1-3-15

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Philly Godfather

Under 129 Penn St.

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Frankie Diamonds Moves

106 Under 38 Arz-Car (VS-3)
103 Baltimore +3.5 (-120) (VS-4)

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Diamond Dog Sports

NBA

#504: Timberwolves: +2.0 (-110) (A)

NCAAB

#538: Depaul: +10.0 (-110) (1*)

#568: James Madison: -4.0 (-110) (0.5*)

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NFAC $500:
106 CAROLINA -6
NFAC:
103 OVER 44 (-120) BAL/PIT ($800) Buy-Back/Middle...w/$400 now on OVER

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OC Dooley:“2 UNIT” PRIMETIME COLLEGE BASKETBALL NATIONAL-TV INTANGIBLE (Clemson +7’ at home versus North Carolina in an 8:15 pm eastern tipoff): Due to the pro football playoffs this is the first night in recent memory that the “main” ESPN network is not telecast a Bowl postseason contest from the gridiron. While there is little interest in this “hoops” matchup from a national level there is actually some intrigue for which I am taking advantage. The last time these pair of Atlantic Coast Conference foes met was in late January of 2014 when North Carolina “limped” in with a 1-4 league record (worst league start with Roy Williams as the head coach which included a loss at Syracuse where the offense put only 45 points on the scoreboard. A year ago one can argue that Clemson was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time as they suffered an 80-61 setback versus an “angry” opponent. That triumph extended an all-time NCAA record streak as North Carolina defeated the Tigers for the 57^th consecutive time on Tobacco Road. However tonight’s rematch is being played AT Clemson and are facing the Tar Heels who have been sloppy (16 turnovers committed) spanning the past five game. In that Monday “close” win North Carolina scored only 37 points in the second half

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Diamond Dog Sports
NFL

#105: Cardinals: +6.5 (+105) - Shop or Buy Half Point to +7.0 (-115) (1*)

#105/106: Cardinals/Panthers: Under 38.0 (-110) (1*)

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Marco D'Angelo

5% Baltimore Ravens

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Bill Hilton- Gameday

Arizona +6'

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PhillyGodFather

over 151 xavier/depaul
u 117 uconn
u 129 psu

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Chris James Sports

East Carolina +7
Cardinals +6
Steelers -3
Under Steelers 44.5

George Washington -5.5

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By Mike O'Connor :




I have just the one Best Bet this week (3-stars on Carolina -6.5) but I have attached the rest of my analysis on the Wild Card games below.

Have a great weekend.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***CAROLINA (-6.5) 28 Arizona 12

Sat Jan-03-2015 at 01:35 PM Pacific Rotation: 106 Over/Under 37.5

The Cardinals have been a resilient team in battling though injuries primarily on defense but one injury in particular really derailed their chances of making any noise in the playoffs this season. Arizona has really missed quarterback Carson Palmer as they are a well below average team without him in the lineup. Without Palmer, the Cardinals are 5-5 SU and just 2-4 SU on the road and adjusting statistically for his absence, I favor the Panthers by 9.6 points. The Arizona offense was very good with Palmer in the line-up but without him the Arizona passing attack has generated just 190 yards per game at 5.6 yps to teams that allow 224 yards at 6.2 yps. Overall, without Palmer, the Cardinals are 6.8 points worse as a team as his absence has had an effect not only on the offense, but also the defense as it likely has felt more pressure to compensate for his loss. Using season long numbers, the Cardinals defense is below average both against the run and the pass and have allowed 368 total yards at 5.9 yppl to teams that gain 350 yards at 5.6 yppl overall. If we take a step further and look at games where Palmer hasn’t played we see that Arizona is allowing 5.0 ypr to teams that gain 4.6 ypr and have been terrible against the pass in allowing 7.4 yps to teams that average 6.4 yps. This Cardinals defense has performed well due to a #3 ranked red zone defense (43.9%) and allowing a 38% 3rd down conversion rate (#12 ranking). Those rankings aren’t likely to continue on a team with a poor defensive statistical profile like the Cardinals.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have been a team on the rise as after making changes along their offensive line and in their secondary, they have performed much better. After inserting Andrew Norwell, an undrafted rookie out of Ohio State at left guard and Trai Turner, a third-round pick out of LSU at right guard, the Panthers have developed more chemistry and have had much more punch in the running game. In fact, since Week 11 the Panthers have averaged 152 rushing yards at 5.2 ypr and last week put up 194 rushing yards at 5.5 ypr in their 34-3 win against the Falcons. What makes this an appealing match-up for the Panthers is the fact that the Cardinals have really struggled against mobile quarterbacks recently (allowing Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson to rush for 151 yards on 13 carries for a 11.6 ypr the past two weeks) while Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has rushed for an average of 62 yards at 6.3 ypr his past four games. The past two games the Cardinals have allowed 267 rushing yards to Seattle and 209 rushing yards last week against the 49ers. I have a hard time seeing the Cardinals defense being able to contain a Panthers rushing attack that is really starting to hit its stride.

