4-7-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Rangers won their last four games, outscoring foes 16-8.
-- Senators won three of their last four games.
-- Blues won their last three games, scoring 13 goals. Jets won eight of their last 11.
-- Chicago won four of its last five games.
-- Flames won three of their last four games.

Cold teams
-- Devils lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Islanders lost eight of their last eleven games. Flyers lost ten of last fourteen.
-- Penguins lost five of their last seven games.
-- Hurricanes lost four of their last five games. Detroit lost 12 of its last 17.
-- Minnesota lost its last three games, scoring four goals.
-- Arizona lost 11 of its last 14 games.
-- Avalanche lost six of their last eight games. Nashville lost 11 of its last 17 games.
-- Kings lost last three road games, outscored 10-3. Oilers lost last three games overall, outscored by total of 17-3.

Series records
-- Rangers won their last five games with New Jersey.
-- Islanders won their last four games with Philly.
-- Penguins won five of last seven games with Ottawa.
-- Red Wings won four of last five games with Carolina.
-- Blues won seven of last eight games with Winnipeg.
-- Blackhawks won five of last six games with Minnesota.
-- Flames won their last four games with Arizona.
-- Predators won three of last four games with Colorado.
-- Kings won nine of their last ten games with Edmonton.

Totals
-- Seven of last nine Ranger games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Islander-Philly games went over.
-- Four of last five Pittsburgh-Ottawa games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Detroit-Carolina games stayed under.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Winnipeg games.
-- Under is 4-1-2 in last seven Minnesota games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Calgary games.
-- Five of last seven Nashville-Colorado games went over.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six LA-Edmonton games.

Back-to-back
-- Rangers are 4-0 on road if they played night before.
-- Carolina is 3-5 on road if it played the night before.
-- Winnipeg is 3-3 if it played the night before.
-- Minnesota is 1-4 on road if it was at home night before.
-- Kings are 1-4 on road if they played the night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

-- Hawks won four of their last six games (4-1 last five HF).
-- Spurs won/covered their last seven games (5-0-1 last six AF).
-- Warriors won 11 of their last 12 games (5-1 last six AF). Pelicans won four of their last five games (10-2 HU).
-- Clippers won 10 of last 11 games, covered six of last seven.

Cold Teams
-- Charlotte is 0-5 vs spread in game following last five wins (11-6 last 17 AU). Heat lost seven of last nine games (4-0 last four HF).
-- Suns lost five of their last six games (6-2 last eight AU).
-- Thunder lost five of their last six games (7-0 HU).
-- Minnesota lost its last six games (!-5 vs spread). Sacramento lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread).
-- Lakers won/covered once in their last six games.

Series Records
-- Heat won eight of last ten games with Charlotte.
-- Suns won seven of last ten games with Atlanta.
-- Thunder lost three of last four games with San Antonio.
-- Warriors won their last ten games with New Orleans.
-- Kings won five of last seven games with Minnesota.
-- Clippers won their last six games with the Lakers.

Totals
-- Seven of last ten Charlotte-Miami games went over.
-- Under is 12-2 in last fourteen Phoenix games; last four Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Last three Spur-Thunder games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Warrior-Pelican games stayed under.
-- Last three Minnesota-Sacramento games went over.
-- Three of last four Laker-Clipper games stayed under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

National League
Braves @ Marlins
Wood is 2-1, 1.82 in his last five starts;under is 6-1-1 in his last eight starts.

Latos was 1-2, 6.00 in his last three starts for Cincinnati; over is 3-1-1 in his last five outings. .

Marlins are 6-5 in last eleven games with Atlanta; under is 4-1-1 in last six.

Cardinals @ Cubs
Lynn is 0-2, 2.56 in his last six starts, four of which stayed under total.

Arrieta is 3-0, 1.27 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.

St Louis won five of last seven games with Chicago; last four stayed under.

Rockies @ Brewers
Lyles is 1-3, 5.44 in his last eight starts; three of his last three on road stayed under the total.

Garza is 1-0, 1.84 in his last three starts, four of his last six stayed under.

Brewers won six of last eight series games; over is 9-1-1 in last 11 in series.

Giants @ Diamondbacks
Vogelsong is 0-3, 6.91 in his last six starts, four of which went over. Peavy and Cain are hurt now; SF's rotation is messed up.

de la Rosa was 0-4, 6.28 in his last six starts for Boston.

Giants won seven of last eight games with Arizona; seven of last 11 in series stayed under the total.

Padres @ Dodgers
Ross is 2-4, 4.11 in his last six starts, five of which stayed under.

Greinke is 4-0, 2.00 in his last seven starts; six of his last nine went over.

Padres lost six of last eight games in LA; four of last five series games went over the total.

American League
Orioles @ Rays
Chen is 0-3, 6.00 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Karns is 1-2, 6.38 in five MLB starts, four of which went over the total.

