1-3-15

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NFAC
273) EAST CAROLINA +7.5 (-120) (nfac $500)
104) UNDER 46 BAL/PIT (nfac $400)
•Nfl Sat - #103) BALTIMORE +3.5 (-120) (nfac $500)

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PREDICTION MACHINE ATS
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick%
106 4:20 PM @CAR ARI -5 7.3 56.8
103 8:15 PM BAL @ PIT 3.5 -1.0 55.9

SIDES
Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick%
104 8:15 PM BAL @ PIT 47 51.1 Over 56.5
106 4:20 PM ARI @ CAR 38 39.5 Over 53.1

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Docs



4 Unit Play. #274 Take East Carolina Pirates +7 over Florida Gators (Birmingham Bowl, Saturday January 3rd 1 pm ESPN)

The Gators have an interim coach for this game, and I just do not see have being able to wave the magic wand and get this team motivated for this game. East Carolina made some noise this season in college football, and they are solid on both sides of the football. The same cannot be said for Florida as they have one of the worst offenses in the country. East Carolina has had to wait a month to get the taste that miracle victory by UCF out of their system, and expect them to come hunger and jump out early on Thursday. East Carolina is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss in their previous game.



4 Unit Play. #104 Take Pittsburgh Steelers -3 over Baltimore Ravens (Saturday 8:20 pm NBC)

Three teams from the AFC North made the playoffs this season and they are all very equal. I just believe Pittsburgh playing at home will be the difference and allow them to win this game by 7 to 10 points. The Steelers have been playing outstanding football at the moment winning 4 straight games and they scored 43 points and won by 20 points the last time they faced Baltimore. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Pittsburgh is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.

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Allen Eastman


BIRMINGHAM BOWL

5-Unit Play. Take #274 Florida (-7) over East Carolina (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 3)

AND

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 56.0 East Carolina vs. Florida (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 3)

I think that the Gators are on a mission in this game. They fired their coach. Jim McElwain is waiting in the wings. But for a lot of coaches and a lot of upperclassmen they want to end their careers at Florida with a win. East Carolina is a tough team. They have a high-scoring offense. But Florida will be motivated to shut their passing game down and get a statement win. The young Gators want to prove to the new coaching staff coming in that they can play. ECU had some big wins early in the year against teams like Virginia Tech and North Carolina. But they closed the year going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. Florida comes into this bowl game on a 4-1 ATS run and they could be 5-0 SU in those games but had close losses to South Carolina and Florida State. Florida also had a close loss this season to LSU or their season could be a lot different. ECU has lost three of its last five games and they lost a close one in their conference championship game. I think that this team is down and I think Florida has more to play for. Lay the points.



7-Unit Play. Take #104 Pittsburgh (-3) over Baltimore (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 3)

This play is from my NFL 411 System. I have won huge NFL 411 System plays in each of the past three weeks with the Steelers. I am not going to stop now! My numbers love this Pittsburgh team. And they are underrated. I think that this team has the goods to win the AFC. The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with the Ravens and they are 4-1 ATS the last five times these two teams have played in Heinz Field. The Ravens really struggled to beat the Browns last week even though the Ravens had everything to play for. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games while the Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and are red hot. Pittsburgh has won 8 of 10 games overall and they are a real threat in the AFC. The home team has won four straight in this rivalry series and I think that trend will continue. Look for the Steelers to win this one and advance.


3-Unit Play. Take #105 Arizona (+6.5) over Carolina (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 3)

I will take the underdog in this one. Carolina has won four straight games. But those wins came against teams that did not make the playoffs. The Panthers don't have a win against a team that finished the season over .500 since they beat Detroit back in Week 2. Arizona is struggling. But I thought that this spread should've been 3.5. I think there is value with the underdog so I will take the points in this one.

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marc lawrence phone plays

BALT

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mti teasers
10pts
Arizona
Baltimore
indy

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Norm Hitzges
NFL

TRIPLE PLAY: Dallas -7 Detroit

SINGLE PLAYS:

Indianapolis -4 Cincinnati
Baltimore +3 Pittsburgh
Arizona +5 1/2 Carolina
Dallas-Detroit UNDER 48 1/2

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Sheep

ECU +7.5 $500

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Jack jones. 20* parlay. Steelers and under

15* lions

Birmingham Bowl

15* East Carolina

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Randal The Handle
Ravens 10-6 at Steelers 11-5


