1-11-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WAYNE ROOT

SUNDAY

MILLIONAIRES---DENVER

It's Luck vs Manning. It is all about the quarterbacks as the Indianapolis Colts (11-5) travel to Denver on Sunday to take on the 12-4 Broncos. This could be an aerial circus with Luck leading his team to an average of over 305 per game passing. Luck has the Colts at the top of the league in average yards passing per game. Manning, meanwhile, is passing for an average of over 291 yards per contest, placing them 4th in the league. These two teams met to start the season back on September 7th, with the Broncos prevailing by a 31-24 score. In that game Luck passed for 370 yards with Manning putting up 269. If there was anyone who appreciated having the week off last week it was likely Manning, whose aging body could use the rest. Peyton will be more than ready as not only is he well rested but has had an added week for his perfectionist self to gameplan. Playing on the road is not a "good fit" for Andrew Luck. He seldom comes out on top against quality playoff caliber teams. TAKE DENVER

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Pinnacle---DALLAS......Divisional Round Game of the Year

Historically, Lambeau Field has been a major advantage for the Packers. But now they are tasked with containing the Dallas Cowboys offense. The team has plenty of diversity in their offensive schemes. Passing plays to Dez Bryant and other receivers have been the bulk of their scoring plays. But RB DeMarco Murray has been a valued addition as well. Dallas can rely on their pass coverage to keep them in the game, but they can't afford too many mistakes down the stretch.
Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers have shown that they can win against almost any team in the league. The calf injury to Aaron Rodgers is not to be taken lightly. He's a mobile QB that likes to get out of the pocket at times and that won't happen. Additionally, the Dallas defenders know exactly where the injury is and may put their helmets in that area as they hit him. (ouch). He only took 50% of the reps at practice this week so Packer fans should be nervous. Dallas is 8-0 on the road and is very capable of continuing this great season with a win here! TAKE DALLAS

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Maddux

10* Denver -7

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Compufun

Playoff Game of the Year

Broncos

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Dwayne Bryant
3* Dallas +6

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NORTHCOAST LATE PHONES

Sunday - 3* OVER 53.5 Indianapolis/Denver 4:40 pm
Top Opinion: Sunday - Denver -7 Indianapolis 4:40 pm CBS Sunday - Green Bay -5.5 Dallas 1:05 pm

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SB Professor

System Play:

Denver -7

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Mike O'Connor

GREEN BAY (-5.5) 34 Dallas 23




Sun Jan-11-2015 at 10:05 AM Pacific Rotation: 118 Over/Under 52.5




The big question in this game is the health of Aaron Rodgers and whether the calf tear/strain he exacerbated against the Lions two weeks ago is going to limit him in a significant way. He is an excellent quarterback when playing from the pocket but he becomes special when he can use his athleticism to extend plays and create opportunities down the field. We may not see much of that this game but I believe that he will still be quite effective with a game plan tailored to maximize his strengths while minimizing whatever mobility limitation he may have. It would be logical to assume that he’ll be in better shape than when he last played against the Lions with two weeks to rest his injured calf. Limited as he was, he was still quite effective. Rodgers played well against the Lions after re-injuring/aggravating his calf and engineered a 30-20 win against a very good defense but was clearly compromised with a limited framework of formations specifically designed to minimize movement. I would expect the same in this game. As a result, we can expect to see the offense operate primarily out of the shotgun or in a pistol formation that they used against the Lions. This effectively reduces Rodgers movement, limiting the opportunity to aggravate the injury, while playing to his strengths. Whatever state Rodgers is in, and no one can accurately predict how his injury will respond to game conditions, it can be assured that McCarthy will have a game plan effectively tailored to his condition.