Baltimore is 5-3 in its last seven games with Tampa Bay; six of last ten series games went over the total.

Rangers @ A's
Lewis is 1-3, 4.64 in his last five starts; three of last four went over.

Hahn was 0-1, 6.06 in his last three starts for San Diego; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven starts.

Oakland lost five of last eight games with Texas; over is 6-2-1 in last nine series games.

Angels @ Mariners
Wilson was 0-2, 12.27 in his last three starts LY, twice getting KO'd in first innings; five of his last seven starts went over the total.

Paxton is 1-3, 5.33 in his last five starts, four of which stayed under.

Angels lost last five games with Seattle; five of last six games in series stayed under the total.

Umpires
obviously, these numbers go back to last year
Atl-Mia-- Home side won 19 of last 22 Diaz games.
StL-Chi-- Under is 4-1-3 in last eight Wegner games.
Col-Mil-- Seven of last eight Iassogna games stayed under.
SF-Az-- Favorites won 10 of last 11 Cooper games.
SD-LA-- Five of last seven Carlson games stayed under.

Balt-TB-- Nine of last twelve Hickox games stayed under.
Tex-A's-- Visitor won five of last seven Eddings games.
LAA-Sea-- Four of last five Kulpa games stayed under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Nationals on Monday and likes Connecticut on Tuesday.

The deficit is 838 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | LA LAKERS at LA CLIPPERS
Play On - Road teams (LA LAKERS) revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins
75-37 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.0% | 34.3 units )
14-9 this year. ( 60.9% | 4.1 units )

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at NEW ORLEANS
Play On - Any team vs the money line (GOLDEN STATE) an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half
66-32 since 1997. ( 67.3% | 31.3 units )
6-2 this year. ( 75.0% | 2.5 units )

NBA | PHOENIX at ATLANTA
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns NHL


7* Detroit

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
San Francisco Giants -136 over Arizona Diamondbacks
(System Record: 1-0)
Overall Record: 1-0

Hockey Crusher
to come
(System Record: 90-3, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 90-70-7

Basketball Crusher
New Orleans Pelicans +4 over Golden StateWarriors
(System Record: 75-1, lost last game)
Overall Record: 75-76-4

Soccer Crusher
Alajuelense + Montreal Impact OVER 2
This match is happening in Concacaf
(System Record: 735-25, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 735-606-110

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Seattle Mariners -129 over LA Angels
Milwaukee Brewers -155 over Colorado
San Diego Padres +146 over LA Dodgers


Hockey
to come


Basketball
Atlanta Hawks + Phoenix Suns OVER 204
Minnesota Timberwolves +10 over Sacramento Kings
Los Angeles Lakers +17 over LAClippers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo’s sour on Wiscy

Hondo was in the black for a few hours Monday when Big Bad Bart and the Mighty Metamucils shut down the Nationals but tumbled back into the red as a result of Wisconsin’s crash in Indy.

Tuesday night: With the deficit at 20 pappases, Mr. Aitch expects the Orioles to get past the Rays by the hair of their Cheny Chen Chen — 10 units.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

2* Cubs -119

2* Rockies +142

2* Padres +146

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3* Seattle Mariners

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* NBA – Heat -3.5
100* MLB – Over 8 – Brewers/Rockies
50* MLB – Marlins -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportsbook Financial

MLB
Finance Club (20-6 in 2014-2015)
$500 – Seattle Mariners -135
$300 – St Louis Cardinals +115
$300 – Colorado Rockies 1st 5 Innings +150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE SCANDALIATO

3* NEW ORLEANS PELICANS +4.5 at home versus golden state warriors.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday, April 7, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Welcome to my first “Five To Follow” story of the 2015 baseball season, where I will recommend five games per day with day-before opening lines to hopefully get you an early betting advantage either through pitching or hitting trends, possible stars sitting out on getaway days or where injuries could play a big factor in the result or line — some opening lines could be TBA because of injury, and you usually won’t see an early total for games at Wrigley Field because of the unpredictability of the wind.. You can look for this story previewing games every Tuesday-Sunday (Mondays are usually the slowest days of the week).

Braves at Marlins (-123, 7)

Is it possible to be shocked yet not by a deal? I’m speaking of the Braves’ trade on Sunday in sending outfielder Melvin (B.J.) Upton and stellar closer Craig Kimbrel to San Diego for outfielders Carlos Quentin and Cameron Maybin, plus two minor leaguers and a draft pick. I’m pretty surprised the Braves found a taker for Upton’s terrible contract and I have no idea why the Padres would take him considering they already have too many outfielders — yes, even after trading two of them. The Padres take on $80.35 million in guaranteed salaries to Kimbrel and Upton. Atlanta is now in full rebuilding mode. Most believe the Braves did get the better of this deal, however, and the team is expected to designate Quentin for assignment. Excellent young lefty Alex Wood starts for the Braves against new Marlin Mat Latos, acquired this offseason from Cincinnati. Wood had a 1.92 ERA over his final 11 starts in 2014. Latos, interestingly, attended the first-ever Marlins game as a kid in 1993.

