5-7-15

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Dave Malinsky

NHL Play Tampa Bay -1.5 (+190) over Montreal

The Lightning have owns the Canadiens this year as they have won all 8 games played. Last night Tampa didn't play well, but won the game anyway. The Canadiens really looked dejected after that game and Tampa should be more focused tonight and win the game easily.

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7 Unit Side Play · [955] Cincinnati Reds
The Killer Move Thu May 7th, 2015 7:05pm EDT

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Dave Cokin

Astros -108 (McHugh/Santiago)
Not the best time to be on the Astros off the wrong way sweep against Texas. Their offense has gone to sleep and the Halos are hitting, with Pujols livening up a lineup changer. But too many qualifiers here to ignore. McHugh with the fairly substantial metrics advantage over Santiago. And what could be a major advantage in the bullpen if it's close late. Astros pen is very well rested. Angels main two guys, Street and Smith, have each worked back to back nights. Looks to me like a game the Angels would have to win early, and I'll take my chances that won't happen against McHugh. Price here is a decent enough indicator, so I'll lay the very small number with the Astros.

Diamondbacks +105 (Despaigne/De La Rosa)
Great result for Arizona on Wednesday, as they take two easy wins at Colorado where the bullpen wasn't extended at all, plus they hit it great. Rubby De La Rosa has been better than that 5.40 ERA indicates. He did not pitch well last outing, so a little concern there, but he's got a sweet BB/K ratio and I think he's a little undervalued right now. Odrisamer Despaigne did a number on the Diamondbacks earlier this season, but he's got some major regression due with a stupid .159 BABIP so far. I'm convinced he's a smoke and mirrors guy with all the different angles and release points, and the more guys see him the less success he'll have. Padres aren't hitting at all right now, getting blanked in two straight games, so nice offensive momentum edge with the home team here. Diamondbacks at even or better are a good take.

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James Jones

3* MLB-Baltimore Orioles ML+119
2* MLB-Los Angeles Angels ML+100

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TheSportsCapper

THURSDAY

MLB BASEBALL

10* Play Kansas City -120 over Cleveland (MLB PLAY)

Cleveland has lost 13 of the last 18 games vs. division opponents and they have lost 38 of the last 57 games when playing as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Cleveland has lost 27 of the last 46 road games when the total posted is 7.5 runs or less and they have lost 16 of the last 25 games when pitching in the 1st half of the season.


10* Play Tampa Bay -160 over Texas (MLB PLAY)

Texas has lost 43 of the last 68 games vs. AL East Division Opponents and they have lost 75 of the last 123 games vs. right-handed starting pitchers. Texas has lost 50 of the last 79 games when playing as an underdog of +125 to +175 and they have lost 41 of the last 74 games when batting .240 or worse over the last ten games.

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5* Play Minnesota -110 over Oakland (MLB)
5* Play Houston -105 over Los Angeles Angels (MLB)

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BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY MLB BASEBALL


50* Play St. Louis -115 over Chicago Cubs

St. Louis is 17-4 vs. right-handed starting pitchers this season
St. Louis is 15-4 vs. division opponents this season


50* Play Houston -150 over LA Angels

Houston is 15-5 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs
Houston is 7-1 after having won six or seven of the last eight games


50* Play Minnesota -110 over Oakland

Oakland is 6-22 when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher
Oakland is 1-8 in day games this season

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

NHL HOCKEY


10* Play Tampa Bay -150 over Montreal (NHL)
10* Play Minnesota -125 over Chicago (NHL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Just a quick update to let you know that after Pittsburgh lost to Cincinnati yesterday, the RPI difference between the 2 teams is now greater than the .15 threshold coming into this {C} bet!


This is a situation that is very rare, but it has happened before. The last time it happened was last year on August 13th, 2014 when the MLB system bet on Atlanta started out as within the .15 RPI threshold, but by the time the {C} bet came around it dipped below the .15 RPI threshold. Atlanta ended up winning the game, and I recorded that win as an unofficial win afterward. I stated at the time the following:


"We'll record Atlanta's series as an unofficial win because I believe it is most sensible for us to label the official/unofficial nature of a series based on its largest potential bet size, rather than its smaller potential bet size."


Obviously this only applies to the original MLB betting system and not the Exterminator system, since each Exterminator bet is independent.



From my memory, the historical record in this scenario where the RPI threshold started out as within the RPI range but falls out of range by the time the {C} bet comes around is very good. Here's today's wager:


Pittsburgh {C} bet




Remember to bet on the +1.5 run line if it is offered, or the money line if it is not offered.


Make sure to observe the following Exterminator system guideline:


In the month of May: Bet normally on all the qualifying bets under the original MLB system. That means risking a flat 5% (conservative), 10% (average), or 15% (aggressive) of your bankroll depending on your risk level on every qualifying {A}, {B}, and {C} bet in the original MLB system. Again, you want to bet that same percentage amount for all the {A}, {B}, and {C} bets that qualified under the original system.


Also, please keep in mind the following filters of the system:


- Do not bet on a team whose road record winning percentage is in the bottom 10% in the league if they are playing on the road


- Play is only official if the RPI value of our team is no more than .015 lower than opponent's.


- Play is only official if our team is not playing against a top 2 highest ranked RPI team


Note that the system plays are official only when they pass all the filters above. If they fail to pass any filter, then the play is considered unofficial.


Regards,
Tony Chau, author of the best-selling Exterminator Betting System

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Angle Baseball

THURSDAY

Play San Francisco -120 over Miami (Top Play)

Tim Hudson has won 10 of the last 11 games vs. NL East Division Opponents and he has won 49 of the last 80 games when pitching in the month of May. Tim Hudson has won 74 of the last 107 games when pitching as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and he has won 28 of the last 44 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.


Play Tampa Bay -160 over Texas (Top Play)

Chris Archer has won 10 of the last 14 games when pitching as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has won 5 consecutive games when pitching on a Thursday. Chris Archer has won 30 of the last 50 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has an ERA of 1.93 over his last three starts.


Play St. Louis -120 over Chicago Cubs (Top Play)

John Lackey has won 29 of the last 45 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has won 25 of the last 36 home games. John Lackey has won 27 of the last 47 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has an ERA of 1.80 in home games this season.


Play Houston -105 over Los Angeles Angels (Top Play)

Hector Santiago has lost 7 of the last 8 games when pitching in the month of May and he has lost 16 of the last 26 games vs. division opponents. Hector Santiago has lost 19 of the last 29 home games and he has lost 26 of the last 41 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Angle

THURSDAY

NHL HOCKEY

Play Tampa Bay -150 over Montreal (NHL TOP PLAY)
Play Minnesota -120 over Chicago (NHL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

sports insights

CLE +105
BAL +125
FRIDAY NBA CHI -120

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Stephen Nover *top ticket

sf giants ml

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Chris Jordon

1000♦ National League

Game of the Year

SF Giants

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OC Dooley

2 Units Orioles / Yankees Over 8.5

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Dom The Dominators Picks

MLB Pirates-155 over Reds 6:05pm

MLB Astros-110 over Angels 9:05pm