2-21-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS

8 Unit Play. #534 Take LSU -4.5 over Florida (1 pm CBS)

SEC GAME OF THE YEAR. Florida has underachieved this season and now injuries/suspensions are starting to take their toll on this team. Billy Donovan is a great coach and will have this team back into the NCAA Tournament next year but today they will likely be without Michael Frazier (high ankle) and Dorian Finney-Smith (suspension). Florida has lost 4 of their last 5 games and had to hang on for dear life on Wednesday against Vanderbilt at home. LSU is another team that is hard to figure out with some great wins and has head scratching losses but they will win this game by default. The Tigers already won by 18 points in Gainesville this year and when the Tigers win games they tend to win big. The Tigers last five wins have come by 11.4 points and I also see this as a double digit victory. This is a game LSU cannot afford to lose if they want to make the NCAA Tournament and I believe they will get it in a big way. Florida is 2-10 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games following a victory in their previous game. LSU is 8-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games following a loss in their previous game. Both trends hold true today as the Tigers roar!

4 Unit Play. #570 Take Northern Iowa -16 over Bradley (4 pm ESPN 3) Just too teams on completely opposite sides of the standing in the MVC. Northern Iowa allows just 54.3 points per game and should dominate this game from start to finish. Bradley scored just 52 points in the first match and playing at home will allow Northern Iowa to reach 70 points. Bradley is 10-24 ATS in their last 34 road games. Northern Iowa is 9-1 ATS (3 pushes) in their last 13 games.

4 Unit Play. #650 Take Arizona -14 over UCLA (9 pm ESPN) College Gameday has arrived in Tucson for this match-up that does not warrant the hype. Outside of Arizona the PAC-12 is just not any good this season and the Wildcats have won three straight games by blowout fashion. Arizona has only lost one game since January 12th and only one of those wins has come by single digits. UCLA is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. Arizona has covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 games.

5 Unit Play. #676 Take South Dakota -5.5 over IUPUI (3 pm) The Coyotes have enough firepower to win this game at home today. They have won three straight games and have revenge since IUPUI beat them earlier this season. Since that victory the Jaguars have been in a freefall losing five of their last six games and only one of those games has been competitive. IUPUI is 13-27 ATS in their last 40 Summit League games. South Dakota is 3-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 games overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE

Saturday February 21st 2015-

3 Unit Play Take #548 ‘under’ 128 Miami Florida/Louisville (2:00pm est):

Both of these teams have really slowed things down of late and show a recent game that didn’t even hit 60 possessions versus each other. Louisville has dropped two straight and badly need a win while Miami is also desperate with trying to improve their post-season resume. With both teams needing to win this game I expect a slow contest again here in this one.

Play ‘under’ the total here.

3 Unit Play Take #560 ‘under’ 123 Penn State/Northwestern (3:00pm est):

Pretty simple handicap in this one as Northwestern has slowed things down and become more of a defensive team without JerShon Cobb on the court for them. Penn State has seen much better defensive play with big man Jordan Dickerson playing a lot better in the middle for them of late.

Play ‘under’ the total.

3 Unit Play Take #706 Southern Utah +3 over Idaho (9:00pm est):

Home court is everything in the Big Sky conference. SUU is proof of that at 2-4 in conference play at home and with close losses for the most part also. They are playing a lot better of late since inserting James McGee into their lineup. They have covered four straight games coming into this one. McGee has been very impressive and makes SUU a much better team then their overall numbers say they are.

Take Southern Utah and the points.

3 Unit Play Take #689 Manhattan -3 over Siena (7:00pm est):

Huge game here for Manhattan who wants to finish in the top five of the MAAC to get a first round bye. Siena is faced with having to once again play a team who is rested while the Saints played just a few days ago. They are 0-6 this year in the MAAC when facing a team who has had more than two extra days to prepare for them like they face in this contest.

Take Manhattan here.

3 Unit Play Take #702 Tennessee Tech +2.5 over Belmont (8:30pm est):

Big Senior Day contest here for TTU as they will most likely start three seniors or more in this contest. This is always a big game for teams in this spot. They get Belmont off a huge win the other night also in this one while they have had all week to prepare for this game.