Arizona has been a bit lucky this season as well, having fumbled 16 times on offense while losing just 5 while their opponents have fumbled 13 times and have lost 7. This game features two teams going in opposite directions and makes for a favorable match-up for Carolina as the Panthers have been playing their best football of the season in areas where Arizona has been playing their worst. The Cardinals haven’t had much of a rush game on offense and will face a Panthers team that has been excellent defending the run recently, allowing just 87 yards at 3.8 ypr since Week 9. In addition, the Carolina pass rush has really picked it up with 23 sacks in their last 7 games while Ryan Lindley has been sacked 6 times the past two games. My adjusted model favors the Panthers by 9.6 points in this game and Carolina qualifies in a 18-4 playoff situation that is 11-0 in the Wild Card round. In addition, Carolina benefits from a negative 4-14 playoff situation that plays against the Cardinals. I think that there has been some smoke and mirrors that have contributed to the Cardinals success this year that is unsustainable and will catch up with them here. This is a good match-up for the Panthers and I expect a decisive Carolina victory. In this round of the playoffs, the winner of the game has a 96-11-3 ATS record (since 1983) and since 2008 that record is 19-0-1 ATS. If you can pick the winner of the game chances are good that you have the ATS winner as well. Take Carolina -6.5 for 3-stars or for 2-stars at no more than -7.
PITTSBURGH (-3) 27 Baltimore 23

Sat Jan-03-2015 at 05:15 PM Pacific Rotation: 104 Over/Under 46.5

The Ravens have not been impressive the past three weeks, barely beating the Jaguars and Browns while losing badly to the Texans with Case Keenum at quarterback. They are 0-3 ATS in that span and limp into the playoffs by virtue of their win last week in combination with a Chargers loss in Kansas City. Joe Flacco has not been impressive in particular, averaging 163 yards on 54.2% completions and has thrown three interceptions. The bigger picture shows a pass offense that has been better than average, however, averaging 239 yards at 6.7 yps against teams that allow 240 yards at 6.5 yps on the season. Making things easier for their passing offense has been a very good ground game featuring Justin Forsett who has piled up 1,266 yards at 5.4 ypr and an offensive line that has played well. The Ravens have had some issues recently with injuries along the offensive line however (very good right tackle Rick Wagner going on IR last week and left tackle Eugene Monroe now out with an ankle injury). This has caused some reshuffling and an offensive line that had been such a strength this season will likely not be as effective on the road in a hostile environment without a lot of continuity and against a Dick LeBeau defense that will apply creative pressure via the zone-blitz. Facing a Steelers defense that has come alive with nine sacks the past two weeks and have held their last four opponents to an average of 17.5 points per game, the Ravens offense could have a hard time getting traction.

Meanwhile the Steelers recent form has been just the opposite, winning eight out of their last ten and winning and covering their last four. The have had a balanced offense that I have rated as the #1 offense in the NFL driven primarily by their very good passing attack (averaging 302 yards at 7.6 yps against teams that allow 240 yards at 6.3 yps). They’ll match up against a Ravens secondary that was exploited the last time these teams played, prompting the Ravens to cut several players and make changes in the secondary. Baltimore will be more prepared to not get burned the way they did last game and won’t have running back Le’Veon Bell to worry about as he was ruled out on Friday (hyperextended knee). Dri Archer and Josh Harris, the backup running backs, have 19 NFL carries between them and recently signed Ben Tate was cut by two teams this season for a reason. With the absence of Bell (who accounted for 77.7% of the Steelers rushing offense), the Steelers will likely attack the Ravens via the pass where they have a big advantage as long as they can keep Roethlisberger on his feet. Overall, the Ravens have played well defensively (allowing 5.2 yppl to teams that average 5.6 yppl) but have been fortunate as well as they are second best in the league (42.6%) defending the red zone.