Rodgers had an MVP like season this year (65.6% completion rate with 38 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions) and has consistently been one of the best players in the league the past seven years. His play at home is unbelievably good – in his last 16 home games he has completed 68.4% of his passes for 4,341 yards with 38 touchdowns and 0 interceptions! He hasn’t thrown an interception in his last 477 attempts at home. Overall, the Packers offense is difficult to defend not only because of Rodgers, but also because of a rush game that requires respect. Running back Eddie Lacy leads a rush offense that averages 121 yards at 4.7 ypr and Rodgers leads a passing attack that has averaged 7.6 yps against teams that allow 6.4 yps. If Rodgers is anywhere near his average, which I suspect he will be, the Packers will move the ball consistently against a Dallas defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that gain 5.5 yppl, including giving up 6.9 yps to teams that typically gain 6.4 yps. This is not a good pass defense. In addition, Dallas may be limited a bit once again as after losing one of their best defensive lineman, Henry Melton, a couple of weeks ago, they are also dealing with several other injuries in their front seven this week. The steam could be taken out of a limited pass rush unless they decide to blitz. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, that option would play right into the hands of the Packers as Rodgers quick and accurate decision making skills would more than compensate for his limited mobility. According to ESPN.com, Rodgers has the NFL’s highest Total Quarterback Rating (76.2) since 2008 and has 91 touchdowns to just 18 interceptions against the blitz. If Dallas doesn’t blitz, they’ll have a hard time getting to Rodgers as the Cowboys are ranked #28 in the NFL with a 4.9% sack rate. Last week Matthew Stafford carved up this Dallas secondary and facing a far better Green Bay offense this week, I expect that the Cowboys defense will be exposed.


When the Cowboys have the ball, they’ll try to pound the Packers on the ground with the best offensive line in the league and #1 rusher DeMarco Murray. Season long stats show the Packers to be vulnerable to the run in allowing 145 yards at 4.5 ypr but they have actually played much better in the second half of the season. In fact, since returning from their bye in Week 10 and making some schematic changes, the Packers are allowing an average of just 89 yards on the ground at 3.8 ypr. In addition, since DeMarco Murray broke a bone in his hand in the Eagles game, the Cowboys have only averaged 4.0 ypr. Leading into that game they had averaged 5.0 ypr. With a rush offense that has declined recently facing a rush defense that has improved, the Cowboys may not run the ball as well as many think in this game.


Despite back ailments, Tony Romo has been outstanding this season. He is #1 in Total QBR (just ahead of Aaron Rodgers) and has completed nearly 70% of his passes with 34 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions. He has had the benefit of an excellent offensive line and running game to balance out the offense and open play-action opportunities down the field. As a result, he has generated an average of 236 yards at 7.4 yps against teams that allow 241 yards at 6.5 yps this season. Last week he faced pressure and was sacked six times and this week he’ll face a Packers team that is tied for 7th in the league with 41 sacks. The Green Bay secondary is mostly unheralded but have played well this season in allowing 226 passing yards at 6.0 yps to teams that typically gain 235 yards at 6.1 yps and are tied for 5th in the league with 18 interceptions. While Dallas should be able to move the ball and score some in this game, they clearly have the tougher match-up and will be hard pressed to keep pace with the Packers offense.


The Packers are in a good spot in this game and qualify in several good playoff situations that are 68-31-2, 39-14 and 31-16 so the technical support is certainly in favor of the Packers. My model predicts a 7.8 point Packer win as well. The Packers have a league best +14 turnover differential with nearly all of that difference attributable to interceptions, suggesting that it is more likely to sustain itself than if it were due mainly to fumbles. The Cowboys have a similar profile with a +6 margin. Rodgers just doesn’t turn the ball over at home, however, and I expect a strong game from a rested Packers defense. In addition, although Dallas has been good on the road this season, they haven’t been in an environment like this. It’s going to be difficult for a warm weather, dome-style team to play well with wind chills around 13 degrees. Tony Romo is 1-2 in his career when game-time temperatures are 32 degrees or lower. The problem for me here is that with the uncertainty around Rodgers injury, I can’t play the Packers. It’s just a strong lean to Green Bay for me.




**DENVER -7 (-105) 34 Indianapolis 19




Sun Jan-11-2015 at 01:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 120 Over/Under 53.5




The Colts were impressive in their 26-10 Wild Card win last week in Indianapolis, rolling up 483 yards at 7.0 yppl while holding the punch-less Bengals to 254 yards at 4.3 yppl. Indy’s offense did what they wanted to a Bengals defense that couldn’t generate much of a pass rush while shutting down a Cincy offense that had no one to throw to with injuries in the wide receiver and tight end groups. While impressive, their task is much harder this week as they travel to Denver to take on a Broncos team that is near the top of the league in most major statistical categories. The standout player for the Colts obviously is Andrew Luck and as he goes, so goes the team. He has had a great year without the benefit of a decent running game for a period of time and behind a shuffled and inconsistent offensive line. I think that it catches up with him here.