LINE: PITTSBURGH by 3
Have you seen the Ravens lately? If not, here’s a quick summary: Struggled to beat the visiting 3-13 Jaguars, lost badly at Houston against a 3rd string quarterback and just last week, Baltimore exerted far too much energy to scrape out a win over a useless Cleveland team.
Not exactly playoff form and it can’t simply be attributed as a temporary hiccup. The Ravens just don’t look very good. While its secondary hasn’t been tested, that unit has undergone a slew of changes after being torched by none other than Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger in early November. Big Ben had a huge game that day going 25-of-37 for 340 yards and six touchdowns, leading to a 43-23 shellacking of its rival. That bombardment forced Baltimore to cut some cornerbacks and to sign a Detroit castoff plus an undrafted free agent. Those two players have since been replaced due to injury. Having to go this deep into the well has to be disconcerting knowing these subs will try to slow down the Steelers’ top-ranked offence.
Of course, there is worry that Pittsburgh’s ace RB Le’Veon Bell may be scratched for this one after hurting his knee last week but we’re not overly concerned as the Steelers will rely heavily on its potent passing game against Baltimore’s 27th-ranked secondary. WR Antonio Brown just gets better each week and stronger defences than this one have been unable to slow down the outstanding receiver.
Some people have faith in Baltimore as a playoff team, much of it stemming from an improbable Super Bowl win a couple of seasons ago. That might explain the light pointspread.
However, the Ravens have not fared well here, losing three previous post-season games at Pittsburgh. And now they’re running into a hot Steelers club that has won four straight, including a pair against 10-5-1 Cincinnati, the same Bengals that just knocked off the No. 2-seeded Broncos. Pittsburgh has also defeated the fourth, fifth and sixth seeded playoff teams during the course of this season.
Historically, these two have done battle in close and physical games. That was when little separated the pair and when both clubs were known for having strong defences. Neither can make that claim at the moment and given the strengths of the offensives that each will face, Pittsburgh appears to have a decisive edge for this one.
TAKING: STEELERS -3

Cardinals 11-5 at Panthers 7-8-1
LINE: CAROLINA by 6½

Many are high on the Panthers right now as they miraculously claimed the NFC South by winning all four December games and being rewarded with a first-round home playoff contest.

While it’s a nice Cinderella story, we’re highly skeptical that a team which defeated three dregs within its division, all of whom ranked poorly on defence, namely the Saints (31st), Falcons (32nd), Bucs (25th) and the deteriorated Browns (23rd) should merit this type of consideration.
Carolina was 3-8-1 a month ago. November saw it lose all five of its games, three against some stiffer competition and a pair to the aforementioned Saints and Falcons.
This absurd pointspread is predicated on Arizona’s QB situation and nothing else. The Cardinals are an 11-5 team, residing in one of football’s best divisions. Their body of work includes games against Denver, K.C, San Diego, Philadelphia, San Fran twice, Seattle twice, Dallas and Detroit, none of them being losing teams.
The Arizona defence held the Chargers, Cowboys, Giants, 49ers, Lions and Eagles to 20 or fewer points. The Panthers went through a five-game stretch in which they allowed 174 points, an average of 34.8 per game. Granted, the Cards have an issue at QB as third-stringer Ryan Lindley is no Carson Palmer. He’s not even Drew Stanton but Lindley has been seasoned recently after taking on Seattle and San Francisco. Most QBs can be excused for not scoring against that pair.
The Panthers had Cam Newton on the field for all but one game this year yet were outscored 339-374. The Cards allowed just 299 points on the season, a full 75 points less than this day’s opponent.
Let’s also not forget what a great preparation coach Bruce Arians is. His Cardinals have been solid for two seasons now and especially effective in the underdog role, hitting at a 6-3 clip both this season and last.
It should also be noted that this year’s only failed covers occurred in Denver and against Seattle, both times.
Carolina has covered twice this season as a favourite but, in both instances, it was less than a two-point pick. In recent ‘must win’ games, it was favoured by 3½ over Tampa and by six over Cleveland, yet failed to cover in either. There’s very little in Carolina’s 2014 DNA that says it covers here.
TAKING: CARDINALS +6½