From a fundamental perspective, the Ravens have the advantage on the ground with a good rushing attack and run defense. The addition of DT Haloti Ngata (back after serving a four game suspension) combined with the loss of Le’Veon Bell only strengthens the Ravens ability to shut down the Steelers running game. As a result of their ground prowess, the Ravens qualify in several fundamental rushing and statistical match-up situations that are 682-504-40 (11-8 in playoffs), 222-106-14 (5-4 in playoffs), and 142-72-5 (1-1 in playoffs). In addition, the Steelers defense, while improved recently, is still well below average and could have problems stopping a balanced Ravens attack (averaging 366 yards at 5.9 yppl and above average in both the run and the pass game). I do worry about the Ravens offensive ability to continue producing at a high level due to the problems that they’re having on the offensive line, however.

With the Ravens recent poor play creating the perception of a team on the decline combined with the Steelers recent surge, we have a buy low – sell high proposition and the Ravens benefit from a negative 5-13 playoff situation with an 0-5 subset that plays against the Steelers that is based on that premise. Pittsburgh has really played to the level of their competition and have played well against the better teams on their schedule while the Ravens have not been good in those same spots. The Steelers were 6-1 SU and ATS against teams with winning records this season, while Baltimore was 1-6 SU and ATS. In addition, the Steelers benefit from a negative 19-40 playoff situation that works against the Ravens and my model favors the Steelers by 7.2 points. The bottom line is that there’s a lot of conflict on the situations and the numbers and as a result it’s a pass for me. I’d lean slightly to the Steelers minus the points if I had to make a choice but it’s a weak lean.
INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) 26 Cincinnati 20

Sun Jan-04-2015 at 10:05 AM Pacific Rotation: 108 Over/Under 49.5

Indianapolis hasn’t played real well down the stretch and they could have their hands full in this game against a good Bengals team that will be looking for revenge for their embarrassing 0-27 loss in Indy back in Week 7 while attempting to exercise their playoff demons (0-3 SU with Andy Dalton). In fact, teams that have been blown out in a regular season meeting by 21 or more points are just 27-37 SU when they get a rematch in the playoffs according to The Elias Sports Bureau. Cincinnati isn’t the same team that the Colts faced back then with a more stable defense that has performed much better against the run (allowing 82 rushing yards per game at 3.8 ypr their last seven games) and a ground game that has picked it up behind the running of Jeremy Hill (1,124 yards at 5.1 ypr with most of that compiled after given the lion’s share of the workload beginning in Week 9).

The big question on offense for the Bengals in this game is in regards to AJ Green. As of Friday, it didn’t look good as he was listed as doubtful after not practicing on Friday. Dalton already has a very thin receiving group with Dane Sanzenbacher and rookie James Wright out for Sunday’s game and with tight end Jermaine Gresham nursing an injured back and questionable, the Bengals passing game could really be in trouble if Green can’t suit up. Quarterback Andy Dalton can certainly use all the help he can get with playoff struggles that are well documented (0-3 SU with one touchdown and six interceptions) and in their previous meeting this season, Green didn’t play and Dalton was held to just 126 passing yards at 3.3 yps. Without reliable receiving weapons and a shaky quarterback, the Colts defense will focus on stopping the run and will commit to doing whatever it takes to not let Jeremy Hill beat them. If the Bengals can’t keep them honest with the pass due to their skeleton receiving crew, the Colts should have success. Since getting blasted by the Patriots on the ground back in Week 11, the Colts have buckled down and allowed just 3.9 ypr the past six games. Overall, the Colts defense is about average from an adjusted efficiency perspective but they have performed well on third down (2nd best with a 33% opponent conversion rate).

On the other side, I expect that Indianapolis will play to their strengths offensively and likely implement a pass first approach as a result. Their running game has been below average since losing running back Ahmad Bradshaw in week 11 against the Patriots and they’ll run enough to keep the Bengals honest but not much more in a bad ground match-up. Trent Richardson only averages 3.3 ypr so I’d expect to see more of Dan Herron (4.5 ypr) in this game but the offensive line has been shuffled all year and will start their 11th different combination of the season after placing right tackle Gosder Cherilus on season-ending injured reserve this week. Indianapolis will have to rely on their very good passing attack (averaging 306 yards at 7.1 yps against teams that allow 243 yards at 6.4 yps) but they’ll face a good pass defending team in the Bengals that allows 6.2 yps to teams that gain 6.6 yps on average. The key for the Bengals will be to generate a pass rush but they have had difficulty in that area this season. If they can’t get any pressure on Luck, it could be a long day for the Bengals defense.

