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4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 132.5 – Arizona vs Wisconsin (Saturday, March 28th at 6:05 p.m.) My spreadsheet has Arizona winning this game by a final score of 71-70.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 136.5 – Notre Dame vs Kentucky (Saturday, March 28th at 8:45 p.m.) My spreadsheet has Kentucky winning this game by a final score of 81-70.
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League Date Time (ET) Matchup Pick
NBA Mar 28 ,2015 10:05p [509] Denver Nuggets
[510] Portland Trail Blazers Denver Nuggets +9-105
at 5dimes
The Nuggets are a much improved team since Melvin Hunt replaced clueless Brian Shaw. Denver is 8-6 under Hunt and can prove dangerous in the right spot.
This is a good spot for the Nuggets.
Both Denver and Portland are off excellent victories last night. But the Trail Blazers carry a much higher fatigue rating. This marks their fourth game in five days and first home game following consecutive road wins against the Jazz and Suns.
Portland has a weak bench - made weaker by the absence of Wesley Matthews - and plays again on Monday at home against Phoenix while the Nuggets won't play again until Wednesday. That should ensure an all-out effort by the Nuggets.
Yes, motivation can be a factor for non-playoff teams such as Denver, but the Nuggets have triple revenge incentive. They are a much different team now than the previous three times the Trail Blazers playe d and defeated them.
Ty Lawson must play well for the Nuggets to be competitive. There are strong indications that is going to happen. Lawson has been performing well putting up 18 points and nine assists in an easy victory against the Jazz Friday night. This is what Hunt said about Lawson following that win, "The kid is playing some of the best basketball I've seen him play. That speed is special. It's a special weapon."
Lawson may be the quickest point guard in the NBA. He's caused Portland problems in the past averaging 24.7 points and nine assists in the first three meetings. Portland has an excellent point guard, too, in Damian Lillard. But Lillard has logged major minutes this season and the four games in five days factor could affect him a great deal against Lawson.
Under Hunt, the Nuggets have gone 7-1 ATS the past eight times following a straight-up victory. They also have covered in five of their last seven road matchups.
Triple-revenge is at stake here as the Nuggets try to avoid getting swept on the season. Denver is coming into this game playing their 3rd one in 4 nights. The last two games have been blowouts though and I think fatigue won’t be as big of an issue here. Besides, the Nuggets have better depth than Portland, who have lost a lot of it when Matthews went down. Just like Denver, Portland is also in a ‘fatigue spot’. They’re actually playing their 4th game in 5 nights with all 3 previous games being fairly close (even the loss to GSW was close until the late 2nd half). Portland’s starters had to exert a lot more energy than Denver’s players last night, and I think fatigue will be a bigger concern for the home team here. Denver is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 on the road. I think we’ll see a close game tonight and I’ll grab the points.
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