Bengals 10-5-1 at Colts 11-5

LINE: INDIANAPOLIS by 3
This may come down to which team you trust less, despite each club’s respectable regular-season record.
The Colts have been known to beat up on losing teams but faltering when facing winners. Indy did defeat some .500-plus teams this season, but that was back in October when it went on a three-game run, knocking off the Ravens, Texans and Bengals. We can’t quite classify those as signature wins. When facing the Patriots, Broncos and Steelers this season, the Colts dropped all three by a combined 124-78.
However, Cincinnati is not categorized among those top teams. That was evident when the Bengals played here earlier this season and were shredded to the tune of 27-0 in a game that saw Andrew Luck and his offence gain 506 yards compared to Cinci’s paltry 135 yards on the day. We don’t expect the Bengals to be as inept this time around, but they will need a monstrous effort to reduce such a disparity.
Frankly, we’d be surprised to see it happen. Luck and receiver T.Y. Hilton have performed well in this type of setting and the Bengals’ suspect secondary could have its hands full with that dangerous duo.
While the AFC North featured three teams that made the playoffs, we’re not sure how good the division really is. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Baltimore might have misleading records after soft schedules saw the trio go 18-5-1 combined against the dreadful NFC South and the poor AFC South. To illustrate the ease of facing those two divisions, Dallas, Philadelphia and Indianapolis were a combined 16-0 against them.
Nor can we ignore Cincinnati’s ineptitude in the playoffs. Firstly, there is coach Marvin Lewis, who is 0-5 in the post-season since taking over this squad in 2003.
Secondly is QB Andy Dalton, the ashamed owner of an 0-3 mark in the playoffs which includes just one touchdown pass compared to six interceptions. It also won’t help if Cincinnati’s most dynamic offensive player, WR A.J. Green, has to sit this one out after suffering a concussion last week. Green is also dealing with some arm and shoulder issues, even if he passes league protocol for the concussion and is allowed to play. Tough to see Cinci ending its playoff skid here against this capable host.
TAKING: COLTS -3


Lions 11-5 at Cowboys 12-4

LINE: DALLAS by 6½
Bucking the Cowboys is not the popular way to go as this Dallas offence has been in a zone, winning six of its final seven games and scoring a ton of points along the way. But as we’ve said many times before, this is not a popularity contest. This is about finding value and we believe it is being offered in this one.
It’s rare to be taking a near touchdown when you have the stronger defence as presented here. Detroit’s ‘D’ is legit. So much attention is given to the Lions’ underachieving offence that their strong stop unit gets overlooked. It is second overall defensively, barely behind Seattle and have allowed the second fewest yards, the second fewest points and was No. 1 in stopping the run.
It would be foolish to think that the Lions can completely shut down Dallas’ high-flying offence but it’s not an unreasonable expectation to slow it down enough to stay within this pointspread.
While the Cowboys pulled off an unlikely win up in Seattle, they scored 23 points in doing so. Keep Dallas in the 20s here makes a cover very attainable.
On the other side of the ball, Dallas has been able to mask a mediocre defence by scoring all those points and controlling the flow of games with the stellar play of RB DeMarco Murray. What happens if Detroit’s strong ground-stoppers are successful in slowing down Murray and the Cowboys have to change course? Can the Dallas coaching staff adapt on the fly?
Also, it’s not like the Detroit offence is void of talent. Matthew Stafford could find a rhythm with stud WR Calvin Johnson, complemented by receiver Golden Tate and RB Reggie Bush. Let’s not forget that Stafford threw for 488 yards against the Cowboys just one year ago in a 31-30 shootout.
Dallas has made things look easy lately and, while we don’t want to detract too much from its recent success, its past seven games had just one playoff team on the docket. We also can’t ignore Dallas’ mediocre play on this field where Jason Garrett’s group went 4-4 this season, losing to non-playoff teams like Washington, San Francsico and Philadelphia.
It is playoff time and bettors often forget that defence usually trumps offence. We’re comfortable going that route for this one.
TAKING: LIONS +6½

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Today's NFL Picks

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

The Ravens open the playoffs at Pittsburgh on Saturday and come into the contest with a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 playoff games. Baltimore is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 3 Time Posted: 2:00 p.m. EST (12/29)

Game 105-106: Arizona at Carolina (4:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 131.587; Carolina 133.186 Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: Carolina by 4 1/2; 38 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4 1/2); Over

Game 103-104: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 133.335; Pittsburgh 133.382 Dunkel Line: Even; 50 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 47 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3 1/2); Over

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Norm Hitzges
NFL

TRIPLE PLAY: Dallas -7 Detroit

SINGLE PLAYS:

Indianapolis -4 Cincinnati
Baltimore +3 Pittsburgh
Arizona +5 1/2 Carolina
Dallas-Detroit UNDER 48 1/2

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SB PROFESSOR

NFL

Baltimore Ravens +3*

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Steve Merrill

Balt/Pitt over