3-7-15

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vegaslinereader

St Mary's-6.5

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DHAYES2

1* Over 128.5 Wash/Utah

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VegasButcher - NBA 180 – 140 @ 56% for +26.0 Units

New Orleans Pelicans +1

While both teams are on a b2b here, Memphis is in a much more difficult spot. Besides it being a b2b, it’s also Memphis’ 4th game in the last 5 days, without having any consecutive games in the same city. Basically, Grizzlies have had to travel for each of these 4 games (actually they’ve had to travel for each of their first 9 games (including today) since the ASB and by the end of this road-trip, Memphis would have played 12 straight games without staying at the same city for more than 1 game). By comparison the Pelicans are playing their 3rd straight home game and unlike Memphis’ 4in5 spot, this is New Orleans’ 3rd game in 4 nights. Basically they’ve been at home during this 5-day stretch and will play 1 less game than the Grizzlies. That’s a big difference in this matchup and I don’t think is properly accounted for in this line. Yesterday, Memphis shot 1 for 11 from the 3PT line, allowed the Lakers 44 PIP, and actually got outrebounded by 2. Against a team like the Lakers, that’s actually a big deal. Memphis was able to come back from a 10-point deficit late in the 4th quarter and win the game due to the 33 to 9 FT-attempt discrepancy, but overall they played like a ‘fatigued’ team. The Pelicans rank 9th in defensive FT-rate allowed, and with this game being on the road for Memphis, I’d expect the FT-attempts to be much more even tonight (or favor the home team). In addition, there was a report that Conley was really struggling in yesterdays game with fatigue/illness, as his head coach indicated: “Anytime he got over five, six minutes he had his hands on his knees. He’s gassed. He’s exhausted.” Bottom line is that I expect the younger and fresher Pelicans to have an advantage in this game from the physical standpoint. Besides, Memphis hasn’t done too well against this team since Anthony Davis joined the league 3 years ago - especially against the spread. Pelicans are 8-2 ATS against Grizzlies overall and 5-0 ATS against them when playing at home during this stretch. Coming off a bad loss and needing to accumulate wins in order to bypass OKC for the 8th seed, I absolutely love this spot for the Pelicans at home tonight.

Minnesota Timberwolves +5

It’s interesting to read about the “gloom and doom” that has descended on the Blazers following the season-ending injury to Wesley Matthews. One reported talked about watching Paul Allen (owner) leave his court-side seat to go into the locker room to check on Matthews, something that the reporter has never seen Allen do before, even when Oden, Roy, and Fernandez sustained serious in-game injuries. Another reporter described Matthews as a player that “….makes this team.” And all of them have indicated pretty much that Matthews is the ‘heart and soul’ of this Blazers team. Not Aldridge, not Batum, and not Lillard – Matthews is the ‘heart and soul’ of the team. Let that sink in for a second. The ‘heart and soul’ of this Blazers team isn’t one of the ‘best players’ on the team, but a guy who has the biggest drive, work ethic, and leadership. Bottom line is that this is not just a big loss, this is also a very demoralizing one. Here’s what some of his teammates had to say after the news broke:

LaMarcus Aldridge – “It’s tough, man. He’s the heart and soul of this team, he brings a lot to this team. I’ve played with him seven, eight years now, so not having him out there is going to be tough.”

Damian Lillard – “Wes plays harder than anybody on our team. It’s hard for our team to think about not having him out there because of everything he brings to this team and the person that he is.”

Statistically, Matthews ranked 14th out of all shooting guards in defensive Real Plus-Minus ratings, 9th in overall Real Plus-Minus ratings, and 7th in WAR. Clearly the loss of Matthews is going to be huge, especially in the short-term. The Blazers have to play tonight, only 2 days removed from that injury, and based on some of the quotes from players the shock of what happened hasn’t worn off just yet. You have to remember, this is a very young team, and if they felt that they were serious contenders in the West before, some serious doubt is probably creeping up now. We’ll see how the Blazers handle themselves from the emotional standpoint today, but I’m assuming it’s going to be really tough. From a physical standpoint, this isn’t the easiest spot either. Blazers are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights (day off yesterday) and the last few games haven’t been easy. They barely pulled out a miracle win against the Clippers in OT on Wednesday and then of course lost Matthews against Dallas on Thursday. I think tonight is going to be a really tough game for this squad both emotionally and physically. On the other hand, Minnesota has had 2 full days off and will be playing their 4th straight home game. They’re 0-3 so far at home on this stand and will be going on a 4-game roadie right after this. I’d expect this team to bring maximum effort tonight, especially after that embarrassing home loss to the rejuvenated Nuggets squad. I know the Wolves are on a 4-game losing streak but the first 3 losses were all by single-digits to playoff teams like CHI, MEM, and LAC. The DEN loss was bad, but I expect this team to regroup and play hard tonight. Besides, I believe the Bookmakers expect the same thing. Pure line-value is with the Blazers tonight, similar to how it was with the Bulls in yesterday’s game. Bookmakers very rarely make these kinds of mistakes, which makes me believe that they also expect a very competitive game here. I expect a flat performance by Portland tonight and will back the home underdog with confidence in this one.

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PITTVIPER SPORTS
Saturday CBK (Pre-7pm Games)
ROT# 602 – 6:30pm – Washington State +2.5 (-105)
TEASER [4.5 points – TIES WIN] = Washington State +7 / Louisville +7 (-105)

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SHARP WINS. Arizona -14.5. St bonaventura -9.5 Oklahoma-5. N eastern -6.5. NBA Portland under 198 Hawks over 193 Memphis under 188

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OTL SPORTS. 25* Oklahoma -5 St bonnie -10. Arizona -14,5 20* nc wilm -4.5. 15* s franc +17

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Gordons
$300 under tulane 120

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MATT RIVERS
Blank Check – Cal Santa Barbara

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Chris James Sports

Temple
Oklahoma
North Carolina

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Vegas linereader final

Western Kentucky+9
Mississippi-4

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GP from Vegas

oklahoma
dayton
texas st under
temple
iowa st

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ANTHONY REDD

80 DIME – Virginia Cavaliers

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JEFF BENTON

50 DIME – UNDER – Virginia vs. Louisville

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SCOTT DELANEY

30 DIME – Murray St

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CRAIG DAVIS

40 DIME – Memphis Grizzzlies