3-10-15

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ATSwins Lockclub

B-ball
5 BYU +7.5

Hockey
4 Phil/ovr 5.5

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FOUR VALUES FUND

All start times are Eastern

European Cup Soccer: Real Madrid -2 goals -107 (1 unit) (3:45 pm start time)

NBA: Nets/Pelicans – Over 193 points -110 (1 unit) (7 pm start time)

NHL: Rangers ML -105 (1 unit) (7 pm start time)
NHL: Wild PL-1.5 goals +135 (1 unit) (8 pm start time)

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Fat Jack

BC
VT
San Antonio Over
660 Utah

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Frank Patron



20,000 Unit Move




Valparaiso Crusaders -3.5 over Wisconsin Green Bay

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Ken Thomson

674 Valpo -2.5

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ALAN BOSTON

Penn +4
Green Bay +4
Bethune +3

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PITTVIPER SPORTS

Tuesday CBK
ROT# 664 – 7:30pm – Pennsylvania +4 (-101)
ROT# 679 – 8:30pm – North Carolina A&T [ML] (-112)
ROT# 675 – 9:30pm – Grambling State +10.5 (-102)

Tuesday NHL
ROT# 53 – 7:05pm – NY Rangers -102
ROT# 53 – 7:05pm – NY Rangers/NY Islanders – OVER 5.5 (+107)
ROT# 56 – 7:05pm – Columbus/Carolina – UNDER 5.5 (-155)
ROT# 59 – 7:35pm – Boston -118
ROT# 64 – 8:05pm – St. Louis -185

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SB Professor Original NBA Picks

No plays today

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Wunderdog Sports

Complimentary NHL Pick for March 10th, 2015

Game: Los Angeles Kings (65) @ Colorado Avalanche (66)
Time: Tuesday 03/10 9:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Los Angeles -127 (moneyline) at SportsBetting

Los Angeles hasn't played since Saturday and ranks #8 in the NHL in goals allowed. The Kings are on a 10-4 run, 5-2 on the road. Los Angeles is 2-0-1 since a three-game slide but needed more from Saturday's 1-0 overtime loss to Pittsburgh as they are in the playoff hunt. They catch a break here as Colorado is #23 in the NHL in goals scored, #22 in goals allowed and #29 on the power play. The Avalanche is 3-10 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. LA goalie Jonathan Quick has a 1.30 goals-against average during his three-game winning streak against the Avs. LA has owned this series too, at 5-1 in the last six meetings, so grab the champs and play the LA Kings.

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No Joke NHL

New York Islanders ML -110
Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 (+220)
Tampa Bay Lightning ML Even Money

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Brian Cosart NHL

TB even
BOS -120
NJ/MIN under 5 -125

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ANDREW RELISH

Brooklyn Nets -3

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Diamond Dog Sports

NBA

#658: Mavericks: +3.5 (-110) (1*)


NCAAB

#679: NC A&T: -1.5 (-110) (1.5*)

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BigAL
3* Gonzaga -7.5

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VegasButcher - NBA

Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Nets are on a 3-game home losing streak and are playing the last game of their home stand prior to hitting the road for a “four spot”. They’re also a few games back of the 8th seed now so the ‘motivation’ to play well should be pretty high here. This will be Brooklyn’s 2nd game since making lineup changes (BroLo & Young joining the starting lineup) so I would expect the team to play better together. In any case, this is a rematch between these two teams from 02/25. Nets were a -2.5 road favorite in that game with neither team being in an unusual ‘fatigue spot’. For the rematch, the Nets are once again listed as a -2.5 point favorite….at home though. The obvious question, why is there no adjustment to the spread? First thing to note is that Anthony Davis missed the first meeting. By far the most crucial player on the Pelicans roster. He’s probably worth 5-6 points all by himself if not more, as there really is no apparent replacement on the roster for him. If Davis is truly worth 6 points let’s say, then the reason for ‘no adjustment’ for home-court is understandable. But there are a couple of additional factors in play here. First, the Pelicans will be without Tyreke Evans. Remember, they’re already without Holiday and Anderson, so the loss of Evans is even bigger than it could seem at first. Once Holiday went down, Evans was the de facto PG for the team and has thrived in that role. Without him that job will go to Norris Cole, a turnover-prone player who can’t shoot. Norris has a PER of 9.9 with a TS% (True Shooting % - advanced metric that takes into account all shots like 2PT, 3PT, and FT’s, to calculate a player’s efficiency at shooting the ball) of 46% this year. By comparison Evans is at 17.2 PER and 50% TS% on the year. Both players have a TO-rate of around 11%, but Evans’ usage rate of 26% is 30% higher than Norris’ usage rate of 20%. Once Norris increases his ‘usage rate’ tonight, I’d expect his TO-rate expectation to be much higher as well. In any case, my point here is that we have a huge downgrade from Evans to Norris running the point for tonight’s game. Second factor of course is that the Pelicans are playing the 2nd of a b2b and 4th game in 5 nights. The previous 3 games were all very close contests, all with a single-digit margin of victory. To make matters even more difficult, Pelicans’ last two games of this run are on the road, which of course requires travel. Brooklyn had a day off yesterday and like I’ve mentioned earlier, they’ve been home since March 1st. Final factor, which relates to the ‘fatigue’ one, is that Anthony Davis has logged a tremendous amount of minutes since coming back from his injury. Here are his minutes in the last 4 games: 42, 42, 40, 41. That’s a ton, and for the Pelicans to win tonight’s game he’ll once again be asked to play this many if not more. Expect Davis’ usage-rate to go up without Evans, but I would also expect a drop in efficiency due to fatigue. I know Brooklyn is 0-3 ATS in the last 3 games but they were 6-1 ATS in the previous 7. I think tonight is a great spot for them to get back on track to getting an ATS-cover for their backers.

Detroit Pistons -3.5

When a bad team like the Lakers is catching so few points, it’s always worth to see if you can fade them. I think in this scenario you can. Detroit has a couple of key advantages. First, their duo of Monroe and Drummond is way too big and too good for the Lakers to handle. LA is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league and they’re terrible at defending the rim ranking 8th in FG% allowed within 3-feet of the basket. Monroe and Drummond should feast in this one. Second factor in Detroit’s favor is that Reggie Jackson has a great shot at getting unleashed tonight. He has struggled with his efficiency lately but will be facing a Lakers team that allows opponent PG’s a PER of 20.5 (remember, 15 is average), which is the worst mark in the league. Jackson, Monroe, and Drummond are way better than any player that the Lakes have and that’s a big enough of an advantage to consider Detroit tonight. I also like how Van Gundy gave his team a bit of a break after their last game. According to a report in the Detroit Free Press, Van Gundy didn’t grill his guys after the latest defeat nor did he force them to run drills. “Today, we just lifted weights and some guys are doing cardio work and stuff like that,” Van Gundy told reporters. “I was just trying to get away from basketball. I didn’t show them film, didn’t do any of that. Hopefully, we’ll come into the walk-through tomorrow a little bit recharged and ready to go.” This is great to hear as everyone knows that the NBA-season is a real grind. Nothing wrong with ‘recharging batteries’ once in a while and hopefully his players respond. I think they will tonight against a terrible Lakers squad.