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This one is all about Greinke on the hill for the Dodgers as he has absolutely owned the Padres throughout his career and has been absolutely dominant during the month of April in recent seasons. The Dodgers struggled to get things going in their opener, before Jimmy Rollins busted the game open with a late HR. They shouldn't have to worry today as Greinke holds a career 4-0 record with a 1.84 ERA in 7 starts against the team. He has absolutely dominated Padres hitters in that span, allowing a sparkling 0.75 WHIP and holding Padre hitters to a woeful .161 BA. He should be able to keep the ball in the yard as he usually does when facing San Diego, as he has given up only 1 HR in 44 career innings against the Pads. This is a different Padres lineup though this year and there are 2 hitters who have owned him throughout their meetings against each other, as Clinton Barmes (7/16 2 2B; 2 RBI) and Upton (7/14 2 2B; HR; 2 RBI) are hitting a combined .467 against him. He has held the other Padres hitters in check though with Kemp (1/5); Myers (0/3); Amarista (2/10) and Venable (2/18) producing a paltry .139 average against him lifetime. As for April, Greinke has been dominant during the opening month over the L3 seasons, compiling a 9-1 mark with a 2.71 ERA in his L13 April starts. Add to that, but he has been absolutely dominant when pitching at Dodger Stadium both as a Dodger and in his career overall. Greinke holds a 19-4 lifetime record through nearly 200 IP and 30 GS there, with a tidy 2.31 ERA to go along with an even 1.00 WHIP and .219 BAA. He has been even more dominant when pitching there as a Dodger, posting 18 of his wins there in the L2 years as a member of the home team, while the Dodgers have won 5 straight home games with Greinke on the mound and posted a staggering 27-6 ML record in his 33 home starts in LA. How can you go against that?! Especially when you consider that although Tyson Ross hasn't fared all that bad against the Dodgers in his career, he has still failed to produce a positive result from any of his career meetings against them. Ross does have a 2.79 ERA in 8 career outings against LA, but a pathetic 0-5 lifetime mark against them to go with it. He was 0-4 against them in 4 starts in 2014, but again he posted a respectable 2.67 ERA in those games. Obviously then he has never won in Chavez Ravine either, holding an 0-3 mark in 4 career starts there with a very same 2.67 ERA in those games. He too has kept most of the LA hitters in check in their meetings, with Kendrick (1/10); Gonzalez (4/18 2B; RBI); Ellis (1/11) and Puig (3/14) combining for a lowly .170 average. The Dodgers have easily dispatched of their lesser division rival in recent meetings taking 5-of-the-L7 meetings between the two teams in LA and holding a 20-8 ML record in their L28 against each other. Still this is a fairly low price to jump on with Greinke here. Roll with the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for the home win tonight.......
1ST 5 INNINGS: OVER 4.5 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (-105)
This one just screams runs once again, as the two teams combined for 9 in the season opener, while combining to leave 16 MOB and 11 runners in scoring position with 2 out. Now these two lineups will get to tee off again on two pitchers that have struggled to fare well against their respective opponents. Surprisingly, Vogelsong has struggled against the lowly D'Backs in his career, picking up only 3 wins against 6 losses in 21 outings (15 GS) against the Arizona franchise, with a fairly lofty 4.45 ERA. He fared just about as well against them during last season's campaign, going 1-2 with a 4.40 ERA in 5 starts versus them. Going down the line, it's either hit or miss with this lineup, but Hill has crushed the righty for a near .500 average in 30 AB with 3 2B, 2 HR and 6 RBI. Goldschmidt struggled in the opener and may or may not tonight (we're hoping not) as he is hitting .250 in 24 career AB against Vogelsong, with 4 2B and 3 RBI himself as well. The 3-4-5 could be murderer's row for Vogelsong, because if one of those 2 guys don't take him deep, Trumbo (2/10 2B, HR, 4 RBI) might. Vogelsong has struggled to get his season off on the right foot in recent years as well, as between 2012-14, he has posted a paltry 1-4 record with a hefty 5.42 ERA during the season's opening month. For Arizona, De La Rosa doesn't have much experience facing these Giants hitters, but he didn't fare all that well in his 2 career outings (1 GS) against San Fran in his career. In that small sample size, he has yet to receive a decision while putting up a monster 6.35 ERA in those games. He has allowed an eye-popping .360 BAA to go along with a 1.94 WHIP and although he is coming in off a strong spring training in which he posted a 3.15 ERA in 20 innings, it'll be interesting to see how he responds to such a big start for the youngster. When these two teams face off, they usually get to the runs early, with 3 of their L4 meetings hitting for over 4.5 runs in their first 5 innings, and two of those games had Bumgarner on the hill. They would have also played to an Over at a 5-3 tilt in their L8 games against each other and they have hit for the Over 4.5 in the 1st 5 innings in 9 of their L12 games played at Chase Field. These two teams should be able to get a few runs across the board early here tonight. Go with the OVER in the 1ST 5 INNINGS in this one......
UNDER 7 ATLANTA BRAVES @ MIAMI MARLINS (-115)
These two teams just always seem to keep the total low when squaring off and we expect much the same here today. Dating back to last season, they have now totaled 7 R or less at a 5-1-3 clip in the L8 times they have met, also going 4-1-1 for the Under 7 in their L6 meetings in Miami. This game will most likely give us a little scare late as neither pitcher really dominates either team career-wise, but with both Wood and Latos on the mound, this one should see the runs tough to come by. Latos has pitched well against the Braves in his career, but holds a modest 3-3 record with a 3.28 ERA in 8 lifetime starts against them. He held them in check in his lone start against them last season, although they did pile on 9 H in 6 innings, but he escaped with only 1 ER allowed in getting the win. This will be his first start in his new and friendly home confines and he has always pitched well in Miami, holding a 1-0 record in 3 career starts, allowing 7 ER in 23 IP there for a tidy 2.74 ERA. He has over a 2/1 K-to-BB ration when pitching in the sunshine state, allowing a pesky .211 BAA and 1.04 WHIP. Three Braves hitters have rocked him in their careers though, with Freeman (9/15 3 2B, 6 RBI), Chris Johnson (8/20 3 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB) and Simmons (3/5 2B, BB) toasting him for an even .500 combined average in 40 lifetime AB against him. Other than that it's slim pickings for the Braves lineup, as Kelly Johnson (0/8); Quentin (0/8) and E. Young (3/12) a pathetic 3-for-28 (.107) in their 28 AB. Alex Wood is familiar with this Marlins lineup himself, facing Miami 5 times last season (4 GS) and tallying a 2-2 mark and respectable 3.07 ERA. He has kept the heart of the Marlins lineup completely under wraps in his career, holding Stanton (2/16 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 4 K); Hechavarria (3/17 6 K); Ozuna (2/12 2 RBI, 4 K); Prado (0/3) and Solano (3/12 RBI, 3 K) to a miserable .167 average and only 2 XBH, both by the $300 million dollar man. Expect this one to be much like yesterday - a display of 2 anemic offenses in the drizzling rain and empty seats. Take the UNDER in tonight's match-up.....
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