The Colts won’t be able to run the ball this week against an excellent run stuffing Denver defense that has allowed 79 yards at 3.7 ypr to teams that gain 110 yards at 4.3 ypr, 2nd best in the league. They’ll have to throw the ball to win, but the Broncos pass defense is excellent and features linebackers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware who have combined for 24 sacks and have led a Broncos defense that finished the regular season ranked 6th in pressure percentage. That will be a major challenge for a Colts offensive line that has started 11 different personnel combinations this season and will be playing in a hostile environment where communication will be crucial. Applying pressure up front will only help a defense that is tied for 5th in the league with 18 interceptions and has held opponents that average 6.1 yps to just 5.3 yps. While Luck looked great last week at home where he has performed well throughout his career, he has not been good on the road. In his career, Luck is just 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS on the road against winning teams (>.500), losing by an average score of 21-35. With Luck the Colts are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the playoffs as he has completed just 50.5% of his passes with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions and a 29.5 Total Quarterback Rating.


On the other side, the Broncos offense has been very good and features a balanced attack that has averaged 404 total yards at 6.2 yppl against teams that allow 338 yards at 5.4 yppl. Running back CJ Anderson has been a revelation in the second half of the season, rushing for 849 yards at 4.7 ypr. He has brought real balance to an offense that is all-weather and will be tough to slow down in the postseason. Facing a Colts run defense that is just below average in allowing 113 yards at 4.4 ypr he should have some room to operate. If he does, the Broncos passing attack will be able to take advantage of an inconsistent Indianapolis pass rush to create downfield opportunities. Pressuring Manning will be key for the Colts if they expect to disrupt the Denver pass game but Manning was only sacked 17 times this season and has the shortest average time to attempt from snap of any qualifying quarterback (2.22 seconds according to ProFootballFocus). In addition, the Colt defense has over-performed due to a #2 ranked 3rd down conversion allowance rate of 33%. With middle of the road defensive efficiency stats and now facing a very good and efficient Broncos offense, that rate won’t continue in this game.


The Broncos qualify in a 110-60-4 statistical match-up situation that is 14-9-1 in the playoffs in addition to a 39-14 situation that plays on certain teams with rest. The Colts are really a one man show while the Broncos are a complete team that has been very good in every important statistical category. With an impressive Colts victory last week coupled with some concerns about Manning and his declining late season performance keeping this line at a touchdown or less I believe that there is value on the Broncos. My model favors Denver by 12.6 points and with what appears to be a pretty good match-up I’ll take the Broncos at no more than -7 for 2-stars

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Just Cover Baby

5* Indianapolis / Denver Over 53½

4* Indianapolis +7

3* Green Bay -5½

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bookieshunter

2*- Broncos -7

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Patriots (-7) on Saturday and likes the Packers on Sunday.

The surplus is 35 sirignanos.

[golden contender]

GC: NBA Play

Sunday NFL Playoff Totals Of the Year and 2 big Divisional Sides all from systems dating to 1980 up with 2 Big NBA Plays one is an afternoon Perfect system the other a Late total. NFL Ranked #1 9 straight weeks. Free Early NBA Totals Below.


On Sunday the free NBA Totals Play in early action is on the Over in the Miami at LA. Clippers game. Rotation numbers 803/804 at 3:35 eastern. In the series 4 of the last 5 have played over between these two and 6 of the last 8 here in LA. Home teams like the Clippers with no rest off a home game where the total is 200 or less have played over 80% of the time since 1989 if they are playing a team like Miami that lost and failed to cover as a +5 or more road dog. The Clippers are 4 of 4 over the total at home with no rest off a home game. Take this one over. Dont miss the big card on Sunday the 100% NFL Playoff Totals Of the Year and 2 big Divisional Sides all from systems dating to 1980 all have exclusive Computer Simulations as well. Football is ranked #1 for a 9th straight weeks at 58 games over .500 for the season. In the NBA Its Perfect systems in the Washington at Atlanta game and evening 100% totals system. Jump on now and end the week big with the Most powerful data in the Industry. For the free play take the Over in the Miami at LA. Game. GC

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MTI Sports

4* Over Green Bay/Dallas 51.5

3-0 Yesterday

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Today's NBA Picks

Miami at LA Clippers

The Heat head to Los Angeles today where they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus the Clippers. Los Angeles is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-10). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 11 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 801-802: Washington at Atlanta (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 120.093; Atlanta 129.821 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 200 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 195 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2); Over

Game 803-804: Miami at LA Clippers (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 112.203; LA Clippers 130.680 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 18 1/2; 207 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10; 200 Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-10); Over

Game 805-806: Phoenix at Memphis (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 120.903; Memphis 120.578 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 201 Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 5 1/2; 207 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+5 1/2); Under

