1-22-15

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Rockdeman Sports

Georgia Tech
Pepperdine
St Mary's

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VegasButcher NBA

Chicago Bulls +6

The 1st rule of sports betting is: “Buy when it’s low and sell when it’s high”. Bulls are clearly very ‘low’ right now, while the Spurs are ‘high’ after a 4 game winning streak. Chicago is coming off two straight losses, both to East contenders – ATL and CLE. The players have called one another out after that game with Rose, Gibson, and Gasol all voicing their opinions. And now Thibs has mentioned that he might be changing rotations up a bit. Noah being out is a big loss of course, but regardless of that, I expect the Bulls to play with some ‘fire’ tonight. They’re in front of their fans at home with the game being played on national TV, and I’d be very surprised if we don’t see a very strong effort out of them.

Overall this is a situation that is screaming to back Chicago from my perspective, which of course leads to the 2nd key rule of sports betting: “When something is too good to be true, it usually is”. Bulls tend to be a public team and a lot of bettors take them blindly, so I assumed that majority of the bets would be on the home-dog here. Not the case. Over 60% of all the wagers are coming in on the Spurs. Clearly, majority does not agree with me that Bulls look like an enticing play tonight, in a spot where you can expect them to play really hard.

Finally, we are now coming up to rule #3 of sports betting: “Pure line-value is KING every single time!” There is no denying that line-value is on the home dog in this one. Bulls were +3 at home against Atlanta (were playing on a b2b) and +3.5 on the road at Cleveland (would be -2.5 at home) in their last 2 games. Now all of a sudden, with 2 days off, they are a 6-point home underdog to the Spurs? The 6-points is very generous here as my model has this one at +0.5 Chicago. Even if you account for Noah’s absence (remember, Taj Gibson is replacing him, and Taj is a very good player himself), the +6 is nowhere close to where it should be in this matchup. You want another data-point to compare to? Last year in Chicago, with Spurs coming into the game with 2 full days off and a fully healthy squad, the line was -5 San Antonio. That game featured players like Boozer and Augustin for Chicago. This year’s squad has Rose, Gasol, and Mirotic. Even without Noah, this year’s squad is better. The Bulls are a much better offensive team, which is something that you need in order to compete with an efficient team like the Spurs. In addition, the depth in the front court should be enough to compensate for Noah’s loss. I expect the Bulls to play hard tonight and I love the value that we are getting with them at home. With all rules of sports-betting covered, Chicago looks like the right play ;)

Los Angeles Clippers -11.5
Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 (1st Half only)

The Nets are on a b2b here playing a really tough game @ Sacramento last night. They seemed to be in control in that one, leading by 20+ points at one point but only managed to win by 3 at the end. That required all of their key players to log heavy minutes: Jack – 39, Johnson – 37, and even Brook Lopez played 38 minutes, the most he’s logged since coming back from his 8-game injury in December. Lopez’ average minutes in January have been 25 mins / game, so the jump to 38 last night is pretty big. I would expect Plumlee to play more minutes tonight of course, but he won’t have an easy time going up against a very athletic DeAndre Jordan. A 31-year old Jarrett Jack will have a very tough time containing CP3 and I’m not sure who will match up with Blake Griffin for the Nets, as old-man Garnett really struggles in b2b’s. Clippers rank #1 in OffEff and #2 in eFG%, while Brooklyn is 24th and 21st respectively. The Nets don’t rebound the ball well, are fairly TO-prone (#21 in the league), and aren’t very good at getting to the FT-line (#17). And with ‘fatigue’ being an issue here, I just have a hard time seeing them keep this game close. Clippers are well rested (2 days off) and I like their chances of putting on an offensive show tonight. I don’t believe the Nets will be able to stay close.

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Worlds Worst Picker

Virginia Tech
Arkansas

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Ocalsports

NCAAB
(5) Rhode Island -4.5
(3) Depaul +10
(5) Mercer -2
(7.5) C Fla @ Uconn Over 132
(5) Rider pk
(5) Elon -5
(5) Coastal Carolina @ UNC Ash Over 140
(5) UAB +1
(5) Cal -2
(5) St. Mary's +14.5

NBA
(5) Utah @ Mil Under 185.5

Parlay's
(5) Ohio State and Murray State ml's

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SPORTS LOCKSMITH

NCAAB:
UCLA -1.5 -110 3* (9:00 Eastern)
Chairman's Plays:
Iona -1 -110 4* (7:00 Eastern)
North Dakota State -2 -110 5* (8:00 Eastern)

NBA:
Chairman's Play:
Milwaukee -8 -110 4* (8:00 Eastern)