1-4-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prediction Machine
Opp Line Margin Pick% $ Calc
108 1:05 PM @IND CIN -4 6.6 56.7 $45
101 4:40 PM DET Lock of the Week @ DAL 7 -3.9 58.0 $59

[Can'tPickAWinner]

marc lawrence phone plays

INDY

DALL

ARK st

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman


5-Unit Play. Take #108 Indianapolis (-3) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 4)

This play is from my NFL 411 System. The Colts embarrassed the Bengals 27-0 in the first meeting this year back on Oct. 19. I think this will be more of the same. Andrew Luck is one of the top quarterbacks in football and he won his first playoff game last year. I think that this Colts team has a chance to make a big run this postseason. They have won five of their last six games. The only loss was a throwaway game at Dallas. Cincinnati backs into the playoffs off a loss to Pittsburgh last week. They are just 2-2 in their last four games straight up and just 2-3 ATS in their last five games. The Bengals still have not won a playoff game with Marvin Lewis as head coach and they haven't won a playoff game in 24 years! I don't think that streak is going to get snapped on the road in this one.


3-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 48.0 Detroit at Dallas (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 4)

The public expects a shootout. And the last five meetings and seven of the last eight meetings over the last 10 years have gone 'over'. But both of these teams are in the playoff because they fixed their defenses. Six of Detroit's last nine games have played 'under' the total and they had a rare game of giving up 30 points to the Packers last week. The Cowboys have been a high-scoring machine the last month. They have four straight games over 38 points and are averaging over 40 points in their last four games. But they have played teams with weak defenses. I think their high-scoring run will come to an end.



Here are some prop bets that I like. They are available at all major sportsbooks.

1-Unit Play. Take Pittsburgh (+900) to win the AFC

1-Unit Play. Take Dallas (+500) to win the NFC

1-Unit Play. Super Bowl Exact Matchup: Pittsburgh vs. Dallas (+7200)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman


GODADDY BOWL


7-Unit Play. Take 'Under'* 67.5 Toledo vs. Arkansas State (9 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 4)

This is my College Football Total of the Year. I do not see a high-scoring shootout between these two teams. Neither team has played in over a month and I think that is going to hurt their offensive execution. The 'under' is 4-0 in Arkansas State's last four bowl games and that is a trend I see continuing. They have a streak of seven straight games going 'over' the total. But the oddsmakers know that. And they have posted this total higher than any of those seven games were. Toledo is 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall. They have had an inconsistent offense all season long. The 'under' is 5-2 when Toledo plays on a neutral site and the 'under' is 11-3 when Toledo plays a team with a winning record. The 'under' is 22-7 in Arkansas State's last 29 nonconference games and the 'under' is 27-11 in Arkansas State's last 38 games against a team with a winning record. This is the only bowl game on this day and the last football game of the weekend. The public is going to want to chase on the 'over'. But I will stay on the sharp side and call for this one to go 'under'.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones


15* Detroit Lions

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges


TRIPLE PLAY
Dallas -7


SINGLE PLAY
Indianapolis -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hall of Fame Sports

Colts -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Just Cover Baby

Sunday, Jan. 4

5* Indianapolis -3
3* Detroit +7
1* Toledo -3 (buy the hook to 3)

5* plays won 15 of last 16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Jan 04 '15
1:00p Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts
Take: Total 49 ov-110 in 1d


Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* (Regular Play) on OVER in Indianapolis vs. Cincinnati @ 1:05 p.m. ET
The Indianapolis Colts host the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday. “The Bulldog” breaks down his selection on OVER in Indianapolis with his Three-Factor Analysis: 1. The Colts have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, putting up an average of 28.6 points on 406.6 yards per game, including the top-ranked pass attack that throws for 305.9 yards a contest. Indianapolis passes on 62.44 percent of its snaps, which keeps the chains moving and clock stopped – a perfect Over combo. 2. The Bengals defense has been a major weakness all season long and didn’t improve down the stretch. Cincinnati gave up 28 points to Denver and 27 points to Pittsburgh – two of the top passing teams in the league – and now face another airborne attack in Indianapolis. The Bengals record only 20 sacks on the season and their pass rush isn’t putting any pressure on opposing passers. 3. The Bengals have the ability to control the tempo and clock with their running game. But if the defense can’t hold up against the Colts, Cincinnati will be force to abandon the ground-and-pound playbook and open up the passing game. Bengals WR AJ Green returned to practice this week and is expected to be cleared to play Sunday after suffering a mild concussion against the Steelers last Sunday.
Play on OVER in Indianapolis as an 8* Regular Selection Sunday.
Good luck, Scott.


