.2 points per RZ, which is what a team with their overall offensive rating should average. However, Baylor’s defense allows 5.2 points per RZ, which is 0.6 points higher than projected based on their overall defensive stats. Michigan State, meanwhile, is also projected to be at 5.2 points per RZ on offense but the Spartans are at 5.4 points per RZ and their defense, which is really good overall, has allowed teams to average 5.4 points per RZ opportunity, which is extremely high for a defense that is as good as their defense is overall (they should allow 4.4 points per RZ). The red zone variance of these two teams accounts for a total of 5.0 points per game, which has also created some value on the under. I also get a total of 71 ½ points if the teams combine for 154 plays and continue to have extremely high red zone scoring averages but I don’t see that many plays being run and the red zone scoring averages should regress towards what is expected. I can still envision both quarterbacks having more success than my model predicts, so I won’t make this as big a play as the math would suggest. I’ll go UNDER 69 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet.
Missouri (-5) 24 Minnesota 20

Thu Jan-01-2015 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 259 Over/Under 47.5

There isn’t much exciting or interesting to say about this game so I’ll keep it short. Missouri somehow got to the SEC Championship game for a 2nd straight year with a mediocre offense that averaged only 5.4 yards per play. That attack struggled in the middle of the season when injuries hit their very thin corps of wide receivers. And, when I say thin I really mean thin. Missouri has 3 wide receivers that see the field, as Sasser, Hunt, and White combined for 229 targets while the rest of the wide receivers combined for just 35 passes thrown to them all season, and most of those were when either Hunt or White were out with injury. Hunt and White both missed the week 5 South Carolina game and quarterback Maty Mauk averaged only 2.9 yards per pass play in that game against a weak South Carolina pass defense. White missed the next game against Georgia in which Mauk averaged only 3.0 yppp and he missed week 10 against Kentucky (4.2 yppp for Mauk). Normally, having one receiver out wouldn’t matter much, especially given that White averaged a mediocre 8.0 yards per target, but the backups combine to average a pathetic 3.1 yards per target. The Missouri game, in which Hunt was also out was predictably bad for Mauk, as Hunt leads the team at 10.4 yards per target and those ill-equipped backups were filling the void of two starters. The other receivers don’t play unless one of the top 3 are out, and Mauk’s yards per pass play rating would go up 0.3 yppp if Hunt and White played every game. Even with that adjustment Missouri’s mediocre attack is still projected to gain just 357 yards at 5.5 yppl in this game against a solid Minnesota defense that has allowed 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team.

Minnesota’s offense is 0.1 yppl better than average with starting quarterback Mitch Leidner in the game (he missed week 4 against San Jose State), averaging 5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. That attack isn’t good enough to do much damage against a very good Missouri defense that has allowed just 4.8 yppl this season despite facing teams that would average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The Gophers are expected to gain just 304 yards at 4.6 yppl and their great special teams doesn’t give them the big advantage that is does against most teams, as Missouri also has very good special teams (although Minnesota is better in that regard). Overall the math favors Missouri by just 4 points with a total of 43 points and I’ll lean Under 47 points and I have no opinion on the side

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals 4 You NCAA Bowls Selections for Wednesday, December 31st
2014 College Bowls Scoreboard-Scorcher of the Year!!!!!
Boise State/Arizona over 67 1/2

You Win or we'll email you Thursday's Early Bowl Report Free of Charge!!!

NCAA Bowls Best Bets
Mississippi/TCU over 56
Georgia Tech/Mississippi State under 61 1/2

December's Eastern Conference Day-Game Total of the Month!!!!!
Miami/Indiana under 188 1/2

You Win or we'll email you Thursday's NBA Report Free of Charge!!!

NBA Best Bets
New York/LA Clippers under 205 1/2
Milwaukee/Cleveland over 202
Charlotte/Houston under 198
Phoenix/Oklahoma City over 212

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LT LOCK

Ole Miss +3-
Boise St. +3
Miss St. -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor Original NBA Picks - EARLY GAMES

System Play:
Indiana -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive 600 Mississippi

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive

600% bowl goy - ole miss
300% - miss st

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chuck Luck
Tcu, Boise, Mississippi State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi
3 Ole Miss