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Game: Cornell Big Red (807) @ Dartmouth Big Green (808)
Time: Friday 02/13 7:00 PM Eastern
Pick: Cornell +5.5 (-105) at BetPhoenix
The Dartmouth Big Green may be given too much credit for their one shinning moment this season. The Big Green went to Harvard and handed the Crimson their only conference loss on the season. The problem is the rest of the body of work in the Ivy League shows them winless, and their 8-12 record on the season speaks for itself as this team finds themselves once again in the basement of the league. Cornell has been even on the seaon at 11-11, but is 5-3 over their last eight games, and simply has been more consistent. Dartmouth, since the big win at Harvard, has been 0-4 SU/ATS and has not played anywhere near as well as they did for one game. The Big Red, bringing it home vs. losing teams are at 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12, while the Big Green have not recorded a spread win at home in their last seven tries. Make the play on Cornell.
Analysis: In fact, I’ll play it now at +10 (-120) for arguments sake. A couple of books have +10, but whatever to the trolls. Buy it if you so choose. Columbia is big enough and plays enough interior defense to keep this game close, IMO. Columbia may remember a 33 point loss at Harvard late last year, too. Columbia is actually the much bigger team here, so if they keep Harvard from getting all the offensive rebounds like Hofstra could not do last night, this will be a much closer game than they think. Columbia scores 40% of their points from deep, which is just a ton, but they also shoot 36% (43% in Ivy League games) from dehind the arc, and as I said they’re bigger, and if Harvard has a weakness on defense, it’s perimeter defense. Crimson’s INTERIOR defense is numero uno, but this is strictly a matchup issue here. I do relaize that Harvard has played mostly road games and Columbia mostly home games, but there’s enough of a sample size to matter (for me). Columbia has the #1 rated offense (efficiency) in the League. I will totally take my chances with that in a low scoring game. Like this ones as much as Detroit, really, but mitigating some risk for now. Plus, if I didn’t play a GOW 3* then I can’t in good consscience play them 2* as well. Just avoiding taking the sh*t later, perhaps. Long term guys that read these daily know how this works. Onward.
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