Pick released on Jan 01 at 02:52 pm


-= TOP PLAY =-


NFL Jan 04 '15
4:40p Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys
Take: Detroit Lions +6½+100 in 1d


Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* (Top Play) on Detroit at Dallas @ 4:40 p.m. ET
The Dallas Cowboys host the Detroit Lions Sunday. “The Bulldog” breaks down his selection on Detroit with his Three-Factor Analysis: 1. The Lions defense is No. 1 against the run, giving up only 69.3 yards on the ground per game. Detroit will stuff Dallas RB DeMarco Murray and put the game on Tony Romo’s shoulders. The Lions defensive line is able to get pressure by itself, allowing the linebackers to drop into coverage and plug up the passing lanes. 2. Detroit’s offense has underperformed all season but on paper, the Lions have some of the best weapons in the game. Dallas’ defense has gotten away with a lot this year, thanks in part to the offense limiting the amount of exposure they have on the field. Detroit should exploit that soft stop unit and find its potent pass game once again. 3. AT&T Stadium is hardly home-field advantage for the Cowboys. Dallas was perfect on the road but went only 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS as hosts this season. Opponents get up to play in the league’s premier stadium and visiting fans will make the trip to cheer on their team when you have a destination like “Jerry’s World”. The indoor track in Arlington appeals to the Lions up-tempo pace, with players like Calvin Johnson, Golden State and Reggie Bush enjoying the fast surface in Dallas.
Play on Detroit as a 10* Top Selection Sunday.
Good luck, Scott.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike O'Connor :
INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) 26 Cincinnati 20


Sun Jan-04-2015 at 10:05 AM Pacific Rotation: 108 Over/Under 49.5


Indianapolis hasn’t played real well down the stretch and they could have their hands full in this game against a good Bengals team that will be looking for revenge for their embarrassing 0-27 loss in Indy back in Week 7 while attempting to exercise their playoff demons (0-3 SU with Andy Dalton). In fact, teams that have been blown out in a regular season meeting by 21 or more points are just 27-37 SU when they get a rematch in the playoffs according to The Elias Sports Bureau. Cincinnati isn’t the same team that the Colts faced back then with a more stable defense that has performed much better against the run (allowing 82 rushing yards per game at 3.8 ypr their last seven games) and a ground game that has picked it up behind the running of Jeremy Hill (1,124 yards at 5.1 ypr with most of that compiled after given the lion’s share of the workload beginning in Week 9).


The big question on offense for the Bengals in this game is in regards to AJ Green. As of Friday, it didn’t look good as he was listed as doubtful after not practicing on Friday. Dalton already has a very thin receiving group with Dane Sanzenbacher and rookie James Wright out for Sunday’s game and with tight end Jermaine Gresham nursing an injured back and questionable, the Bengals passing game could really be in trouble if Green can’t suit up. Quarterback Andy Dalton can certainly use all the help he can get with playoff struggles that are well documented (0-3 SU with one touchdown and six interceptions) and in their previous meeting this season, Green didn’t play and Dalton was held to just 126 passing yards at 3.3 yps. Without reliable receiving weapons and a shaky quarterback, the Colts defense will focus on stopping the run and will commit to doing whatever it takes to not let Jeremy Hill beat them. If the Bengals can’t keep them honest with the pass due to their skeleton receiving crew, the Colts should have success. Since getting blasted by the Patriots on the ground back in Week 11, the Colts have buckled down and allowed just 3.9 ypr the past six games. Overall, the Colts defense is about average from an adjusted efficiency perspective but they have performed well on third down (2nd best with a 33% opponent conversion rate).


On the other side, I expect that Indianapolis will play to their strengths offensively and likely implement a pass first approach as a result. Their running game has been below average since losing running back Ahmad Bradshaw in week 11 against the Patriots and they’ll run enough to keep the Bengals honest but not much more in a bad ground match-up. Trent Richardson only averages 3.3 ypr so I’d expect to see more of Dan Herron (4.5 ypr) in this game but the offensive line has been shuffled all year and will start their 11th different combination of the season after placing right tackle Gosder Cherilus on season-ending injured reserve this week. Indianapolis will have to rely on their very good passing attack (averaging 306 yards at 7.1 yps against teams that allow 243 yards at 6.4 yps) but they’ll face a good pass defending team in the Bengals that allows 6.2 yps to teams that gain 6.6 yps on average. The key for the Bengals will be to generate a pass rush but they have had difficulty in that area this season. If they can’t get any pressure on Luck, it could be a long day for the Bengals defense.


Luck has been very good at home in his career (17-6 ATS) while Dalton has struggled in the spotlight. Not just in primetime games or the postseason where he is 3-10 SU. He has struggled against good competition on the road overall in his career (teams >.500) with a 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS record. The Colts qualify in a good 18-4 playoff situation that is 11-0 in the Wild Card round and my model favors them in this spot by 6.8 points but Cincinnati qualifies in a 143-69-7 statistical match-up situation that is 3-0 in the playoffs. Bottom line is I think that it’s going to be difficult for the Bengals to keep pace without their receivers as the Colts stack the box and focus on the run, making scoring difficult. On the other side, if the Bengals can’t generate a pass rush, it’s going to be tough to stop Andrew Luck and the Indy offense. Plus, the Indy special teams have a decided advantage. It’s a pass for me with a lean to the Colts.
DALLAS (-6.5) 29 Detroit 18


Sun Jan-04-2015 at 01:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 102 Over/Under 48.5


