1-10-15

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SB Professor Original NFL Picks 1/11

System Play:
Denver -7

Version 3 (1/10)


NE -7

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Rooster
618 College of Charleston -5.5
709 Montana -3
712 N Colorado -3.5

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Sheep
Over 208 Boston
Loyola Marymount +20
Over 188 Charlotte / NYK

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Nfac:
Added tulsa +5 $400

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Goldrush capping


gold play of the century : Seattle


silver : Over pats/baltimore

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RAS Totals
DePaul/Nova under 146.5


Long Beach State / UC Davis over

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Sports Lab

10 units: Texas A&M +14
10 units: Arizona State +5.5
5 units: SE Missouri State +4
1 unit: Drexel +6.5
1 unit: Iowa State +4
1 unit: Austin Peay +5.5
1 unit: Louisiana Monroe +6

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NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor




NEW ENGLAND (-7) 28 Baltimore 20




Sat Jan-10-2015 at 01:35 PM Pacific Rotation: 112 Over/Under 47.5




There has been a lot of discussion this week about how familiar these teams are with one another and how the Ravens seemingly have the Patriots number, having won two of the past three post-season meetings. While it makes for a great story, it doesn’t tell us a lot about what is going to happen in this game. These are different teams with different strengths and weaknesses and three games is not quite a large enough sample size to be significant. To me, this game essentially boils down to a Patriots team that is far more balanced on defense than they have been in recent years facing a Ravens team that has some strengths that could really pose problems for New England.


As we know by now, New England is a sneaky good team that outperforms their stats by doing a lot of little things well. While their offensive efficiency numbers don’t jump off the page they are good enough to be in the top ten driven by their very good passing offense (averaging 368 total yards at 5.6 yppl against teams that allow 336 yards at 5.4 yppl). They can run the ball when the match-ups dictate that they do so, but that won’t be the case in this game. Baltimore has an impressive rush defense that allows just 86 yards at 3.7 ypr to teams that gain 110 yards at 4.2 ypr on average. As a result, New England will attack primarily through the air against a Ravens pass defense that is their weakest link.


The Ravens defensive strengths are their rush defense and their pass rush. Baltimore has a formidable group along the defensive line that can both stop the run and rush the passer and linebackers in Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil that have contributed 29 sacks this season. The pass rush has been on fire recently with the Ravens averaging 4.1 sacks in their past 12 games and what they accomplish in terms of pressure in this game will go a long way in determining the outcome. While a lot has been made of the Ravens pass defense, my metrics say that they haven’t been that bad from an efficiency standpoint overall in allowing 6.1 yps to teams that gain 6.6 on average, partly as a result of their sack numbers but also because of better play in the secondary from Lardarius Webb in the second half of the season and good overall play from safety Will Hill after being inserted into the lineup in Week 7. While the Patriots offense is difficult to defend, the Ravens match up fairly well.


Baltimore has been able to count on superior performances from Joe Flacco in the playoffs with a well-documented run to the Super Bowl in 2012 and now five straight postseason games with a passer rating over 100. The Ravens have won five consecutive playoff games, including three straight on the road and Flacco’s seven career road playoff wins are the most by any quarterback in league history. His season long stats this year are fairly impressive (239 passing yards at 6.8 yps against teams that allow 241 yards at 6.5 yps) and he has been fortunate enough to have a very good ground game to lean on driven by Justin Forsett (1,266 rushing yards at 5.4 ypr). Facing a New England defense that has been about average overall from an adjusted yppl perspective the Ravens will have to grind out yards, not make big mistakes and convert yards into touchdowns. That’s easier said than done against a Patriot defense that has been opportunistic in pulling down 16 interceptions and have played well defending the red zone (ranked #8 with a 47.8% opponent touchdown rate).


Some of the Patriots success this season has been determined by luck as they have fumbled 13 times and only lost 4 while their opponents have fumbled 20 times and lost 9 for a +5 net. On the other side, the Ravens have had slightly positive fumble luck overall. New England has the AFC’s best overall turnover differential at +12 while the Ravens are +2. Also, an interesting coaching match-up is former Patriots defensive coordinator Dean Pees, who is now defensive coordinator for the Ravens, matching wits with Tom Brady and the Patriots offensive coaches. Brady is one of the best at identifying the defense pre-snap and getting the Patriots into the right play so the chess match should be interesting.


The Ravens appear to match up pretty well with the Patriots with a strong pass rush on defense and the ability to control the ball on offense. My model only predicts a 4.5 point New England victory but the Patriots qualify in several good playoff match-up situations that are 68-31-2 and 61-22-1 as well as a 110-60-4 statistical match-up situation that is 14-9-1 in the playoffs. I like the situations for the Patriots but I don’t like the match-ups. I’m going to pass but offer a weak lean to New England minus the points.




