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Dr. Bob
*SOUTH FLORIDA (+6) over Memphis
09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 510
Memphis has struggled away from home, winning just 3 of 9 road or neutral games while going 2-7 ATS. I went against the Tigers in their 53-64 loss at East Carolina on Tuesday night and I still see value bucking Memphis without leading scorer Austin Nichols. My ratings favor Memphis by just 3 points based on current personnel for each team (I’ll assume Chris Perry will miss this game for USF, although he is listed as questionable). I’ll take South Florida in a 1-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more.
**GEORGE WASHINGTON (pick) over Virginia Commonwealth
11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 536
VCU beat up on George Washington 72-48 a couple of weeks ago but the Colonials should get their revenge on their home court. George Washington in unbeaten at home this season and the Colonials apply to a 143-67-4 ATS home revenge situation. VCU is without PG Briante Weber and could be without leading scorer Treveon Graham again. The line has been adjusted some (I’d favor VCU by 2 points using all games), but I see value on GW even if Graham plays and the situation is favorable. I’ll take George Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 1-Star up to -2.
Opinion - Tulane (+11) over CINCINNATI
11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 521
Cincinnati is just 25-50-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or more, including 1-4 ATS this season, and the Bearcats’ 59-75 road loss at Temple sets them up in a negative 35-95-2 ATS big home favorite season. You might think that Cincy would play better following a loss but the Bearcats are 0-9 ATS laying more than 10 points after a loss. Tulane, meanwhile, applies to an 81-17-3 ATS big road underdog situation and that angle is tough to pass on even if there is no line value – as is the case here. My ratings favor Cincy by 12 points, but the line has dropped a point and I don’t want to give up the line value in a Best Bet. However, the situation is strong enough that I’ll lean with the Green Wave at +11 or more and I’d take Tulane in a 1-Star Best Bet at +12 points or more.
Opinion - TEMPLE (-12 ½) over East Carolina
11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 524
Both of these teams have covered the spread in each of their last 6 games but I expect Temple to end ECU’s ATS streak. My ratings favor the Owls by 14 ½ points East Carolina hasn’t played nearly as well on the road (3-8 ATS road or neutral games) as they are at home (7-1 ATS). I was hoping the line would be a bit lower but I’ll lean with the Owls based on the line value and I’d take Temple in a 1-Star Best Bet at -12 or less.
*SOUTH FLORIDA (+6) over Memphis
09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 510
Memphis has struggled away from home, winning just 3 of 9 road or neutral games while going 2-7 ATS. I went against the Tigers in their 53-64 loss at East Carolina on Tuesday night and I still see value bucking Memphis without leading scorer Austin Nichols. My ratings favor Memphis by just 3 points based on current personnel for each team (I’ll assume Chris Perry will miss this game for USF, although he is listed as questionable). I’ll take South Florida in a 1-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more.
**GEORGE WASHINGTON (pick) over Virginia Commonwealth
11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 536
VCU beat up on George Washington 72-48 a couple of weeks ago but the Colonials should get their revenge on their home court. George Washington in unbeaten at home this season and the Colonials apply to a 143-67-4 ATS home revenge situation. VCU is without PG Briante Weber and could be without leading scorer Treveon Graham again. The line has been adjusted some (I’d favor VCU by 2 points using all games), but I see value on GW even if Graham plays and the situation is favorable. I’ll take George Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 1-Star up to -2.
Opinion - Tulane (+11) over CINCINNATI
11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 521
Cincinnati is just 25-50-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or more, including 1-4 ATS this season, and the Bearcats’ 59-75 road loss at Temple sets them up in a negative 35-95-2 ATS big home favorite season. You might think that Cincy would play better following a loss but the Bearcats are 0-9 ATS laying more than 10 points after a loss. Tulane, meanwhile, applies to an 81-17-3 ATS big road underdog situation and that angle is tough to pass on even if there is no line value – as is the case here. My ratings favor Cincy by 12 points, but the line has dropped a point and I don’t want to give up the line value in a Best Bet. However, the situation is strong enough that I’ll lean with the Green Wave at +11 or more and I’d take Tulane in a 1-Star Best Bet at +12 points or more.
Opinion - TEMPLE (-12 ½) over East Carolina
11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 524
Both of these teams have covered the spread in each of their last 6 games but I expect Temple to end ECU’s ATS streak. My ratings favor the Owls by 14 ½ points East Carolina hasn’t played nearly as well on the road (3-8 ATS road or neutral games) as they are at home (7-1 ATS). I was hoping the line would be a bit lower but I’ll lean with the Owls based on the line value and I’d take Temple in a 1-Star Best Bet at -12 or less.
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