Take Tennessee Tech. On a roll in the NBA right now. Join me as pro hoops was my top sport last year in 2014 and I am seeing things very well of late. Lots of winning action still left as we hit the 2nd half of the season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAY

4 Unit Play. Take #534 LSU -5 over Florida (1:00p.m., Saturday February 21 CBS)
Its no secret that the Florida Gators have been struggling as of late. Yes the Gators won their last game at home against Vandy 50-47 but before that game the Gators dropped 4-straight games. The Tigers are 11-3 at home this season and the Tigers are looking for back-to-back wins, which this hasn’t, happen since last month. The Gators roster is depleted without studs like Frazier and Finney-Smith so I see the Tigers controlling the tempo and grabbing a much-needed home win over a conference rival. Florida is 2-10-1 ATS following a SU win and the Gators are 3-7 ATS against SEC Conference opponents.

3 Unit Play. Take #658 UC Davis -4 ½ over Hawaii (10:00p.m., Saturday February 21)
Have no clue on why this number dropped early this morning! UC Davis is a perfect 11-0 at home and its no secret Hawaii is a different team off the island. UC Davis will be looking for revenge since the Warriors beat them in Hawaii last month 84-76 so I see the Aggies returning the favor. Hawaii is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games while the Aggies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.

3 Unit Play. Take #665 Over 110 Colorado at Oregon St (10:00p.m., Saturday February 21 PAC-12)
I just can’t see the Oregon St Beavers throwing up another 37 point game at home. Yes the Beavers last home game they scored 37 points against the Utah Utes defense and I’m just happy the Buffs of Colorado don’t play the defense like Utah. Colorado defense is allowing 65ppg and if the Buffs control the tempo this game flies over but if the Beavers control the tempo my stomach will be in knots.

SATURDAY HBO BOXING – OTHER SPORTS

5 Unit Play. Take UNDER 7 ½ -155 Martin Murray vs Gennady Golovkin (HBO Boxing – Monte Carlo, Monaco-N)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

7-Unit Play. Take #534 LSU (-4.5) over Florida (1 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)
The Gators just suspended their current leading scorer and their leading rebounder, Dorian Finney-Smith. This year they’ve only had two guys averaging more than 10 points a game (Mike Frazier was the other) and now they are playing without either. That means their top scorer is a transfer from Rutgers that averages 8.1 points per game. We’ve successfully bet against Florida all season long because they suck. This is a bad, bad team and at no point this year have they shown that they were anything but a collection of random scrubs. LSU is definitely flaky enough to blow this game. They have erratic guard play themselves. But they are at home and they literally have the three best players on the floor on their team. They won by 18 in Gainesville already this year – winning outright as an 11-point underdog in a game and cashing one of our biggest tickets of the day back on Jan. 20 – and I don’t see much to stop them from a similar performance here. Whether they stink or not, whether they have a full roster or not, this is still Florida. And they have thrashed enough SEC teams to still get opponents blood going when they come to town. If LSU loses this game to what is essentially a third-string Florida team then Johnny Jones should be fired immediately and the program should be disbanded. Florida stinks. LSU doesn’t. The Tigers should take this one.

1-Unit Play. Take #548 Louisville (-8) over Miami (2 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)
Angry Louisville is the best Louisville. They are coming off an embarrassing second half at Syracuse and they just got suspended PG Chris Jones back. They are not going to be happy. Miami slept its way through the first half against Virginia Tech before turning on the jets for a blowout win. That’s back-to-back covers for them. But I still think this Miami team is trending downward overall. They have one of the shortest benches in the country and their starting five have all been playing ridiculous minutes. At some point that is going to wear you down. Louisville is aggressive and angry and they should be on the attack for 40 minutes. I think this game will be close going into the final eight minutes but then the Cardinals will drop the hammer.

1-Unit Play. Take #588 Charlotte (-13) over Southern Miss (5:30 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)
Charlotte is, by record, one of the three worst teams in Conference USA. But the only people that would think they are ones that are just checking the standings and not watching games or scoping box scores. Southern Miss is a horror show and one of the worst teams in the country. Charlotte is a decent team that just can’t get over the hump in close games. Their last three losses were to three of the best teams in the league – at UTEP, at Old Dominion, vs. Louisiana Tech – by an average of 3.3 points per game. Charlotte is 4-0 ATS and they aren’t as bad as they seem. USM’s last six losses have been by 26, 2, 10, 10, 11, and 15 points. The books have shaded this line but I still think Charlotte can get over the bar.