Game 807-808: Cleveland at Sacramento (0:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 113.426; Sacramento 112.374 Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 1; 202 Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 206 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Under

Game 809-810: Portland at LA Lakers (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 123.398; LA Lakers 115.300 Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 8; 211 Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 5 1/2; 205 Dunkel Pick: Portland (-5 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Winnipeg at Anaheim

The Jets head to Anaheim tonight to face a Ducks team that is coming off a 4-1 loss to the Rangers and is 2-6 in its last 8 games following a home defeat of 3 or more goals. Winnipeg is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Jets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+170). Here are all of today's NHL picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 11 Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Florida at Edmonton (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida 12.303; Edmonton 11.752 Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-125); 5 Dunkel Pick: Florida (-125); Over

Game 3-4: Minnesota at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.503; Chicago 12.674 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 5-6: Winnipeg at Anaheim (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 12.313; Anaheim 11.442 Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-200); 5 Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+170); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Duke at NC State

The Blue Devils head to NC State today to face a Wolfpack team that is coming off a 61-51 loss at Virginia and is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU defeat. NC State is the pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Devils favored by only 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NC State (+10). Here are all of today's NCAA Basketball picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 11 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 811-812: Duke at NC State (1:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Duke 75.892; NC State 69.447 Dunkel Line: Duke by 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Duke by 10 Dunkel Pick: NC State (+10)

Game 813-814: Wisconsin at Rutgers (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 72.426; Rutgers 59.217 Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 13 Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 16 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+16 1/2)

Game 815-816: Northwestern at Michigan State (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 57.764; Michigan State 74.281 Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 16 1/2 Vegas Line: Michigan State by 14 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-14 1/2)

Game 817-817: Massachusetts at George Mason (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 57.541; George Mason 54.028 Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 3 1/2 Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (-1 1/2)

Game 819-820: SMU at Central Florida (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: SMU 66.228; Central Florida 56.164 Dunkel Line: SMU by 10 Vegas Line: SMU by 12 Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+12)

Game 821-822: Wichita State at Loyola-Chicago (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 67.968; Loyola-Chicago 64.182 Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 4 Vegas Line: Wichita State by 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+7 1/2)

Game 823-824: South Florida at Tulane (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 50.761; Tulane 61.599 Dunkel Line: Tulane by 11 Vegas Line: Tulane by 8 Dunkel Pick: Tulane (-8)

Game 825-826: Illinois State at Missouri State (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 60.269; Missouri State 56.258 Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 4 Vegas Line: Illinois State by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (-1 1/2)

Game 827-828: St. Bonaventure at Richmond (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Bonaventure 57.505; Richmond 60.366 Dunkel Line: Richmond by 3 Vegas Line: Richmond by 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (+6 1/2)

Game 829-830: Memphis at Houston (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 57.806; Houston 57.762 Dunkel Line: Even Vegas Line: Memphis by 3 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3)

Game 831-832: California at UCLA (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: California 56.688; UCLA 66,165 Dunkel Line: UCLA by 9 1/2 Vegas Line: UCLA by 7 Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-7)

Game 833-834: Youngstown State at WI-Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 45.985; WI-Green Bay 66.393 Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 20 1/2 Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 16 Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-16)

Game 835-836: Florida State at Syracuse (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 58.497; Syracuse 65.804 Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Syracuse by 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+10 1/2)

Game 837-838: Illinois at Nebraska (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 67.069; Nebraska 63.932 Dunkel Line: Illinois by 3 Vegas Line: Nebraska by 2 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+2 1/2)

Game 839-840: Arizona at Oregon State (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 75.719; Oregon State 63.039 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 12 1/2 Vegas Line: Arizona by 9 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-9)

Game 841-842: Stanford at USC (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 65.243; USC 57.402 Dunkel Line: Stanford by 8 Vegas Line: Stanford by 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-5 1/2)

Game 843-844: Marist at Quinnipiac (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Marist 42.637; Quinnipiac 53.652 Dunkel Line: Quinnipiac by 11 Vegas Line: Quinnipiac by 14 Dunkel Pick: Marist (+14)

Game 845-846: Fairfield at Siena (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 47.728; Siena 50.108 Dunkel Line: Siena by 2 1/2 Vegas Line: Siena by 7 Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+7)

Game 847-848: Murray State at Jacksonville State (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 61.885; Jacksonville State 47.003 Dunkel Line: Murray State by 15 Vegas Line: Murray State by 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Murray State (-10 1/2)