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Great Owl coming off of a frustrating double loss (“owlch!!) last nite on ULM (game -2 and FH -1). As far as (defending) my losing ULM picks are concerned, all I will say is that (i) ULM was a great situational play, as pointed out in my supporting WU, and (ii) ULM has been a real CASH COW for me this hoops season (before their final 2 games), and has made MUCH MORE money for me and my clients TY than they have lost for us.
Looking for my typical strong bounce back tonite after last nite's frustrations, and starting out by playing Stanford on the FH line, but not for the game (see below), and after watching the FH, will decide if whether or not to play Miami for the 2H, all as explained in my below supporting WU. I’m also looking at the Over in the Evansville- NAU game, as EV’s offense has been on fire lately, especially their guard DJ Balentine, who is having a monster tournament - Balentine is averaging 30 points per game in the event, and he’s been on fire with his long range shooting, connecting on a sensational 18/30 beyond the arc in the four CIT tourney games to date, and scored 28 points and made 63 percent of his shots in Tuesday's win over Tennessee Martin. We will likely at least tease E Ville to the Over, even if we decide not to play either EV -8 or the Over “straight,” at current lines of EV -8 and 141.4/142.
Today’s college hoops tournament plays (so far)
Game #1- NAU (Northern Arizona) at Evansville, starts approx. 7:00 eastern
Current consensus lines – E Ville -8, total 141.5 or 142
Plays – So far only a pending “live” play on E Ville -2 for 3 units (as part of 2 team, 5.5 point teaser with ULM +3.5 last nite, which covered)
Game #2- Stanford vs Miami at MSG in NYC, starts approx. 9:00 eastern
Current consensus lines – Stanford -2 and 135 total, ML -135 or 140, FH Stanford -1 and -125 or 130 ML, and 63 total
Picks
Stanford/FH for 3 units if FH lines are -1 and -125 ML (2 units at -125 and one unit at -1) or 2 units at -1 if FH lines are -1 and -130> ML, pass at > -1
2H – possible 2H play on Miami, depending on 2H line, how FH plays out and the “eye test” (what I observe in watching FH)
Support for Stanford FH play and my betting attack strategy for playing this game
Stanford (23-13) was fortunate to get out of their last game with a win (and ATS cover) over a scrappy ODU team, after the way they looked awesome in building an early 21 point FH lead, with ODU hoisting up one “brick” after another, and then totally “pissing away” that huge lead (they actually trailed 50-47 at one point in the 2H). They are a talented, veteran team, with a solid senior trio which combined for 55 of the team's 67 points in their win last game over Old Dominion, led by captain Chasson Randle, who averages 19.4 points per game, but is hardly a one-man show for Stanford, as guard Anthony Brown (14.9) and center Stefan Nastic (13.5) also average in double figures. Brown is 6-of-9 from 3-point range in the last two games and has made 44.3 percent from the behind the arc on the season. But they are also a flawed team, especially away from the "friendly confines" of Maples Pavilion in Palo Alto, CA, and have been incredibly inconsistent on the road lately, not only from game to game, but even w/in the same game, and like Miami, has failed to play a solid FULL game in its last few appearances – similar to Tues nite’s choppy performance against ODU, in their blowout loss to Utah in Pac 12 tournament, they actually led at the half.
Bottom line, they’ll have to play well for the entire game to beat Miami (25-12) tonite, as the Hurricanes continue to win on the defensive end, as they have captured seven of eight while holding their opponents to 62.3 points during that stretch. However, Miami is w/o their center (7'0" Tonye Jekiri, who averages 8.7 points and 10 rebounds per game, and has had 51 blocked shots TY), who is OUT for tonight’s game against Stanford, after having suffered a concussion on Tuesday night in the game against Temple. And not having Jekiri could put Canes at a major disadvantage tonite, as the team's next best rebounder is McClellan (4.7), and no one else on the squad has more than 17 blocked shots. And as usual, Miami is also still w/o their best shooter, Angel Rodriguez, still on the bench with a hand/wrist injury to his shooting hand. Miami has also been guilty of not playing a “full game” in their last two wins (at Richmond and Tues nite at MSG over Temple), playing HORRIBLY in the first half of both, before turning it on in the 2H and looking like a completely different team. In fact, looking at the FH and 2H performance in their last 3 away games vs A teams (at Richmond and vs ND and Temple at neutral sites) shows us two different Miami teams - "bad Miami" was a putrid 0-3 ATS vs the FH line, with a HUGE average HT deficit of 12 points, but won two of those 3 games SU with big 2H comebacks, thanks to "good Miami" going 3-0 ATS vs the 2H line in those same 3 games, with an average 2H scoring edge of +11 points.
So based on the above support, we’re playing Stanford for the first half, and then (assuming the FH plays out as I expect, and Stanford leads at HT), might come back with a strong 2H play on Miami, at a better (adjusted) line than the pre-game line of +2, depending on how Miami is playing w/o their big center, rebounding machine and shot blocker, Jekiri.
