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Prior to a 3-game road losing streak, Washington won 5 in a row and 7 of their last 9, while winning their last 5 at home by an average margin of +10 PPG. They’ll take on a Pacers team that is on a 6-game losing streak and is really struggling right now. Rodney Stuckey, an offensive spark-plug off the bench is out, and the Wizards have the size to neutralize Indiana’s bigs in the paint. The real threat offensively will be George Hill but he’ll have to spend a lot of energy defending John Wall on the other end. The Wizards are sound defensively and are excellent on the defensive boards. In addition, Indiana is not a type of a team to get to the FT-line much. I just don’t see a lot of easy buckets out of the Pacers in this one and without Stuckey providing an offensive-punch, I like Washington’s chances of winning and covering this one.
Brooklyn Nets +3
Since the Nets reinserted Lopez and Young into the starting lineup they’ve won 4 of their last 6 games with the two losses coming to ‘playoff’ teams in CLE and BOS. Today they’ll take on a struggling Hornets squad in a critical game for both teams as both trail Boston by a few games for the 8th playoff spot in the East. Charlotte is coming off a challenging 5-game road-trip with their only win coming @ Minnesota. They’re also dealing with a critical injury to Al Jefferson who has tweaked his knee and will have to play with discomfort the rest of the season. Banging in the paint against Lopez/Plumlee won’t be easy and I expect the Nets to have an advantage there. In addition, Brooklyn should have an advantage with their depth in this one. Mo Williams is the only reliable bench player that the Hornets have while Brooklyn has guys like Jack, Bogdanovic, Anderson, and Plumlee who are all capable producers. Charlotte beat Brooklyn recently on the road but that was when the Nets were still featuring strange starting lineups and inconsistent rotations. This is a ‘different’ team now and I believe they’re a better squad than the Hornets in tonight’s matchup.
Chicago Bulls -2.5
While the Bulls are getting healthier (Butler + Gibson), Toronto continues to suffer from a significant injury to their PG Kyle Lowry. He came back yesterday, only to play 11 minutes and go back down with the same ‘back’ issue. The Raptors put together a valiant effort in their 2nd half comeback but it wasn’t enough. Now playing on a b2b and 3rd in 4 spot, they’ll take on a Bulls team that is bigger, stronger, and has much better depth. These teams met less than a week ago and Chicago dominated the matchup to a tune of 108 – 92 victory at home. They held Toronto to 38% from the field, outrebounded them by +11, had a 76% AST-rate, and dominated the Points in the Paint for a +28 margin. Butler didn’t play in that one and Gibson only logged 11 minutes in his first game back off an injury. Tonight, Chicago will be healthier and more rested and I expect the same result.
Boston Celtics -5.5
The Heat are coming off an extremely ‘deflating’ game as they got outscored 24 to 9 in the 4th quarter, squandered a 16-point 4th quarter lead, and proceeded to make numerous mistakes in the final 10 seconds of the game which led to a buzzer beating 3-pointer by the Bucks. Losing in such a manner is tough. Losing a game while allowing your key guys play some heavy minutes is even tougher, as it puts Heat in a difficult predicament tonight. They’ll be without Whiteside, are missing Bosh already, and Andersen got hurt yesterday putting his status in doubt for tonight. That means that Miami will roll out a small lineup with old-man Haslem and inefficient Beasley patrolling the paint. That’s an issue against a Celtics team that ranks 4th in pace and is getting Isaiah Thomas back for this one. Third straight road game for Miami and playing in a fatigue spot on a b2b and 3in4 tonight. I like Boston’s chances in this one.
New Orleans Pelicans -1
Dwight Howard is back tonight but that’s not necessarily a ‘great’ thing in the short-term. Remember, this Houston squad played 25+ games without Howard now and it will take some ‘getting used to’ to playing with him. Rockets are without Beverley and Jones which are much more significant factors than Howard’s return. Beverley is one of the best ‘on the ball’ defenders while Jones has the size to matchup with Davis. Without these two guys I expect Davis and Evans to dominate their particular matchups. New Orleans is already 2-0 against Houston this year and they’re 7-2 ATS against them in the last few years. Coming off 3-straight road losses and getting a few bodies back tonight (Asik + Evans), this is as close to a ‘must win’ game as there is for this team if they want a shot at the post-season. I like the spot to do just that at home.
Denver Nuggets -11.5
It’s interesting how firing a hated coach could revitalize a team, as the Nuggets are 7-5 SU in the last 12 games and 9-3 ATS. Denver is just playing ball now and having fun doing so, as the results speak for themselves. Coming off a 2-day break they’ll be very fresh for tonight’s contest against a Sixers squad on a b2b and 3in4 spot. Philly played tough yesterday losing by 1 point, but allowing 20 offensive boards, 48 PIP, and turning the ball over 20 times. In Denver’s last game they registered 18 offensive boards, scored 52 PIP, and forced 18 TO’s. Philly shot 49% last night keeping the game @ Sacramento close, but this least efficient offense very rarely has such a good shooting display. Expect their shooting to regress, while Denver to play an up-tempo and efficient game resulting in a blow-out in this one.
Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5
While both teams are on a b2b and 3in4 spot, I have to give the younger legs of the Thunder a bit of an advantage in this ‘fatigue’ spot. Besides, Russell Westbrook has a very easy matchup in this one as he’ll be going up against Tony Parker whose defense has been atrocious this year. With Parker on the court, the Spurs allow 7 more points per 100 possessions than when he’s off. I expect Westbrook to go off tonight and to single-handedly keep this game close.
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