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INDIAN COWBOY (NBA PLAYOFFS) 8-Unit Play. #514. Take Portland Trailblazers -3 over Memphis Grizzlies (Monday @ 10:35pm est) We roll with Portland here at home against Memphis as they look to avoid getting swept in this series. A couple things here the least of which is that Portland will undoubtedly lose this series but it likely won’t be today. The public is on Memphis for the sweep but this contest reminds us of when the Bucks beat the Bulls at home to take it to at least another game on the road. Portland has struggled to win a game leading up to the playoffs and of course in the playoffs but they likely have 1 good game in them and that is today. We went with the 5-unit over on them yesterday as we figured if there was ever a game they go over it is this one – similar to the Mavs/Rockets who took it to a game 5 as well after being down 0-3. Look for Portland to really push the pace in this game and if you are Memphis would you rather win this series here on the road or go back home and win it. Today Portland plays for some pride here and after seeing other teams avoid getting swept, look for them to really step up here as a ballclub and play well, push the pace and likely win this contest at home. Portland being favored here says a lot as if Memphis was truly expected to do well, they would be favored by -1 or -2 in this situation. The Grizzlies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring a 100 or more points in their previous game, this is a good public fade, and Portland saves face here to win one game before going on the road at Memphis and losing. But this team did pick up a great deal of confidence in their last contest scoring at a sound pace which is much more than they did in the first two games. We like Portland here by about 6-8 points this evening.
MLB Game: New York Mets (951) @ Miami Marlins (952)
Time: Monday 04/27 7:10 PM Eastern
Pick: New York +111 (moneyline)
The Mets are off to a torid start at 14-5 and have already proven they can beat the Marlins, having swept them once already this season. The starting pitching matchup favors Miami, but I don’t think the Marlins have the bats to exploit Gee, and I really like the Mets’ bullpen over Miami’s. The Marlins bullpen has posted a 4.96 ERA at home this season (compared to New York’s 2.02 on the road). Miami is averaging just 3.9 runs per game and .312 OBP in their home gaems this season, and they have gone just 5-10 vs. RHP so far. Dating back to last season, New York is 31-21 on the road in expected close games (line of -125 to +125). And Gee is 25-19 as a road underdog. Take the Mets here.
Seattle is sending Taijuan Walker to the mound, who is coming off a pretty solid outing, his first ‘good’ start of the year. It wasn’t perfect (he gave up 4 BB’s) but he did register 8 K’s and threw a season-high 102 pitches, after throwing 77 and 76 in the previous two starts. By comparison Gallardo is coming off his worst start, where he allowed 5 runs (3 earned). I expect him to bounce-back while I think Walker comes back down to earth here. Both starters have strong K-rates this season (23% for Gallardo and 21% for Walker) but Walker’s BB-rate of 15% is 3X Gallardo’s 5% mark. In addition, Walker has a 29% LD-rate and a 4.9 SIERA, marks that indicate that teams are hitting him fairly hard so far this season. He’s gotten rocked in his two road starts allowing 14 ER’s in 7.1 innings of work, and now he’s pitching away from home again tonight. Ranges aren’t a great team either but they are at home and have a better starter on the mound. My model has this one at -136 odds. I’ll grab the 20+ cents of value with the home team in this one.
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