Great Owl coming off of a frustrating double loss (“owlch!!) last nite on ULM (game -2 and FH -1). As far as (defending) my losing ULM picks are concerned, all I will say is that (i) ULM was a great situational play, as pointed out in my supporting WU, and (ii) ULM has been a real CASH COW for me this hoops season (before their final 2 games), and has made MUCH MORE money for me and my clients TY than they have lost for us.
Looking for my typical strong bounce back tonite after last nite's frustrations, and starting out by playing Stanford on the FH line, but not for the game (see below), and after watching the FH, will decide if whether or not to play Miami for the 2H, all as explained in my below supporting WU. I’m also looking at the Over in the Evansville- NAU game, as EV’s offense has been on fire lately, especially their guard DJ Balentine, who is having a monster tournament - Balentine is averaging 30 points per game in the event, and he’s been on fire with his long range shooting, connecting on a sensational 18/30 beyond the arc in the four CIT tourney games to date, and scored 28 points and made 63 percent of his shots in Tuesday's win over Tennessee Martin. We will likely at least tease E Ville to the Over, even if we decide not to play either EV -8 or the Over “straight,” at current lines of EV -8 and 141.4/142.
Today’s college hoops tournament plays (so far)
Game #1- NAU (Northern Arizona) at Evansville, starts approx. 7:00 eastern
Current consensus lines – E Ville -8, total 141.5 or 142
Plays – So far only a pending “live” play on E Ville -2 for 3 units (as part of 2 team, 5.5 point teaser with ULM +3.5 last nite, which covered)
Game #2- Stanford vs Miami at MSG in NYC, starts approx. 9:00 eastern
Current consensus lines – Stanford -2 and 135 total, ML -135 or 140, FH Stanford -1 and -125 or 130 ML, and 63 total
Picks
Stanford/FH for 3 units if FH lines are -1 and -125 ML (2 units at -125 and one unit at -1) or 2 units at -1 if FH lines are -1 and -130> ML, pass at > -1
2H – possible 2H play on Miami, depending on 2H line, how FH plays out and the “eye test” (what I observe in watching FH)
Support for Stanford FH play and my betting attack strategy for playing this game
Stanford (23-13) was fortunate to get out of their last game with a win (and ATS cover) over a scrappy ODU team, after the way they looked awesome in building an early 21 point FH lead, with ODU hoisting up one “brick” after another, and then totally “pissing away” that huge lead (they actually trailed 50-47 at one point in the 2H). They are a talented, veteran team, with a solid senior trio which combined for 55 of the team's 67 points in their win last game over Old Dominion, led by captain Chasson Randle, who averages 19.4 points per game, but is hardly a one-man show for Stanford, as guard Anthony Brown (14.9) and center Stefan Nastic (13.5) also average in double figures. Brown is 6-of-9 from 3-point range in the last two games and has made 44.3 percent from the behind the arc on the season. But they are also a flawed team, especially away from the "friendly confines" of Maples Pavilion in Palo Alto, CA, and have been incredibly inconsistent on the road lately, not only from game to game, but even w/in the same game, and like Miami, has failed to play a solid FULL game in its last few appearances – similar to Tues nite’s choppy performance against ODU, in their blowout loss to Utah in Pac 12 tournament, they actually led at the half.
Bottom line, they’ll have to play well for the entire game to beat Miami (25-12) tonite, as the Hurricanes continue to win on the defensive end, as they have captured seven of eight while holding their opponents to 62.3 points during that stretch. However, Miami is w/o their center (7'0" Tonye Jekiri, who averages 8.7 points and 10 rebounds per game, and has had 51 blocked shots TY), who is OUT for tonight’s game against Stanford, after having suffered a concussion on Tuesday night in the game against Temple. And not having Jekiri could put Canes at a major disadvantage tonite, as the team's next best rebounder is McClellan (4.7), and no one else on the squad has more than 17 blocked shots. And as usual, Miami is also still w/o their best shooter, Angel Rodriguez, still on the bench with a hand/wrist injury to his shooting hand. Miami has also been guilty of not playing a “full game” in their last two wins (at Richmond and Tues nite at MSG over Temple), playing HORRIBLY in the first half of both, before turning it on in the 2H and looking like a completely different team. In fact, looking at the FH and 2H performance in their last 3 away games vs A teams (at Richmond and vs ND and Temple at neutral sites) shows us two different Miami teams - "bad Miami" was a putrid 0-3 ATS vs the FH line, with a HUGE average HT deficit of 12 points, but won two of those 3 games SU with big 2H comebacks, thanks to "good Miami" going 3-0 ATS vs the 2H line in those same 3 games, with an average 2H scoring edge of +11 points.
So based on the above support, we’re playing Stanford for the first half, and then (assuming the FH plays out as I expect, and Stanford leads at HT), might come back with a strong 2H play on Miami, at a better (adjusted) line than the pre-game line of +2, depending on how Miami is playing w/o their big center, rebounding machine and shot blocker, Jekiri.
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