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 138.0 Auburn at Kentucky (7 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)
1-Unit Play. Take #599 Auburn (+25.5) over Kentucky (7 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)
I know Kentucky is dominant. But are they going to win by 35 in this one? They’ve let teams hang around all season long. Auburn has some guys that can make some shots. And when this game eventually does get to garbage time I think the Tigers have enough guys that can make baskets that they can keep it within 30. Auburn has done nothing but lose in SEC play this year. They can’t defend and they don’t play well together. But their two worst losses were by just 14 and 20 points. They are one of the most experienced teams in the country.

1-Unit Play. Take #530 Baylor (-8.5) over Kansas State (1 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)
I think Baylor is better than its record has shown lately. They played really well in their last two games but blew it in the second half. I think that they are due for a big win and I think that this line is deceptively high, almost begging someone to take Kansas State. K-State won’t be put off by Baylor’s attempts to pound the ball inside. But it could lead to foul trouble. And if Kansas State loses any big men to foul issues then the levy could break. The Wildcats have won just twice in the last month – both at home – and they just got run by 14 at TCU. Kansas State has Kansas on deck and I think things could line up for a blowout by revenge-minded Baylor.

2-Unit Play. Take #552 Duquesne (+8) over Dayton (2 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)
Dayton is a different team off its home floor and this game is 100 percent a trap for them. Duquesne can be spry on their home court. They beat George Washington by 16, beat George Mason, and only lost to St. Bonaventure by three in overtime and by six to VCU. Duquesne is coming off an embarrassing effort at LaSalle and Dayton is satisfied after three straight wins – two at home. The home team is 6-2 ATS and the underdog is 10-4 ATS in this series and the squads have split the last four meetings on this court. I can see Dayton winning this game but I don’t see a blowout.

1-Unit Play. Take #554 Texas (-2) over Iowa State (2 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)
Rick Barnes is an absolutely clown of a coach and this Texas team has been a disaster for most of conference play. But they played well against Oklahoma (before a vintage Barnes collapse, complete with deer-in-headlights look in the final minute). And I’m just going to play my famous Ferringo System play on an unranked team favored over a ranked team. Iowa State is clearly better and could win this one going away. But Texas needs this one a little bit more and the Cyclones are always a little suspect on the road because of their overreliance on the 3-ball.

3-Unit Play. Take #601 Virginia Tech (+13) over N.C. State (6 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)
I’m going to keep knocking with Virginia Tech. they’ve gotten lit up in their last two road games. But are they really going to lose three straight games by 15-plus? They suck. But are they really that bad? I don’t know. I’ve seen them play alright for stretches this year. N.C. State is a lot like Miami in that they tend to play up and down to their competition. I don’t see why the Wolfpack would be super-motivated for this game and they have a date with North Carolina coming up early next week. They just beat Louisville and they have UNC on deck so I can see them looking past Virginia Tech a bit. A nine- or 10-point win would accomplish all of N.C. State’s goals for this one so I just don’t know that this one will get into that 15- or 17-point range.

2-Unit Play. Take #603 California (+9.5) over Stanford (6:30 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)
I will admit that I was surprised by how well Stanford was playing into mid-January. But instead of getting out in front and anticipating a collapse I took a wait-and-see approach. They’ve lost four of five and this is more in line with what I expected from them. Cal is going the other way. They have won five of six and they have shown some gusto on the road. This is a rivalry game and this is just too many points for a rivalry game. Cal has enough guard play where I expect them to keep this one close. And Stanford isn’t some dominant force on the interior so I don’t expect them to pound the Bears into submission.
Note: The following are System Plays. I don’t divulge the secrets of my systems – or else everyone would do them! – and I won’t have write-ups on these games.