Key trends: Atlanta is 1-6 in Wood’s past seven road starts. Miami was 1-6 in its final seven games last season against a lefty. The “over/under” has gone over in just one of Wood’s past six against Miami.

Early lean: Atlanta’s offense is going to be terrible all season. So go under often — and certainly here.



Orioles at Rays (+103, 8.5)

The Rays rotation has been decimated by injury — plus closer Jake McGee has begun the season on the disabled list — so they will turn to Nathan Karns in Game 2 of this series. Karns has made just five big-league starts in his career, two of those coming as a late-season call-up last year with Tampa Bay. Only a few Orioles have ever faced him. Chris Davis is 2-for-2 with a homer. So is shortstop J.J. Hardy, but he’s on the disabled list. He’s due to return on April 11. It’s lefty Wei-Yin Chen for Baltimore. He is coming off his best season in the majors, going 16-6 with a 3.54 ERA in 31 games. Chen was 1-1 with a 3.67 ERA in five starts against the Rays in 2014. James Loney is 4-for-13 off him with two doubles. Evan Longoria is 7-for-24 with three RBIs.

Key trends: Baltimore is 1-4 in Chen’s past five on the road. The over is 4-1 in his past five at the Rays.

Early lean: Orioles and over.



Angels at Mariners (-132, 7.5)

I expect these teams to battle for the AL West lead all season, although I projected Seattle to win it if you read my team-by-team previews. Lefty C.J. Wilson gets the call for Los Angeles, and he seems to be regressing. He won 13 games last year but had a 4.51 ERA that was his worst since 2008 while with Texas. Wilson walked an American League-leading 85 batters in 175 2/3 innings. He was 1-2 with a 3.42 ERA in four starts vs. Seattle. Wilson eats Kyle Seager’s lunch as Seager is just 3-for-33 with 15 strikeouts career against him. New Mariner Nelson Cruz is 4-for-10 with a homer off Wilson. Young lefty James Paxton starts for Seattle. Paxton, who struggled this spring, is 2-1 with a 2.59 ERA in four games against the Halos. Mike Trout is 2-for-10 with four strikeouts off Paxton.

Key trends: The Angels are 3-13 in Wilson’s past 16 on the road. The Mariners are 6-1 in Paxton’s past seven at home. The under is 6-1 in Wilson’s past seven vs. Seattle.

Early lean: Mariners and under.



Cardinals at Cubs (TBA)

These are the only two teams that didn’t play Monday. St. Louis opened the season Sunday night at Wrigley Field with a 3-0 win behind Adam Wainwright. Interestingly, new Cubs manager Joe Maddon batted his pitcher, Jon Lester, in the No. 8 spot. Not sure if that will be his daily routine or not. Jason Heyward had three hits in his St. Louis debut. Lance Lynn gets the call in Game 2. A left hip flexor strain limited Lynn to four spring starts. Lynn made just one start in 2014 against the Cubs and took a no-decision, allowing two earned in six innings. Starlin Castro is a career .333 hitter off Lynn. Anthony Rizzo is 5-for-22 with a homer and three RBIs. Jake Arrieta goes for Chicago. He was 1-0 with a 1.21 ERA in four starts last year vs. the Cards. Matt Adams is 5-for-11 with three RBIs off him.

Key trends: The Cards are 1-4 in Lynn’s past five on the road. Chicago is 4-0 in Arrieta’s past four at home. St. Louis is 7-3 in Lynn’s past 10 vs. the Cubs.

Early lean: Not really sure why no opening line here — usually it’s just the total that’s off the board at first for Wrigley games. I do think the construction there could be a reason because the conditions can be much different with no bleachers right now. I think Cubs win.



Rangers at A’s (-151, 7.5)

May want to take the under on the A’s for a while as they open the season without two-thirds of their outfield available with Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick on the DL. Crisp could miss up to two months. Reddick is scheduled to join the team this weekend. Colby Lewis starts for the Rangers. Lewis made two starts against the Athletics last season and was 1-0 with a 4.38 ERA. New A’s designated hitter Billy Butler is 3-for-9 with a homer, double and four RBIs off Lewis. Jesse Hahn, acquired from San Diego this offseason in the Derek Norris deal, starts for Oakland. He had a strong spring. Hahn has never faced the Rangers or any Texas hitters.

Key trends: Texas, oddly, has won just four of its past 21 on Tuesday. The under is 4-1 in Lewis’ past five vs. Oakland.

Early lean: A’s and over.