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INDIAN COWBOY – MLB 7-Unit Play. #977. Take Tampa Bay -110 over Atlanta (Tuesday @ 7:10pm est) We like the fact that Tampa Bay comes off a 0-2 loss yesterday to Atlanta and will look to quickly bounce-back today. The Braves have won 2 out of 4 games this series and are up 2-1 as they head into Game 4. Look for Tampa Bay to really step-up here as this is a quality public fade to start with. Plus, Folty is overrated at this point and he is overvalued as well per our models. You have a pitcher who is 2-0 with a 4.24 era and that looks sexy. But bear in mind that era is a bit tilted given the offense the Braves have provided him. Folty has given up 8 runs in 17 innings, plus he is averaging more than a hit per inning as well along with 3.33 walks per game in addition. So you have more than a hit per inning and a walk every 2 innings on average which adds up to a lot of base runners – against a team who got shutout yesterday who is looking to bounce-back quickly against a pitcher that is definitely hittable. Combine that with Ramirez who is a relief pitcher turned starter who pitched a gem against the Yankees in his last start not yielding a run in 5 innings of work and you have a Rays team that is in a good spot here. Tampa Bay on the bounce-back, coming off getting shutout yesterday, Ramirez is a pitcher the Braves are not familiar with and who is getting his feet wet into the starter’s role building confidence against Folty who is overvalued against a hungry Rays team makes for a likely 2-3 run differential this evening as the Rays pick up the win in Atlanta. The Rays are 5-1 when facing a Interleague team against a right hander, the Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games as favorite as the line is usually right with the Rays and Atlanta is 3-7 following a win in their last 10 games as well.
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