1-Unit Play. Take #540 Bowling Green (-2) over Buffalo (2 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)

1-Unit Play. Take #625 South Alabama (+10.5) over Georgia Southern (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)

1-Unit Play. Take #629 UL-Monroe (-2) over Arkansas State (8 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)

1-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #636 Georgetown (-8) over DePaul (8 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)

2-Unit Play. Take #637 UC-Santa Barbara (-6) over CS-Fullerton (8 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)

1-Unit Play. Take #650 Arizona (-14) over UCLA (9 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)

1-Unit Play. Take #658 UC-Davis (-4.5) over Hawaii (10 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)

2-Unit Play. Take #663 Portland (-4) over Pacific (10 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)

1-Unit Play. Take #665 Colorado (+3.5) over Oregon State (11 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)

1-Unit Play. Take #679 Eastern Washington (+2) over Northern Arizona (4 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)

1-Unit Play. Take #696 Chattanooga (-5) over E. Tennessee State (8 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)

1-Unit Play. Take #710 Sacramento State (-10.5) over North Dakota (10 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 21)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #518 St. John’s (-3.5) AND Take #665 Colorado (+8.5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INDIAN COWBOY

4-Unit Play. #601. Take Virginia Tech +13.5 over NC State (Saturday @ 6pm est)
We roll with Buzz Williams and his underdogs here on the road this evening against NC State. Whenever NC State has a look ahead they have a tendency to do just that and they have a big tilt with UNC on the docket in their next game. Plus, we like the fact that NC State comes off a big win against Louisville on the road winning 74-65 after they played Wake Forrest and Virginia very close. Note that State comes off a big win, classic let down spot and have UNC on the docket in their next game which makes this a difficult sandwich contest for them. Rather than stepping out heavily, we will make this a 4-unit selection as it is a positive to go up +1000 over the last 2 days and of course on a 15-9 and college run around +3200 with a winner here. Note that NC State is a strong offensive team but their defense is outside the top 100 and Virginia Tech is a hard to team to get up for given that they are is 10-16 for the season. But, bear in mind that Va Tech comes off ugly losses to Clemson and Miami and this is a game they will look to step up finally as they have no post-season in sight or realistic chance of doing anything in the post-season. This is their highlight of the season if you will. This team lost to Syracuse by 2, Wake Forrest by 3, a healthy Virginia by 3 at home and Williams has a tendency to get his guys up for big underdog games. Va Tech is still a team that is top 80 when it comes ot effective field goal percentage and look for them to hang tough here this evening. The Hokies are 6-1 ATS coming off an ATS loss and the Wolfpack are 2-6-1 ATS coming off a straight up win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE DAVIS

7-Unit Play. Take #570 Northern Iowa -17 over Bradley (Saturday, February 21st at 4:00 p.m.)
My spreadsheet has UNI winning this game by a final score of 75-50. The key components in this matchup are: home court advantage, current form, recent results, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, motivation Northern Iowa is one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about. They are playing their last weekend home game of the season and I look for a big effort out of them tonight. They are better than Bradley in every part of the game and they will blow them out tonight. UNI is great defensively and Bradley can’t throw it in the ocean from the beach. UNI ranks 16th in defensive efficiency while Bradley ranks 321st in offensive efficiency. Uh, that is not good for the visiting team. I could bore you with several more examples of UNI’s dominance over Bradley but I will just say this: this game will get ugly from the opening tip and it will carry through the entire game.

Northern Iowa defeated Bradley by 11 points earlier in the season on the road. However, that margin of victory is a bit deceiving. They dominated Bradley and led by 23 points with 13 minutes left in the game. Needless to say UNI took their foot off of the gas pedal down the stretch. That won’t happen today at home. I look for them to continue to build on the lead throughout the game. Blowout City!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA
*7 North Dakota State -4

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Sheep

582 George Mason +6 $400
693 Oral Roberts +9 $400
626 Georgia Southern -9 $400

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GREG SMITH

Stanford -9

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Derek Hayes

2* Georgia

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Larry Ness

10* over georgia/alabama

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Johnnydsports

Pittsburgh
Florida
Texas

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Power Play

Gonzaga -6.5

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Sheep
Added Play:


Weber State +9 $400

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nfac



#518) under 139 shall/stj ($400)
#524) south carolina -2 (-120) ($500)
#582) george mason +6 ($400)
#617) st bonny +2 (-120) ($400)
#693) oral roberts +9 (-115) ($500)