***SEATTLE (-11) 30 Carolina 9




Sat Jan-10-2015 at 05:15 PM Pacific Rotation: 114 Over/Under 39.5




Carolina is on a roll having now won five straight games after last week’s 27-16 thumping of the Cardinals at home. The Panthers were impressive in that game with a suffocating defense that allowed just 97 yards at 2.2 yppl (adjusted yardage total), registering four sacks and generating three turnovers. However when I looked a little further at their five game win streak and just used those games in running my numbers, it became apparent that the Panthers are still not a good team and have compiled some impressive non-adjusted stats against bad competition. The adjusted stats tell a little bit of a different story, however. Just using those last five games (against teams with a combined record of 33-47 – with Arizona being the only winning team (0-3 with Lindley) their rush defense wasn’t quite as impressive as it appears. In those five games they allowed 80 yards rushing per game at 4.3 ypr to teams that average 95 yards at 3.9 ypr for a -.4 dypr so they were nearly a half yard worse than their opponents average in stopping the run. Using season long stats they are also below average in allowing 4.6 ypr against teams that gain 4.3 ypr on average for a similar -.3 dypr. Not having one of their best run defenders this week in Star Lotulelei (out with a broken foot) certainly won’t help as they face the best rushing team in the league in the Seahawks who average 174 yards at 5.5 ypr against teams that allow 112 yards at 4.4 ypr.


Offensively, the Panthers are a bad passing team any way you slice it. Using season long numbers the Panthers are -.6 in yps. Using just those last five wins, the numbers are similar as well (averaging 200 passing yards at 6.4 yps against teams that allow 255 yards at 6.9 yps). Cam Newton was way off last week against the Cardinals, missing multiple open receivers and not seeing others. My projections show this match-up to be a major advantage for the Seahawks as their pass defense allows a league best 185 yards at 5.4 yps against teams that gain 248 yards at 6.6 yps. What makes matters worse for the Panthers is that their speed wide receiver, Philly Brown, left last week’s game with a shoulder injury and if he plays will likely be compromised in this game. Without a legitimate downfield threat to stretch the field, the underneath stuff will get all clogged up and Newton will make some mistakes with the ball. Playing this game on the road with the noise that their offense will be facing (and with several rookies along their offensive line making their first road playoff start), the Panthers pass offense is going to struggle. While the Panthers have played valiantly in losing their last three to the Seahawks (all in Carolina), Newton has not played well. In those three games he has engineered only one touchdown drive in 28 possessions with a Total Quarterback Rating of 28.7. He has averaged 145.6 yards passing and 34.6 yards rushing per game. Again, all of those games were in Carolina. It’s going to be much more difficult for their offense in Seattle. Their best and really only chance at offensive success lies with their rushing offense where they have been very good recently. The problem is that they are facing one of the best rush defenses in the league in Seattle that allows 82 yards at 3.6 ypr to teams that gain 110 yards at 4.2 ypr. The Seahawks will clearly be focused on shutting down the run and will likely be successful. If the Panthers have trouble rushing the ball as I expect they will, it’s going to be a long day for their offense.


On the other side, the Seattle offense will get a boost this week with the return of center Max Unger, who is their best offensive lineman and excels in the run game. With his return coupled with the Panthers loss of defensive tackle Lotulelei, the Seahawks will have a strong ground advantage offensively. If the Seahawks can get their run game going as I suspect they will, the pass game will open up. Seattle has an underrated pass attack that averages 6.6 yps against teams that allow 6.4 yps and will be facing a Carolina pass defense that has been good since making changes in their secondary. However, Carolina is still young and inexperienced on the back end and will be starting three rookies in their defensive backfield. In addition, the Panthers have had trouble with Russell Wilson as he has completed 71.1% of his passes for an average of 247 yards per game and a 91.8 QB rating in their three meetings.


The Panthers were in a good spot to play well last week against a hapless Cardinals offense but they are in a terrible spot in this game. The Seahawks qualify in a number of good playoff match-up situations that are 68-31-2 and 61-22-1 and benefit from a negative 28-49-1 situation that plays against the Panthers. In addition, Seattle qualifies in another 110-60-1 situation that is 14-9-1 in the playoffs. Teams that have won a playoff game after a .500 or worse regular season (Carolina) have not been good in their next game, going 0-5 ATS and losing by an average score of 18-38 as an underdog of nine points on average. Seattle is 24-2 SU at home in the Russell Wilson era and playoff teams that win the game with a line between -8 and -14 are 49-19-2 ATS. In addition, the Seahawks are 9-2 all-time in home playoff games and have won 7 in a row. Carolina also qualifies in a negative 20-56-3 playoff situation with 8-33-2 and 3-18-1 subsets (the 3-18-1 subset is on dogs of 10 or more) that play against them. I don’t see Carolina winning this one and my model supports that notion with a predicted 15.3 point edge pointing Seattle’s way. I don’t typically play on a lot of large favorites but this one is too good to pass up. Play on Seattle -11 for 3-stars and for 2-stars at up to -13.