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6 Unit Play. #546 Take Oklahoma -5.5 over Kansas (4 pm ESPN)
7 Unit Play. #629 Take Iowa State -3.5 over TCU (8:30 pm ESPN News) Big XII Game of the Year
Write-ups
6 Unit Play. #546 Take Oklahoma -5.5 over Kansas (4 pm ESPN) I will not mention the Kansas players names (bad luck on Tuesday) but the Jayhawks are undermanned for this game against a team that is angry about their performance Monday night. Kansas has already clinched the Big 12 Regular Season Title and thus this game does not mean anything to them. They would need a miracle to move up to the No. 1 line come selection Sunday and they are pretty much entrenched as a No. 2 seed. Oklahoma blew a big lead against Iowa State on Monday night and this is a game they need to get back on track. OU is still playing for a No. 2 seed and they will send out their seniors in style. Kansas has not covered a game in their last five games. Oklahoma is 20-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 29 Saturday games.
7 Unit Play. #629 Take Iowa State -3.5 over TCU (8:30 pm ESPN News) Big XII Game of the Year. I believe that the Cyclones have underachieved a little bit in a very tough conference but I fully expect them to close out the season with two straight wins. Iowa State is riding high all week after coming back from a 20 point deficit to beat Oklahoma on Monday. TCU has improved this season but they are not ready to compete in the Big 12 where they are just 4-13. That includes a 7 game losing streak in January. Granted they have hung tough in many of these games but eventually losing takes its toll on them and they are ready for this season to end. The Cyclones won the first meeting of the season by 17 points and TCU is just 1-10 against ranked opponents this season. Iowa State has won all five meetings conference match-ups with TCU by double digits. Throw in the fact that TCU does not play on campus this season due to renovations to Daniel-Meyer Coliseum and thus much of their home court edge is lost since this game is being played at Wilkerson-Greines Activity Center. Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. I see Iowa State winning this game and that should mean the odds greatly favor us in covering the spread.
Taking you to upstate New York, to the town of Allegany, which is next door to Olean, or just a snowball or two away from Buffalo, and using St. Bonaventure -9 points over Fordham. Nothing against Allegany, Olean or Buffalo, but no one wants to go up there and play the Bonnies, especially since they have CRUSHED the last two times out. St. Bonny just beat Saint Louis, 64-48, and the prior game, SMOKED Duquesne, 92-75. The very same Duquesne team that just rocked Fordham, 81-66, this past Wednesday night. And this flock of Rams from NYC are VERY meek on the road, losing 10 of the last 11, so gimme half a Benjamin on the Bonnies.
And for your wagering pleasure, we also like Providence -2 points over Butler, Oklahoma -4 points against Kansas, Richmond -15 points over Saint Louis and Wyoming +2.5 points against New Mexico. Throw another half a Benj on each of these games.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)'s Picks For College Basketball
3* Unit Play. Take #664 BYU -12 ½ over Santa Clara (11:25p.m., Saturday March 7 ESPN2)
7* Unit Play. Take #667 Over 119 ½ Cleveland St at Valparaiso (9:30p.m., Saturday March 7 ESPNU)
Davidson @ DUQUESNE
#614 DUQUESNE +8 -110 over Davidson
7:00 pm EST. The betting public is paying attention to this sport right now more than any other sport in preparation for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Because of that, there are some market overreactions and we trust we've found another one here. You see, Davidson was on the bubble this past Thursday when they were a -3 point choice at home over VCU. That game was not only senior day, but the Wildcats tournament life was on the line. Well, Davidson brought it big time and buried the Rams 82-55 in a game that was seen on ESPN by millions. From the opening tip to the final buzzer, the Wildcats dominated play in what was their biggest regular season game and victory in years. That win got them into the Dance and they still might be celebrating. Not only is this a huge letdown spot for the visitors, you will pay a premium to wager on them here after that convincing and resounding win over a team that is as highly regarded as VCU.
Meanwhile, the Dukes of Duquesne are just 6-11 in the A-10 and 11-17 overall and this one has an eerily similar feel to an earlier conference game that the Dukes were involved in. You see, Dayton is the conference leader that buried the Dukes on January 3, 81-55. In the rematch game back at Duquesne on February 21, the Dukes were an 8-point home dog and defeated the Flyers by 10. Well, these Dukes lost at Davidson back on February 21 by the exact same 26 points that they lost at Dayton by and now they're getting the same amount of points that Dayton was spotting when they lost by 10. The Dukes have won four straight at home and have not lost by this margin at home in 11 straight. They are a sound offensive team that ranks high (top-91 or better) in every key offensive category. Davidson didn't have any trouble in the first meeting with that aforementioned 95-69 drubbing of the Dukes but like many other teams, Duquesne is so much better at home and they catch the complacent Wildcats in an extremely unfavorable spot here.
NOTE: Lots of different lines showing up on this one so our recommendation would be to take nothing lower than +7. In other words, +7 or more.
Our Pick
#614 DUQUESNE +8 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Xavier @ CREIGHTON
#550 CREIGHTON +128 over Xavier
2:00 PM EST. Xavier has a lot of good wins this year and so Joe Lunardi's “Bracketology” has them as a sure thing to get into the Dance. The Musketeers are 8-9 in the conference and 18-12 overall. Xavier will not improve or hurt their conference tournament seed no matter what happens in this game but we're not as convinced as Lunardi that they're a “sure thing” to get in. We're not even convinced that the Musketeers are better than Creighton. Xavier has lost two straight, one at home to Villanova by 12 and at St. John's, which is no big deal, but they've also lost to Seton Hall recently and are just 4-5 over its past nine games. In fact, Xavier has lost twice to the Johnnies recently. When the Musketeers hosted these Bluejays on February 4, they were a 13-point choice and lost outright in OT. Many folks attribute that to Xavier overlooking the Bluejays but we're not buying that argument for a second. Xavier has had trouble with plenty of teams this year, which includes straight up losses to Long Beach and UTEP. They do some things well but they are very flawed in many areas in which the Bluejays exploited once and can definitely do again here.
We mentioned yesterday how the market puts so much emphasis on W/L records and once again we'll look to take advantage of that market flaw. Creighton is 4-13 in the Big East and 13-17 overall. That record has them perceived as a weaker team but nothing could be further from the truth. Creighton isn't going to the dance but a few breaks and they'd be in the conversation and would be one of those teams that nobody wants to play. We all knew the losses of Doug McDermott and Grant Gibbs were going to have a big impact on Creighton. Coupled with a host of key injuries, the Bluejays didn't stand much of a chance in the ultra-competitive Big East. It wasn't until late January that they recorded their first conference win, but since then we've seen positive signs. They beat St. John's and Xavier and got a nice spread-covering win over Marquette. And it's important to note that while Creighton's conference record says 4-13, the Bluejays were right there in a number of games, with five losses that came down to the final possession, not to mention a recent four-point loss to a powerful Villanova squad. This is a well-coached, veteran Creighton squad that has under the radar talent. The Bluejays can potentially knock the Musketeers out of the Big Dance or at least force the committee to have a second look at them. That provides plenty of motivation for this host against a team that is cracking under the pressure of being on the bubble. Creighton outright.
Our Pick
#550 CREIGHTON +128 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.56)
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