The Lions have not been very good this season away from the friendly confines of Ford Field as they are 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS away from home, losing by an average score of 15.6 – 19.6. When looking just at playoff teams that they have faced on the road (Carolina, Arizona, New England and Green Bay), the Lions are 0-4 SU and ATS, losing by an average score of 10.5 -25.5 and have scored less than ten points in three of those contests. Despite having talent, their offense has been a real problem this year and has consistently underperformed. Overall, the Lions are averaging 5.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.7 yppl and have been below average both the running and passing the ball. Detroit hasn’t had much of a ground game this season #30 ranking (averaging 90 yards at 3.8 ypr against teams that allow 116 yards at 4.5 ypr) but they have been better lately. They’ll face a Dallas rush defense that is about average overall (allowing 4.3 ypr to teams that gain 4.3 ypr) but has played really well the past four weeks in allowing an average of 54 rush yards at 3.1 ypr. Detroit will need to get their ground game going to help open up a good match-up against a Dallas pass defense that has allowed 6.9 yps against teams that gain 6.4 yps. What concerns me here for Detroit is that Stafford has been terrible on the road this season, averaging 205 passing yards at 5.4 yps against teams that allow 240 yards at 6.6 yps. In addition, the Lions are 0-17 on the road against teams that finished the season with a winning record in games that Stafford has started in his career (including postseason).


On the other side, the Cowboys have my #5 rated offense that has been very good both on the ground (+.4 ypr) and in the air (+.8 yps). They face a tough match-up against a Lions defense that has also been very good (ranked #2 and allowing 301 yards at 4.9 yppl against teams that gain 346 yards at 5.5 yppl) but haven’t been quite the same on the road this season in allowing 5.2 ypr to teams that gain 5.6 yppl. The key match-up in this game is the Cowboys #2 ranked rush offense taking on the Lions #1 rush defense and whomever wins that war could very well win this game. Overall, the Cowboys offense has been on fire recently and have put up an average of 41 points on offense the last four games. With the Lions struggles on the road both this season and historically, I have a hard time seeing their offense being able to keep up.


There is a coaching angle that probably extends both ways in this game to some degree as former Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan (2009-2013 with Detroit and now play caller and passing game coordinator for the Cowboys) may have some good insights into how to best defend not only Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, but also how to best attack the Lions defensive personnel. On the other side, while the Lions may have some familiarity having faced Linehan’s offense in practice the past five years, this Cowboys system is not quite the same - it’s a mix of Jason Garrett’s offense with some of Linehan’s wrinkles. Overall I think it’s a slight advantage for the Cowboys.


I like the Cowboys in this game as my model favors them by 9.4 points and they benefit from several different playoff situations that play against the Lions that are 27-49-1, 19-40-1, and 8-24. Dallas also qualifies in a small 5-1 situation that plays on certain teams with better pass offenses but the Cowboys qualify in a negative 5-13 playoff situation with a 0-5 subset that plays against them. I think that Detroit has been a bit overrated this season, playing a soft schedule overall and producing a 1-4 SU and ATS record against >.500 competition (their only win was at home against the Packers in Week 3 when the Packers were struggling early). Dallas has fared better with a 3-2 SU and ATS record against >.500 competition with one of their losses against the Cardinals with Brandon Weeden at quarterback. In this round of the playoffs, the winner of the game has a 96-11-3 ATS record (since 1983) and since 2008 that record is 19-0-1 ATS. If you can pick the winner of the game chances are good that you have the ATS winner as well. I like the Cowboys to win and cover but it’s not strong enough for me to pull the trigger on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WAYNE ROOT

MILLIONAIRES---DETROIT

_______________________________

INNER CIRCLE---CINCINNATI

We're betting that Andy Dalton has finally gotten the monkey off his back. The Bengals have proved they are a playoff team and a team that may actually do something to win. The team standing in the way of the Bengals is another team who has proven they deserve to be in the playoffs as well in the Colts. But Dalton has a bigger cast of characters than Andrew Luck. With the Bengals, they are taking to the road a place that has been fairly favorable for them lately. The Bengals have relied on a passing attack from Andy Dalton who on the season threw the ball for 3398 yards and 19 touchdowns. Rushing has been a surprise for the Bengals with the rookie Jeremy Hill really stepping up and carrying the load for 1124 yards and 9 touchdowns on the season. The Colts are coming into the game and looking to defend their home turf, which they did successfully most of the season this year. However, the playoff atmosphere tends to be quite different and this could be a challenge for the Colts. With the Colts, they are led in the passing game by Andrew Luck who threw the ball for 4761 yards and 40 touchdown. The first match-up between these two was the most one sided game of the year for these two, Colts won 27-0 and covered easily at the same time. Since then Cincinnati has played much better and the new found power running game should give Bengals much better chance to return the revenge factor into their own win!! TAKE CINCINNATI

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast
top op--colts
reg op---cowboys
had to pick: toledo
single marquee--over toledo
double marquee--under lions

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George -


Triple Dime Play: Dallas -7
Single Unit Play: Colts -3


Single Unit Play: 2 team 6 Pt Teaser - Dallas -1 & Colts Over 43

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Billy Sharp - Michigan Godfather
5 Units
(NFL) #108 Indianapolis Colts -3.5 (-110)

1 unit
(NFL) #101 Detroit Lions +7 (-110)