Luck has been very good at home in his career (17-6 ATS) while Dalton has struggled in the spotlight. Not just in primetime games or the postseason where he is 3-10 SU. He has struggled against good competition on the road overall in his career (teams >.500) with a 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS record. The Colts qualify in a good 18-4 playoff situation that is 11-0 in the Wild Card round and my model favors them in this spot by 6.8 points but Cincinnati qualifies in a 143-69-7 statistical match-up situation that is 3-0 in the playoffs. Bottom line is I think that it’s going to be difficult for the Bengals to keep pace without their receivers as the Colts stack the box and focus on the run, making scoring difficult. On the other side, if the Bengals can’t generate a pass rush, it’s going to be tough to stop Andrew Luck and the Indy offense. Plus, the Indy special teams have a decided advantage. It’s a pass for me with a lean to the Colts.
DALLAS (-6.5) 29 Detroit 18

Sun Jan-04-2015 at 01:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 102 Over/Under 48.5

The Lions have not been very good this season away from the friendly confines of Ford Field as they are 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS away from home, losing by an average score of 15.6 – 19.6. When looking just at playoff teams that they have faced on the road (Carolina, Arizona, New England and Green Bay), the Lions are 0-4 SU and ATS, losing by an average score of 10.5 -25.5 and have scored less than ten points in three of those contests. Despite having talent, their offense has been a real problem this year and has consistently underperformed. Overall, the Lions are averaging 5.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.7 yppl and have been below average both the running and passing the ball. Detroit hasn’t had much of a ground game this season #30 ranking (averaging 90 yards at 3.8 ypr against teams that allow 116 yards at 4.5 ypr) but they have been better lately. They’ll face a Dallas rush defense that is about average overall (allowing 4.3 ypr to teams that gain 4.3 ypr) but has played really well the past four weeks in allowing an average of 54 rush yards at 3.1 ypr. Detroit will need to get their ground game going to help open up a good match-up against a Dallas pass defense that has allowed 6.9 yps against teams that gain 6.4 yps. What concerns me here for Detroit is that Stafford has been terrible on the road this season, averaging 205 passing yards at 5.4 yps against teams that allow 240 yards at 6.6 yps. In addition, the Lions are 0-17 on the road against teams that finished the season with a winning record in games that Stafford has started in his career (including postseason).

On the other side, the Cowboys have my #5 rated offense that has been very good both on the ground (+.4 ypr) and in the air (+.8 yps). They face a tough match-up against a Lions defense that has also been very good (ranked #2 and allowing 301 yards at 4.9 yppl against teams that gain 346 yards at 5.5 yppl) but haven’t been quite the same on the road this season in allowing 5.2 ypr to teams that gain 5.6 yppl. The key match-up in this game is the Cowboys #2 ranked rush offense taking on the Lions #1 rush defense and whomever wins that war could very well win this game. Overall, the Cowboys offense has been on fire recently and have put up an average of 41 points on offense the last four games. With the Lions struggles on the road both this season and historically, I have a hard time seeing their offense being able to keep up.

There is a coaching angle that probably extends both ways in this game to some degree as former Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan (2009-2013 with Detroit and now play caller and passing game coordinator for the Cowboys) may have some good insights into how to best defend not only Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, but also how to best attack the Lions defensive personnel. On the other side, while the Lions may have some familiarity having faced Linehan’s offense in practice the past five years, this Cowboys system is not quite the same - it’s a mix of Jason Garrett’s offense with some of Linehan’s wrinkles. Overall I think it’s a slight advantage for the Cowboys.

I like the Cowboys in this game as my model favors them by 9.4 points and they benefit from several different playoff situations that play against the Lions that are 27-49-1, 19-40-1, and 8-24. Dallas also qualifies in a small 5-1 situation that plays on certain teams with better pass offenses but the Cowboys qualify in a negative 5-13 playoff situation with a 0-5 subset that plays against them. I think that Detroit has been a bit overrated this season, playing a soft schedule overall and producing a 1-4 SU and ATS record against >.500 competition (their only win was at home against the Packers in Week 3 when the Packers were struggling early). Dallas has fared better with a 3-2 SU and ATS record against >.500 competition with one of their losses against the Cardinals with Brandon Weeden at quarterback. In this round of the playoffs, the winner of the game has a 96-11-3 ATS record (since 1983) and since 2008 that record is 19-0-1 ATS. If you can pick the winner of the game chances are good that you have the ATS winner as well. I like the Cowboys to win and cover but it’s not strong enough for me to pull the trigger on.

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Rooster
589 Air Force+2.5
631 Austin Peay+17
653 Southern Utah+11.5

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Power Play Wins

POD

NFL: Baltimore Ravens +3

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Cajun Sports

4.5* Baltimore +3
4.5* Under Baltimore 46
4* Carolina -5

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Tony Apps

20* Steelers Under
10* Arizona
10* Steelers ML

15* Maryland Pending

15* Bulls Under